Just goes to show how once again the online gaming space is literally an insanely small bubble that represents less than 1% of the real world.  All the negativity that so many were saying would hurt the system, is once again something the average person doesn't give a shit about.

At the end of the day, if people want to play the newest Mario Kart, the sequel to a game that sold close to 70 million copies they'll need to by the Switch 2.  If they want to play the upcoming 3D Donkey Kong, the next game from the 3D Mario team whose last game sold close to 30 million units, they'll need to buy a Switch 2.  Hell if they want to play the newest installments in most Nintendo franchises, which all exploded in popularity over the last decade, they'll need to buy a Switch 2. 

The argument for the Switch 2 not succeeding always relied on some weird thinking that would literally have to involve someone like Thanos snapping the Infinite Gauntlet to make everyone in the world suddenly decide they hate Nintendo games.  You don't go from Nintendo's long running series having their biggest success ever, to suddenly selling worse then ever, especially when hardly anyone else is even trying to make alternatives to Nintendo's games that might draw people attention to other systems.

And before anyone goes, but the Wii U, the Wii U was hurt the most by the 3DS which had many of the same titles, as well as the fact the 3DS had bigger exclusives like Pokemon and an actually mainline Animal Crossing game.  The 3DS and Wii U showed Nintendo that people weren't willing to buy 2 Nintendo systems at the same time anymore to get similar experiences, hence why they merged everything into one.  A Wii U situation is never going to happen to a Nintendo that has only one unified platform they need to support.

I expected the launch units to sell out.  The biggest issue with the Switch 2 is the pricing.  That's going to cut out the poorest of the existing Switch 1 userbase but there would certainly be 3.5 million people above them in the list that could easily afford the higher price and wouldn't care about paying it.  The real test is long term when the earlier adopters all have their Switch 2s.

But the system price is not unreasonable for the tech you get.  The bigger issue are the game prices.  So what will the attach rate be for games compared to the Switch 1?  If the games cost more, but a person's gaming budget doesn't change, they'll buy less games.  Nintendo might be ready to declare the $80 game experiment a success because of Mario Kart World but anyone who got the bundle paid only $50 for it.  Let's see how it works for an $80 game with no alternate price option at release.

I also would be curious to see how these figures break out by country.  Here in Canada the most expensive Switch 2 games are $115, which is insane.  Mario Kart World is $110 as the $115 price seems to be for Switch 2 versions of certain Switch 1 games.  So how are those games selling in that country or any country where the prices have shot up over a hundred bucks?  We don't think of our money as a conversion from USD.  $100 is $100.  So I think there's a possibility that Nintendo may be pushing right up to the limit for the American pricing but in other countries they may be pushing far past that.  There is a psychological element to something going from a two digit to three digit price.

Nintendo does deserve credit for having produced a good amount of these things.  The early adopters will all get one within the first few months, presumably without having to go through a scalper which is great.  Christmas will give us good numbers as those sales will have moved beyond the most devoted to the more general population.

I don't think anyone can make this claim yet. All sales so far have been early adopters, largely the kind who wait in line for hours at a midnight launch if they couldn't preorder.

If you're strictly referring to people who claimed Switch 2 would bomb, sure. That wasn't a likely scenario given Nintendo hasn't made any dramatic, glaring mistakes. However, like Ian and a lot of people have been saying, the bigger issue is game pricing. Whether all that negativity ultimately hurts the system is yet to be decided. In the current global economic climate including and especially long-term wage stagnation, I'm inclined to lean toward yes, game prices will hurt the system.

This isn't a Nintendo specific problem. Sony and Microsoft have raised prices on hardware that has been on the market for nearly half a decade. Across the board, everyone is going to feel the squeeze. The shortsighted view is that this is merely a $10 or $20 price hike depending on the game. The reality is that even $60 for a video game was getting hard to justify because everything else was getting more expensive. It's just the hierarchy of needs, can't spend recreationally when you have to pay rent and buy groceries. Even fast food isn't cheap anymore. 🤷‍♀️

>The 3DS and Wii U showed Nintendo that people weren't willing to buy 2 Nintendo systems at the same time anymore to get similar experiences,

I think this is a important thing that gets overlooked a lot.  Sure, we didn't get Mario Galaxy type 3D Mario game or a new giant 3D Zelda on the 3DS, but there were a lot of "core" Nintendo-style games on the 3DS - and at a lower price point.  The 3DS had a huge library of amazing games (boosted by the DS library).

In the olden days, you'd get something like Super Mario Bros. 3 on the home console for full price and Super Mario Land 2 on the black and white handheld for a lower price - even in the same genre of game with the same mascot, two fairly different styles of gameplay.  On the Wii U and 3DS, we got New Super Mario Bros. Wii U and New Super Mario Bros. 2.  Different games, to be sure, but we're they really different enough?

Coupled with the baggage Nintendo carried over from the Wii, the lack of third party support, the devistatingly poor online infrastructure, and Nintendo struggling with HD Dev cycles... the Wii U was doomed to fail.  And I own two. 🤣

Ultimately, if a system sells is going to come down to the games.  Does the system offer enough games with a unique enough experience that justifies throwing down the money to buy another new system.  It doesn't matter how powerful your system is, how good of a deal it is, what features it has... if the games aren't there, it's not going to succeed.

I think the Switch 2 will continue to receive ample third party support.  I do worry that Nintendo hasn't quite figured out how to deal with HD Dev cycles - the Switch's first party line up was definitely bolstered by 3DS and Wii U ports and upgrades.  I guess time will tell.

I do think the whole Game prices thing will affect game sales for the system due to various economic issues but at the same time, indie games are becoming an increasingly viable solution for more budget conscious customers and the Switch 2 is in a really good position to be able to handle those kinds of games, both because of its portability and increased power over the Switch, and because of the wide array of control options the system has over the competition.

I think the mouse deserves special mention because of how it opens the door for several neat indie games that have never really been feasible to bring to a console before because they are built around being played with a mouse. There's stuff like Pony Island and The Hex which are suddenly much more viable to bring to a console because there is now a console that has some sort of mouse input packed in.

If Nintendo can continue to play to their strength with indie games while ensuring that the eshop doesn't become a cesspool of ai hentai shopping simulator games again, then I believe that they will be able to provide options for more budget conscious customers.

I think any claim about the Switch 2's success, positive or negative, will be premature until a year or 2 from now. With rare exceptions, consoles sell out at launch, either through legitimate purchases or scalpers. Nintendo had abundant supply this time, so they had more to sell out. Even the Wii U & 3DS sold out at launch IIRC, and how'd that work out for both of them a year later?

As everyone else is saying, I think the dramatic increase in game prices is going to do serious damage long-term to all the console manufacturers. Nintendo pushing for everyone to adopt Game Key Cards also doesn't help matters. I'm not buying a Switch 2 until there is actually 1st party content worth buying. Never been much of a Mario Kart fan, so I'm waiting for the real games a year or 2 from now.

Yeah this is something many forget when talking about the Switch as well.  We know from actual sales data, the Switch was a beast when it came to indie sales.  Many indie devs would talk about how the Switch version of the games was either the best selling, or second best selling behind only Steam sales.  And these aren't just small games, quite a few of these indie titles were major hits.

Seriously look at the numbers for Stardew Valley

https://www.stardewvalley.net/press/

So yeah, indie games had massive success on the Switch and made up a pretty large amount of its overall library sales.  So many of the Switch userbase will still have access to a large library of lower priced games.

Plus when talking about Nintendo's own games that will be $10-20 more.  We know from data that most people only buy 2-3 games a year anyway.  So even if those 2-3 games are the newest Nintendo titles at full price, that's still only an increase of $30-60 more on gaming a year then they spent during the Switch 1 era.  To most people, that's not a huge increase.

Both consoles then had a massive drought after launch, with third party support ranging from bad on the 3DS, to non-existence on the Wii U.  The Switch 2 on the other hand has the complete opposite of that with it getting literally a major games in Donkey Kong a month later, as well as great third party support to fill in the gaps.  It's literally a night and day situation with the Switch 2 versus those systems.

Plus the 3DS with all its problems still managed to sell over 70 million units in the end so I'm not sure why you picked that as an example.  I'm sorry but using the 3DS as an example pretty much shows the worst case situation for the Switch 2 is around 100 million units which would still make it a very successful console.

I'll give Nintendo a little bit of rope about the 1st party games since they've gotten better at not announcing stuff until it's closer to launch (Metroid Prime 4 notwithstanding).  A 4 day window of sales doesn't say anything about the long-term success other than showing they're off to a good start and were able to fulfill most of the demand. 


Anecdotally, about half the people I know who are into gaming have gotten the Switch 2.  They're waiting for something worth playing on the system and have no interest in Donkey Kong.  My kids haven't touched the thing except for a few matches of family MarioKart World. 

Pessimist me still thinks because of pricing, lack of true Switch 2 exclusives, and its iterative nature will have sales be more of a slow burn.  I have a hard time recommending it to anyone outside of our slice of gaming, especially when a lot of my friends are rocking Steam Decks.  But maybe I'm discounting a deep hunger for more MarioKart.

"Plus the 3DS with all its problems still managed to sell over 70 million units in the end so I'm not sure why you picked that as an example.  I'm sorry but using the 3DS as an example pretty much shows the worst case situation for the Switch 2 is around 100 million units which would still make it a very successful console."

Yes, after Nintendo abandoned the Wii U altogether, put their entire development focus on the platform, and cut the price severely. Let's not pretend the 3DS was a roaring success in its first few years. Have people seriously forgotten the disaster that the 3DS was early on? The "Ambassador" program?

Hell yeah 3DS ambassador gang right here.