3DSWiiWiiU

Nintendo Expects Wii U to Sell 8.5 Million Units in Six Months

by Neal Ronaghan - October 30, 2013, 1:31 pm PDT
Total comments: 30 Source: http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/131030e.pdf

The Wii outsold the Wii U worldwide over the past six months. Down is up; up is down.

Nintendo expects Wii U system sales to total 9 million over the 2014 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2014. With sales only totaling 460,000 in the first half of the year, that means from October 1 to March 31, more than 8.5 million Wii Us must be sold to reach the company's expectations.

Additionally, over the course of the past six months, the Wii actually outsold the Wii U worldwide, with Nintendo's past home console selling 470,000 units during that time. The only region where the Wii U outsold the Wii was Japan.

In brighter news, the 3DS sold strongly worldwide, falling just shy of the 4 million units sold mark from April 2013 to September 2013. However, it is a drop-off from the 5 million units sold from April 2012 to September 2012. See below for the regional breakdown for each console:

Wii U Sales Wii Sales 3DS Sales DS/DSi Sales
North America 230,000 280,000 1,170,000 60,000
Japan 230,000 40,000 1,800,000 -0
Other -10,000 150,000 930,000 40,000
Total 460,000 470,000 3,890,000 100,000

Talkback

Leo13October 30, 2013

That would be awesome! I hope they're right, but I don't claim to be an expert.

ShyGuyOctober 30, 2013

They MAY be able to do 9 million units in total, 4.5 million units over the next six months would still be a challenge.

MiyamotoOctober 30, 2013

Nintendo's forecasts just shows how clueless and out of touch they are. Time for radical changes in the home console division methinks, starting with offering consumers the same choice and value for money as the competition. I honestly believe that it is ultimately cynicism and greed that has led Nintendo to their current position.



AdrockOctober 30, 2013

Quote from: Miyamoto

I honestly believe that it is ultimately cynicism and greed that has led Nintendo to their current position.

I'd say paranoia more than anything. They were so hush hush about the GamePad and Sony still found a way to copy the basic functionality. It's not the same, but all that secrecy ultimately did way more harm than good.

Anyway, I don't think Nintendo is reaching nine million units by April. Maybe if they had Mario Kart 8. Moving Donkey Kong to February spaces out the releases and at least gives them something between the Christmas season and the end of the fiscal year. My guess is seven (maybe eight) million units. Super Mario 3D World will give Wii U a nice boost as will the upcoming NSMBU/NSLU bundle (though it should have come with Nintendo Land too).

KITT 10KOctober 30, 2013

I don't know if they can reach they are saying but I hope that they can and do.

the asylumOctober 31, 2013

If Nintendo is this out of touch with reality, I guess this really means that new F-Zero is off the table for good

chilenozoOctober 31, 2013

The Nintendo 2014 forecast was made back in April 2013...they decided not to revise those numbers this time, but I think this is internal politics more than blind confidence.

Luigi DudeOctober 31, 2013

Quote from: ShyGuy

They MAY be able to do 9 million units in total, 4.5 million units over the next six months would still be a challenge.

Nintendo always get a huge boast in sales during the holiday so 4.5 million in that period is pretty doable.  Last year they sold 3 million Wii U during the holiday at $350 and the only major title being NSMB U.  Well this holiday the system will be $300 with NSMB U bundled with it, along with the Luigi DLC included.  Combined with more major titles like Mario 3D World, I think they'll be able to do at least 5 million during this time.

Kytim89October 31, 2013

A new pokemon game for the Wii U would get them atleast twelve million units sold.

nickmitchOctober 31, 2013

Quote from: Luigi

Quote from: ShyGuy

They MAY be able to do 9 million units in total, 4.5 million units over the next six months would still be a challenge.

Nintendo always get a huge boast in sales during the holiday so 4.5 million in that period is pretty doable.  Last year they sold 3 million Wii U during the holiday at $350 and the only major title being NSMB U.  Well this holiday the system will be $300 with NSMB U bundled with it, along with the Luigi DLC included.  Combined with more major titles like Mario 3D World, I think they'll be able to do at least 5 million during this time.

But this year they've got more competition. That's gotta be a factor. Plus, Nintendo is still having some marketing issues with the Wii U and the XB1 and PS4 are already starting to eat up the mindshare.

Pixelated PixiesOctober 31, 2013

Quote from: nickmitch

Quote from: Luigi

Quote from: ShyGuy

They MAY be able to do 9 million units in total, 4.5 million units over the next six months would still be a challenge.

Nintendo always get a huge boast in sales during the holiday so 4.5 million in that period is pretty doable.  Last year they sold 3 million Wii U during the holiday at $350 and the only major title being NSMB U.  Well this holiday the system will be $300 with NSMB U bundled with it, along with the Luigi DLC included.  Combined with more major titles like Mario 3D World, I think they'll be able to do at least 5 million during this time.

But this year they've got more competition. That's gotta be a factor. Plus, Nintendo is still having some marketing issues with the Wii U and the XB1 and PS4 are already starting to eat up the mindshare.


I have to agree with Shyguy and Nickmitch.

In a normal year, Nintendo might have met these sales expectations. Nintendo typically pull in great numbers during the holidays. This year, however, both Playstation 4 and Xbox One are expected to sell out at launch, and both companies are reported to have pretty solid production yields. That means there is going to be a bunch of new consoles out there for people to buy, which sucks a not insignificant amount of money out of the market.

I also think Nintendo already played the Mario card when they launched the system with NSMB U, and as a result many of those people who were interested in playing a Mario game already own a Wii U. The packing in of NSMB U, Luigi U, and the bundling of SM3DW will definitely boost sales, but as good as those games might be I don't see them bringing in the numbers that Nintendo need.

Whether or not Nintendo cares to acknowledge it, it is competing with Microsoft and Sony directly for people's dollars/pounds/euros, and the launch of these new consoles just means increased competition.

I of course hope Nintendo meets, and in fact exceeds, these expectations, but I'm dubious.

Luigi DudeOctober 31, 2013

Quote from: Pixelated

I have to agree with Shyguy and Nickmitch.

In a normal year, Nintendo might have met these sales expectations. Nintendo typically pull in great numbers during the holidays. This year, however, both Playstation 4 and Xbox One are expected to sell out at launch, and both companies are reported to have pretty solid production yields. That means there is going to be a bunch of new consoles out there for people to buy, which sucks a not insignificant amount of money out of the market.

I also think Nintendo already played the Mario card when they launched the system with NSMB U, and as a result many of those people who were interested in playing a Mario game already own a Wii U. The packing in of NSMB U, Luigi U, and the bundling of SM3DW will definitely boost sales, but as good as those games might be I don't see them bringing in the numbers that Nintendo need.

Whether or not Nintendo cares to acknowledge it, it is competing with Microsoft and Sony directly for people's dollars/pounds/euros, and the launch of these new consoles just means increased competition.

I of course hope Nintendo meets, and in fact exceeds, these expectations, but I'm dubious.

This thing is Microsoft and Sony are aiming at a completely different audience.  Nintendo's aiming at family's this holiday while Microsoft and Sony are going after the 18-34 year old male audience.  Not many families are going to spent over $400 to buy a PS4 or One when they can get a Wii U for at least $100 cheaper with two Mario games bundled, and other titles that appeal to kids like Mario 3D World, Sonic Lost World, and Mario & Sonic at the Olympics.


Plus the sales of Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7 and NSMB 2 show that most Mario fans haven't bought a Wii U yet.  Mario 3D Land had already sold over 8 million by the end of March while NSMB U was only over 2 million.  Now I'm not saying all 8 million current owners of 3D Land will go out and buy Wii U's by the end of March 2014, but it does show that's there's still a larger market that Nintendo's Wii U holiday lineup will appeal that haven't bought the system yet.  Might not be enough to get them to reach their goal, but I think it'll be enough to get them at least over 5 million more units sold.

AdrockOctober 31, 2013

I think PS4 or One will have strong launches, but outside of the early adopter crowd, I expect most people to stick with PS3/360 for a while. The new consoles won't drop off as much as Wii U did; I just don't see them carrying the launch momentum throughout 2014. It also doesn't help that Microsoft has struggled with their message and Sony has hit some hurdles with a couple delays and the DLNA thing.

That said, Nintendo's problem isn't Sony/Microsoft. If Nintendo doesn't hit their sales target, it will be because they dropped the ball so entirely during the first half of this year and playing catch up is never fun. In the long run, I think Nintendo will ultimately be fine with sales that make them money even if they are underwhelming (like GameCube). Recovering from their slow start just makes them look worse than they actually are.

broodwarsOctober 31, 2013

So Nintendo expects to sell 8.5 million Wii Us on the backs of a 3D Mario game (which never sell as well as their lazy 2D counterparts, no matter how good they are) and Donkey Kong Country Banana Slamma (I have no faith that Mario Kart is going to make it out in time). Yeah...good luck with that, especially with only Nintendo software to sell the Wii U (CoD and Assassin's Creed belong to the other consoles).  The only real question is whether Nintendo is going to be off on their projections by 1-2 million or 4-5 million.

BlackNMild2k1October 31, 2013

I'm guessing that this is another decimal point misplacement, on Nintendo's behalf this time.

It's nice to want things, but they must have meant .85 Million over the next 6 months right? :P

either way, good luck to them. If there is anyone that can pull a rabbit tied to a money tree out of a hat, it's gotta be Nintendo.

Quote from: broodwars

So Nintendo expects to sell 8.5 million Wii Us on the backs of a 3D Mario game (which never sell as well as their lazy 2D counterparts, no matter how good they are) and Donkey Kong Country Banana Slamma (I have no faith that Mario Kart is going to make it out in time). Yeah...good luck with that, especially with only Nintendo software to sell the Wii U (CoD and Assassin's Creed belong to the other consoles).  The only real question is whether Nintendo is going to be off on their projections by 1-2 million or 4-5 million.

Not saying it'll make a huge dent, but Wii Fit U and Wii Sports Club *might* help sell systems. Maybe.

The 8.5 million in six months claim is absurd to me. I could see 5 million, maybe. I'm rooting for Nintendo, but damn, I can't see this happening.

AdrockOctober 31, 2013

Oh, I read this wrong. I thought Nintendo wanted to sell nine million units total as in since launch, not the fiscal year. Yeah, I don't see that happening. I think seven or eight million lifetime sale by the end of the fiscal year is doable.

Leo13October 31, 2013

Don't forget Wii Fit/Wii Fit Plus combined Sold 43 million copies. Wii Fit U could be a smash hit if it's any good that might finally be what Nintendo needs.

ShyGuyOctober 31, 2013

They really need to be shoving Wii Fit U down people's throats.

Pixelated PixiesOctober 31, 2013

Quote from: Luigi

This thing is Microsoft and Sony are aiming at a completely different audience.  Nintendo's aiming at family's this holiday while Microsoft and Sony are going after the 18-34 year old male audience.  Not many families are going to spent over $400 to buy a PS4 or One when they can get a Wii U for at least $100 cheaper with two Mario games bundled, and other titles that appeal to kids like Mario 3D World, Sonic Lost World, and Mario & Sonic at the Olympics.


I don't think I agree that the market is as differentiated as you suggest, but let's say you're correct and the PS4 and XBone appeal to a completely different audience than the Wii U. I still think the launch of both consoles will have a noticeable detrimental impact on Wii U sales. Not only will the launch of these new consoles drown out Nintendo's messaging among 'casuals' this holiday season, they will also imbibe much of the disposable cash in the entertainment market generally.

Personally? I think the competition between Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft has never been more direct. The audience for gaming generally is expanding, but the audience for gaming focused consoles is only going to shrink. I do think Nintendo continue to be capable of offering something unique and interesting, but I highly doubt that more Mario is the answer.

That's just my take though. I ain't no analyst!

Mop it upNovember 02, 2013

If this wasn't miscommunication, then yeah, there's no way they're going to sell 8.5 million units over the next six months. I'm not even sure the Wii sold that well. However, 9 million in grand total by April seems feasible, especially with this lineup. They just need to do a good job of advertising things, but I think games like Super Mario 3D World, Mario and Sonic Olympics, Wii Fit/Party/Sports, and others will sell well if people are aware of them all.

shingi_70November 04, 2013

Quote from: Luigi

Quote from: Pixelated

I have to agree with Shyguy and Nickmitch.

In a normal year, Nintendo might have met these sales expectations. Nintendo typically pull in great numbers during the holidays. This year, however, both Playstation 4 and Xbox One are expected to sell out at launch, and both companies are reported to have pretty solid production yields. That means there is going to be a bunch of new consoles out there for people to buy, which sucks a not insignificant amount of money out of the market.

I also think Nintendo already played the Mario card when they launched the system with NSMB U, and as a result many of those people who were interested in playing a Mario game already own a Wii U. The packing in of NSMB U, Luigi U, and the bundling of SM3DW will definitely boost sales, but as good as those games might be I don't see them bringing in the numbers that Nintendo need.

Whether or not Nintendo cares to acknowledge it, it is competing with Microsoft and Sony directly for people's dollars/pounds/euros, and the launch of these new consoles just means increased competition.

I of course hope Nintendo meets, and in fact exceeds, these expectations, but I'm dubious.

This thing is Microsoft and Sony are aiming at a completely different audience.  Nintendo's aiming at family's this holiday while Microsoft and Sony are going after the 18-34 year old male audience.  Not many families are going to spent over $400 to buy a PS4 or One when they can get a Wii U for at least $100 cheaper with two Mario games bundled, and other titles that appeal to kids like Mario 3D World, Sonic Lost World, and Mario & Sonic at the Olympics.

But won't that crowd just opt for a Xbox 360 or Playstation 3 both of which are cheaper and have superior software library's and bundles.

smallsharkbigbiteNovember 04, 2013

Or they could just opt for a ps4 or xbox 1.

I think 10 years ago the expectation was that 30-40 year olds don't game and the video game console was for the kids. Now I think most 30-40 year olds play video games.  If you want a ps4/xboxone it's an easy justification to pick that up for your gaming and then pick up some family specific games for the kids rather than spend another 300 for the Wii U. Yeah it's not as fun as Mario but there are buches of kinect games or Sly collection or whatever. Nintendo doesn't own family gaming. Plus most 30-40 year olds grew up in the ps1 era as children and want nastolgically to give those games to their children.

Leo13November 04, 2013

I grew up in the PS1/2 era, but we never had either. PS3 was the first Playstation I ever owned, but I've owned SNES, N64 and Gamecube so when I want to show my kids my childhood and memories I do it on my Wii U. Personally I still enjoy Mario and Zelda and Donkey Kong more than COD Assassins Creed and Battlefield

smallsharkbigbiteNovember 04, 2013

Yes, as I have an affinity for Nintendo despite nearly all my college friends having a PS2. You have to realize that you are in the minority though and most people from that era will want to introduce their kids to Sony franchises. That's why I think it took so long for Nintendo's policies to negatively affect them. They had the benefit of going through a generation of parents who were nostalgic to their games and wanted to introduce their kids to it. Now that benefit lies with Sony.

CericNovember 04, 2013

Quote from: smallsharkbigbite

Or they could just opt for a ps4 or xbox 1.

I think 10 years ago the expectation was that 30-40 year olds don't game and the video game console was for the kids. Now I think most 30-40 year olds play video games.  If you want a ps4/xboxone it's an easy justification to pick that up for your gaming and then pick up some family specific games for the kids rather than spend another 300 for the Wii U. Yeah it's not as fun as Mario but there are buches of kinect games or Sly collection or whatever. Nintendo doesn't own family gaming. Plus most 30-40 year olds grew up in the ps1 era as children and want nastolgically to give those games to their children.

Most 30-40 Years old grew up with NES and SNES.  Your thinking 20-30 year olds but that is somewhat of a stretch too.  Ironically enough 30-40 are the ones that keep gaming.

smallsharkbigbiteNovember 04, 2013

Not sure what your last sentence means. Nostolgia isn't what you experienced first but what you have the fondest memories of. I'm in my mid 30s and most of my friends that are interested video games have a strong ps or xbox brand bias. Not scientific for sure, but the ps1 released in 94. A 40 year old would have been 21 possibly in college. That may be stretching it slightly but certainly my d 30s eould have had some prime gaming in the sony domain. Either way based on Wii U sales, I think we can safely assume nostolgia is not helping Nintendo at this point.

Hibern81November 09, 2013

I'm a 32 year old father of 3 who grew up with Nintendo. It's pretty much the only video game company I invest in, having a total 3 3ds' and a Wii U.  90% of the games we buy are Nintendo first party games.  To those saying the Wii U is going to struggle because of the launches of the PS4 and Xbox1 are mistaken IMHO.  There is going to be residual effect that will actually trickle down to the Wii U, and help it a lot more than hurt it. Even if Nintendo doesn't market this holiday (which would be the biggest mistake they could make at this point) the launches of the other 2 consoles will still bring attention to the video game market, which in turn will bring attention to Nintendo and Wii u as well.  Do you think that when these kids start to clamor for a $500-$600 console (which is what it actually comes out to after the purchase of a game) that the Wii U's $299 price point is going to look more and more attractive to the average parents?  I know it would to me whether I was video game literate or not.  Do I think they are going to reach their fiscal year goal? Realistically, no. Not unless they can release Mario Kart 8 no later than the end of February.  I guess time will tell...

smallsharkbigbiteNovember 09, 2013

Yes, there are still some Nintendo faithful out there.  I consider myself one.  Although I'm no longer Nintendo exclusive, I still grab Nintendo products first.  You just have to realize that you are in the minority or the Wii U would be doing better.  Most experts have the PS4/Xbox One moving 2.5-3 M boxes this holiday.  That's basically going to wipe out the Wii U lead and put the systems neck and neck after just a couple of months. 


There is some truth that the market is ready to move on from Wii/PS3/Xbox360.  As such, most consumers will wait until all options are released before they jump into a new console.  But the Wii U is no longer an unknown.  It's known that most big games will not only be optimized for PS4/Xbox One but will skip Wii U entirely.  It's known that the Wii U is not a hot commodity while the other two will be at least this holiday season.  Consumers love hot products it's in their DNA.  I just don't see the bump being very significant for the Wii U.  It has games now, has better bundles, and is still selling poorly.  It needed to move 300,000-400,000 a month during the game slow first year.  Not, 460,000 over like 9 months.  That's abysmal and difficult to recover from. 


While I've argued that $ is important in the handheld arena (you have 3 3DS and most families have multiples) I don't think it's that important in the console arena.  I know families with multiple Ipads for their kids and they think it is the best thing ever.  Most 11 year olds have smart phones of their own.  Ipad can charge more than Androiod tablets because it's perceived that it's a better product with better apps.  Sony/Microsoft will have this advantage over their Nintendo this round. 


I know you seem to be a reasonable parent with reasonable limits for your children.  But don't expect most parents to be this way.  Tommy's going to come home and say "Mommy I played the PS4, it is the greatest thing ever!!!!  I love it, I want one, Please, Please, Please, Please, Please!"  And most parents will buckle.  Especially because $300 is still alot of money.  If you have trouble justifying the extra $100 between something your kid wants and something your kid doesn't want, you might as well save your money and say no to both options. 

ymeegodNovember 09, 2013

"Wii U's $299 price point is going to look more and more attractive to the average parents?"

But the PS3/Xbox360 are still cheaper and still in demand.  I have annephew and his friends (8-9) and not one of them wants an WII U.  It's either games for current system (Minecraft very popular still) or they want an PS4/XBOX One. 

Some of them wanted an 3DS and most of them didn't even know what a Vita was (lol--I had mine to show them).

 

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