A war is about to take place. Throughout the Internet many people are already taking sides. They argue endlessly over specs, inflated polygon numbers, fill-rate, features, lists of developers and more. The sides are clear. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft. Until recently, Sega could be counted amongst their ranks, but alas, the once mighty hardware developer has already fallen to the rank of respected 3rd party. Meanwhile, Sony has a head start on the others, but Nintendo and Microsoft have had more time to prepare their forces. It's going to be one hell of a battle in America at the end of the year.

However, the situation is quite different in Japan. You might figure that the situation is similar, but that is far from the truth. Sony's ultra-hyped console has been on the market six months longer, and the hype is dying down. Nintendo is about to release the Gameboy Advance, only three months before the GameCube launches. The GameCube will be accompanied by a new Mario title and other key Nintendo franchises at nearly half the price of the PS2. Sony plans to fight back with Final Fantasy X... if Square can finish it in time. It will be an interesting fight to be sure, and you can make a lot of good arguments for both combatants, but where does Microsoft fit in? The answer may surprise you... Microsoft doesn't fit in. The Xbox doesn't even stand a chance in Japan.

There are many reasons why the Xbox won't do well there. The biggest strike against the Xbox is that Microsoft is an American company. The Japanese will not buy from Microsoft when there are two perfectly good Japanese competitors in the market. The volcanic islands that make up Japan are poor in natural resources, thus the resources of Japan are primarily intellectual. Technology is Japan's natural resource, and you can be sure that most Japanese will defend it by purchasing from Nintendo and Sony exclusively. This is business as usual in Japan. Microsoft may be able to carve a niche in the market, but it will not amount to much.

In addition to this, there are also many perfectly logical reasons why the Xbox doesn't stand a chance in Japan. Look at the launch date for example. We don't even need an official launch date. Let's just pretend that somehow Microsoft launches worldwide before the end of 2001. They will still be months late in Japan. It's more likely that they will launch nine to twelve months after Nintendo in Japan. Add to this the fact that the more expensive Xbox will only out perform the GameCube by a small margin if at all, and you start to see just how ludicrous the situation is. Sony already has the DVD capabilities covered, and a broadband adapter/hard drive combo is in the works that will be supported by Final Fantasy XI. Nintendo will have all of its hit franchises from 1st and 2nd parties, not to mention, whatever they unleash at E3. Even the appearance of the Xbox works against it in Japan. The Japanese thought the original GameCube controller was too big. Look at the size of the Xbox and its controller! The console itself is the size of a large VCR. This won't really matter in America, but it is important in Japan. A controller redesign is possible, but shrinking the console is physically impossible. Finally, what games will the Xbox have for the Japanese? They will not be interested in the action games that most Xbox developers will be making; the mainstream Japanese consumers like Japanese RPGs more than anything. M$ may find a way to dig some appropriate games up, but how many will be exclusive? Will at matter in light of all the other problems?

As you can see, Microsoft has some very serious problems to contend with if it goes forward with its launch plans in Japan. While the company is certainly big enough to ignore the Japanese market, and America will provide them with money one way or another, you have to wonder what Bill Gates is thinking. Nintendo of Japan's president, Hiroshi Yamauchi, isn't even worried about Microsoft's presence in the American market; he certainly isn't worried about their presence in Japan. Gates may be able to drop wads of cash in America to make things happen, but this will not work in Japan. In truth, I can't think of any realistic strategy that can cause the Xbox to succeed in Japan. Can you?