It’s official now. Nintendo will only have 2 competitors in the next generation of console wars. Industry veteran and beloved software maker Sega has stated that they will drop out of the console hardware business to focus on software. The days of the Sega Scream are numbered. Or are they? In truth, the Scream is very much alive now. Sure it won’t be on the soon to be defunct Dreamcast for much more than a year or so, but the famous scream will be heard on all 3 of the next-generation consoles. And, ironically, Sega should have more influence in the next-generation battle than they were likely to have had before their announced restructuring. How so? Well, exclusive software has always played an important role in establishing console dominance in every generation. It figures to be even more important in the next-generation battle. With the costs of game production continuing to rise, third party publishers are more and more likely to put out a game on multiple platforms to get the biggest bang for their buck. Why limit yourself to a single console when for a fraction of the cost of a new game, you can port that title to another platform? While this practice will bring in more money for publishers, it makes the differences between the consoles less distinct. Thus the few titles that are console exclusive will stand out even more in the next-generation console wars.

And where does Sega fit into this? Good question. Sega offers a vast treasure trove of popular licenses and pure game development talent. Who will get the treasure is still largely uncertain. While some concrete titles have been announced, Sega’s overall strategy remains unclear. Will they simply look to make the most money they can and publish almost any title for every platform or will they be selective about which console gets what titles? The answer could very well tip the balance of power. Major exclusive titles from Sega will be hot commodities to Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo. How much would it kill execs at Sony and Microsoft if Nintendo could claim to have both next-generation Mario and Sonic games exclusively? Any fan of that genre would instantly buy a Gamecube. Similarly, how painful would it be to Nintendo if Sony could claim exclusivity to the Final Fantasy, Dragon Warrior, and Phantasy Star franchises? This is the sort of influence that Sega now has. They join the ranks of Square, Capcom, Namco, and Konami as providers of AAA quality third-party games.

Of course, they’re actually bigger than the other major third-party publishers and have a larger pool of development teams and established franchises making them quite special indeed. Furthermore, Sega’s development teams can produce AAA games in every major genre from sports (NFL 2k1) to RPGs (Skies of Arcadia/Phantasy Star) to platformers (Sonic, duh) to racing (Sega GT) to fighting (Virtua Fighter) to music/rhythm (Samba de Amigo/Space Channel 5) to action/adventure (Jet Grind Radio/Ecco the Dolphin/Shenmue) to arcade (Crazy Taxi) to virtual talking pets (Seaman)...pretty much everything. Sega is now the premier third-party developer that any console could have and any exclusives for that console could greatly affect its success.

So which consoles will end up with these gems? Sega hasn’t laid out specific plans, though Charles Bellfield (Sega VP of Marketing) has stated that “we (Sega) will look at it title by title, license by license, franchise by franchise, character by character, and by platform” as well as the fact that “we will look at content specifically targeted at consumer audiences through a particular platform.” This seems to indicate that Sega will distribute its franchises and exclusives between all 3 next-generation consoles rather than favoring any one console. However, for the most part, Charles Bellfield’s and Peter Moore’s (CEO of Sega of America) statements regarding Sega’s specific strategies for third-party console development are vague and can’t be used to accurately gauge what we’ll see in the future. Even the seemingly concrete announcement of Virtua Fighter 4 being exclusive to the PS2 has been questioned by various sources in the media. Honestly, though, Sega’s lack of commitment to any one next-generation console isn’t all that surprising right now. They’re likely to keep their options open and ride the fence for as long as they can. It’s a simple matter of solid business strategy.

One interesting detail that has emerged from the spin-doctored comments of the Sega execs is that the rumors of a Sega/Nintendo RPG have not been squelched. In response to Gamespot’s asking Charles Bellfield about a Sega/Nintendo co-developed project, Mr. Bellfield replied, “In terms of that specific question, I can't comment at this point. But I can say to you that we are in conversation with all of the major platform providers on a range of options that would include co-development and exclusive content.” which is basically an official “we can’t say anything yet” instead of a denial. This is followed by the confirmation of the possibility of a co-developed game project. Also recall a few months ago in GameWeek magazine, Peter Main was given the opportunity to squash this rumor and replied with an enigmatic “no comment (smiles).” Those two “no comments” speak volumes to me. It’s just a matter of when the official announcements are to come (E3 perhaps?).

In the end, though, all the attempts to figure out how Sega will impact the next-generation console wars are fairly moot for now. Sega’s effect on the next-generation console war probably won’t even be felt until 2002. After all, their various development teams are going to continue to develop for Dreamcast for a little while longer and dev kits for various systems have probably only been around for a handful of months. Sega may port existing games to PS2 and have a few new games like Virtua Fighter 4 for new systems in 2001, but the bulk of original Sega titles on other consoles probably won’t see the light of day until 2002. So any attempts to prognosticate exactly how Sega will tip the balance of power won’t be answered for another year. Still, as die hard gamers and people who are interested in the industry, it’s only natural to try to predict the future. One thing is fairly certain, though. The Sega Scream will go on, and whichever console is lucky enough to have Sega exclusives will likely find itself in a good position in the upcoming hardware wars. So keep those ears open, that scream you hear could very well determine the victor in the next-generation console wars.