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Leak Debunker: February 2016 Edition

by Donald Theriault - February 28, 2016, 6:22 pm EST
Total comments: 19

Caviar F: The 2019 Game of the Year

UPDATE February 28: When Nintendo uploaded artwork for Pokémon Sun and Moon on Friday, the filename originally started with "Niji", before being changed. This may lend credence to that part of the rumor, but I'd encourage remaining skeptical on the rest of it, especially as Nintendo's plans are constantly subject to change. Also, "ni-ju" (two ten) is the pronunciation for the number 20 in Japanese. The original story is below.

A recent alleged “leak” on the NeoGAF message board has purported to basically run the entire Wii U and 3DS lineup for 2016, as well as estimated marketing budgets for the Wii U and 3DS. The source has claimed several games with wacky codenames – who’s down for “Cadillac” this summer? - that could be referring to just about anything. As near as we can figure, all of these rumors are largely bunk.

We’ve reached out to sources familiar with the matter, who indicated that the claimed source from “Nintendo of America Marketing” would actually be from a very small department, as most of the marketing legwork is handled by outside firms such as Golin-Harris. The source seems questionable given that Nintendo of America would have a small pool of targets for investigation, and the total marketing budget would never go down to their level. That’s information that stops at the Bill Trinen level, if not higher.

Another item on the list is a purported 3DS price drop late in the year. Although a plan for a price drop could be in the early stages, it’s not going to be official or 3DS sales would be even more crippled. The Osborne Effect is real. The Nintendo of America marketing department, at best, is likely focusing on plans for promoting Star Fox Zero and Bravely Second at this time and rolling out Pokkén Tournament. They might have a rough plan for what will be at E3 in June (spoilers: NX for days, y’all). They wouldn’t be hammering out anything for the fall and holiday shopping seasons until after E3 when the corporate buyers have had a chance to make their deals.

The presence of humorous-sounding codenames for unannounced games gives the “leaker” an option to say “See, I told you!” when game X or Y comes out for the rest of the year. Not that Caviar F or N-Stars aren’t exciting, but those are so non-specific as to refer to everything from Picross 3D 2 to Nintendo buying the publishing rights to Shin Megami Tensei IV Final (note: will not happen). We can say that Pokémon Rainbow, in addition to being the subject of a previous rumor just before X and Y launched, wouldn’t fit with the naming conventions of the series as it stands now. There’s a better than average chance of there being a Pokémon RPG for the 20th anniversary, but it’s not going to be called “Rainbow”.

We asked a source with knowledge of the matter for their thoughts on the post, and they didn’t mince words: ”With the increasing rumors and 'leaks' that appear every year in the leadup to the first major announcements of the year, fans and gamers should keep a discerning eye. Unfortunately, the recent rumor featuring a Nintendo 3DS hardware price cut six months in the future, and the release of PokemonPokémon Rainbow, are completely unfounded and should be taken with as much salt as possible.”

Talkback

SonofMrPeanutFebruary 22, 2016

With Pokémon Rainbow (especially if Dave comes back and says its an MMO), I finally believe that Dave is the kind of guy who would make a bunch of safe claims (UE4, Final Fantasy, Zelda cross-gen release) so he could make an outrageous claim with a "track record" behind him.  This profile will probably drop off the face of the planet come E3 or a genuine mainline Pokémon announcement.

NeoxonFebruary 22, 2016

The NeoGAF leaker is currently being verified by the admins, so we'll know for sure in due time. If he's BSing us, he'll get perma-banned.

Evan_BFebruary 22, 2016

On one hand, I take ALL rumors with as much skepticism as possible.

On the other, I trust people more than cats.

SorenFebruary 22, 2016

Quote from: Neoxon

The NeoGAF leaker is currently being verified by the admins, so we'll know for sure in due time. If he's BSing us, he'll get perma-banned.

He's already being schooled if he's really relying on just one source.

Liam Robertson just dropped something about Nintendo and EA. I guess he was feeling overshadowed today.

ejamerFebruary 22, 2016

Meh... sometimes garbage "leaks" are fun.  At least it gives something to talk about during the doldrums.
Plus, nobody needs to delete their Twitter accounts as an unfortunate repercussion.

MetaldaveFebruary 22, 2016

To the editor of this article, I know you are doing your job so no disrespect. A few things here to consider:

-There is no department at NOA that is just called "Marketing". My source works for one of the many marketing related positions at Nintendo of America, they are not considered a head manager or anything. Also they come from a much larger pool of people than this article leads your readers to believe.

-If this information that my source leaked to me is so outlandish, why did that representative of NOA get back to you so fast to try to damage control this? This information wasn't supposed to be released to public pure and simple. Nintendo simply must deny this to the public, this is good old fashioned business strategy and there is no way on earth they would admit that what was leaked was real. You can't be expecting that right? lol.

-To be totally clear on Pokémon, the code name is "Niji", nothing actually said "Rainbow" on the document,  just the Japanese translation means that if you use Google translate. My fault for even typing or writing the word Rainbow since it wasn't said. The final name will most definitely be something different. This does not change the fact that Pokémon 20th anniversary is coming to the 3DS for holiday 2016.

-Also you do know that a lot of unannounced games have code names correct? "Cadillac" is just a code name for precautionary purposes by Nintendo in case leaks like this one happens.

-My source will be legitimately identified and verified as a true current employee at Nintendo very soon.


Thank you - Metaldave/SuperMetaldave64

TOPHATANT123February 22, 2016

I agree it sounds really dumb, but could he really have just predicted Disney Art Academy?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1188110
From this thread it sounds like there is at least some truth to it.

Nintendo used to share marketing budgets with retailers on the silly vhs tapes, although I'll admit that's a stretch.
https://youtu.be/nkGuhMCCslM?t=13m20s

Also PokemonPokemon Rainbow.

KhushrenadaFebruary 22, 2016

Quote from: Metaldave

-My source will be legitimately identified and verified as a true current employee at Nintendo very soon.

Why? Are they getting canned for giving this information out to you because their job isn't as important as giving a random poster on an internet site the first chance to spoil all this news? 'Cause #YOLO?

benjistaFebruary 22, 2016

I don't know if the rumors are true, however, revealing Zelda is being ported to the NX is a huge marketing mistake and seems too stupid to be real. Why would anyone want to kill the wii u sales more than they are already. If the leaker works for Nintendo that would be the worst possible thing to leak, wouldn't it? This alone makes me doubt this rumor.

SorenFebruary 22, 2016

Quote from: Metaldave

-My source will be legitimately identified and verified as a true current employee at Nintendo very soon.

Cool story. Can you corroborate what your source tells you with other sources? Cause for all we know that employee at Nintendo could be playing you right now. Or he could lose his job pretty easily. Either we you end up burned.

Your motives might be good and all, and you both might think the lack of communication regarding NX was "doing more harm than good" but then again you both fanned the flames of Gaf and got a thread nuked with what could amount to idle speculation. So I don't know. I'm just a guy on the internet. Like you!

For the record, we never said our source here worked at Nintendo.

tyto_albaFebruary 23, 2016

The most troubling about this leak is that the employee felt it neccecary because Nintendo's communication both inward and outward is pretty much gone after Iwata's death. It's also painful that this is another NoA employee who feels the need to bring classified information to the fans.
Japan might "reorganize" localization, like they did in Europe.

geckog7February 23, 2016

can someone please explain getting a source verified on neogaf...
What is this process and how does it prove anything?

SorenFebruary 23, 2016

Quote from: geckog7

can someone please explain getting a source verified on neogaf...
What is this process and how does it prove anything?

It basically means this:

Quote:

...when we "verify" sources, what we do is get a name to the source and verify that they are in a position that could plausibly know the things that they say they know. We do not verify what they're claiming, just that they are theoretically in a place to be claiming the things they are.

None of the information is proven right or wrong. MetalDave is still relying on one single source for all his info which we now all now is some person at marketing at Nintendo.

ejamerFebruary 23, 2016

Quote from: Metaldave

... My source works for one of the many marketing related positions at Nintendo of America, they are not considered a head manager or anything. Also they come from a much larger pool of people than this article leads your readers to believe. ..

Dude, if you aren't lying then you really need to protect your source better.


Don't say anything about your source beyond letting people know that it's being verified as someone who could have access to such information, and then have patience to be proven right or wrong. Help your source keep their job by keeping your mouth shut as much as possible.


Over time you'll either be proven right or wrong, but the more defensive you get now the more the whole thing looks like a desperate cry for attention instead of a real leak.

SorenFebruary 23, 2016

Quote from: ejamer

Dude, if you aren't lying then you really need to protect your source better.

This right here. Everything I've heard from this guy is about what steps the source is taking to protect him/herself. I have no idea what he's doing to protect his source.

TOPHATANT123February 26, 2016

The word Niji appears in press materials for Sun and Moon I hear, looks like NWR need to recheck their sources. :P:

Also there was this a few months ago that turned out to be nothing, http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/rumor/41293/inklings-shovel-knight-coming-to-smash

Due to leaked past code names it's believed Caviar F is Pokemon Rumble World, Cadillac is Style Savvy 2 and N-Stars is something Mario Party related. The last unknown being Torte City which is a big budget game for all ages releasing in the summer.

tyto_albaFebruary 26, 2016

The videos regarding the leak about 3Ds & Wii U upcoming titles and marketing budgets on Super Metal Dave's channel have been removed. I suspect the Nintendo Ninjas got to him.
Cheers to Metal Dave, martyr of free gaming journalism!

SonofMrPeanutFebruary 26, 2016

So update, in case you haven't heard:  All of SuperMetalDave64's "leak" videos are gone.  Conveniently this happened right before the announcement of Pokémon Sun & Moon.


If you're reading this, care to explain?  I know a "Niji code name in a web address" picture has been prevalent, but I'm hesitant to take that at face value.  While I took an "innocent until proven guilty" approach up to today, with Sun/Moon I am now on the "guilty until evidence redeems" stance when it comes to SMD64.

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