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« on: October 20, 2006, 03:26:57 PM »
Last night, I started thinking about how the Wii is going to become a big phenomenon this holiday season, with people saying that it has the potential of becoming the "Tickle me Elmo" of 2006. I then asked myself "Could the Wii truly become a phenomenon? Is it poised to be Nintendo's biggest console ever?".
The answer I came up with is "Yes, BUT it might be a while till the console reaches a similar status like the DS".
First of all, I doubt the Wii will dethrone Tickle me Elmo this Christmas. First, Elmo is a media whore, everybody knows about Tickle me Elmo, and the biggest one of all, it is cheaper than the Wii. True, compared to the PS3 the Wii is very cheap. BUT, if you end up buying a second game and extra controllers, it could set a family back over 400 dollars.
S_B had a good point in that Nintendo could promote the Wii as a family present, but even if Nintendo convinces people that the Wii makes a great family present, who is to say that some family will add up the final Wii total and say "For that type of money, we could be buying something that is useful for the family". There are families with tight holiday budgets and I am sure they will be looking for the cheapest deals, so even if everyone wants a Wii they might think of buying twice because of the price. This is why I believe that the Wii will NOT become the hot Christmas item everyone is predicting it will be.
HOWEVER, I do agree that it will certainly be a very popular console this holiday season. The pre-release hype and media attention is so far bigger than for the Gamecube. But I believe that the real test lies after the launch. At launch the hype is at its highest, with a great deal of the hype being created by the fans. It is after the launch that we will see the Wii's real strenght. Luckily, Nintendo has avoided that pitfall by having a healthy selection of games throughout 2007.
Remember, the DS took nearly a year for it to become the sensation it is today, and it took the right titles for it to reach the top (Animal crossing, Nintendogs and Brain age, among others). If they do the same thing with the Wii, they are destined to succeed. But I think it will not reach the same DS status as quickly and some people have claimed it will be. Again, the strenght lies after launch and the titles released in 2007.
Not to mention that Nintendo is UNSTOPPABLE on the handheld market. When the DS was released, Nintendo already had a reputation for delivering solid handheld experiences. Even with how weird the DS was back when it was released, the handheld Nintendo name alone helped it. In fact, even with Nintendo constantly saying that the DS wasn't the Gameboy's successor I wouldn't be surprised if people saw it as the next Gameboy (I remember at school a friend of mine saw my DS and he said "It's just another Gameboy").
The Wii, however, is entering when the Nintendo name on consoles is tarnished. I mean, even if the Wii has impressed even the doubtful who says there isn't people that will judge the Wii according to what happened to the Gamecube? People could look at the Wii and say "Looks cool, but I think it might end up like the Gamecube". This is an area Nintendo needs to work the hardesy on. So like I said, it won't be easy for the Wii to become the success people are predicting so easily.
One big advantage Nintendo has right now is that Sony is weakened at the moment. Lack of solid launch titles, a high price, lack of consoles and possible faulty equipment will harm it. But, what if Sony finally get off their asses, look at their mistakes, fix them and FINALLY present the PS3 as the media juggernaut it is, along with some truly killer APPs. Won't this affect the Wii, especially if the PS3 hype finally launches like crazy? Like Nintendo it WILL take Sony a while for them to make up for their mistakes, but once they do the Wii will have fierce competition.
So what do you guys think? I know half of these are me worrying a bit too much, but I think some of them are valid concerns.
Anyone care to add to my points or prove them wrong?
Oh and just so you know I am a Wii believer. I think the Wii will indeed capture peoples' imaginations and revolutionize the industry, but it won't be a cake walk. Success will come thanks to A LOT hard work and determination.