Topic: Could the Wii TRULY be a success?

[NWR_pap64]

Last night, I started thinking about how the Wii is going to become a big phenomenon this holiday season, with people saying that it has the potential of becoming the "Tickle me Elmo" of 2006. I then asked myself "Could the Wii truly become a phenomenon? Is it poised to be Nintendo's biggest console ever?".

The answer I came up with is "Yes, BUT it might be a while till the console reaches a similar status like the DS".

First of all, I doubt the Wii will dethrone Tickle me Elmo this Christmas. First, Elmo is a media whore, everybody knows about Tickle me Elmo, and the biggest one of all, it is cheaper than the Wii. True, compared to the PS3 the Wii is very cheap. BUT, if you end up buying a second game and extra controllers, it could set a family back over 400 dollars.

S_B had a good point in that Nintendo could promote the Wii as a family present, but even if Nintendo convinces people that the Wii makes a great family present, who is to say that some family will add up the final Wii total and say "For that type of money, we could be buying something that is useful for the family". There are families with tight holiday budgets and I am sure they will be looking for the cheapest deals, so even if everyone wants a Wii they might think of buying twice because of the price. This is why I believe that the Wii will NOT become the hot Christmas item everyone is predicting it will be.

HOWEVER, I do agree that it will certainly be a very popular console this holiday season. The pre-release hype and media attention is so far bigger than for the Gamecube. But I believe that the real test lies after the launch. At launch the hype is at its highest, with a great deal of the hype being created by the fans. It is after the launch that we will see the Wii's real strenght. Luckily, Nintendo has avoided that pitfall by having a healthy selection of games throughout 2007.

Remember, the DS took nearly a year for it to become the sensation it is today, and it took the right titles for it to reach the top (Animal crossing, Nintendogs and Brain age, among others). If they do the same thing with the Wii, they are destined to succeed. But I think it will not reach the same DS status as quickly and some people have claimed it will be. Again, the strenght lies after launch and the titles released in 2007.

Not to mention that Nintendo is UNSTOPPABLE on the handheld market. When the DS was released, Nintendo already had a reputation for delivering solid handheld experiences. Even with how weird the DS was back when it was released, the handheld Nintendo name alone helped it. In fact, even with Nintendo constantly saying that the DS wasn't the Gameboy's successor I wouldn't be surprised if people saw it as the next Gameboy (I remember at school a friend of mine saw my DS and he said "It's just another Gameboy").

The Wii, however, is entering when the Nintendo name on consoles is tarnished. I mean, even if the Wii has impressed even the doubtful who says there isn't people that will judge the Wii according to what happened to the Gamecube? People could look at the Wii and say "Looks cool, but I think it might end up like the Gamecube". This is an area Nintendo needs to work the hardesy on. So like I said, it won't be easy for the Wii to become the success people are predicting so easily.

One big advantage Nintendo has right now is that Sony is weakened at the moment. Lack of solid launch titles, a high price, lack of consoles and possible faulty equipment will harm it. But, what if Sony finally get off their asses, look at their mistakes, fix them and FINALLY present the PS3 as the media juggernaut it is, along with some truly killer APPs. Won't this affect the Wii, especially if the PS3 hype finally launches like crazy? Like Nintendo it WILL take Sony a while for them to make up for their mistakes, but once they do the Wii will have fierce competition.

So what do you guys think? I know half of these are me worrying a bit too much, but I think some of them are valid concerns.

Anyone care to add to my points or prove them wrong?

Oh and just so you know I am a Wii believer. I think the Wii will indeed capture peoples' imaginations and revolutionize the industry, but it won't be a cake walk. Success will come thanks to A LOT hard work and determination.

[SixthAngel]

I think price is generally irrelevant to the for the big holiday seller as long as it is not extremely outrageous ($599).  Once the item reaches the "it" status for the Holiday season customer become willing to pay whatever it takes to get said item.  Will the Wii reach this status?  I have no clue.

I also think that the new gameplay features of the Wii are far more obvious then the DS.  The DS had a lot more people saying "what will we use this new control scheme for?" but the Wii has a control scheme that anyone can immediately see new possibilities for it.  It also has people with immediate faith in a new control scheme thanks to the DS success.  Speaking of Nintendo's console name being "tarnished" if you notice with the Wii Nintendo is trying not to include the company name much at all.

[IceCold]

I don't think it needs to be a huge holiday seller like that - it will still sell out at launch and for a while afterwards.. I completely agree with you that 2007 until holiday season will be crucial to the Wii - the game lineup looks excellent for that time period, though.

[GoldenPhoenix]

Quote
Originally posted by: IceCold
I don't think it needs to be a huge holiday seller like that - it will still sell out at launch and for a while afterwards.. I completely agree with you that 2007 until holiday season will be crucial to the Wii - the game lineup looks excellent for that time period, though.

The launch lineup is what impresses me the most, even without heavy hitters like Metroid Prime 3 it still is one of the best, most diverse launches I've seen in a LONG time.  

[JonLeung]

As fun as Rayman: Raving Rabbids, Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz, Wario Ware: Smooth Moves and Wii Sports will be, I personally think there really should be some more epic games soon.  And I think there will be.  If not, I fear that instead of Nintendo being a "kiddy" console, it'll just be seen as a "casual" console.  Which I don't think is much better.

It's great that Nintendo is courting people who don't consider themselves gamers.  But I think we need to see how the Wii Remote will improve genres of games that are likely to stay because they're popular among gamers.  The controller really should improve upon FPSes (and grab the Xbox crowd) and RPGs (and grab the PlayStation crowd).  Nintendo is competing, and really should be trying to, even if they say they aren't.

The Wii will be a success.  It'll sell better than the GameCube; it'll draw in lots of new gamers.  But I think it ought to try to be number 1 without being ridiculed by so-called "hardcore" gamers (there's that word again).

[KnowsNothing]

Quote
As fun as Rayman: Raving Rabbids, Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz, Wario Ware: Smooth Moves and Wii Sports will be, I personally think there really should be some more epic games soon. And I think there will be. If not, I fear that instead of Nintendo being a "tiku tiku tiku! " console, it'll just be seen as a "casual" console. Which I don't think is much better.

Isn't this the same thing people said when the DS launched?  And looks how poorly it's doing!

[Spak-Spang]

I believe the Wii has potential to be huge.  But I actually expect to see its best sales within the first 3 years of its life.  If you try the system you love it.  It truly doesn't feel like you are playing a video game.  It feels different...I can't explain it.  It doesn't feel like this, but it is the only way I can think to describe it: It feels like you are truly interacting with a movie.  

I loved playing the system, and I am literally counting the days until it comes out now.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

All the non-gaming press will eventually land in Oprah's giant lap.

Especially from "top holiday toy" lists.

The world is in wait.

[Ceric]

The Wii and the New Tickle-Me-Elmo will not be 'it'.  The thing that is 'it' was never truly predicted it just sort of somehow comes out of no where and everyone is surprised.  Thats how that particular phenomenon works.  If the company knows it will be a big seller they will make enough to compensate if able.  The 'it' is always something where the manufacturer thought they had produced enough, it sort of takes off for some reason, and there is now a wicked demand.  From what I can tell Japan is prone to this all year why here in the States its a Christmas thing.

[GoldenPhoenix]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ceric
The Wii and the New Tickle-Me-Elmo will not be 'it'.  The thing that is 'it' was never truly predicted it just sort of somehow comes out of no where and everyone is surprised.  Thats how that particular phenomenon works.  If the company knows it will be a big seller they will make enough to compensate if able.  The 'it' is always something where the manufacturer thought they had produced enough, it sort of takes off for some reason, and there is now a wicked demand.  From what I can tell Japan is prone to this all year why here in the States its a Christmas thing.

Wasn't Tickle Me Elmo predicted to be the hot holiday item by Toys R Us?  

[Spak-Spang]

Elmo is alittle different as it is a recognizable and loved character, and I think it was the first of the huge Elmo doll successes, all later models didn't do as well.

I think you can predict sales trends.  You focus on hype of product, availability, word of mouth popularity...and to some sense rarity...as being rare definately drives up demand.

The Wii fits several of those as being redhot, and a few as not.  

I personally think the Wii will be a huge success this holiday, but I don't see it claiming the number one top stop for sales and demand.  If it even began to climb the ladder you know Sony and Microsoft both will push to dethrone it quickly.

[GoldenPhoenix]

Quote
Originally posted by: Spak-Spang
Elmo is alittle different as it is a recognizable and loved character, and I think it was the first of the huge Elmo doll successes, all later models didn't do as well.

I think you can predict sales trends.  You focus on hype of product, availability, word of mouth popularity...and to some sense rarity...as being rare definately drives up demand.

The Wii fits several of those as being redhot, and a few as not.  

I personally think the Wii will be a huge success this holiday, but I don't see it claiming the number one top stop for sales and demand.  If it even began to climb the ladder you know Sony and Microsoft both will push to dethrone it quickly.

Not much Sony can do about it when they can't even get out enough systems to come close to meeting demand nor nothing in the way of unique gaming experiences.

[Smash_Brother]

Reggie goes on Oprah = Wii becomes best-selling product in the history of mankind, gg Nintendo.

But seriously, I think the Wii has more going for it than people think, and here's why...

1. All of the hype thus far is pre-advertising
When there's this much buzz about a console and the developer has yet to spend a penny on advertising, then what happens when the already impressive appeal of the Wii is communicated through TV advertising?

2. Nintendo can (and likely will) sell the Wii as a family activity
If I wasn't a gamer, I had a family and I saw the Wii ads, I would buy one for my family for Christmas not only because it looks fun, but it's something the WHOLE FAMILY can enjoy together. Not only that, but OMFG, it's EXERCISE!!! I'm worried about the fact that my kid is becoming a fat sack of crap sitting in front of a computer all day but this will get him up on his feet and give him a reason to move. Not only that, but I could stand to lose a few pounds myself and playing tennis with my children is not only exercise but it's also bonding with my kids. It's a win-win situation.

3. Nintendo can cash in on the once huge anticipation of virtual reality
Remember back around the time "The Lawnmower Man" was released and everyone thought VR would be the next big evolution in interactive entertainment? Yeah, then VR dropped off the face of the planet. The Wii is a HUGE step closer to VR and I think people are going to look at it and think of it like a VR machine because it's the first commercial product released to the general public which actually has a right to call itself that.

We look at the Wii and we think "console" because it's made by Nintendo, but the average potential customer won't see it that way. How do I know this? Because the press doesn't see it that way. In fact, the press seem to absolutely LOVE the Wii, eating it up at every turn, and TRU clearly doesn't consider it a console either.

To the press, it's something new and different, something incredible, and it's so rare that a new piece of technology is actually interesting enough to warrant reporting that they'll jump all over the chance to do so when it happens.

And this is all without advertising. What would you say the expansion of knowledge base will be when the videos of the people using the Wii come to primetime television? How many people will see the Wii for the first time and say "WTF is THAT?!"? The current popularity stems entirely from internet sources and word of mouth.

How much of Nintendo's potential audience have they yet to reach?

I'm not placing any bets until Nintendo starts advertising. The Wii has appeal on a level that TME can NEVER possess: it's fun for an entire household, a product which will be enjoyed by people of all ages. Until we see what Nintendo opts to do with their advertising, I think saying the Wii won't be the big seller this xmas is getting ahead of yourself.

To us, it's a gaming console. To the rest of the world, it might very well be that new gadget that gets gamer kids up off their asses, provides a bonding activity for parents and their children and serves as an easy access gateway to weather and other information without sitting down to a computer.

Like I said, wait for the TV ads. Wait.

[GoldenPhoenix]

I agree totally Smash, those are some great points I do think people are underestimating Wii. BTW in regards to exercise, since the Wii is much more physical there is a good chance the PS3/Xbox 360 owners will be weeded out since Wii owners will be able to take the system wars to them physically and may live longer as well!  

[JonLeung]

I REALLY want to see somebody on a talk show come in with really big forearms 'cause they've been playing Wii Sports: Tennis all day.  The host asks, "wow, you've got big arms.  Have you been working out?"  And the guest says "Yeah, I've been constantly playing with my Wii."  Inevitably some audience members will laugh, and some people will be offended.  And assuming the people at home don't tune out right away from shock, the guest (or host) will eventually clarify in the next half minute.

Sure, penis joke again.  But I've never seen it mentioned like that on TV and that would no doubt get a lot of attention.  People say the name is stupid - and maybe by itself, it is - but it gets a lot of attention and I think it will help Nintendo to achieve success.

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: JonLeung
I REALLY want to see somebody on a talk show come in with really big forearms

Reggie, Oprah

'nuff said.

[Caterkiller]

I never even thought about what things will be like once Nintendo advertises on TV. The thought is very encouraging.

Now I walked into my EB today and checked their Wii pre-order list, and it was past 130 pre-orders! And thats not including the origonal 25 they had for the first pre-order. With Nintendo's party going on up there, the store is planning to have 200 Wiis ready to sale.  

Im not really sure what the usual pre-order numbers are like for most console launches. 150 for a single store seems massive to me. But as fas as I know(and I havn't really investigated this) this EB is one of the only ones excepting pre-orders again, so all the left overs could just be flocking there.  I don't know, frankly I don't want to know. I wan't to think that the Wii will be the console to own this generation.

I have really big expectations for this thing, we'll see what happens.  

[GoldenPhoenix]

I am really interested to see how launch day goes in Japan!

[Kairon]

Thank GOD Nintendo is able to get 4 million Wii's out of the door this year(for which we can thank Wii's unambitious tech).

I've always wondered why companies launch with so few units to get into people's hands, that's thousands, even hundreds of thousands of wasted sales and wasted hype and wasted advertising dollars. This might finally be a launch that doesn't strike me as an overblown and useless media circus. And it's important to have a large user base right off the bat to tempt third parties, ESPECIALLY for Nintendo.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[GoldenPhoenix]

Quote
Originally posted by: Kairon
Thank GOD Nintendo is able to get 4 million Wii's out of the door this year(for which we can thank Wii's unambitious tech).

I've always wondered why companies launch with so few units to get into people's hands, that's thousands, even hundreds of thousands of wasted sales and wasted hype and wasted advertising dollars. This might finally be a launch that doesn't strike me as an overblown and useless media circus. And it's important to have a large user base right off the bat to tempt third parties, ESPECIALLY for Nintendo.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

I don't think it is because of the "unambitious" tech because the Wii's compact design and what appears to be quality, durable hardware is ambitious technology, just not in the sense of graphical horsepower. Nintendo is just smart when it comes to hardware for the most part, they finalize the hardware way ahead of time to get a sizeable stockpile for launch. Sony or even Microsoft wouldn't have had their problems if they would have finalized hardware sooner, especially Sony who was making changes up to the last second.

[Nick DiMola]

My biggest encouragement for Wii success is the gaming masses' opinion. Anything that had to do with Nintendo was always a hate fest, with the Wii, people all of a sudden love Nintendo. The opinion of the company is so different amongst the inner circle of gaming, than it was before E3. I think if the Wii can gain momentum with this crowd first (sales wise), it will go mainstream, kind of how the PS2 did some years back. We all know today the kind of market penetration Sony has with the PS2, if Nintendo could grab half of that they will be HUGE.

[Galford]

I think the launch period for will go well for Wii.

The main question will be 2007.  The Wii must have a large, nonstop
flow of games to erase people's memories of game shortages of past
eras.

That is the key for Nintendo this time around.

[couchmonkey]

Quote
Originally posted by: Spak-Spang
I personally think the Wii will be a huge success this holiday, but I don't see it claiming the number one top stop for sales and demand.  If it even began to climb the ladder you know Sony and Microsoft both will push to dethrone it quickly.

But what will they do?  Market harder?  If Wii is the hottest product on the market, the free publicity will overshadow anything they do.  Drop the price of their systems by $100 out of nowhere?  If Wii sells on the power of its technology, what would that accomplish?  Copy Wii's unique features?  There's no time to do that in the next two months.  Of course in the longer run these tactics may help Microsoft and Sony to compete with Wii if it is a big success, but even then I think Wii is different enough from the other consoles that they will have a hard time finding good ways to fight it.

At any rate, I think Nintendo is free and clear this holiday season.  Sony and MS are too busy focusing on each other - every other announcement seems to be about getting a game that was previously exclusive to the other system (Ninja Gaiden, Eternal Arms, Marvel Heroes / DC Heroes, Grand Theft Auto, and so on) and Sony even released a price comparison chart that makes it look good compared to Xbox 360...but horrible compared to Wii.  They're only focused on each other, and I don't think that will change unless Wii outsells them for a sustained period of time.

I think Nintendo's fate is largely in its own hands now, and I agree with Galford's comments about the game lineup.  Right now the first few months of next year look pretty sweet: Mario Galaxy, Metroid, Batallion Wars, Super Strikers, Wario Ware, Disaster, Brain Training, Project HAMMER, Sonic, SSX, and so on...but if those games start getting pushed back, or they fail to show why Wii is so great, Nintendo may have problems.

Edit: DC Heroes not DS Heroes...I have DS on the brain!

[MaryJane]

Quote
Originally posted by: pap64

HOWEVER, I do agree that it will certainly be a very popular console this holiday season. The pre-release hype and media attention is so far bigger than for the Gamecube.

I hate to sound like an ass, but that really isn't saying much, although I agree with most everything else you said and S_B as well.

I also hate how console don't release with RPG's. My favorite genre and I'm really waiting to see what is done with the Wii for RPG, I want a first party one with HUDs galore, I want it to be like a computer game, so I don't have to press start to change my party or equip a new weapon, change armor, or check stats, i press the A button over what I want to see and it shows it. No more going through 3 submenus just to equip a helmet.

Anywho, more on topic the success of the Wii relies a lot on the non-gamer, as much as we love "traditional" games we need them, bcuz "hardcore" gamers think very little of Nintendo's console abilities and won't touch it unless it's a huge success.

Comparing the Wii to the DS, when I first saw the DS I was like WTF is Nintendo thinking, when I first saw the Wii trailer, I was like WTF are those people doing then I said HOLY SH!T my dreams have come true.

Hopefully the Wii can mimick the success of the DS and we get truly awesome games of every genre.

[Smash_Brother]

If Nintendo wanted to be unscrupulous, they could bribe a few choice individuals to ensure that there is an absolute frenzy whipped up about the Wii.

The Fox network has already done this, showing what was basically paid advertising and presenting it as news. For the right sum, I'm sure Nintendo could buy the Wii the same treatment, having a news channel talk about the Wii as though it's the revolution in interactive entertainment which will exercise your fat kids and create a family bonding experience, making you feel like you're not such a sh*tty parent after all.

That's why I think the Wii has so much potential to be the hot seller this xmas. Elmo will just irritate the sh*t out of parents with his incessant laughter and the kids will get bored with it after less than a week.

The Wii provides stimulation and exercise for the entire family. As a family present, the Wii is a goddamn bargain, even with the extra $120 for 3 more Wiimotes.