Author Topic: Switchmas Eve Rumors and Speculations Thread  (Read 475585 times)

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Offline Shaymin

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To answer the three questions in the thread title: No, ideally $170 with a full game, and ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Offline BranDonk Kong

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It has a 32-bit processor. Yes, 32-bit processors can use 4GB RAM (just not Windows), but it would be almost pointless. The next console needs to use modern technology, not an overclocked GameCube CPU and GPU. It needs to be built from the ground up.

Offline Evan_B

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I wasn't considering the hardware architecture, but yeah, I can see the NX having some semblance of the Wii U's hardware in it.

All the more exciting, since it's going to be one of those "third pillar" handhelds they claim won't interfere with the sales of their first two pillars, but will sell pretty well so they'll drop it entirely. Making a doom prediction here.
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Offline Nile Boogie Returns

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It has a 32-bit processor. Yes, 32-bit processors can use 4GB RAM (just not Windows), but it would be almost pointless. The next console needs to use modern technology, not an overclocked GameCube CPU and GPU. It needs to be built from the ground up.


True, however i always thought the Wii u was closer to a G5 which is scalable to 64bit and by extension, 8gb of ram. but even that would be overkill without faster cpu/gpu. Still the point I'm trying to make is that I don't for a sec believe Nintendo is building this thing from the ground up. The approach vector seems focused on price, mobility and the fruition of the thought process that started with the Wii U platform and architecture.

Offline Adrock

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They can't wait too long though.  The Wii U's poor reputation will further damage Nintendo's brand as a console maker the longer it is out.  Each year Nintendo is more and more of an afterthought and that will just make it harder to sell the NX.  I'm of the idea that the quicker the Wii U is swept under the rug the better.  Nintendo needs to be ready and not rush the NX but if they knew what they were doing they have started their Wii U exit strategy a while ago.  They'll only be rushing it if they took too long to admit the problem (so in other words they're probably rushing it).
What constitutes as too long?

A July 2016 launch is about three and a half years after Wii U launched, and this would be during a time Nintendo admitted it does less business. Three and a half years isn't without precedent. Nintendo launched DS roughly three and a half years after GBA, third pillar be damned. Four years is better though. Microsoft launched 360 four years after the original Xbox so I think Nintendo can get away with that as well granted its ready to launch a successor.

Sweeping Wii U under the rug as fast as possible is the worst thing Nintendo could do. In fact, that's the opposite of what Nintendo has done so far since it's still supporting the console. It towed the line and kept releasing quality software which is the best case scenario for an underperforming product. Nintendo shouldn't alienate existing users. Without openly admitting it, Nintendo has admitted it has lost. That's fine because there's no way to reverse it. Forge ahead on a successor while trying to build momentum with the current product for a smoother transition.

I think Nintendo is launching NX in November 2016. If Nintendo insists on remaining silent until next year, a November launch makes more sense than a July launch. Nintendo can start discussing details around March, have a full reveal at E3 in June, then ride that momentum until launch with a few Nintendo Directs. That gives Nintendo almost a full year to get the message out.

Offline UncleBob

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I, too, want to get overly emotional on the internet over unsubstantiated rumors printed by random people on the internet.
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Offline NWR_insanolord

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I, too, want to get overly emotional on the internet over unsubstantiated rumors printed by random people on the internet.
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Offline alegoicoe

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A mid-tier Steam machine with the ability to play Nintendo games made by Nintendo would be a great idea for NX ::) ::) ::)
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Offline MagicCow64

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I think Nintendo is launching NX in November 2016. If Nintendo insists on remaining silent until next year, a November launch makes more sense than a July launch. Nintendo can start discussing details around March, have a full reveal at E3 in June, then ride that momentum until launch with a few Nintendo Directs. That gives Nintendo almost a full year to get the message out.

I am more and more thinking that they're targeting November 2016, but I also think they might not have their **** together in time and have to end up delaying. A full year further might be out of the question, though, given that we've probably seen just about the last of WiiU's lineup announced already. They could get away with a dead back half of 2016 for the Wii U if the new console was rolling out in November, but they'd really be on the skids if there was over a full year of nothing leading up to a Fall 2017 launch. This also brings up questions about Zelda timing . . .

Offline Nile Boogie Returns

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Reveal in January: No price or Name


Blowout in April: Price, Name and Launch Window


E3 2016: EVERYTHING


"Zelda Wii U March 2016"




Offline Shaymin

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Your timeline's off by a couple of months. More realistically, it's Nikkei leak in March, blowout at E3, new handheld November 2016.
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Offline Spak-Spang

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If the NX is releasing in the 2016.  That means we will not be getting a Zelda for Wii U unless it is duel released on the Wii U and NX.  For Nintendo to release in 2016, means that all development for games that were going to be released on the Wii U by Nintendo's in house development teams (First Party) need to be focused on converting those games for the NX to have a good launch line up.  That means perhaps Retro really is working on a launch NX game. 

However, I still believe 2017 will be the release year of the Nintendo NX.

Offline Evan_B

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I Nintendo is unwise, which I fully believe, they will show the NX for two years at E3. Their current plan of "satisfying Wii U owners" makes me think they aren't dropping it before the end of 2016. I also find it strange that people are still convinced this is gong to be a home console and not a handheld- the 3DS has pretty much maxed out its longevity and the amount of "game" people can put on it. It's time to lay that to rest. Nintendo can have a mediocre home console like Wii U continue to make money (the fact that they haven't price dropped it yet shows that they don't feel too desperate for sales) while they release a new, big handheld. Maybe it's a handheld with Wii U architecture. But I am not certain the NX is a home console.
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Offline MagicCow64

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I Nintendo is unwise, which I fully believe, they will show the NX for two years at E3. Their current plan of "satisfying Wii U owners" makes me think they aren't dropping it before the end of 2016. I also find it strange that people are still convinced this is gong to be a home console and not a handheld- the 3DS has pretty much maxed out its longevity and the amount of "game" people can put on it. It's time to lay that to rest. Nintendo can have a mediocre home console like Wii U continue to make money (the fact that they haven't price dropped it yet shows that they don't feel too desperate for sales) while they release a new, big handheld. Maybe it's a handheld with Wii U architecture. But I am not certain the NX is a home console.

I would have thought it would be the new handheld, but even though the 3DS is whiffing compared to the DS, it's still doing a hell of a lot better than the WiiU. It could survive for longer on a drip of low-budget projects (hello Paper Jam) in a more profitable fashion than could the WiiU, whose low-budget projects would still be significantly more expensive than 3DS projects for a much lower userbase. I think the only wild card is if the whole NX project is fairly out of left field and doesn't fit into the current scheme of things, which some of the rumors tend toward. The rumblings (allegedly trickling down from early sharing with 3rd parties) are pointing toward a device that is not radically more powerful than a WiiU. I would agree with people here that replicating the Gamecube to Wii hardware pivot would be a real disaster for a standard home console, barring some black swan event like the Wiimote, and now that the Wiimote has happened and VR isn't on the table, it's hard to imagine what that could possibly be.

Offline Luigi Dude

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I would have thought it would be the new handheld, but even though the 3DS is whiffing compared to the DS, it's still doing a hell of a lot better than the WiiU. It could survive for longer on a drip of low-budget projects (hello Paper Jam) in a more profitable fashion than could the WiiU, whose low-budget projects would still be significantly more expensive than 3DS projects for a much lower userbase. I think the only wild card is if the whole NX project is fairly out of left field and doesn't fit into the current scheme of things, which some of the rumors tend toward. The rumblings (allegedly trickling down from early sharing with 3rd parties) are pointing toward a device that is not radically more powerful than a WiiU. I would agree with people here that replicating the Gamecube to Wii hardware pivot would be a real disaster for a standard home console, barring some black swan event like the Wiimote, and now that the Wiimote has happened and VR isn't on the table, it's hard to imagine what that could possibly be.

The thing is the 3DS has been out longer and already hit it's ceiling and has been dropping the last few years now, especially in Japan.  The New 3DS which people were saying was going to prolong the lifespan hasn't done **** for the system outside of the launch month, which makes a successor more important then ever now.  With smartphones gaining steam and eating away much of the handheld market, getting a new handheld out first is more important then a home console since handhelds have been their most successful market for the last 20 years now.  Even when the Wii was in it's prime as an insane global mass media icon, the DS was still the better selling system. 

See this is the thing, if Nintendo released a new home console first, especially if it's PS4 level like many of you want, that would eat away at resources for the next handheld.  Suddenly, major titles that should have been available around launch might be delayed because the studio's home console project ended up taking more time and employees then expected.  If the system has a terrible post launch period like the DS and 3DS both had, Nintendo might not be able to get the big guns they need to release like they managed too on time with the previous handhelds to turn them around because the next home console project took longer then expected.

This is why I still believe the NX will be a handheld since I doubt Nintendo will risk any thing that could jeopardize making sure it's a success its first year, especially with how popular smart phones keep becoming.
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Offline Nile Boogie Returns

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GBA 2001
GBA 2001

Gamecube 2001

DS 2004


Wii 2006

3DS 2011


Wii U 2012


NX 2016 :confused; ?




History tells us that this will be a handheld with possible console functionality.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2015, 08:23:00 AM by Nile Boogie Returns »

Offline Ian Sane

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Nintendo can't stick with the Wii U for much longer so I just assumed the NX was its successor unless it is a hybrid (which is the only way barely updated specs would fly).  Perhaps Nintendo can putter along and make a profit on the Wii U but that's just going to chip away at their mindshare in the console market.  Next time they do release a console they shouldn't want people to think that it will be another Wii U.  You think every Wii U owner is satisfied with the console's problems?  They may own one and buy games for it but still not be content with it and thus may be turned off of buying Nintendo's next console for fear of the same thing.  You think the Gamecube's weak sales was entirely because of the Cube itself or was it partially that a lot of N64 owners, who bought it expecting another SNES, were turned off by the console's problems and were quick to write off the Cube for fear of another N64?

The third party support is just going to get worse.  We're almost at the point now where Nintendo is the only publisher.  So if the Wii U sticks around and gets to the point where there are literally like six games a year how do you think the existing Wii U userbase is going to feel about continuing with Nintendo next time around?  And how strong of a mindshare will Nintendo have as a console maker with non-Wii U owners who they logically will be trying to win over?  The game releases will become less frequent so there will be a lesser Nintendo presence at stores, less games getting coverage on web sites, less ads in public places.  Nintendo as a console maker will be out-of-sight and out-of-mind.  They NEED to replace the Wii U or they're just going to fade away further into irrelevance.

Best case scenario: the Wii U is seen as an anomaly and not a typical Nintendo product.  Why do you think they killed off the Virtual Boy so quick?  They didn't want the Nintendo brand to be associated with subpar products.  The longer the Wii U is on the market the more Nintendo will be associated with that kind of unsuccessful product.

Offline nickmitch

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Nintendo has so little mindshare as a console maker currently, it's an uphill battle either way.

A new home console launch could be the best thing for them especially if current PS4 and XB1 owners are looking for a second console.  Both systems have strong lineups, but a lot of those releases are far off or lackluster enough that a new system with Nintendo's marquee (or at least underserved) franchises at launch could be seen as a hold over.
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Offline Evan_B

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Blah blah blah Wii U owners hate the Wii U.

Best case scenario: the Wii U is seen as an anomaly and not a typical Nintendo product.  Why do you think they killed off the Virtual Boy so quick?  They didn't want the Nintendo brand to be associated with subpar products.  The longer the Wii U is on the market the more Nintendo will be associated with that kind of unsuccessful product.
Nintendo is going to try to make a bid for the worldwide market with their next console, and the market that is most likely going to buy is the handheld market. I the Wii U is such a **** show like you say, why would they attempt an other console so soon, with so little time to dwell on what a console actually needs?

Then again, you're commenting on modern day Nintendo, which makes no fucking sense anyway, but despite that, you're presenting a wildly ignorant mindset, even for Nintendo.
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Offline Luigi Dude

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The third party support is just going to get worse.  We're almost at the point now where Nintendo is the only publisher.  So if the Wii U sticks around and gets to the point where there are literally like six games a year how do you think the existing Wii U userbase is going to feel about continuing with Nintendo next time around?  And how strong of a mindshare will Nintendo have as a console maker with non-Wii U owners who they logically will be trying to win over?  The game releases will become less frequent so there will be a lesser Nintendo presence at stores, less games getting coverage on web sites, less ads in public places.  Nintendo as a console maker will be out-of-sight and out-of-mind.  They NEED to replace the Wii U or they're just going to fade away further into irrelevance.

Best case scenario: the Wii U is seen as an anomaly and not a typical Nintendo product.  Why do you think they killed off the Virtual Boy so quick?  They didn't want the Nintendo brand to be associated with subpar products.  The longer the Wii U is on the market the more Nintendo will be associated with that kind of unsuccessful product.

You make it sound like the rest of the industry is doing much better when the reality is far from it.  We have less retail third party games then ever before because of how high development cost have become.  Most studio's are just one game under-performing from being shut down, and under-performing means only selling 3 million copies because you needed to sell 5 million just to break even.  For fucks sake, before last gen, most major videogame series would be considered a huge success at 3 million, and many long running series got dozens of installments with sales that never even reached half of that.

Plus there's a good chance Microsoft will sell the Xbox division after this gen considering the One has been a complete disaster for them that's basically lost all money they made off the 360 and reduced their market shares back to original Xbox levels.  Yes Microsoft has the money to take losses, but considering shareholders in that company haven't been happy with all the money and resources they've spent on that division, you think they're going to be happy selling less then half of what the 360 after all the money they spent?

Yeah Sony is the only one doing good in the console market right now but the rest of the company is still in terrible shape.  What happens if Kaz gets fired because he's unable to turn about the rest of the company and the new President doesn't feel the same way about the games division that Kaz did and decides too makes some changes that don't go over very well.

Point is, Nintendo doesn't need to really rush a new home console out the door since the danger of being irrelevant doesn't mean anything when the rest of the industry is in real danger of collapsing.  Nintendo's long term strategy is about just surviving, which they've done for over 100 years now and right now they're the only major company in the videogame industry that has the best chance of still being a part of that industry 10 years from now.
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Offline Ian Sane

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I think the idea that the 3DS is in need of replacing comes from a Nintendo mentality that selling hardware is where the money is.  So what if the 3DS isn't selling systems like it used to?  Does it not have a decent sized userbase and are they not buying games?  What are the games sales for the 3DS?  If they're healthy then what's the problem?  Also the 3DS's competition is the Vita.  Where is a 3DS owner going to jump ship to?  The Vita is finished and if you own a 3DS you certainly aren't going to think that phones are a valid alternative.  You wouldn't have bought a 3DS if you felt phone games were good enough.  Odds are you already have a smart phone anyway.

But the Wii U faces stiff competition and has no chance to get out of last place.  To me that's a problem.  The Wii U is a problem so you fix it.  The 3DS isn't really a problem so it takes a back seat.  There is always the threat of Wii U owners switching consoles as the generation goes on.

I also think the handheld market is the much more vulnerable one.  For longterm success in the videogame hardware field I feel consoles are the market with more security.  Casual gamers are gone because there are enough consumer electronics now that people own anyway that are capable of playing games so only the enthusiast will buy a dedicated videogame system.  Handhelds were always more of a casual experience - you put up with a shrunken down experience to experience gaming on the go.  Much of the appeal was to have a fun distraction on the go.  Phones now provide that fun distraction.  That leaves the more dedicated gamer as the remaining target audience but dedicated gamers are more likely to go for the higher end experience which is the console.  So that's the safer longterm market.  I get why Nintendo would prioritize the handheld market because that's what they've had more success in but it's much more vulnerable.

Now the hybrid idea targets both markets so I'm pretty cool with that idea but for Nintendo to replace the 3DS while letting the Wii U continue to putter around makes no sense to me at all.  Besides the writing is on the wall for the NX to be a Wii U successor.  A Nintendo exec said that at this point it makes more sense to make a new Metroid Prime on the NX instead of the Wii U, Zelda mysteriously disappeared from E3 and the Wii U showing at E3 showed nothing beyond the present year (Nintendo's usual policy according to Reggie, despite them doing the exact opposite the year before).

Offline ThePerm

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well Whenever this Nintendo X box comes out I hope it has Halo. :D

What if Nintendo had already bought percentages of the Xbox division over time, and wont finalize the transaction till e3 2016? There have been rumors for a while, The chairman of microsoft has said on multiple occasions publicly that he wants to sell the division, Nintendo needs a stronger American division, why hasn't microsoft publicly announced they have sold it to some other company that wants it? Isn't it conveniently located(if you recall noa was originally across the street from MS campus?

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-boss-thinks-banjo-as-a-super-smash-bros-dlc-c/1100-6426396/

http://attackofthefanboy.com/news/microsoft-will-spin-off-sell-xbox-division-2015-says-analyst/

http://www.cheatsheet.com/technology/will-microsoft-sell-its-xbox-division.html/?a=viewall

Also, Rare.
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Offline Luigi Dude

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I'd imagine the amount of money Microsoft would want for Xbox would be way too much then Nintendo would be willing to pay.  Of course I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to make a play for certain things related to Rare during said sale.  We know there's copyright issue's involving the Donkey Kong County games (that's why they got pulled suddenly off the Wii's Virtual Consoles after a few years) and DK64 so I'd expect Nintendo to ensure they own all they need so they can re-release everything Donkey Kong Country related whenever they want again.

Plus Iwata has said he wishes Nintendo would have tried to keep the Banjo/Kazooie series so I wouldn't be surprised if Iwata tried to see if he could get that as well.  Since Rare games were a major part of the N64's library, getting the rights to as many Rare games as possible would make sense for Nintendo since it was vastly improve the N64's Virtual Console lineup for all future Nintendo systems.
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Offline ThePerm

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What if Microsoft still wants to have some chunk in the company? What if they don't sell it enterely, what if they want to keep 50% ? Microsoft could see it as a way to make money off Nintendo that would work for both the companies in a mutually beneficial way. The xbox division is not a separate entitiy at the moment, so technically it doesn't have a real valuation. Once xbox money is made it goes to the rest of microsoft. As low ball as it sounds 6 billion for half of the company sounds like a good valuation.

Then all Nintendo has to do is make the wii u controller compatable with the xbox, and move its games to xbox one, its like if they went third party without going third party. It would also make Sony look really bad, which im sure Nintendo would love.
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Offline Ian Sane

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I seriously doubt Nintendo would by the Xbox division anyway.  It doesn't seem like their style.  But wouldn't that be kind of futile?  Nintendo's problems stem from their own questionable decisions.  Any value in the Xbox brand comes from the people involved.  Take out the MS people that have some idea of what they're doing (thought they're not that great; mandatory Kinect blew up in their face) and replace them with Nintendo and I guess you get a more current console for the rest of the generation but it's all still being run by Nintendo.  Something like their sudden hatred of voicechat doesn't go away.  The Xbox third party policies would probably get all Nintendo-ized and start to turn third parties off.

The best thing it offers is for Nintendo to jump in partway through a generation with a product that is sort of successful and is at least a lot more contemporary than the Wii U.  It has a pre-existing userbase and lineup of games and online infrastructure.  There is no risk in a new console flopping since there is already a foothold.  That brings Nintendo more or less up to speed which would be good.  But then how does Nintendo not fudge the follow-up?  They need to learn what they're doing wrong.

Now if you had some company that had the best traits of both Nintendo and Microsoft's games division, you would get a pretty damn good company.  But that isn't what Nintendo gets unless they're so smart enough as to take everyone in and be willing to keep MS people over Nintendo people if the MS person is more valuable.  We all know they would probably lay most of the MS people off and institute a Nintendo way of doing things at all levels.

It's a good way to make up ground overnight but only if you know what you did wrong in the first place and what to do in the future.  Without that it's a lot like MS buying Rare where they quickly realized that Nintendo's involvement was a big part of the Rare magic and without it they just had a company name and some IP.