Author Topic: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg  (Read 18543 times)

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Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2008, 03:42:54 PM »
Actually, that's not exactly how things would have gone:  I don't know the result's of today's vote, nor do I know what reason people have for voting Mario, but at that point in the game, we would have set Mr. Jack after him that second night, thanks to the PM situation.  Additionally, since the mafia knew that Mr. Jack was on our side as the killer, they probably would have decided to kill him first, since a killer turned for the townies could have a ton of damage potential against the mafia.  You can ask Dasmos what he'd do in the situation, but if I were godfather, I'd have gone after the killer, not a townie, even if I had suspicions about an individual townie, in most cases.

Additionally, as far as uphill battles for the mafia go, there's not much out of their favor.  The odds are actually better for the mafia this game than last game, at this point in time, especially since there's one member out there that can appear as a townie always.  Because of this, and because of the Mafia doctor's ability, the mafia has a much stronger chance to live long enough to win.  Think about it:  There's a mafia member that could take three days to be voted out, and there's one who won't even be found out until he's dead.  That wasn't the case for the godfather: Dasmos's role was revealed upon investigation.  One of the players out there won't be found that easily, so it barely even matters that the investigator is left in the game.

Offline Pale

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2008, 03:45:30 PM »
The killer has no real incentive to work with the townies though.  Living longer doesn't matter if you are still going to lose.  Therefore, it's always in their best interest to try and turn the tide of whatever blackmail they were under, eventually probably screwing the townies in some form.

If I were the killer I would just take out every person that tried to blackmail me until I was voted out.
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Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #27 on: October 13, 2008, 04:31:29 PM »
That's a bad decision:  The correct decision would be for the Killer to go along until he gets the mafia doctor's ability.  Then, he starts going after the townie doctor.  Duh. That way, he can remain alive even with everyone knowing his ability.  You've got to think this out, Pale.  The killer wants to see everyone die.  He gets to kill longer if he kills whomever the townies assign to him.  He wants to stumble upon the doctor, too, though, so he can make his own decisions.  He's got a choice:  Either he can aim at people we didn't tell him to, and he gets voted out the next day, or he can keep killing and hope he finds the mafia doctor, then doctor.

C'mon, Pale, you didn't think that over, did you?  Going against the people that kept you alive means you die the very next day.  In this game, you definitely want to go along with the set-up, there's more incentive this time around than ever before, seeing as you get abilities for killing.  Since the Killer's role was made public, it's every player in the game that's trying to blackmail him.  He could not survive doing as you said, not immediately.  It's in his best interest to play along.

Now then, when we got to a day we didn't have any idea who to go after, we'd vote out the Killer, before he got that chance, essentially, I'd think.

Edit:  However, I still stand by my believe that in this event, the Killer would be targeted by the mafia right away, preventing a hit on townies for a night, as well.

Double Edit:  Actually, the killer would have been in one of the best positions I can imagine here:  He'd probably have a mafia member contact him and attempt to make some sort of deal, as well.

In this event, as the killer, I'd try to barter for one of two things:  The mafia Doctor's protections, or the mafia doctor's ability, itself.  One or the other, and then I'd go after the townies, trying to find the doctor.  Yes, it would be a fun, interesting game this way.  That would, hopefully, give the killer 6 days of protection, which, at two hits a night and a death during every day, would kill 18 players, assuming the godfather doesn't die once...  We had 21 players alive on Day 2, I believe, and three would have died on Day 2.

Yep, had I been the killer, it would have made for a very interesting game, thanks to all the doctors out there.  The game would vary, based on if the killer absorbs the starting # of protections for killing the doctor, or the remaining, since Silks would have used at least one.  Really, this is all very interesting.  It's too bad things didn't turn out a different way.

Offline vudu

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #28 on: October 13, 2008, 04:46:45 PM »
You forgot to take into account that we killed the killer as soon as we could because he was the fucking killer.  I don't care what you say--he's dangerous to have around so the quicker you can take him out the better.
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Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #29 on: October 13, 2008, 05:47:09 PM »
Well, one could say you were dangerous to have around, and the quicker you were taken out, the better, as well.  That's entirely a matter of perspective.  The same was said about me, and was at least 1/6 of the reason I was voted for, and likely more of the reason why people sat there, didn't vote, and watched as a died.

The only danger of allowing the killer to live was the doctor's role.  I've thought this over several times before, and it's been done in the past:  a killer working for your side allows you to play a much more productive game.  Look at Star Wars Mafia, look at the mafia where you were became the killer, the one Khush mentioned in the wrap-up thread last game.

The fact is, the majority of the townies have one ability, per say, which is to vote.  Having the killer on the townies' side doubles the strength of the townies, likewise, it doubles the strength of the mafia if they have the killer on their side.  Plain and simple math:

The townies vote out one unknown player a day and hope he's in the mafia, that's what's happened every day up until Dasmos was voted out.  The mafia kills a player that's definitely a townie every day.  When the townies win, their votes are correct enough times more than their votes are incorrect, and soon enough before the mafia kills for an advantage.  Having a killer on the townies side ramps up the ratio, and provides the townies more direct control over their destiny than before.  Before, they had equal control of who dies as the mafia, now they have twice the control.  A 1:1 ratio becomes a 2:1 ratio.

If you're making bad decisions, you're making bad decisions at twice the rate as before.  If you're making good decisions, you're making good decisions as twice the rate as before.  If you're making an even number of bad-to-good decisions, then you're making twice as many as before.  However, there's one thing you know for sure: a townie decision has a chance of being good, whereas the decisions the mafia will make will always go against the townies.  By taking advantage of the killer, it doubles the townies' effectiveness against the mafia, since they "guess" at who to kill, anyways.

The scenario I described at the end of my previous post is the "perfect storm" for the killer.  It would rarely, if ever come up for the killer, and would have to be craftily engineered by a player with a certain perspective on the game, and the right goals in mind.  There are incredibly slim odds of that lining up, since it would take a certain type of player, a certain type of mafia player, and a certain type of townie players to allow all of that to happen.  Even if that aligned, the killer would have to find the town's doctor before his two days are up.  It's not a scenario that could occur, and it's the only one that's risky to the townies, since any other scenario results in the killer being voted off on the next day or the killer playing on the townies' side until he's voted off.  Keep in mind that the killer wouldn't be able to use an ability the night he gains is, since he finds out the ability he gains after night actions are due.  Even if the killer gained a doctor's ability, he would still need protection that same day, protection he couldn't grant himself, to avoid being voted out.  Oh, and let's not forget, Mr. Jack is a new player.  As such, it's much less likely that he'd be scheming something, and much more likely he'd honestly just be looking to play the game a little longer, so the chances he betrays the townies fall even lower.  Like I said, given more than half a minute or so to make a decision, I will make close to the best one possible, provided I'm given the full story.

Looking at the possible scenarios, keeping the killer around would have much better odds of being beneficial to the townies than the daily vote would strike a mafia member.  Keep in mind that a killer working with the townies becomes a mafia enemy, as well.  Don't be stupid, Vudu.  By assuming anything that you don't know is on your side is directly against your side, you made mistakes, and we've seen proof of that posted this game.  Don't get me wrong, I've made mistakes, too, but at this point, I'd say that what I've done this game has been more constructive than what you've done, looking at the whole picture, though I can't get into now until I make my case for best strategy at the end of the game.

Offline vudu

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #30 on: October 13, 2008, 06:51:29 PM »
If you're making bad decisions, you're making bad decisions at twice the rate as before.  If you're making good decisions, you're making good decisions as twice the rate as before.  ...  By taking advantage of the killer, it doubles the townies' effectiveness against the mafia, since they "guess" at who to kill, anyways.

The problem with this reasoning is the killer is more likely to hit townies than mafia during the first few days of the game.  Until there are a few days worth of voting records and we can gauge how people are playing compared to previous games all voting is a complete crap-shoot.  Throwing in an extra death every night is more likely to hurt the townies since they out-number the mafia goons.

Even if the killer is playing on the townies side, he's going to likely be more beneficial to the mafia during the early days of the game.
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Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #31 on: October 13, 2008, 07:10:38 PM »
While the numbers say that's true, the only reason for that is because the mafia slims down the number of townies for a few days, hitting roled and unroled players alike.  With the killer slimming down the numbers and evening up the odds, at least then, it would be townies that are uncertain or rarely play, and would be difficult decisions late-game.

Early game, townies can die and it can help the townies overall cause.  That's partially what's happened this game.  We'd have a higher ratio of uncertainties die than the average game, yes, but as a result, the suspect list would shrink drastically, while leaving in a higher amount of confirmed townies that could easily work together.

Offline Spak-Spang

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #32 on: October 13, 2008, 11:14:52 PM »
thatguy your strategy for the killer is exactly why the townies needed to take the killer out first.

What happens if the townies side with the Killer...we start pumping names for the Killer to hit.  He kills the Mafia Doctor and is safe from vote out for 2 days. 

Great...now that means. he can make a plea to the mafia to allow him to live while he strikes the townies looking for the Doctor...or just tries it on his own.  He has 2 days of life to hit the townies hard. 

In a regular game the townies can safely make a deal with the Killer because they know they will always outnumber the Killer however, that is not true in this game with power absorption...the Killer can become out of control.  Potentially avoiding up to 5 vote outs (I think.)

And the townies have had a horrible time until now finding Mafia, but we still have a chance to win why is that?  Simple...we weren't losing 3 members every day.  The first day we lost 0, then 2 only since then.  That helped us a lot. 

Now, if we kept the Killer alive and the same events happened we would almost be done for by now.  we would have lost 3 for several days...and wouldn't be closer than we are now in odds to final victory.

thatguy your strategies often are sound for victory, but the Risk/Reward is not always worth it.  And you see the benefits and think other people are stupid for disagreeing with you...but the others may see the risk and decide to play differently.

It is a matter of personal style how to play the game. 

Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #33 on: October 13, 2008, 11:46:00 PM »
Does anyone else understand the rules to this round aside from me?  If the killer gains an ability, he can't use it until the next night.  If he were to hit the mafia doctor, he could be voted out at the end of the day, very simply.  He would not be able to use his ability the same night he gets it, and all abilities are sent in at night, so he couldn't just begin a protection in the middle of the day.

As far as the mafia goes, had we saved Mr. Jack, like I said to do, we'd be about where we are today: Voting out Mario, instead.  I don't know anything about who's who, but if your side has evidence Mario is mafia, then, right away, the townie's first kill would've been a mafia member, plain enough.

So, at the end of Day 2, without counting the night, we'd have Mario dead, and then we'd have the mafia's hit and the killer's hit.  If the killer agreed to work with the townies, the odds are that the mafia would target him.  They'd either target him or make a deal with him, one or the other, and either way, we'd find out that night.  We'd lose a townie and GP if this were the case, and vote out Mr. Jack a day later, still, having a mafia member out sooner, at the cost of less townies for the first mafia member killed.  If the mafia targeted Mr. Jack, we'd go 2 days without a single townie casualty, and one mafia member voted off.

The risk wasn't present.  Do you think the mafia would have used their protections on the killer?  That's seems more like an attempt to hand the game to the killer, not win it themselves.  The only way this plan could backfire is if the mafia chose to protect the killer the same night he gets the actual doctor's ability, which, at that point, would involve the killer betraying the townies, the mafia trusting the killer enough to reveal a member to him, the killer trusting the mafia enough to believe he could betray the townies, then targetting one out of 18 players correctly the first night or one out of 14 the second.  If he didn't get the doctor before then, the mafia would have wasted their protections far too early, and so the sacrifice of two townies would wind up being equivalent to where we are now, with the mafia's doctor having two protections.

The odds of this happening?  They are far to slim to for it to be worried about, even slimmer for a new player.  Just the odds of the killer killing the doctor are too slim.  The odds of the mafia recruiting the killer to work with them is just as slim.  They aren't the ones that reached out to him, and if they do, they risk him just eating their ability, hoping he found the doctor, anyways.  Don't forget, Mr. Jack was a new player.  I don't mean to talk down about new players, but it can take a few days to get oriented, most people don't magically pick up on the game, especially with a role like the killer's.

You can talk about risk/reward situations, but there's only one real risk to this, with insignificant chances of occurring.  Every other scenario offers a situation of equal gravity to the one the townies are in now, or, in fact, most offer a much better situation for the townies.  There's one dangerous case that has to be engineered perfectly, that also involves very unlikely trust, and overwhelming odds.  Find me a scenario where the townies don't wind up at least as well off as we are now, other than that one infinitesimal shot, and maybe I'll concede, if you're right, and this scenario would have had more of an opportunity to happen.

However, as far as I've analyzed, that's the only way there'd be a worse outcome.  You can't say our targets would have resulted in casualties when our first target would've been the same as tonight's vote loser.  There wasn't risk, not to the extent you all make it out to be.  You can't play this game paralyzed in fear about what your opponent will do if there isn't a chance it'll happen, and this time, that fear burned the townies and kicked off the volley of bad decisions we started.

Offline Spak-Spang

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #34 on: October 14, 2008, 12:18:03 AM »
No I understand But, would the townies say.  Of the Killer got the Doctor we should now vote him out.  Or would they celebrate and hope he gets another Mafia member.

It is all timing...and I can't say I know exactly how it would go. 

Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #35 on: October 14, 2008, 12:23:27 AM »
Then that would a problem that we created that could clearly be avoided.  That isn't an issue with my plan, that's just a poor decision from the townies when a danger is completely clear and present.  It would be ignoring a warning sign, essentially.  If I were alive and that situation occurred, I'd fight to make sure we killed the Killer that day.  I don't think there'd be much opposition from anyone, seeing as everyone wanted him dead sooner than that, anyways.

Offline Toruresu

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #36 on: October 16, 2008, 12:05:22 AM »
Seems I join the dead scene :D

This game was fun, really. Looking forward to the next one.
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Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #37 on: October 16, 2008, 12:43:15 AM »
Good, I'm glad to see you'll be back.  I think you've got potential, from one thing you did I won't be announcing, but it was gutsy and it had style, which is far better than playing the game conservatively.   I'll likely be hosting the next game, but we'll see what happens once it's over before we get into that.

Offline Stogi

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2008, 09:13:44 AM »
Meh....

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Offline Dasmos

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #39 on: October 16, 2008, 09:38:23 AM »
I think you've got potential, from one thing you did I won't be announcing, but it was gutsy and it had style, which is far better than playing the game conservatively. 

Well you've piqued my curiosity.
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Offline RABicle

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #40 on: October 16, 2008, 10:04:26 PM »
Laughing so hard at maxi right now. He's lost the plot. EVERYONE IS GUILTY!
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Offline BeautifulShy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #41 on: October 16, 2008, 10:16:13 PM »
Rab do you recall your first game. I am sure it didn't go smothly.
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Offline RABicle

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #42 on: October 16, 2008, 10:34:51 PM »
http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/forums/index.php?topic=16398.0
I do.
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Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #43 on: October 16, 2008, 10:52:56 PM »
I remember my first game.  I was the mafia whore.  I recruited Spak to the mafia, because he was the "Tough Guy," the last remaining non-mafia role that could kill townies.  A nice mafia win.

Then my second game, Khush and I found the mafia and killed them in a few days, it was all pretty basic work, ending with Sir_Stabbalot being in the mafia and betraying the alliance we created, but we figured it out the day after.  I was the investigator, and there were either three or four mafia members, with my first two investigations yielding two mafia members.

The game after that, Khush and I teamed up again, and found a few mafia members, including Spak, when Spak screwed up and sent a PM to me as a mafia member.  It was all good fun, and we agreed to let him live until we found the other mafia members to be nice.  The first night, the mafia targeted me, but I was protected by the doctor in the game.

I think the game after that was stevey's twisted Smash Bros. Brawfia game, where I was the killer, and got hit the first night by the mafia.  Stevey did not allow me my first kill because he had some weird and funky rules.  Also, no one knew what the roles were in the game, nor did they know how many there were.  It was a strange game that made me very cranky.  My first loss.

Somewhere in there was Spak's winter mafia.  I was going on vacation partway through it, and I was in the mafia, so I did my best to throw in some chaos, then got killed right before I had to leave.  Mafia won the game easily.

There was the wild west mafia, where, after I lead an effort to get GP voted out, then got hit by the mafia, myself.  I regretted getting her voted out, but this marked the first game I was hit by the mafia, and probably, if memory serves correct, the only game, too.

There was also the Star Wars game, my last recent game, I think.  For the second time, I was a neutral player, and thanks to my cunning, an officiating squabble was the result.  I pioneered a team with the killer role, but thought that one of us was actually invincible, so didn't care to keep a cover or maintain a solid strategy after I established a shield, and was found out.  Turns out the townies voted out the bounty hunter by technicality, despite his shield, and I lost, but scared several townies who thought the game was going for an automatic win in their favor, something I consider a success, even when it isn't a victory.

The last game was straight-up mafia, where Vudu investigated me on Day 1, and in return, I killed his face as Godfather.

The point is, even though you become more experienced as you play, you also have a more difficult game to play, because townies won't trust you, solely because you might have demonstrated you can play well as the enemy, and the mafia know you're a solid townie, and therefore, a solid target.  It makes the game harder, when as a townie, you have to be bad enough the mafia decides not to hit you, and as a mafia member, you've got to prove you can be helpful the entire game.  This game marked the first time the townies voted me out when I was not a mafia member, a sad story for me, because I had done nothing bad for the townies, only dissenting from the popular opinion that whatever Vudu did was the way to go.  It's gotten to the point in this game that if I am not productive to the townies, I'll be voted out, which will almost always be a loss for me.

Meh, I'm still making the argument that the killer should have been kept in order to fry the non-productive players, as in the players that just vote once every three days to avoid being killed.  Without such ambiguous players, the decisions have potential to be much easier, but no one agreed.  Sad, because the townies are in a state right now where they've voted out some of those players, like stogi, and switched one out, like EasyCure, which have been wastes of time, but necessary evils.

What's best is that Mario would have died before he learned information about who the townies were, something that would have kept that so-called alliance from frying, or at least, frying as easily as it did.

Meh, but what do I know.  For some players, if I'm alive, it means I'm in the mafia.

Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #44 on: October 16, 2008, 11:09:19 PM »
I think the game after that was stevey's twisted Smash Bros. Brawfia game, where I was the killer, and got hit the first night by the mafia.

There was the wild west mafia, where, after I lead an effort to get GP voted out, then got hit by the mafia, myself.  I regretted getting her voted out, but this marked the first game I was hit by the mafia, and probably, if memory serves correct, the only game, too.

That's a good memory you got there. He he he.
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Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #45 on: October 16, 2008, 11:18:11 PM »
Always thwarting my plans, Khush.  I meant that game was the first I was a townie hit by the mafia.  And I don't really count stevey's game as a game, it was more an explosion.

Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #46 on: October 16, 2008, 11:20:47 PM »
It was a win for me so I count it, dang it.
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Offline that Baby guy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #47 on: October 16, 2008, 11:32:24 PM »
Psh, I talked to you throughout that whole game, and except for about the last day, you had no idea what was going on, either.

Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #48 on: October 17, 2008, 12:06:16 AM »
I knew exactly what I was doing. I blocked the godfather with my power and systematically voted out the mafia. What threw me off was the fact that the godfather role could suddenly be switched. Then when I knew who the last mafia member was, Spak, I let him live to kill of nonplayers. Yet, somehow stevey didn't let my block of Spak go through and I was killed. You know. Strange action resolutions. Anyways, I was brought back into the game as mafia and I knew exactly what I was doing as I took out the townies to get the mafia win. I just wasn't prepared for strange twists.
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Offline BeautifulShy

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Re: Mafia XXVIII: The Death Egg
« Reply #49 on: October 17, 2008, 01:15:17 AM »
Well I am dead and so is Plugabugz and decoyman.I was a townie so was plugabugz.But I bring good news Decoyman was the pretender.


I had fun this game.I learned alot.I am interested in thatguy's game that he is going to host.

Mafia won. Damn it
« Last Edit: October 17, 2008, 01:20:36 AM by Maxi »
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