Topic: Is this a glimpse of the future? Blu-Ray Disc ...

[BlkPaladin]

So my point is vaild that games can't get much bigger than they are already.

[Tael]

What about music? It can still take up a considerable amount of space. Plus FMV will still have applications with documentaries on the games development and other extra features which are becoming popular.

[BlkPaladin]

If done right music doesn't take that much space even you put several different BGM selections because of looping and new compression technology. The only thing that would take that much space is Digitized Vocies and that can be over done especially if you have bad vocie actors.

[rodtod]

one question, is there really any significance to the laser being blue? as in, is it the color of the beam that lets the reader read the disc more precisely?

[BlkPaladin]

Disc media stores its data in "pits", blue laser as oposed to red laser can read pits that are closer together thus you can pack more on a disc. (Blue reads it closer than red because of Blue smaller physical wave legnth. ie its size.)

[theaveng]

Quote
Originally posted by: BlkPaladin
So my point is vaild that games can't get much bigger than they are already.

Ha!  Sounds like Bill Gates (or whoever said it): "No one will ever need more than 640 kilobytes in a computer."

I'm going to bookmark this sentence, and then bring it back up in 2005 when the new PS3/X-box2/GameCube2 consoles are released.  I bet games on those systems will easily exceed 20 gigabytes.

[BlkPaladin]

Go ahead. But devlopment times for third parties will not allow for much more than what they are already using. I'm not saying that there will be none that will get that high, its that they will be rare.

[mouse_clicker]

theaveng: What makes you think games will exceed 20 gigs? The ONLY way they could do that is through FMV, and I see a huge drop in FMV use next gen, when console-generated graphics are almost as good (they're nearing that point even this gen), and I imagine that FMV is actually pretty expensive, and, so I've heard, slower to make than console-generated cut-scenes. There might be one, two at the most, that will exceed or maybe approach 20 gigs, but I actually see game size going way down- way WAY down, especially 2 generations ahead. It's expensive filling 20 gigabytes of disc space.

[manunited4eva22]

It is also expensive finding ways to compress things to get them under barriers. 23GB WILL be filled at some point, mark my word by that. Now there are games with next to no compression, but there is obviously work that can be done to them. FMV is not the only way to fill games either. Remember there is sound, game engines, game texturing, a whole lot of things. Just keep an open mind to how much games actually take up.

[mouse_clicker]

Compression's biggest use is for FMV, though, which will be outdated very soon. I'm saynig there won't be any 20 gig games, but I'll be able to count all of them on one hand.

[Tael]

theaveng - You're right. As I mentioned earlier, there's something called Nathan's First Law of Software. When you have more hardware resources and storage space to work with, you can make software bigger, and include features you couldn't before because of limitations. Also, the user will expect software to have more and more new features. Hence, we're never going to reach a limit on the size of games. You could make an adventure game where you walk around a huge city, and you could have every citizen of that city be a completely unique person. No two citizens would use the same model, or the same textures. That could easily fill 23GB.

[theaveng]

Quote
Originally posted by: mouse_clickertheaveng: What makes you think games will exceed 20 gigs?

Because the size of programs (and games) has always grown:
Atari 2600 - 2K to 32K maximum size
Original Nintendo - 512K
Super Nintendo - 4000K
Nintendo64 - 64,000K
GameCube - 3,000,000K
-----------------------------------------------
There's no reason to think that 25-year history of constantly growing software will suddenly stop.  Even if future technology eliminates the need for FMVs, they'll still need textures.  And not normal textures, but HDTV textures which require 4 times as much storage space.

[BlkPaladin]

But there are compression techniques for textures. Will there be some huge programs sure. Will there be a lot of them no. For one reason we are looking at this from only the prespecive of technology growth. You going to have to include business models into this. Sure there are going to be some games that take up 20 GB worth of information but at what cost time, these games will take two to three year to program. And no every developer is will to put down that much money for one game. Blu Rays may be used in the future but I doubt they will be used to their full capacity.

And another thing about texture. They will not get much bigger. HDTV just changes the resulation of the display and the way signal are transmitted to the TV not much else. They may get a little more detailed with the texture but there is only so much a human eye can see.

[mouse_clicker]

Sure games will continue to grow, but you DO realize games are multiple gigabytes now because of FMV, which will be obsolete in only a couple generations? Are you catching on to that? You can't base a theory that we'll have 20 gig+ games based on that info. The ONLY reason we have multiple or dual-layered DVD, or even CD, games is because of FMV, which takes up an incredible amount of space. I'd challenge you to find one multiple DVD game in the next 5 years that doesn't use FMV. Yes, game size will go up, but there IS an upper limit. Programmers still have to program these things and developers don't want to be making games more a decade because that's how lnog the game actually takes to make. Game size will peak out, it will NOT continue to go up forever and ever. It takes way too long. Besides, all that FMV will be gone, and games will be much, much smaller in a few generations. You can't just assume something will always go one way just because it went so in the past- if anything you shoudlv'e learned that as a Nintendo fan.

[BlkPaladin]

I forgot what the law was. But its the form of the law of dimishing returns. Sure the first few generations of games had big bounds, so did sillicon chips. But there is an upper limit to how much a> delevopers are willing spend in terms of time and money on a game, b> how much size technology adds to a program versus to how much technology takes away from the size of the program.

As when this technology is finally adapted they will be at the end of how much space opitical laser technology can add to a disk. The rest will be up to compression.

[manunited4eva22]

That law applies to TWO DIMENSIONS. The fact that we are bound by what is basically two dimensions now, does not mean we always will be. Keep an open mind to the fact that.

[theaveng]

That's a good point about silicon chips and disc storage reaching the theoretical smallest size possible.  It's similar to how cars originally got 1 mile per gallon and now can get ~70 miles per gallon (diesel-electric hybrids)... but that's it.  No more efficiency can be squeezed out of the internal combustion engine.  We are coming to the same point in computers where no more performance can be squeezed out.  But I don't expect to reach that point until ~2020.  

And for FMVs, if the game producer wants photo-realistic graphics similar to Shrek, he won't be able to use 2005-released consoles.  They won't have that kind of power.  The producer will have to use FMVs for ultra-realistic Shrek-quality movies.

[oohhboy]

Since we are on topic of microchips and stuff and the law of dimishing returns and two dimensions etc. What would happen if one was to make a chip that was 3D. Like, it has more than one layer of cricuits making the chip taller. I am only throwing this up in the air, so don't klobb me over technicalitities. I mean wouldn't that somewhat change the rules?

IMO, I believe it is too early for Blue-ray. DVD has only been able to get mass market penatration as of late and with competing  discs and formats that will very well surpass Sony's offering, which I believe is only a small step forward in terms of storage space. Blue-ray will not get mass market penatration before the next real leap in portable storage comes about. Eg, Floppies to CD's.

[BlkPaladin]

I think the problem with making such a ship is there no way right now to stamp such a chip. Technology hasn't progress enough to were they will be able to make circuits that go the width of the chip since to be able to take the abuse of being used the chip has to be made in one piece.

And yes Sony Blu-Ray Disc should make that much of a dent in the current DVD market. It too soon for another format change. Maybe in five years the market may be ready soon if some form of backwards compatibility is employed. (Not to mention the last serious bid Sony had for a standard format was the Beta Tape in the 1980's and everything else they have tried so far hasn't done that well.)

[manunited4eva22]

The idea of 3 dimension chips I found when I did a project for Quantum computing which require exponential power to do something. A 3D environment would allow the chip to send information to different parts with passive direct bridges at faster speeds than current 2D chips. Don't ask me for the exact article, as I do not have it any longer.

[Cerberus]

Those discs are 11.7 times the size of the hard drive in our current computer.

[theaveng]

And 1/4 the size of my computer's hard drive (80GB).

I design multi-layer boards (upto 12 so far) which allow different circuits to lay on top of one another (separated by ground or power planes to prevent cross-talk).  I wonder why they can't do the same with silicon chips?

[BlkPaladin]

As I stated perviously the reason they can not do that is the circuit has to be made in one piece because of what demands are put on a processor. If there is a "gap" or a fuse it would create a weakspot that would burn out.

As for the that law yes it does apply to 3-D chips. You can't just keep piling on layers to make it faster/more powerful because there will come a point where you going form point A to B will not be as fast. The law of dimishing returns applies to almost any dimension.

[oohhboy]

Quick word, microchips arn't stamped. They are made by exposing alternate layers of conducting, sime-conducting and non-conducting materials to light or now days ultraviolet which causes the parts to harden. Then the unwanted bits are washed away. Which some layers you add special impurites to changes that layers properties. It is like making a lasanega.

[rodtod]

BlkPaladin, going with what you said earlier, I think there will always be a need for multiple disks. Developer creativity can go quite a long way, and in order for all of the content to be realized (that is, all the content the developer feels is necessary to the game), a heck of a lot of space is required.

Blu-Ray has been around for some time. Had ordinary DVD's never become so popular, Blu-Ray would've surely become the media standard. DVD's still remain, mostly because there hasn't been that big a demand for better-quality movie presentation, and because of the dual-layer format addition. Nevertheless, it's pretty much a given that technology will keep on being upgraded, and that certain products will be surpassed rather quickly. So, it won't be long before Blu-Ray finally replaces DVD's.

The question is, where will Blu-Ray strike first? Will it establish itself in the movie industry, or the gaming?