Author Topic: Is this a glimpse of the future? Blu-Ray Disc ... (Read 46583 times)

rodtod · « **Reply #50 on:** March 04, 2003, 02:21:18 PM »

Blu-Ray does look promising, except it still uses the same-size discs right? We need to see more ultra compact discs. One thing that made CD's better than records was that not only did they hold more information, but they were a whole lot smaller. Of course, there were laserdiscs as a sort of transition.

Think about it, the technological jump from Vinyl records to laser discs is very much like going from cd's to dvd's. Laser discs were basically the same size as vinyl records, but they held a lot more data. Going from laser discs to cd's though meant a decrease in the actual size of the disc. If there's a pattern here, then the next generation of disc media will not only hold more space, but the medium will be smaller in size.

Nintendo would probably never want to use a regular cd-sized type of medium. The GCN's minidiscs are proof enough.

Tael · « **Reply #51 on:** March 04, 2003, 04:01:09 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Hemmorrhoid
Terraflop is one billion flops, which is damn fast.

Wrong! 1 billion flops is a gigaflop. Go learn the prefixes for units of measurement again.

MikeHrusecky · « **Reply #52 on:** March 04, 2003, 04:21:09 PM »

8 cm Blu-ray would be pretty cool. Yamauchi made comments to the effect that 8cm media would be the future... so we'll see if Nintendo sticks to that belief.

It's apparently working out for them, other than the obvious storage limitation... well granted that turned into a considerable problem fairly quickly.

An 8 cm Blu-ray-esque format would mathematically come out to about 9 GB of storage per disc/layer, no? For 2006, I think that'd be enough. Whether that'll last to 2011ish, who knows?

deminisma · « **Reply #53 on:** March 04, 2003, 05:29:51 PM »

In terms of processor, I would love to see Nintendo go with IBM and PowerPC again. IBM have got their new PPC chips up to 2.4ghz. Just picture that...

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #54 on:** March 04, 2003, 07:45:28 PM »

Unfotunatly Nintendo might not go with them since IBM is working on the PS3 version of the Cell processor. Because its kind of a trend in business not to use the same partners as you rivals. But that may not be the case, IBM has hinted they would be happy to have Nintendo back. (For obvious reasons..)

nolimit19 · « **Reply #55 on:** March 05, 2003, 06:30:46 AM »

more about blue rays.....

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/ptech/03/04/blue.dvd.reut/index.html

theaveng · « **Reply #56 on:** March 05, 2003, 12:39:05 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: TAYREL713
I recall reading an article about the founder of video talking about a video game system based on magnetic tapes (basically VCR tapes). The guy swore it would have been the truth if it could be implemented

Computers released around 1980 used audio cassettes for storing games. My own computer, the Commodore=64 had games available for both disk and tape. The flaw with tapes are (1) Not randomly accessible (2) sloooooow. Data on disc can be read randomly (center/edge/middle... it doesn't matter) and much, much faster.

Quote
Stand-alone players are pointless right now. There's no pre-recorded content yet.

When CDs were introduced, players came first. Recordable CDs didn't arrive until ~10 years later. Ditto DVDs: Players in 1995/recorders ~2000. So it's natural to think Blu-Rays would be players first/recorders second... following the same pattern.

RickPowers · « **Reply #57 on:** March 05, 2003, 02:14:41 PM »

Quote
When CDs were introduced, players came first. Recordable CDs didn't arrive until ~10 years later. Ditto DVDs: Players in 1995/recorders ~2000. So it's natural to think Blu-Rays would be players first/recorders second... following the same pattern.

That's what we call "anecdotal evidence". You're forgetting about all the formats that had RECORDERS first, like audio cassette, VHS tape, Betamax, etc.

Just as in those cases, you needed the recorder first, because there was no pre-recorded content that would sell players. In this case, the driving force is the need to record HDTV content in it's native format.

For the record, this will also play audio CDs as well as current DVDs. It's also largely using the same technology as was already implemented in DVD recorders, just with a different wavelength laser. In the cases you stated, the recording technology for those formats weren't perfected yet.

EggyToast · « **Reply #58 on:** March 05, 2003, 02:50:54 PM »

It's a given that a recordable format would be available first, but the cost is usually so high that they never offer it to consumers. Manufacturers buy the recording machines and consumers the playback machines. So it makes sense that they would see the playback-only machines first, including in blue-ray technology drives.

I don't see how it would work for an "on the fly" burnable technology, though. Besides having to prep the disk by spinning it up to the right speed and marking a section for burning, you'd have to burn the disk and then close the data and add it to the TOC on the disk so the system knows where that data is. Doing that on a disk takes up significantly more time than simply saving to either a harddrive or non-volatile flash memory. And at the price point, it's doubtful we'd see anything with recordability in consumer products, let alone a *game console*, anytime soon. Have consoles ever been truly cutting edge for technology? No. They're kinda close to cutting edge for gaming, but PCs still have them beat by a wide margin. Even something like DivX isn't new -- the technology has been around for many years before Nintendo offered to use it.

manunited4eva22 · « **Reply #59 on:** March 05, 2003, 04:10:03 PM »

Not cutting edge, but cetainly ahead in storage. I had a SegaCD before a CD player. Also, how many games use DVDs? I have seen ONE. This is a full 2 years after PS2 launched with DVDs, so there is a point where these two are different.

RickPowers · « **Reply #60 on:** March 05, 2003, 04:16:45 PM »

Only ONE? I just grabbed six games at random from my PS2 section and FOUR of those were on DVD, one of which (Devil May Cry 2) was on TWO DVDs.

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #61 on:** March 05, 2003, 04:48:39 PM »

Yes there are several games now on DVD for the Playstation. But on the same note at this point the PSX had several games on multiple disk. The PS2 has DMC2 which is on multiple. (I don't think there is any other ones.) Xenosaga which was orginally suppose to be on multiple DVDs is only on one. Point out how much of problem it is the get enough content to fill more than one DVD in view of time constraints. (It was pointed out that having things at a lower compressions but that is superfically filling the disc since it can be done at compression with out losing quality.)

RickPowers · « **Reply #62 on:** March 05, 2003, 05:15:04 PM »

That doesn't make any sense. Ok, so by year two in the PlayStation's life span, games were eclipsing 650MB, and needed a second disc. Point.

A DVD holds 4.7GB on one side, single layer. A DVD can hold approximately SEVEN CDs worth of data.

You can't simply double the data and have your logic hold fast. It's not a multiplication problem, it's an additive problem. Some games that came at the END of the PlayStation's life span were on FOUR discs. That STILL can fit on a SINGLE DVD. By your logic, most games should be one two DVDs NOW, but won't be getting any bigger in another three years. It just doesn't work. Game size doesn't increase exponentially as years go by.

For what it's worth, Devil May Cry is only two DVD discs as a gimmick. The complete game is on each disc, but with different characters. Xenosaga is over one standard DVD because of the sheer amount of FMV used in the game, plus all the game data.

Tael · « **Reply #63 on:** March 06, 2003, 12:12:43 AM »

Nathan's First Law:
Software is a gas. It expands to fill its container.

[o]CUBE · « **Reply #64 on:** March 06, 2003, 03:02:56 AM »

Hi I'm a newbie anyways IF nintendo DID adopt this tech it will be required and compliment GC's other compnents and if they made it 80mm well it'll still be enough it's roughly a 3rd the data of a normal cd but if it came to using Fluorescent when maxed to a terabyte for standard it will take about 333GB and for the Blu-Ray it would be about 8 GB per disc and thats still quiet substantial and the processor that NEC has at the moment is too expensive to develop but at the moment it has 12-15 GB of processing power a second and uses 1 eighth of power(electricity) of a normal processor so that it will extend the heating time greatly and ATI are claiming that they have this amazing graphics processor which is 'unsurpassable' but how long for? and now we have confirmation of aTI and already knew about NEC this will result to the next nintendo console being purely amazing and Nintendo's president and Miyamoto have planned to have DV-R and DVD playing on their next console also MP3 cd and Minidisc of course so things are quiet looking up from now and with those 2 powers which will require this size discs if they are to be used to their full potential it will definantly need Blu-Ray if not Fluorescent by the end of 2010/11 and at the rate of which games are developing it looks likely that Nintendo will have a new amazing anti-piracy format i know i've blathered on but Nintendo have made some dramatic changes with the Gamecube that are steps in the right direction like squasre giving the GDAA the FF liscence and working on Unlimited Saga for the PS well looking at how the most anticipated game in Japan is FF X-2 and taking the popularity from that and all the tens of millions that will buy a gamecube purely for hat in the future and if we can hold onto other franchises like Metal Gear Solid and working them with Nintendo, games that are equal or better than the graphics of FF the Spirits Within dont look that far away mainly due to that ALSO being created on Maya like almost everything else is OH and why has everybody forgotten about Final Fantasy Unlimited on GC? when it was anounced alongside CC? I dont think it deserves to be ignored even though it hasnt had much media coverage but the anime series was one of the highest quality.. Honestly.

pedhead01 · « **Reply #65 on:** March 06, 2003, 07:00:15 AM »

What one must remeber is that gameplay has the power to overcome even the most dated graphics. That is why games like Tecmo bowl and other NES games remain so popular. And that is why I love Nintendo, they focus on gameplay! Of all the gamecube titles I own only two are out on other platforms (Simpsons Road Rage, Time Splitters 2). The only reason I own them is because 1 I love the Simpsons and 2 Metroid Prime lacks a multiplayer mode, what a shame.

18 more days!!!!!!!

manunited4eva22 · « **Reply #66 on:** March 06, 2003, 10:14:20 AM »

Rick: My post was badly worded. I meant to say PC games only had 1 DVD game.

manunited4eva22 · « **Reply #67 on:** March 06, 2003, 10:18:17 AM »

cube: that may be the longest run on sentence I have ever seen. Could you split that up a little bit?

[o]CUBE · « **Reply #68 on:** March 06, 2003, 10:19:23 AM »

But this way nintendo has the advantage of astounding graphics at their disposal plus their excellent game making techniques as everyopne knows which should make a kisser combination

theaveng · « **Reply #69 on:** March 07, 2003, 03:17:10 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: RickPowers
Some games that came at the END of the PlayStation's life span were on FOUR discs. That STILL can fit on a SINGLE DVD. By your logic, most games should be one two DVDs NOW, but won't be getting any bigger in another three years. It just doesn't work. Game size doesn't increase exponentially as years go by.

If you look at the sizes of games, you'll notice that each new generation picks up where the last left off:
Atari 2600 - 2K to 32K
Original Nintendo - 32K to 512K
Super Nintendo - 512K to 4 megabytes
Nintendo64 - 4 megabytes to 64 megabytes

In each generation, the smallest game was equal to the largest game of the previous generation. If we assume that trend continues, we can make an educated guess that the PS2's smallest game will equal the PS1's largest game... 4 CDs or ~2400 megabytes.

By year 2, PS2 games would hit 4800 megabytes (like FF10). This is year 3 of the PS2, and already the 8500 megabyte DVD has been maxed out by Xenosaga. Would anyone be surprised to see a 17,000 megabyte/dual DVD game in Year 4? Not me. There's a definite demand for Blu-Rays or similar ultra-large discs.

mouse_clicker · « **Reply #70 on:** March 07, 2003, 03:45:11 PM »

"By year 2, PS2 games would hit 4800 megabytes (like FF10). This is year 3 of the PS2, and already the 8500 megabyte DVD has been maxed out by Xenosaga."

Keep in mind that the larger games of the current time are generally laden with FMV. Xenosaga is not actually filled with 8.5 gigabytes of pure gameplay- FMV, I'm sure, takes up a huge portion of that size. BUT, since the quality of console graphics has risen exponentially, there's been less and less need for FMV. In a couple generations, no one will use FMV- it'll be more expensive, take long, and produce results that are little better than in game graphics, if at all. That'll free up a TON of space for actual gameplay, and when the day coems thyat a disc is filled with more than 8 gigabytes of pure gameplay is the day we spend literally years playing the game.

Anyway, I don't know if anyone's mentioned this, but has anyone heard of Panasonic's new venture? They're said to be designing a disc that will hold roughly 10 TERAbytes of information (that's about 10,000 gigabytes, or about 10,000,000,000,000 bytes). They're not even planning on maknig availalbe to consumer for like 10 years, but I thought it was interesting. Supposedly it uses soem type of holographic layering device.

Tsunekazu · « **Reply #71 on:** March 07, 2003, 05:24:02 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Christberg
Go and compare the price of a DVD recorder and a regular DVD player for your computer and then think about it some more. If you go back 2 years ago, the cost of DVD recorders was ridiculously high, in the several thousand dollar range.

Not quite. I've had a DVD-RW/CD-RW since they were first introduced at MacWorld in Feb. 2001. It wasn't cheap, but the computer itself was only 3 grand. Keep in mind, this was not only the first computer to ship with a DVD-RW/CD-RW, but also the first to ship with a GeForce3, so the price of "new hardware" wasn't all in the drive. It's been more than 2 years since it's seen the several thousand dollar range.

Quote
The drive itself can't really be much more expensive to manufacture than any other drive, honestly. The only thing different is the type of laser used, and a proprietary interface but that doesn't really change the cost either.

That's questionable. A big plus for the Toshiba/NEC format is that it can use the same manufacturing process as red-laser discs, so they won't have to use any different plants. Exactly what is required for Blu-Ray, I am not sure, but from my understanding, it needs to be manufactured differently.

Quote
Once again though, I'm hoping Nintendo goes with a smaller disc form factor to help decrease piracy even more because around 2007 or so recorders for this thing will be affordable enough that piracy could be a real problem for them, kind of like the PS2.

The question remains: How well did it really work? For a disc that no one else should be able to make, we have the Freeloader and Action Replay which not only work on Gamecube, but even can be set on the fly for region. To me it sounds like the system has been broken. What would've been a simple way to prevent boot discs? A slot-loading drive with forced-restart when you hit the eject button. There are many simple ways to deter piracy, but considering mass storage is likely for Nintendo's next console, they will have a much greater battle ahead of them than discs.

Quote
Besides which, does anybody really think they'll need another DVD player by 2005? I sure hope not.

It depends on how quickly HD-DVD progresses. We're supposed to see an HD-DVD player and movies by the end of this year, but people are saying that 2005 is more likely. So the early adopters get it, the ones who have the HDTVs to take advantage of it, and then the general public becomes interested by summer 2005. Say consoles launch in fall 2005, including a HD-DVD player might be a huge selling point. It's all "what-ifs" right now, but don't rule anything out. A DVD player helped jump-start PS2 sales in Japan, who knows what may work in a few years.

theaveng · « **Reply #72 on:** March 08, 2003, 06:03:54 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: mouse_clicker
"By year 2, PS2 games would hit 4800 megabytes (like FF10). This is year 3 of the PS2, and already the 8500 megabyte DVD has been maxed out by Xenosaga."
Keep in mind that the larger games of the current time are generally laden with FMV.....

Yes, I knew someone would say that, but I don't see what relevance it has. Whether a game is 8.5 gigabytes of FMV or 8.5 gigabytes of program, the game still uses and requires all of that storage space. Nothing's changed.

As for your prognostication that someday FMVs won't be necessary, I agree. But I don't expect that to happen until the distant future (2010), and so don't consider it relevant to the *current* present situation: DVDs are full... HDTV-quality video requires ~4 times as much storage space as standard video... therefore some new storage media needs to be used. Blu-Ray has the potential to be that new media.

I fully expect we'll see a dual-layer, dual DVD game (17 gigabytes) before the end of the PS2's life. Maybe Final Fantasy 12 or Xenosaga 2. Blu-Rays would be ideal for such games.

mouse_clicker · « **Reply #73 on:** March 09, 2003, 01:30:13 PM »

The only relevance in that it's 8.5 gigs of FMV is that in the future FMV won't be necessary, making 8.5 gig games very, very rare. I realize that it'll be a loooooong time before FMV will be completely unneccessary- that's why I said "a couple generations", which I think will be no sooner than 2010. I'll be very surprised if we get two or three more consoles down the line by 2010.

RickPowers · « **Reply #74 on:** March 09, 2003, 02:35:29 PM »

Quote
The only relevance in that it's 8.5 gigs of FMV is that in the future FMV won't be necessary, making 8.5 gig games very, very rare. I realize that it'll be a loooooong time before FMV will be completely unneccessary- that's why I said "a couple generations", which I think will be no sooner than 2010. I'll be very surprised if we get two or three more consoles down the line by 2010.

Exactly, as graphics get better, there will be less and less need for pre-rendered video, and more cutscenes will be done in-engine. FMV is incredibly costly in disk space as compared to in-engine instructions.

News:

Author Topic: Is this a glimpse of the future? Blu-Ray Disc ... (Read 46583 times)