You sound like if Nintendo put out a bowl of milk, you would be that timid cat underneath the deck, unsure if it's a trap.
My needs are much simpler. All Nintendo has to do is demonstrate an incentive, other than HD, that qualifies the price of admission. Whether that's a touchscreen controller, or more interestingly, a console hub with the ability to stream games -- the concept has to be proven.
So pretty much by E3, I'll know if I'll buy it or not.