Author Topic: Not a hater but... (future prediction)  (Read 43501 times)

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Offline Fatty The Hutt

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #200 on: February 24, 2017, 02:22:45 PM »
I've ordered a little case thing, so i'll just keep it in there.
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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #201 on: March 02, 2017, 04:03:43 PM »
It's Switchmas Eve and we are about to start the journey of discovery. Before we do, I'd just like to take a moment to double down on my predication regarding the Switch's success. These past couple of months have only served to solidify my belief that... the Switch can not compete with mobile phones in the portable gaming market, it is too under powered to compete with MS/Sony in the home gaming market, there is precious little third party support, it (plus games/accessories) is way too expensive, Nintendo have massively failed to capitalise on their IP library and the final product is very poor value for money.


I had fairly low expectations for the Switch, yet somehow Nintendo has managed to sail completely under them.


There are changes that could be made to give the Switch a fighting chance, however the people running Nintendo continue to show that they are absolutely clueless when it comes to running a successful company so I hold out little hope for them turning it around.


I hope Nintendo has a strong E3.


I hope if the Switch performs as badly as I think it will, it will lead to drastic changes in who is running Nintendo and how the company is run. Fortunately Nintendo has enough capital that even if the Switch fails they can still continue making consoles and games.


The one variable that could throw my predication off is... Pokemon. If Nintendo restrict Pokemon to the Switch, it could significantly boost sales (from 15-m to 25+m), but they may also realise that there is more money to be made by shifting Pokemon to mobile devices.


It will be an interesting 24 months (we should know conclusively by then, if not sooner), and I for one will be playing the Switch throughout that time, I just don't expect many others to be doing so also.




Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.




 
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 04:06:24 PM by Miyamoto »

Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #202 on: March 02, 2017, 04:14:48 PM »
Oh my god, just shut up already. I don't even care that you're pessimistic about the Switch, there are valid reasons to feel that way right now, but you could do it without being a complete asshole.
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Offline pokepal148

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #203 on: March 02, 2017, 05:48:59 PM »
I'm not a Hater but I'd like to take this time to gloat about how I've been a Hater since 2016.
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Offline Evan_B

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #204 on: March 02, 2017, 06:02:44 PM »
Oh god it's all crashing down before my eyes, mere hours before release.
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Offline ThePerm

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #205 on: March 02, 2017, 06:03:33 PM »
I predicted Ouya was going to fail. I still bought one. It was fun while it lasted.

I don't think I would have got into Unity and back into programming if it wasn't for the Ouya.
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Offline Evan_B

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #206 on: March 02, 2017, 06:29:04 PM »
Does anyone think Zelda is gonna fail? I mean, Neal gave it a 9.5 and that's worse than Epic Yarn. If a Zelda game can't beat Epic Yarn, I just don't know anymore. I can't trust literally every other news outlet, either. The signs are all coming together!
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Offline nickmitch

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #207 on: March 02, 2017, 07:08:45 PM »
Anything less than a metascore of 100 means absolute failure.  Neal saw to that with his "9.5".  He knew what he was doing.
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Offline Ian Sane

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #208 on: March 02, 2017, 08:27:03 PM »
I don't like to gloat about negative predictions because those are usually situations where I want to be wrong.  In my life in general, not just Nintendo stuff which is pretty unimportant in the grand scheme of things, I'm frustratingly good at recognizing the first signs that everything is going to **** and then being right about my prediction.  But that's not something to brag about, that's like a curse.

I really like the idea of the Switch in theory but right now Zelda is all it seems to have going for it.  I was never going to buy it because after numerous underperforming consoles I don't trust Nintendo to support them right off the bat at full price.  But I honestly would say that since I own a Wii U and can play Zelda on it, I wouldn't see any point in buying a Switch at launch even if I had a really enthusiastic attitude about Nintendo.

So here is really weird situation where the system seems to have a lot of problems and is arguably being released in an unfinished state... and it launches with a game that is getting such positive reviews that it will be in the discussion as one of the greatest games every made.  So how much does having the ultimate killer app make up for shortcomings in almost every other area?  Can the Switch overcome all of this on the strength of one game?  Sounds hard... but Nintendo pretty much did that already with the Wii.

Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #209 on: March 02, 2017, 10:07:47 PM »
Does anyone think Zelda is gonna fail? I mean, Neal gave it a 9.5 and that's worse than Epic Yarn. If a Zelda game can't beat Epic Yarn, I just don't know anymore. I can't trust literally every other news outlet, either. The signs are all coming together!

Yeah but aren't 95% of games released worse than Epic Yarn? Epic Yarn has been the industry standard for so long now because it is such a high bar to clear. Even though a game like BotW may not be able to reach its heights, I think we should still appreciate a game that, while obviously lacking in many ways, will still have an hour or two worth playing in it and celebrate those few moments even if we wish that we were playing Kirby instead.

Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

Dude, there have been a lot of other people who predicted Nintendo's failure all the way back in 1991. It took you 25 years to piece it together? That's nothing to gloat about. It's a sign that you need to learn to read signs faster.
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Offline ThePerm

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #210 on: March 02, 2017, 10:29:35 PM »
If Yooka Laylee comes out in April or May will it seem like the system is so bad? I know it's not an exclusive, but when you put Mario, Zelda, and the successor to Banjo Kazooie, then you have a really solid first 9 months.

Bonus to all the indie games like Fast RMX, Snake Pass, and then AAA games like Skyrim.

Then you got Splatoon 2, and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for all those people who never bought a Wii U.

If I were a betting man there might be ports of Monster Hunter and Resident Evil on the way for Christmas.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 10:33:21 PM by ThePerm »
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Offline Luigi Dude

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #211 on: March 02, 2017, 11:14:28 PM »
So here is really weird situation where the system seems to have a lot of problems and is arguably being released in an unfinished state... and it launches with a game that is getting such positive reviews that it will be in the discussion as one of the greatest games every made.  So how much does having the ultimate killer app make up for shortcomings in almost every other area?  Can the Switch overcome all of this on the strength of one game?  Sounds hard... but Nintendo pretty much did that already with the Wii.

Well I just got back from Wal-Mart with Breath of the Wild.  There was over a dozen people in line in front of me, and all of them except one bought the Switch and Zelda.  Now there was a few people behind me, but I was the only person there when I left that bought the Wii U version of Breath of the Wild.

So based on just the store I was at, Breath of the Wild has an over 90% attachment ratio with the system.  So yeah, that pretty much shows how the public views Breath of the Wild.  Outside of the insanely hardcore Nintendo fanboys like myself that actually bought a Wii U and have no problem waiting to buy a Switch since we can still play Zelda on the Wii U, everyone else wants a Switch for Zelda.
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Offline pokepal148

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #212 on: March 03, 2017, 12:50:20 AM »
Does anyone think Zelda is gonna fail? I mean, Neal gave it a 9.5 and that's worse than Epic Yarn. If a Zelda game can't beat Epic Yarn, I just don't know anymore. I can't trust literally every other news outlet, either. The signs are all coming together!

Yeah but aren't 95% of games released worse than Epic Yarn? Epic Yarn has been the industry standard for so long now because it is such a high bar to clear. Even though a game like BotW may not be able to reach its heights, I think we should still appreciate a game that, while obviously lacking in many ways, will still have an hour or two worth playing in it and celebrate those few moments even if we wish that we were playing Kirby instead.

Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

Dude, there have been a lot of other people who predicted Nintendo's failure all the way back in 1991. It took you 25 years to piece it together? That's nothing to gloat about. It's a sign that you need to learn to read signs faster.
There are probably people who predicted Nintendo's failure back in the late 1800s when Nintendo was doing trading cards.
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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #213 on: March 03, 2017, 01:20:35 AM »
Oh my god, just shut up already. I don't even care that you're pessimistic about the Switch, there are valid reasons to feel that way right now, but you could do it without being a complete asshole.


The (admittedly) bad attitude comes purely from me making a rational prediction based on clear evidence and then being roundly disparaged for it just because it didn't fit in with what people here wanted to happen. The gloating comes from the fact that a number of people here (yourself included) have shifted from calls of "you're wrong, you're wrong" to "OK, you might be right but shut up". If you had a bit of backbone or basic humility to hold your hands up and say "Hey, it looks like you might be right", I wouldn't feel the need to come here and point out the fact.
 

Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #214 on: March 03, 2017, 01:23:47 AM »
I predicted Ouya was going to fail. I still bought one. It was fun while it lasted.



This is how I feel about the Switch. I've got one on the way right now.




Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #215 on: March 03, 2017, 01:28:53 AM »

Dude, there have been a lot of other people who predicted Nintendo's failure all the way back in 1991. It took you 25 years to piece it together? That's nothing to gloat about. It's a sign that you need to learn to read signs faster.


Anyone who predicted Nintendo's failure in 1991 would have been quite wrong. In the the time between now and then, the company has enjoyed enormous success and has sold well in excess of 300 million portable and home consoles. I am talking specifically about the Nintendo Switch. There is a very big  difference, although I accept that this does somewhat diminish the point you are hoping to make.




Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #216 on: March 03, 2017, 02:33:33 AM »
I don't like to gloat about negative predictions because those are usually situations where I want to be wrong.  In my life in general, not just Nintendo stuff which is pretty unimportant in the grand scheme of things, I'm frustratingly good at recognizing the first signs that everything is going to **** and then being right about my prediction.  But that's not something to brag about, that's like a curse.


Just to be perfectly clear (in case it wasn't obvious), my gloating is not so much based on me being right, and it certainly isn't at Nintendo doing poorly, it's at so many people in this thread giving me a hard time and then being about to be proven wrong. The gloating could have been entirely avoided if people in this thread had not been so antagonistic and then so silent when they started to see what I have seen for a good few months now.


I'm not punching the air with joy at Nintendo making bad decisions. I really want them to succeed, I can't stress that enough, but they have to start doing things right first.




Offline ThePerm

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #217 on: March 03, 2017, 03:22:10 AM »
I predicted Ouya was going to fail. I still bought one. It was fun while it lasted.



This is how I feel about the Switch. I've got one on the way right now.


I have to say though, that unlike the Ouya the Switch has a behemoth of a company behind it. Julie Uhrman had no idea what she was doing.

If I were to talk about the history of Wii U and why people weren't interested in it...the thing I heard most was "well, the Wii U looks interesting, but I'm not going to buy it until Zelda comes out"

The Zelda game is finally out. But I don't think it's going to sell mainly Wii Us. I think a big reason why the Wii U didn't sell that well is there was a whole lot less value in the system. There wasn't any big draw titles.

Switch has been out for 3 hours and it already sold 16% of Wii Us total sales. To make a comparison it took Wii U six weeks to sale 890,000 units.

But lets forget about that. This thing is a handheld.
3DS 65 million so far (5 year span)
DS 154 Million  (12 year span)
GBA 81 Million
GameBoy 118 Million.

I think people should really consider Nintendo in the realm of handhelds in the same realm as Sony in consoles in sales. And it may not seem like it now, but once all the teams drop what their doing on 3ds there is going to be a lot more games coming.

and Pokémon. The implications. Think about it. A new 3d pokemon game comes out from the middle of nowhere with some features that surprise everyone. Sony and Microsoft look around, what do they see? Nothing but blue ocean. Their market just gets gobbled by the PC and steam machines “Oh, there’s nowhere for me to run, what am I gonna do, copy Nintendo?”

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Offline rygar

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #218 on: March 03, 2017, 08:18:52 AM »
Lol! Did you short the stock or plan on doing it at some point? If the market follows your predictions from Switch failure to massive dongle/mobile platform success, you could make huge money both ways if you play it right. That would be a lot better then (premature) gloating.

the Switch can not compete with mobile phones in the portable gaming market

Is there a viable market for a dedicated gaming tablet? I'm interested as a consumer because I really want a new line of those types of devices and I am hoping the Switch demonstrates at least a niche demand. Rather than a dongle, what about a device a tablet could fit into? Maybe the best case scenario for me would be Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft all offering devices that can supplement a tablet.

Offline Fatty The Hutt

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #219 on: March 03, 2017, 08:35:20 AM »
Are all you folks just gonna let this utter talking-out-of-his-ass garbage stand?
Alright fine, I'll tear it down. I gotta do everything for you kids
*grumble grumble*

there is precious little third party support
Yup, nothin' to get on the doomed Switch
Nuthin' at all

Nintendo have massively failed to capitalise on their IP library
Yeah they don't know what the **** they're doing with their IP
not at all

Nintendo continue to show that they are absolutely clueless when it comes to running a successful company
Can't argue with that
you are clearly right
 
Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

I think Insanolord speaks for all of us when he says

Oh my god, just shut up already.
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #220 on: March 03, 2017, 08:48:41 AM »
Even if it fails by whatever metrics you want to use (sales compared to Sony or Microsoft, sales compared to other Nintendo systems), if it has lots of fun games then it succeeds in my heart.
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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #221 on: March 03, 2017, 10:20:42 AM »
There is a very big difference, although I accept that this does somewhat diminish the point you are hoping to make.

Not really. My point was just a tongue-in-cheek comment that there have been plenty of people saying Nintendo will fail for years whether it be with the Sega Genesis coming out or the DS vs PSP first year battle. Although you may be focusing on the Switch only in your prediction, it doesn't change the fact that it's nothing new or shocking. Even when the Switch was unveiled there were still people on other sites complaining about it. You just want to make your prediction more valid by saying you looked at some "evidence" so that your prediction is of greater worth than a kneejerk reaction by some anti-Nintendo fanboy on the internet saying the same thing in order to try and lord it over other people that also predicted a Switch failure.

But the capital of Mexico is Mexico City. If someone asks you what the capital of Mexico is and you look it up on Google, consult maps of the world, check it out in an encyclopedia, read through the entire history of Mexico, travel to Mexico City to see it for yourself and interview thousands of Mexicans to make sure before finally answering that it is Mexico City based on the evidence you have collected, it doesn't make the answer any less valid than someone who may guess "Uh..Mexico.... City?". It's still the same correct answer.

However, the difference in that illustration is that it is very easy to know Mexico City is the capital of Mexico because it is a fact that has been established for decades. You, however, are gloating on something that has still yet to be proven. It's the first day the Switch is even available for sale to the public but you act and talk like its the end of the Switch's lifespan and your hypothesis is fact. It's still a bloody unproven guess. Gee, why do other users get upset with my prediction of Switch failure? I guess they're too sensitive and blinded by their Nintendo love. That has to be the answer and not at all because there is still no actual sales proof to my claim. Quit jumping the gun. If you want to gloat, wait a year or two when you've got real evidence. That's why no one is taking you seriously and are getting pissed off at your "gloats". In your desire to declare yourself First to Predict the Switch Will Fail prize (which has absolutely no value at all), you keep harping on your claim like its fact while also stating that in "24 months (we should know conclusively by then, if not sooner)" acknowledging that nothing has been proven yet so why do you feel the need to keep acting like it is fact?

I like how you try to really emphasize how "genius" you are. You predicted the Switch would fail all the way back in 2016 like it was a year ago you came up with this idea. Well, it was Dec. 4, 2016 when you created this thread. So, just under three months ago at this point. I guess way back in 2016 sounds sexier than three months ago. To hedge your bets, you give yourself an out that if Pokémon is released on the system than it will be a success. Moreover, what is failure? Is it strictly in sales only that you are judging this? GameCube was considered a failure because of its sales yet these days it seems to be judged as more of a success due to its game library. So, even if Switch doesn't sell well, if the games released for it are good, there are still going to be people arguing your claim of the Switch as a failure. Even the Wii U gets some love from people on here as being a top Nintendo system despite its failure in the number of systems sold.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2018, 07:35:57 PM by Linkle Link »
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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #222 on: March 03, 2017, 10:54:26 AM »
The (admittedly) bad attitude comes purely from me making a rational prediction based on clear evidence and then being roundly disparaged for it just because it didn't fit in with what people here wanted to happen. The gloating comes from the fact that a number of people here (yourself included) have shifted from calls of "you're wrong, you're wrong" to "OK, you might be right but shut up". If you had a bit of backbone or basic humility to hold your hands up and say "Hey, it looks like you might be right", I wouldn't feel the need to come here and point out the fact.

Oh my mistake. You're Forum Jesus here to shine your light of truth on these forums and getting persecuted for it. You just wanted to teach us a moral lesson on humility and humbleness. I totally see it now. Also, isn't backbone usually when someone stands up to a blowhard and is against their opinion by saying no, you're wrong and not agreeing with the blowhard and saying ok, guess I'll follow your lead? Seems to me Insanolord is showing backbone and has been pretty humble about it in that he hasn't felt the need to keep bringing up his opinion and bumping this thread unlike another less humble forum user here.

Just to be perfectly clear (in case it wasn't obvious), my gloating is not so much based on me being right,

No, that part was obvious since you have yet to be proven right.

Quote
and it certainly isn't at Nintendo doing poorly, it's at so many people in this thread giving me a hard time and then being about to be proven wrong.

In what way are they being proven wrong? Because, at the moment, the Switch is selling.

Quote
The gloating could have been entirely avoided if people in this thread had not been so antagonistic and then so silent when they started to see what I have seen for a good few months now.

Yes, how dare other people have an opinion different from you and argue against your speculations. Even worse, they didn't have the gall to try and keep gloating that they felt right about their opinion that the Switch can succeed while you kept gloating that it would fail even though it hadn't even been released yet. Isn't it awful how other people can feel they are right on a matter yet they keep silent because there isn't much else to say without any concrete facts to back up either side on the matter? They should be declaring victory anyways instead of acting like reasonable individuals. Silence can only equal defeat.

It reminds me of MysticGohan who predicted the Switch would have AMD chips instead of Nvidia. He kept bringing it up over and over because he thought he was right and had looked up and pointed to various evidence that he thought proved his point. The rest of the forum got tired of arguing with him over it because it was just speculation and he clearly wasn't changing his mind on the matter. Didn't mean other users suddenly thought he was right or that they realized they were wrong. There was just no reason to further the conversation or argument because it was just guesswork and there was nothing concrete to add. When the specs were finally released and there were actual facts, it turns out MysticGohan was wrong despite his being so sure he'd be right. To me, you seem to be headed down the same path.

Of what value is it to keep arguing with you? In this thread, there have been plenty of occasions where people have brought forth reasons for disagreeing with you. None of those changed or swayed your mind just like your speculation didn't sway people of the opposite opinion. Why keep talking to a brick wall? Might as well just stay silent and do something better with our time. You, however, seem unable to accept that silence and want more attention focused on you so you feel the need to keep bringing up this thread and your prediction and then act all high and mighty when people still disagree with you. That's why people are antagonistic to you. It's not just because of your prediction but on the personality you put forth through your posts on these forums.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2017, 10:58:54 AM by Khushrenada »
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Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #223 on: March 03, 2017, 10:58:15 AM »
Oh my god, just shut up already. I don't even care that you're pessimistic about the Switch, there are valid reasons to feel that way right now, but you could do it without being a complete asshole.


The (admittedly) bad attitude comes purely from me making a rational prediction based on clear evidence and then being roundly disparaged for it just because it didn't fit in with what people here wanted to happen. The gloating comes from the fact that a number of people here (yourself included) have shifted from calls of "you're wrong, you're wrong" to "OK, you might be right but shut up". If you had a bit of backbone or basic humility to hold your hands up and say "Hey, it looks like you might be right", I wouldn't feel the need to come here and point out the fact.
 

I don't think anyone was definitively saying you were wrong, just that it was (and still is) way too early to be talking about this as if anything was definitive. You were acting like it was completely dead and done before it even came out, which is as obnoxious as it is premature.
I'm kind of a snarky bastard.

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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #224 on: March 03, 2017, 04:09:28 PM »
Thank you for taking the time to reply but these really are too wordy to read through let alone reply to, so I'm just going to assume that you've all made some very good points. Well done. Oh, except the delusional poster who tried to argue that the Switch had decent third party support. I mean, c'mon dude. No. But to the others, honestly, thanks for taking part. Do try not to take it all too seriously though.


I'll probably come back to this thread periodically as news regarding how well the Switch is doing starts to trickle through.


In the meantime, I now have a Switch of my own. The hardware has actually exceeded my expectations and the first hour of Breath of the Wild is, of course, superb. My only gripes thus far are: the placement of the plus/minus buttons and the fact that it is very bare-bones at the mo, although this will of course be fixed in time. Oh, also I love how easy it is the switch [click] between my European and Japanese accounts.


Please feel free to keep posting comments on this thread. It would be a shame for it to disappear. So until next time... Happy Switch Day!!!!!!


« Last Edit: March 03, 2017, 04:11:23 PM by Miyamoto »