Author Topic: Not a hater but... (future prediction)  (Read 47706 times)

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Offline Miyamoto

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Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« on: December 04, 2016, 03:30:17 AM »
I don't think the Nintendo Switch will be a success. I think third-party support will be non-existent and even though Nintendo already has a library of thousands of games over three decades, they will choose to either not make it all readily available or charge too much for it. I think people looking for a home console will favour the PS4/Xbox One and I think people looking for mobile gaming will favour their phones. I think the Switch will struggle to reach 15 million lifetime sales and in five years Nintendo will release a new console which is essentially a super stripped down dongle for $80 that has media services and budget gaming (which by then will be fine) and an IOS/Android phone suite for mobile gaming.




Offline Luigi Dude

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2016, 04:17:30 AM »
Only 15 million LTD sales, what the ****? :confused;

Seriously, the Wii U has managed to sell over 13 million in 4 years and Nintendo fucked that system up in nearly every way possible.  The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup) and third party support sound better at least right now then it was with the Wii U where you had some third parties outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them.  So far nothing that bad has come from third parties on the Switch.

Plus you seem to forget this is basically a hybrid that will be combining all of Nintendo's resources so the handheld won't be eating away at the home console anymore since both will now be the same.  You can't forget the over 60 million 3DS owners that this thing is going to be appealing to since it's a 3DS successor as well.

The only way the Switch does that bad is if Nintendo pulls a Sony and makes it $599 US Dollars and then refuses to drop the price for 4 years like they did with the Wii U.  They wouldn't literally have to go out of their way and intentionally sabotage the system like Sega did the Saturn to get numbers that bad because the hype alone is already much greater then the Wii U's was before launch.
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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2016, 04:23:50 AM »
third party support sound better at least right now then it was with the Wii U where you had some third parties outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them.


Which third parties?




Offline Adrock

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2016, 12:08:00 PM »
The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
I'd even put hardware on there. I'm not even talking about power though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance which is nothing short of a miracle on a handheld. The fact that Nintendo finally ditching PowerPC is one of the most important things going for Switch. Almost everything supports ARM these days. That decision alone will save a lot of people a lot of headaches, both at third parties and within Nintendo.

Anyway, even before January's full unveiling, at this juncture I consider anything less than 3DS-family sales to be underperforming for Switch. Underperforming also doesn't mean failure. If it ended up with 50 million units sold, that's still good, but it should still sell more. After next year, Switch will have almost all of Nintendo's first party output. To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2016, 12:26:38 PM by Adrock »

Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2016, 12:24:00 PM »
We really don't know enough about the system right now to do anything but guess. Even if you take the most prominent rumors as fact, there's still so much about the system we don't know.
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Offline Adrock

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2016, 12:35:11 PM »
Even with more information, we'd still just be guessing. That said, for reasons already stated, I just can't see Switch struggling to reach 15 million lifetime sales.

Offline Steefosaurus

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2016, 01:00:01 PM »
Anyway, even before January's full unveiling, at this juncture I consider anything less than 3DS-family sales to be underperforming for Switch. Underperforming also doesn't mean failure. If it ended up with 50 million units sold, that's still good, but it should still sell more. After next year, Switch will have almost all of Nintendo's first party output. To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

Idk about this, I mean granted I'm by no means an expert and don't really follow sales much. But hasn't 3DS moved like, 60 million units? Do consoles outsell handhelds usually? (I'm asking because I wouldn't know!)
Given Nintendo's track record with things like N64, GameCube, Wii U wouldn't something in the 30-40 mill frame make more sense? I don't know if it's really going to take off like Wii did to be honest.

If people really start using Switches out of the house so they're visible in public, they have fun unique games as well as the ones people want (shooters, sports games, western RPGs), then yeah I could see it being successful. Definitely think you're right that it will surpass Wii U, but it will need to do so fairly quickly if they really want it to catch on.


Things like battery life, durability and lightning-in-a-bottle moments of tapping into whatever cultural zeitgeist is relevant at the time all seem like (at this point) still very uncertain aspects. Hoping to be wrong here but I definitely understand why people have reservations.

Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2016, 01:27:27 PM »


The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance


So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
 




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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2016, 01:47:45 PM »
So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar?

The difference there is Switch is going to have more than one year at the roughly same level of power as its contemporaries. Developers already had PS4/Xbox One devkits by the time Wii U was out, whereas they're going to be supported for several years after Switch launches. If it's as easy to port to from those systems as has been indicated and it doesn't totally bomb saleswise early on publishers are going to be a lot more inclined to support the thing than they were the Wii U.
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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2016, 01:53:13 PM »
Don't get me wrong, I really want the Switch to be a success, and I'd love to be posting here in a couple of years time about how I got it massively wrong, but I find it really hard to be optimistic. Everything is telling me this isn't going to work out. It's one thing for publishers to be able to easily port games to the Switch but will they do it if games fail to sell on the console?




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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2016, 01:59:51 PM »
If it's as easy to port to as we've heard, the bar of how much those ports need to sell to be worth it is going to be substantially lower than it was on Wii U, and if Nintendo gives it the strong push it needs to sell well early on the higher user base than Wii U had will prompt publishers to give it more chances. That's a lot of ifs, and I'm not totally convinced they'll be able to hit them myself, but I think there are valid reasons to be optimistic that they'll do better this time.
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Offline Agent-X-

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2016, 02:34:13 PM »


The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance


So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.


Mind share is currently strongly going in the Switch's favor. I've been surprised most by who is talking about the Switch. FYI: Everyone saw Nintendo's teaser trailer, and people are honestly talking about it whenever the topic of games comes up. I don't just mean in a little circle of gamers but out in public and around the office (I work for a cloud technology company). The talk while not universally glowing shows interest exists, and people are genuinely interested in it as a portable they can play on their TV.


I'm not the biggest fan of the Switch for the same reasons you're listing. However, the vibe I'm getting is not totally unlike the one the Wii had. This device has got sales potential.


Another factor I think should be considered is that since the Wii U tanked so badly, a lot of gamers turned to purchasing the other console to go with their initial console pick up (ie. bought a PS4 and then bought an XB1, and bought an XB1 so bought a PS4 later). The thing I'm hearing now is that these multi-console owners are saying they're likely to sell one of their consoles and get a Switch. As someone else on here had pointed out before, the NS has tremendous opportunity to be the "and console" to everyone else's PS4 and XB1 primary purchases. I am now coming around on this belief because most hardcore gamers don't want to miss out on Nintendo's stable of games. They're just waiting for Nintendo to re-enter their market with something that doesn't feel like a huge gimmick.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2016, 02:38:59 PM by Agent-X- »



Offline ThePerm

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2016, 02:35:49 PM »


The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance


So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS3 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
 





No, Nintendo has never released specs for the Switch. We don't know if it's weaker or more powerful. We know it will be more powerful than Wii U, which in some ways was better than ps4 and xbox 360, and in some ways more powerful. Based on the processor line, Switch is likely to have more advanced processors than either xbox one or ps4. The amount of ram is a question though. Xbox One is $249 right now and has 8gb of RAM. The Switch is going to have a screen, so that could make the cost more, however it is likely to have a generic screen, which could bring the cost down, The switch will not have an optical drive, and that will bring the cost down.

The Shield is the best thing to compare it to. The shield is/was nvidia's product that came in handheld, console, and tablet form. Right now the Shield Tablet costs $199. Switch is likely going to be very similar to the Shield hardware wise, but likely much more powerful because Shield Tablet is 2 years old now.

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Offline Adrock

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2016, 01:35:32 AM »
The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance
So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
That's some pretty egregious selective quoting there. If that's how you're going about this discussion, count me out.

Offline ThePerm

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2016, 03:48:03 AM »
third party support sound better at least right now then it was with the Wii U where you had some third parties outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them.


Which third parties?







There is no confirmed list of games, but many of these franchises were either on nVidia Shield or were on Wii U, Wii, and 3ds.

Bethesda Skyrim and Fallout, also owns ID software who make the Doom series
Take-Two GTA, Red Dead, NBA
Square-Enix - Final Fantasy, Tomb Raider, Kingdom Hearts
Konami - Metal Gear, Castlevania, silent hill (but mostly pachinko games because the executives went batshit)
Capcom - Street Fighter, Resident Evil, Mega Man, Dead Rising
Ubisoft -Assassins Creed, Beyond Good and Evil, Rayman, Prince of Persia
Koei-Tecmo - Dynasty Warriors, Dead or Alive, Ninja Gaiden
Sega - Sonic, Virtual Fighter, House of the Dead, Shenmue(likely exclusive to ps4)
Bandai Namco - Tekken,Soul Calibur
WB - Mortal Kombat, Batman/Arkham games
EA - Madden, Battlefield, Star Wars
Activision- Call of Duty

I'm pretty optimistic about many of these games coming to Switch that wouldn't normally be on Nintendo platforms. nVidia was able to get many of these games on Shield. A few of these on the official list have stayed the hell away from Nintendo platforms, seeing them on board is a positive sign.
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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #15 on: December 05, 2016, 07:33:28 AM »
If it's as easy to port to as we've heard, the bar of how much those ports need to sell to be worth it is going to be substantially lower than it was on Wii U, and if Nintendo gives it the strong push it needs to sell well early on the higher user base than Wii U had will prompt publishers to give it more chances. That's a lot of ifs, and I'm not totally convinced they'll be able to hit them myself, but I think there are valid reasons to be optimistic that they'll do better this time.


The signs so far are not great. There's a lot of third party games confirmed for 2017 and nothing for the Switch. No "and other next gen consoles" nothing. The Switch will probably get a COD and a FIFA but it needs the full range of games coming to the Xbox One and PS 4 if it wants to compete on that level, which isn't going to happen.




Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #16 on: December 05, 2016, 07:35:58 AM »


The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance


So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS3 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
 





No, Nintendo has never released specs for the Switch. We don't know if it's weaker or more powerful.




Nintendo hasn't but enough developers have leaked information to make it pretty clear that the Switch is not going to be as powerful as the Xbox One / PS 4 and very far away from PS4 Pro / Scorpio.






Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2016, 07:36:47 AM »
The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance
So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
That's some pretty egregious selective quoting there. If that's how you're going about this discussion, count me out.


Duly noted. Goodbye.




Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #18 on: December 05, 2016, 07:42:15 AM »
third party support sound better at least right now then it was with the Wii U where you had some third parties outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them.


Which third parties?








When I asked which third parties? I was referring to the supposed third parties that "outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them." Which third parties did this? And as an aside, that list of third party support for the Switch really isn't very good. I'm sorry and I know all those logos look good but I really can't see third party support being any better on the Switch than it was on the Wii U. sure, we'll have a launch bump from Ubi, Activision, EA and a few others will port over a few games a piece that have been readily available for years on the other two consoles, then the well will start to dry up and we'll be right back to where we are now.

Offline supermario2k

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #19 on: December 05, 2016, 12:42:53 PM »
Realistic prediction, I honestly truly believe this thing will sell 80-90 million easy.
Modest Prediction, this thing is going to sell at least 50 million no question.
Prediction based on gut feeling and wishful thinking depending on news still to be released: 155 million, a slight stretch but doable.

There is no way this thing does worse than Game Cube, period. This already has hype. Game Cube had no hype, it was overshadowed by shortages and news reports of long ass lines of people still trying to get their hands on PS2. And it was overshadowed by the onslaught of Xbox marketing. This thing isn't even formally announced and it has hype and buzz building.

Wii U had not hype it had the opposite of hype, it's reveal had people either confused, or underwhelemed. It bombed, hard, because it was a mess from day one, no clear message, no real excuse to even exist. The only issue from Wii it "fixed" was HD which itself introduced a host of new issues.

Wii was not lightning in a bottle, it was NES 2.0, twenty years later. It had hype, it had nostalgia, it had a killer app, it was mass-market priced. The only thing it did wrong was being SD only and forcing waggle on games that would have been perfect if the Classic controller had been an option.

If Wii was lighting in a bottle, how did DS do so well? Everything in the market said it should have failed. It was a confusing product, it didn't fill a whole it only created a new platform that, at first, appeared to cater to a mass non-gaming market but then turned into the ultimate gaming platform, why? Because it did was gamers expected it to no more, no less.

That is the very formula that has made Playstation a success nearly without fault for 2 decades straight. You make the machine the gamers want, they buy it, game makers make games for it they sell rinse and repeat.

The Switch is the same formula it is Nintendo getting back to basics while recognizing the thing that saves them, their handheld market, is also the thing that is currently their downfall if they don't adapt. They finally woke up and realize their core market, that 80 million I keep quoting, doesn't care about specs, never have, they only care about a game player that plays games no bullshit.

N64 played games but was riddle with bullshit. First carts when the whole industry was going CD. This lost it major multimedia franchises not just Final Fantasy but GTA, Tomb Raider, Resident Evil (for the most part), Metal Gear, Silent Hill, those story based games that helped make Playstation the empire it is.

Oh but the factor we all forget about the **** of the N64, the elephant in the room, that godawful controller that you had to shell out TWICE as much money for as was typical of the day AND you had to have 4 of them. The downfall of the N64 was also the thing that saved Nintendo. I.e. that damn 4 player monstrosity. Sure *we* all loved the multiplayer games but what we failed to take into account, what Nintendo relied heavily upon despite our ignorance, was they could sell 1 person a console, get their friends to shell out the $50-60 bucks for their favorite color controller, buy *1* copy of the 4-player game and invite their friends over. So Nintendo could sell 30 million consoles but make their money off controllers and accessories, they didn't need 3rd parties they didn't need as many games. And when each game was $60-$70 they could milk their userbase for every penny. On the surface it backfired, it drove their core base away, but as perm pointed out to me many times over, no it didn't it just drove them to the handheld which was cheaper and everyone could buy the handheld, own their own personalized flavor, and only needed 1 friend with the console they could all share. The lack of true, deep, single player must have experiences led many to shift to the handheld or migrate to Sony.

Game Cube. Where do I start. No online was an issue but year 1, more than anything
Potential customer: These two play games *AND* dvd's, that one JUST plays games and mostly just Nintendo games, looks like PS2 has Nintendo-esque games anyways so there you have it, buy the DVD player that also plays games. Oh and it happens to be online too, sweet, oh and it plays PS1 games, and it ONLY costs $300 when that game only player cost $250, yeah no brainer.

Like it or not, accept it or not, not playing DVD's killed Game Cube period. Everything else Nintendo could have overcome, if they worked at it hell they barely sold just over 20 million and still managed to get dozens of quality, true exclusives that the other two missed out on. Nintendo did everything right with Game Cube except it didn't play DVD's., online wasn't a factor until near the end and by that point even if they had it it wouldn't have made a difference but not having the same size disk and not being able to play movies, at least for that first year or two out, cut off any chance it had.

So far, there is no major bullshit stopping people from looking at the Switch and going, why bother?

There is nothing holding it back. It might force you to use SD cards, well every single device that ISN'T made by Apple already does that, so what? Do you not own an SD card? Liar.

Battery life? This is not 1992 when you had to shell out cash for AA batteries. This is 2016/2017 where everyone, EVERYONE carries multiple devices and multiple charges on them at all times. Hell most devices charge using, USB, another port that not only does everything have, but this thing also supports itself. You take your Switch to the office, no need for a charge plug it into the USB of your PC, at the air port stick it into a wall charger, on a bus, why the HELL are you on a bus?

The people looking at this negative, the people who are saying this sucks or this will suck, I get the sense that most of them are the same people who just complain up front whenever a Playstation that doesn't bear the name Nintendo is announced and whenever a Nintendo machine that isn't just a Playstation that bears the name Nintendo they have to throw a fit.

The SNES was regarded as one of the greatest consoles of all time and that son of a bitch sold less than the much maligned Xbox 360 and the shameful PS3. And the hated PSP. And the supposedly not doing well 3DS. I guess people just like to bitch.

I honestly cannot think of 1 legit reason to be skeptical other than fear, irrational fear of whatever. Maybe Nintendo will find a way to Nintendo it up, but I doubt it, it seems to me they finally realized the truth, they have 1 userbase that easily equals if not exceeds their rivals if they could just tap into it right. I think they did that here. I could be wrong, we could all be wrong. These are just my insane ramblings for you all to ponder.

But regardless its just a toy. No matter how well it sells or doesn't sell at the end of the day IT IS JUST A TOY.

Offline ThePerm

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2016, 07:39:10 PM »
I own like 10 SD cards. I own several usb flash drives. External Hardrives. We heard rumors it wouldn't use external hardrives. Maybe not on the go. I doubt Switch will not have features that Wii U had, especially with nvidia in charge of the hardware and operating system. Old rumors had that NX could connect with practically anything.

The n64 controller is underrated. I still have never enjoyed many ports as much. My only complaint is the joystick, which suffered easy wear(but was easily fixable by taking it apart, dumping out the dust and scum and putting it back together) If you play a 3d game, hold the game by the middle prong, if you play a 2d game hold the controller by the left prong. The controller was very ergonomic despite looking really weird.

Bethesda, Epic, EA, and Take 2 being on it are signs it should have some pretty decent 3rd party support. Epic being on it, and it being more modern means Unreal 4 runs on it. Unreal 4 actually ran on Ouya, which was weaker than Wii U. Epic was just disinclined to make a wii u port. Switch is about 3 Tegra generations above Ouya.

Take-Two President Karl Slatoff  said  "The folks at Nintendo are making a great effort to support third-party developers, we're very optimistic on the Switch though we are not announcing anything specific today"

Jen-Hsun Huang, President of nvidia says making ports will be "simple" because "all of these architectures are common in the sense that they all use modern GPUs, they all use programmable shading, and they all have basically similar features" The biggest problem developers had with Wii U was that it was considerably weaker than PS4 and xbox one, and they would likely have to change the game to add touch screen features. This time there is far less resistance. Also, does anybody remember AMD doing much to promote a Nintendo platform since the Gamecube days?  I don't and I think nvidia gave Nintendo a sweetheart deal to get ahead.

Read this article
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonevangelho/2015/03/04/theres-one-big-thing-preventing-nvidias-shield-console-from-greatness/#38e328317222

A big problem listed in this article was that Shield lacked first exclusives. 2 years later, we'll have an improved Shield re branded as Nintendo console with exclusive Legend of Zelda

its prophetic.


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Offline Soren

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #21 on: December 05, 2016, 07:50:35 PM »
I think all those words sound nice, but I don't begrudge anyone for taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" stance. Words from 3rd parties really don't mean much at this stage. I also want to see Nintendo take active support in making western engines like Unreal work on Switch.
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Offline supermario2k

  • Totally not The Rat. Really.
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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #22 on: December 05, 2016, 08:30:55 PM »
Well to Soren's credit I do have old magazines listing developers and games that NEVER did **** on the Game Cube so yeah skepticism is warranted but I think optimism is jusfied this time.

Offline Oedo

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #23 on: December 06, 2016, 02:09:27 PM »
If Switch can deliver a true portable gaming experience (or ends up being able to deliver one with a revision) and becomes the new home for 3DS heavy-hitters like Monster Hunter and Pokemon, it's a reasonably safe bet to hit 15 million units sold in Japan alone. Nintendo lost a lot of gamers with the jump from DS to 3DS in all of its major markets, but they did manage to keep the majority of them in Japan (about 65% based on the lifetime sales numbers of both systems). I think whatever significant damage mobile gaming was going to do to portable gaming on dedicated game systems has already been done in most parts of the world and Japan already saw much less of an impact with this generation.

Offline Miyamoto

  • Only person correctly capable of predicting the Switch's demise
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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #24 on: December 07, 2016, 01:46:54 AM »
If Switch can deliver a true portable gaming experience (or ends up being able to deliver one with a revision) and becomes the new home for 3DS heavy-hitters like Monster Hunter and Pokemon, it's a reasonably safe bet to hit 15 million units sold in Japan alone. Nintendo lost a lot of gamers with the jump from DS to 3DS in all of its major markets, but they did manage to keep the majority of them in Japan (about 65% based on the lifetime sales numbers of both systems). I think whatever significant damage mobile gaming was going to do to portable gaming on dedicated game systems has already been done in most parts of the world and Japan already saw much less of an impact with this generation.


Anyone who listens to the Famicast will tell you that portable gaming is now dominated by phones in Japan. That is not a trend that is going to be reversed anytime soon. The Switch has two major problems, the battery and the fact it's six times the size of a mobile phone. This console will not replace the mobile phone for the vast majority of commuters. There is, however, huge potential for Nintendo franchises to do very well on phones and that is where the future of Nintendo portable gaming lies. It's just going to take another generation for Nintendo to realise this.