I just don't think Nintendo's style of games lend themselves very well to a big epic blockbuster type that dominates the other two. I think they hit their peek with Game Cube, they know this, and the best they can do now is bring that level into HD and hope for the best.
I honestly don't think anyone can truly predict what Nintendo is going to do because I think even Nintendo themselves are clueless as to why one thing works one time and not the next. But to be completely honest, NX is their last chance to get back into the game proper, if they fail again their brand image will be far to tainted to ever make a real come back, they will have to resort to chasing Wii gamers forever and that business model relies too much on dumb luck.
There are rumors that Sega is about to get back into the hardware game, not on the scale of what the other three are doing but what I read of it sounds more like what Nintendo should be doing, a cheap, retro style console that relies heavily on their own catalog and caters to their core demographic.
If they want to chase the hard core mainstream crowd forget it that is a losing battle, there has always only been room for one dominant console the other two fighting it out for second place, Sony pretty much figured out back in 1995 how to be that dominant console and they made ONE misstep along the way, that that quickly rectified. Nintendo has had ONE hit based entirely on blind luck to get them through and sticking to their guns on the handheld arena.
BUT if they ignore the Call of Duty/Madden/Grand Theft Auto crowd and make a console like Wii, cheap to make and cheap to make games for, with traditional controls, a name that doesn't alienate their audience, and strictly focuses on a balance of retro and modern Nintendo only stuff they will find their audience. To compete they need to be cheap and stick to their guns, this is a strategy that works for them, trying to be on the same level as Sony does not work for them because they cannot go all in. Even with Game Cube they skimped on the hardware, it was mostly on par or better than Ps2 but DVD, no serious online component and the lunch box design all turned gamers and developers away in droves.
If they refuse to go all in, then they HAVE to dig their heels in and stand their ground, and a console that closely unites their handheld division is the best they can do then that is what they will do. What they really need though above ALL is a damn traditional controller and a name that doesn't piss people off.