Topic: Something Something Wii U Successor Somethng

[smallsharkbigbite]

We'll see.  I think Nintendo is uncharted territory with a very unpopular console and operating losses.  I think they are going to do something drastic.  I don't think that means moving towards third party yet, but we'll see.


Why would they want to destroy their most successful part?  Everything they touch in the handheld arena turns to gold.  I'm just not sure why they'd want to do that and there is no reason to believe that getting 3DS games onto the Wii U would solve the Wii U's problems (in fact many of those games are already there).  Plus, I don't see the market moving that direction.  Microsoft isn't interested in handhelds and they are trying to get everything connected to the cloud so they don't need a future of handheld machines to make that happen.  Sony tried and will probably not make another handheld after the Vita failed to reproduce the sales of the PSP. 

[Ian Sane]

If Nintendo was to attempt to replace the Wii U mid-generation, backwards compatibility is a must to smooth things over with existing Wii U owners who would likely be pissed off that their new console only lasted two years.  But then the whole reason to do so is because it isn't selling so it's not like tons of people would be affected.  Odds are Wii U owners would be the hardest Nintendo fans to offend.

I've thought of an idea where they release a successor but have some setup where there is also an add-on that turns a Wii U into the successor console.  This all assumes that they two consoles build off each other and that the concept is technologically feasible.  All the marketing goes to the standalone which is what's in stores while the add-on upgrade is like an online order only thing for the existing customers.  The concept lets existing Wii U owners upgrade for a lower price.  But that does seem like a lot of work to appease a small group of people.  Would cutting off the Wii U early turn enough customers off of Nintendo to worry about it?

[BlackNMild2k1]

Nintendo making a hybrid handheld would bring the success of the handheld to the tv, like you said, thier handheld sector is gold, this would be spreading that wealth.

3rd parties are already on board with the handheld. Sony is the only other handheld and Nintendo is getting squeezed out of the traditional console, so a hybrid would be a type of drastic measure that would make sense.
And it still leaves the door open for releasing a traditional console to replace the "TVbox" down the line, knowing that a majority of gamers already have the controllers in hand, and that additional controller to pack in would be much cheaper to produce by then.

based on your own argument above, I think the Hybrid handled/console makes more sense. Nintendo would own the whole handheld market while also keeping their got in the door of the console market at the same time as strengthening their smart box app game.

They would unify their game development efforts, most 3rd parties are already down with Nintendo the handheld arena, more resources can be put toward VC , ware, apps, dlc, cloud, more games, assisting other developers, establishing more partnerships/3rd parties, etc etc.

It just makes so much sense that I honestly think Nintendo might do what you suggested instead.... :/ how depressing. Why do you have to be this way Nintendo!!?

[smallsharkbigbite]

I knew I shouldn't respond because this would digress into another handheld argument that has been beat to death.

I really couldn't disagree more with pretty much every thing you think will happen with a handheld/hybrid. But I've already responded in other threads to those as have others about the serious shortcomings so i'll not add them here. Lets just stay realistic. Wii U loses money now. You want to double the specs and shrink it into a handheld?  You want to bump the tablet to HD and add multi touch?  Lets talk about a $700 hybrid /console  not a $200 console. I cant be the only one who knows the Wii U is more powerful than an ipad. Also take the # of 3DS Nintendo games divide by 4 because console development is much more resource intensive than handheld. Might as well forget about handheld third party support being a bonus because it sucks compared to PS3/Xbox360 support.

Ian - it's not only current Wii U owners. People that would consider their next console will probably think maybe I should wait 2 years to make sure they don't dump this console as well. But things are pretty bad with the Wii U so they may feel they have no choice to move on. The greater problem still would exist. How do you get people that won't buy a Wii U to buy the next one. It's not an easy answer.

[Ian Sane]

Ian - it's not only current Wii U owners. People that would consider their next console will probably think maybe I should wait 2 years to make sure they don't dump this console as well. But things are pretty bad with the Wii U so they may feel they have no choice to move on. The greater problem still would exist. How do you get people that won't buy a Wii U to buy the next one. It's not an easy answer.

It's a tough situation no matter what.  Either some people will be afraid Nintendo will abandon their next console too early or the Wii U limps along for five years and kills any relevance Nintendo has in the console sector.  Sticking with a bomb for too long isn't a good idea either.  Realistically having any sort of unsuccessful product is going to hurt your reputation so Nintendo just has to go with what they feel will be the better option.  And if they're actually losing money on the Wii U then they have no choice, public perception be damned.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I knew I shouldn't respond because this would digress into another handheld argument that has been beat to death.

I really couldn't disagree more with pretty much every thing you think will happen with a handheld/hybrid. But I've already responded in other threads to those as have others about the serious shortcomings so i'll not add them here. Lets just stay realistic. Wii U loses money now. You want to double the specs and shrink it into a handheld?  You want to bump the tablet to HD and add multi touch?  Lets talk about a $700 hybrid /console  not a $200 console. I cant be the only one who knows the Wii U is more powerful than an ipad. Also take the # of 3DS Nintendo games divide by 4 because console development is much more resource intensive than handheld. Might as well forget about handheld third party support being a bonus because it sucks compared to PS3/Xbox360 support.

First I'm talking about 3 years from now. Shrinking the Wii U with maybe a bump in processor speed or/RAM. Never said anything about doubling the specs. I called it a Wii U++ (streamlined and refined) in portable form. If Sony can get the Vita out at a reasonable price with multi-touch now w/o taking a loss, then there is no reason Nintendo shouldn't be able to do the same with a WiiUportable in 2016.

And 3DS 3rd party support may not be the holy grail that PS360 have now, but it sure as hell beats what the Wii had and certainly better than what the Wii U is getting. Take better than Vita specs and Nintendo's Handheld presence & market penetration, mixed with being the only real option for portable gaming. Top that off with being able to play the games on the TV without having to buy a super expensive 2nd console (just like VitaTV - yes Sony is already doing it), the ability to play those same games multiplayer with in expensive controllers you likely already own (wiimotes) or with other handheld owners on your TV, and I think we have a very interesting experiment here.

Nintendo already built a new facility to bring the Handheld and console guys together under one roof and probably one development manager. It makes sense to think that they would want to further integrate the console and handheld experience. The Wii U is already a tester for the concept of a handheld/console hybrid. Connectivity is something they've been testing for over a decade. Taking the Wii U to the next level and putting the meat of the console itself into the controller and making the controller it's own stand-alone unit sounds like the logical next step. Much more so than another failed attempt at directly competing with Sony & MS in the home console market where 3rd parties have more or less let them know that they don't really want to support a Nintendo console.... for ummm, reasons.

So I'm not sure what other arguments you made that debunk the validity of such an idea in other threads, but the ones you've made here don't really seem like they would put the idea off the table.
I really don't see how leveraging the success of the handheld into the long time failing home console market is "destroying their most successful part" Especially since it doesn't rule out the release of a real home console to replace the "TVbox" portion of the hybrid (or did you just skim my version of the hybrid handheld/console? it's a 2 part piece of machinery).

[nickmitch]

It'll be hard for Nintendo to even launch a new home console with three still on the market, come to think of it.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Seriously.

I think Nintendo will ride this out for atleast another year, see if they can right this ship.
Another price cut next year, some big game announcements, a surprise or 2 later...
If Xmas 2014 is as bad or worse than this year, desperation will force their hand and they will announce something for release end of 2015.

That will be 4.5yrs into the 3DS life cycle. right about the time a successor should be coming anyway. Will Nintendo rush another console out the door? Will they push the successor to the 3DS? or will it be a little bit of both?

sounds like time for a new Poll Thread.

[ShyGuy]

Thinking about it, would a unified development platform have the same benefit? Compatible hardware between the console and the handheld, and the same dev software. An eshop get released on one would be cross compatible and share one license.

So if you bought HarmoKnight 2 on the 4DS you could play it under your NNID on the Wii 3 and vice versa.

Obviously, some titles would be console exclusive because of the horsepower, but this would solve the software support issue for the console, at least in part.

[BlackNMild2k1]

If they could get enough horsepower in the next handheld, then having a development engine like UNITY where you essentially code the game you want and then "click a button" to compile it for certain hardware, then yes a unified development system could have similar effect if the 2 consoles allowed crossplay. Crossplay would probably require a digital purchase though (or a registration code that linked the game to your account forever).

[ShyGuy]

For better or worse, I expect digital purchase to dominate across all platforms next-gen.

[Kytim89]

Would the hybrid be one system or two separate ones? What Nintendo would is release one system similar to the Wii U in that the handheld (4DS) comes with the system. Nintendo could just re-brand the Wii U Pro controllers as the exclusive controller for the home console. By the time this happens wi-fi should be able to allow streaming of home console to the handheld console.

[Ian Sane]

Thinking about it, would a unified development platform have the same benefit? Compatible hardware between the console and the handheld, and the same dev software. An eshop get released on one would be cross compatible and share one license.

So if you bought HarmoKnight 2 on the 4DS you could play it under your NNID on the Wii 3 and vice versa.

Obviously, some titles would be console exclusive because of the horsepower, but this would solve the software support issue for the console, at least in part.

I'm worried that if it not literally the exact same machine that runs the same physical or digital copies of the game that we'll get Sony's handheld problem where having the same game on both the console and handheld makes one of them redundant in the eyes of the consumer.  If Nintendo did this I think the console would just bomb because Nintendo's big games would be on the handheld so why bother getting the console?  I think just having similar games on the 3DS like NSMB 2 and Super Mario 3D Land has hurt the appeal of the Wii U.  Having literally the same game would be even worse.

Console games used to provide an obvious improvement over the handheld experience.  You dealt with more scaled down games to achieve portability.  Once the two can provide the same experience the need for the separation is gone.  Going back a gen with the Wii has put their consoles only one gen up on the handheld when it used to be two.  The GBA wasn't going to be able to have similar games to the Gamecube but the 3DS can have pretty similar games to the Wii U.  So why does anyone need the console if it provides no obvious advantage?  That's why I think having the systems one-in-the-same makes sense, unless Nintendo wants to give their consoles the obvious advantage.

[Spak-Spang]

My thoughts:  Nintendo CAN NOT Dreamcast themselves.  If Nintendo prematurely ends the Wii U then they are signaling their weakness in the console market completely.  The Wii U will be viewed as a failure and anything Nintendo tries to do will be viewed as a risk.  It will basically KILL their console market completely.

That said, Nintendo could try to create that hybrid Bridge console/portable.  Basically they would need to be able to shrink a Wii U into a portable device, like Black and Mild suggested late 2015 is the EARLIEST this could happen  However holiday season 2016 is more likely.  It would have given the 3DS a long life before the transition would have ironed out the unified account system.  It would give time to make technology cheaper.  However, by then I am afraid even a Wii U powered handheld would appear weak on the market.  I guess an upgraded processor and RAM (much like the iPad style updates) would work. 

Now, I re-read Adrock's original post.  The steam integration is brilliant.  Valve wants STEAM in the living room.  Nintendo wants 3rd parties.  If Nintendo could just base their newest operating system using Linux, then they can be a steam box.  Right out of the box, this allows Nintendo to have 3rd party support.  They don't have to beg for it.  Or ask for special treatment or exclusives or anything.  They just get it.  Also, they get steam's online community and infrastructure.  However, implementing this would be hard...and I don't think Nintendo would like to share their 3rd party profits like that. 

[nickmitch]

Wouldn't Steam integration have the same problem as launching a new console that you just mentioned?  I mean, putting Steam on the Wii U kinda says that Nintendo needed to artificially create 3rd party support.  Plus, that means splitting profits with Valve.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I'd rather they split profits than not have 

[ShyGuy]

If Nintendo did a consolidated software platform, it would be like Dell selling laptops and desktops. Most people need only one and some people buy both.

[ShyGuy]

What about this: Nintendo releases the 4DS in 2015 with a 5 inch 480p screen.

Then in 2016, instead of releasing an 4DS XL or 4DS Lite, they release the 4DS DELUXE with a 7 inch 1080p screen (with enough horsepower to run the games at that resolution) and a TV dongle.

[Spak-Spang]

Nickmitch:  Not at all.  It would be viewed as a feature, and Nintendo aggressively seeking out 3rd party partnerships in a manner that supports gamers.

I know I would buy a Nintendo if it meant I could have steam sales and games in my living room along with exclusive Nintendo games on one single system.  However, this would drastically change the market for selling games on Nintendo systems.  Nintendo would have to adopt Steam like pricing for games, so would 3rd parties...and Nintendo would potentially have to lower game prices and provide similar type Steam sales.  This to me would actually prove a huge benefit for Nintendo but Nintendo may view it as a liability.

[smallsharkbigbite]

First I'm talking about 3 years from now. Shrinking the Wii U with maybe a bump in processor speed or/RAM. Never said anything about doubling the specs. I called it a Wii U++ (streamlined and refined) in portable form. If Sony can get the Vita out at a reasonable price with multi-touch now w/o taking a loss, then there is no reason Nintendo shouldn't be able to do the same with a WiiUportable in 2016.

So I'm not sure what other arguments you made that debunk the validity of such an idea in other threads, but the ones you've made here don't really seem like they would put the idea off the table.
I really don't see how leveraging the success of the handheld into the long time failing home console market is "destroying their most successful part" Especially since it doesn't rule out the release of a real home console to replace the "TVbox" portion of the hybrid (or did you just skim my version of the hybrid handheld/console? it's a 2 part piece of machinery).

There's a search portion on this site.  Check it out sometime.  Alot of threads degrades into portions of the same argument.  http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/forums/index.php?topic=42455.50

I don't see it as leveraging at all.  I see it as killing off the handheld portion of the business and hoping that your console portion becomes successes.  I like Adrock's idea of being able having saves transfer and having the portable buy a game and having it auto download for the main console.  That's a neat idea. 

I just don't see a hybrid as innovative.  It's a solution for a problem that doesn't exist.  Want to play handheld games?  There's a 3DS.  Want to play console games, there's a Wii U.  They are different because the markets for those items want different things.  A 3DS meets the demands of the market perfectly.  To shrink hardware you always pay a premium.  To develop a game for a 50" 4K 3D TV (where the console market is going) you are always going to have too much power in a handheld.  Parents have proven they won't spend $250 en mass to fit their children each with their own game system.  You are pushing things on the handheld market they do not want.  $150 for a 3DS is perfect for what the market expects.  The handheld market doesn't want to pay $60 for 4K games when they were happy with their $30 games.  And I don't know how the console market benefits either.  PS4/XBO owners aren't clamoring for ports of those titles or they'd likely get them.  I don't see $60 copies of Layton moving Wii U's. 

Technology in general will get cheaper, but I don't think we are 3 years away.  Processors aren't increasing at the rate they used to and we are reaching the points of economical feasibility to keep shrinking them.  The Vita is certainly no home console.  I do think it's funny though, one of the biggest knocks on the Wii U is it is under-powered.  But we expect people to accept limited handheld power as a trade off of a hybrid system when the console market has never asked for less power? 

You are solving a problem that doesn't exist.  The problem is and always has been Nintendo's interactions with third parties.   Can they salvage that?  Yes, they can.  Will they?  Probably not because Japanese companies are very stubborn. 

[smallsharkbigbite]

Steam integration is a unique feature, but I don't see Steam going for it without maintaining all the profits.  It would be Steam's store and their servers.  They already have the infrastructure in place and they don't really need Nintendo.  Steam is growing in size each year and basically owns the PC market.  If Nintendo allowed Steam, no-one would license with them directly.  They would just create Steam games and advertise that it was playable through a Nintendo console.  I don't see how this wouldn't negatively affect Nintendo profits more than just paying third parties to develop for their system.  It's like if Nintendo would have given up their on-line to EA except with less control and less profits. 

[smallsharkbigbite]

My thoughts:  Nintendo CAN NOT Dreamcast themselves.  If Nintendo prematurely ends the Wii U then they are signaling their weakness in the console market completely.  The Wii U will be viewed as a failure and anything Nintendo tries to do will be viewed as a risk.  It will basically KILL their console market completely.

I'd rather Nintendo not Dreamcast themselves, but the market is painting a pretty grim picture right now.  The Wii U is already viewed as weak in the market by the competitors and third parties and generally most analysts rip it daily.  I don't think it's makes Nintendo weak to come out with a better product that meets consumer demand.  Nintendo did make the virtual boy.  They moved on and now completely own the handheld market.  And I say that as someone who owns a Wii U and would be a little ticked if they killed it. 

[Spak-Spang]

I understand the logic behind separating the two markets. 

Which is why my original idea was not a hybrid system.  But two systems, that are perfectly linked...and all games are available to both...this is done by creating games that can be scalable...like most PC games are.  And since you are only scaling them to 2 standards it should be relatively easy.

It also means you can keep the handheld touch based which is a strong enhancement for gamers, and move the console to be the refinement and perfection of motion controls. 

I think the Wii U moving away from motion was a mistake.  Though, I understand Nintendo's thinking, and in the long run it might be a good decision.  It means that Nintendo fans can use all their expensive Wii controllers for one more generation, and then Nintendo can pump out the next refinement in motion controls with its next console. 

I think the Classic control Pro for Wii U is a perfect controller, and as such from here on out should be the standard controller Nintendo uses and should be 100% future forwards for all Nintendo systems.  Nintendo should advertise this fact NOW. 

Then new motion controllers should be created.  The controller should be packaged as one unit will all attachments needed.  Nunchuk + Wiimote motion ++ whatever it is called...all together.  Nintendo should really push also with the sensor bar to do stuff that the Xbox Kinect can do.  This would allow for some very good precision Motion games. 

I will not restate my original post, but clarifying the distinctions of the controls for the console and handheld help prove the concept of 2 consoles.  Also, it doesn't mean those two systems couldn't have exclusives when it is required for control purposes, but the goal would be to promote 3rd parties and 1st parties to build into their games compatibility for both systems and when you buy the game digital or cartridge you can play it on both systems. 

[smallsharkbigbite]

Which is why my original idea was not a hybrid system.  But two systems, that are perfectly linked...and all games are available to both...this is done by creating games that can be scalable...like most PC games are.  And since you are only scaling them to 2 standards it should be relatively easy.

Would you charge the handheld market $60 for the game since it cost the same to develop?  Maybe cross-buy for all purchases would help minimize that.  Physics would be another thing that may be difficult to scale.  Certainly a better option in my opinion than a hybrid and I could see market moving towards something like that in the future.  Sony I feel has somewhat tried that strategy with the Vita although not quite to the degree you are suggesting. 

I think the Classic control Pro for Wii U is a perfect controller, and as such from here on out should be the standard controller Nintendo uses and should be 100% future forwards for all Nintendo systems.  Nintendo should advertise this fact NOW.

Can you take Reggie's place?  I don't know if there is a vote for something like that, but I would vote for you.

[Spak-Spang]

Most games don't need really big physics in there game.  How many games is that a huge deal really?  And no, I would not charge $60.00 a game.  I think games are costed too high, and an aggressive Nintendo pursuing sales would lower console games to $39.99-49.99. 

All games that have cross-console play would be priced with the higher price tag of $39.99  and prices for console or handheld that only played on those systems would be $39.99.  Then digital VC games would all be cross console and be positioned at the higher price.  So 5.00 NES/Portable Games  10.00 SNES  15.00 N64  20.00 Gamecube ect.  Of course sales could happen as well. 

Also concerning physics.  Nintendo could just create tools to assist in their creation.  The Nintendo created tool assets can have handheld and Console modes, and can be frequently updated as new improvements are made.