OK, now to break it down:
Game of the Year - I'd toss out AC3 and Mass Effect 3, and in their place I'd put Xenoblade and Mark of the Ninja. This has been the Year of the Downloadable Game, so I think a 3-2 downloadable to retail would be a perfectly accurate view of the Industry this year. My pick from my modified list would be Xenoblade, and my pick from the actual list would be The Walking Dead. It's hard to say how this one will go this year, but I think Mass Effect 3 will win out because it's Spike TV and Mass Effect 3 has lots of shooting.
Studio of the Year - I'd toss out 343 Industries (c'mon...Halo 4 just came out, and it's not even a Game of the Year contender), and in their place I'd put either ThatGameCompany (Journey) or Monolith Soft (Xenoblade). My pick from my modified list would be Xenoblade, and my pick from the actual list would be Telltale Games. Of these 4 studios, I think 343 Studios will win because it's Halo (though to their credit, I'm playing the game right now and it seems pretty well-made so it might be warranted).
Best Xbox 360 Game - Out with the multiplatform titles (everything but Halo 4), in with the downloadable titles (Dust: An Elysian Tail, Mark of the Ninja, FEZ). My pick from my modified list would be Mark of the Ninja, and my pick from the actual list would be Dishonored. However, Halo 4has this sewn-up because...you guessed it: it's Halo.
Best PS3 Game - Likewise, out with the multiplatform titles (everything but Journey), in with the PlayStation 3 exclusives: Starhawk, Retro/Grade, Tales of Graces F. From this modified list, I'd go with either Starhawk or Journey, and my pick from the actual list would be Journey. Picking the actual likely winner on this list is actually pretty tricky, but I think Spike will be inclined to give it to Assassin's Creed 3 because it's a bigger title than Dishonored and I don't think that game will win more than 1-2 other categories
Best Wii/Wii U Game - I don't like Wii U games being on this list either, but let's be honest: if they didn't do this there would only realistically be 2 games on here worth being nominated for Wii Game of the Year: Xenoblade and The Last Story, with possibly Rhythm Fever Heaven as a 3rd pick. As you might guess, I pick Xenoblade as my winner here, and Spike might actually give the win to it. No, sorry...just joking. There's a Mario game in the list, so that'll win even if it's not out yet.
Best PC Game - This is actually a pretty good list, but I give it to XCOM: Enemy Unknown. However, Diablo 3 will be Spike's pick.
Best Shooter - Another good list, and from my time with it I give it to Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, which will also be Spike's pick.
Best Action Adventure Game - After tilting my head a moment at largely FPS Dishonored being called as "Action Adventure game", I'd give this one to Dishonored, but it won't win. The fix is already in for Assassin's Creed 3 from Spike.
Best RPG - a mostly predictable list, though I'm surprised to see Xenoblade get any love at all here. Naturally, Xenoblade wins my vote, though shooter Mass Effect 3 will get Spike's.
Best Multiplayer Game - OK, I'm sure it's a good MMO, but Guild War 2 gets knocked off the list for me and gets replaced by Starhawk, which also gets my vote. From the actual list, I'd probably go with probably Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 just due to the sheer amount of multiplayer content there. This is the Call of Duty award for good reason, and it will continue to be Spike's recurring pick.
Best Individual Sports Game - I don't care, but this looks like a decent list. Spike will pick SSX.
Best Team Sports Game - Ditto. Spike will pick Madden NFL 13. Because it's Spike.
Best Driving Game - This looks like a decent list, but I don't care who wins. Need for Speed Most Wanted will probably be Spike's pick.
Best Song In Game - I wish I could remember more vocal songs in games this year, but aside from the Linkin Park song this seems a decent list. "I was Born for This" from Journey is my pick (though that Beck song is really good, it's only really good in the context of the level it was designed for), and considering all the love for Bastian last year I could see Spike picking it as well.
Best Original Score - I'd throw out Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 and Max Payne simply because I haven't played enough of one and none of the other. In their place, I'd put Retro/Grade and Starhawk. My winner is the same either way, though: Journey. I think Spike will agree.
Best Graphics - This has been and always shall be a BS category, and AC3 and Dishonored being on this list is a joke. I'd probably put Asura's Wrath and Xenoblade in their place for variety, but oddly enough I'd probably have to go with Halo 4 as my winner on this due to the fantastic art design from the former Metroid Prime guys. I also think Halo 4 will be Spike's pick.
Best Independent Game - I don't have a problem with this list, and Mark of the Ninja's my pick. I think Spike will pick Journey.
Best Fighting Game - I really don't care who wins (though I'd pick Persona 4 Arena), but this seems a decent list. Spike will pick Dead or Alive 5 because...girls in skimpy outfits.
Best Handheld/Mobile - OK, LittleBigPlanet and New Super Mario Bros. 2: OUT. In their place, Uncharted: Golden Abyss and Final Fantasy Theatrhythm. Sound Shapes would also be out in favor of Paper Mario: Sticker Star. From my modified list, Final Fantasy Theatrhythm would be my winner. From the actual list, I'd go with Sound Shape. Spike will pick New Super Mario Bros. 2 because it's a Mario game, regardless of quality.
Best Performance By a Human Female - Seems a decent enough list, and Jennifer Hale as FemShep gets my vote. I think Spike will agree, as she's won this award before IIRC.
Best Performance By a Human Male - None of the people on this list really struck me with their performances, though I suppose Dave Fennoy gets my vote since he is pretty good in The Walking Dead. I'm going to guess that Spike goes with him as well.
Best Adapted Video Game - Ok, what's Epic Mickey 2 doing here? What, exactly, is that game "adapted" from? I'd put The Amazing Spider-Man in its place, and either way my winner is The Walking Dead. It will be Spike's as well.
Best DLC - Granted, this wasn't the most inspired year for DLC but nothing on this list jumps out at me so I voted for Portal 2...because. Dawnguard will get this for Spike.
Best Downloadable Game - Good list here, though I'd putMark of the Ninja over FEZ any day. I'd give this one to The Walking Dead. Spike will probably go with Journey.
The Rest: Outside of Most Anticipated Game (Bioshock Infinite), I don't really care.
Overall, this is probably the least-offensive list Spike's actually put out. Hell, PC games are actually represented this time! I still have no faith whatsoever that this will be a good show.