Topic: PlayStation4 - News/Rumor/Speculation - Over 1 Million Sold on Day 1

[Mop it up]

I imagine the reveals will be similar to the Wii U, they'll hardly show anything and leave people feeling confused and angry, and they will probably have been better off not showing anything yet.

[BlackNMild2k1]

So besides the BIG NEWS that Kaz "RIIIIIDGE RACER" Hirai is becoming the new President of Sony,
http://www.theverge.com/2012/1/6/2687339/kazuo-hirai-sony-president
Not sure how that would effect PS4.

rumor mill is saying that Sony may have a controller surprise to reveal....

previous comments about a touch screen dual shock not so far off after all?

[Chozo Ghost]

rumor mill is saying that Sony may have a controller surprise to reveal....

Sony ripping off yet another Nintendo controller innovation? How could that possibly come as a surprise?

[Lithium]

rumor mill is saying that Sony may have a controller surprise to reveal....

Sony ripping off yet another Nintendo controller innovation? How could that possibly come as a surprise?

maybe the surprise is that they thought up of something all by themselves

[BlackNMild2k1]

Well I wanted to believe that there was no way that Sony & MS was gonna be at E3 this year with an actual PS4 & Xbox720 ready to launch with completed software and pricing, but Pachter has put his opinion as a matter of fact on the table once again.....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngaudiosi/2012/01/06/zero-percent-chance-sony-will-show-playstation-4-at-e3-2012/

There’s been a lot of Internet buzz of late regarding an MCV story that states that both Sony and Microsoft will show off PlayStation 4 and the next Xbox at E3 2012 this June in Los Angeles. But according to videogame analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities, that’s not going to happen.

“I think there’s zero chance of a tease from Sony for PlayStation 4 and only a 20 percent chance from Microsoft that they’ll tease the next Xbox,” said Pachter. “Neither console is launching in 2013, so there’s no reason to tease them in 2012.”

Even Nintendo, which is launching its HD Wii U later this year, waited until E3 2011 to show off the device. Nintendo will also have the new console at CES 2012 in Las Vegas January 10-13.

...Which can only lead me to believe the opposite of whatever he has said.

[Lithium]

Master, your laptop batteries are getting low.
Master, there's a 20% chance that Microsoft will tease the next Xbox at E3.

[Chozo Ghost]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Pachter might be wrong many times, but that doesn't mean this couldn't be a time where he is right. The thing is, how can he possibly know? He doesn't. He is just taking a guess, and he is no more qualified to be making that guess than any of us. But that's not to say he might not be right, though. I guess we just have to wait and see what happens.

[Kytim89]

With the value of the dollar collapsing, the PS4 and Xbox 720 will not be as much of a graphical leap over the PS3 and 360 as those consoles were to their predecessors. The third party development studios would have to pay even more money to develop games for those consoles and how long do you think Sony and Microsoft's investors will tolerate the hemorraging of money in their video game divisions. One thing is for sure, Sony and Microsoft will not lose the amount of money they did this generation with their next generation. It is simply not economical.
 
The advent of the PS4 and Xbox 720 will one day be here, that is a certainty. However, if you want to know where the next genration battle is going to take place then look at portables and services, which include online retail and interactivity. The Vita and the 3DS will duke it out in a similar manner as the bigger home consoles, but for the first time in gaming history handhelds are going to overtake home consoles. How they do this is debatable, but look at how the gaming industry in Japan is moving towards  handhelds and even the western gamer is turning to IOS devices for gaming.
 
I do see Sony revealing a tablet controller for the PS3 and maybe Microsoft doing the same with the 360. I do not expect a new console from them no early then late 2013 to 2014. The Wii U will have atleast a year to fight the PS3 and 360.
 
No analyst or crystal ball BS intended. Just my two cents.

[nickmitch]

With the value of the dollar collapsing, the PS4 and Xbox 720 will not be as much of a graphical leap over the PS3 and 360 as those consoles were to their predecessors.

Those two things have nothing to do with eachother. The Xbox720/PS4 leap isn't gonna be as big simply because it can't be as big. The graphical leaps are destined to get smaller and smaller, but I forgot the name of whatever theory that is.

Edit: thanks, BnM.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Diminishing Returns*.

Graphics have a lot of room for improvement, but because it's already come so far, the greatest advancements in the next gen might not be all that noticeable unless you know what you are looking for.

Hair should look and move much better, actually animation in general will hopefully look better. Lighting will probably be something that we take notice of but not really know that we noticed until you do a side by side comparison with current gen.






*It's kinda like weight loss, where you make the largest improvements in the early times and progress slows and it becomes much harder to see any gains the closer you get to your goal.
So if you weighed 450lbs, you can easily lost the first 100-200lbs with the right amount of effort, but now that you are down to 250lbs, you realize that you work much harder to get less noticeable results.

[Kytim89]

The Vita is the closest thing we will have to a PS4 for atleast a few years. The real technological innovation that is going to take place in the future for the gaming is going to be with handhelds. With technology advancing there is plenty of room for developers to stretch their legs out with handheld games.

[Spak-Spang]

I think there are still quite a few advancements to be made.  Texture work, and number of polygons to create even more natural worlds.  Physics engines improving, better AI...and possibly more "thinking" AI will be possible with more power from the systems. 

That said, my question is do we need better graphics now?  Sure we all want to play a game that looks as good as Pixar films, but honestly that type of artistry is probably not possible in an interactive form.

I just want to play a fun game and I can do that now, so I really don't need more.

[Ceric]

We all know that Under the Hood there is vastly more you can do and make upgrades to but, what we all should acknowledge now is that the easy to quantify is hitting the steep portion of its diminishing returns.

[Chozo Ghost]

Physics engines improving, better AI...and possibly more "thinking" AI will be possible with more power from the systems.

This. Sure, there is still some room for improvement in graphics, but its at the point now where in my opinion graphics are good enough. You don't look at a PS360 game and think "man look at those shitty graphics!" and wish something better looking would come along. As BnM pointed out, most people wouldn't even notice the improvements anyway, unless there was a side by side comparison. If most people won't even notice anyway, then what is the point?

But as you said, the real room for improvement is in the non-visual stuff behind the scenes like the AI. We still have AI characters who are supposed to follow you but get lost or "stuck". This is something that needs to be improved. It would also be able to have more deep and meaningful interactions with characters, like being able to negotiate with store owners for better prices or whatever. Right now when games try to pull that off it just doesn't feel natural.

[Spak-Spang]

Chozo Ghost:  I agree.  Which is why I am surprised that Microsoft and Sony are so quick to push for new HD systems.

Honestly, I don't think the masses are worried about new systems as much.  Sure Nintendo needed to upgrade, and everyone can look at the Wii and say yes, the WiiU is a worthy upgrade to that console.  But what about the Xbox 360 or PS3 screams needs to be upgraded.

I was hoping console generations would start to last longer again...with these next systems or the ones after, it should be possible to make viable console systems that can last 6-8 years on the market without an upgrade.  Sure I could see DS like minor upgrades the systems, but that is all.

[TJ Spyke]

Spak, the Xbox 360 is 6 years old now and will be this fall. The Wii will be about 6 years old when Wii U launches, Xbox 360 7 or 8 years by the time its successor comes out and PS3 6 or 7. This gen is already longer than the last 3.

[Kytim89]

Spak, the Xbox 360 is 6 years old now and will be this fall. The Wii will be about 6 years old when Wii U launches, Xbox 360 7 or 8 years by the time its successor comes out and PS3 6 or 7. This gen is already longer than the last 3.

The global recession might have something to do with this.

[Spak-Spang]

Wow...time flies...then I take my statement and push it to 8 years.  I wanted to say that anyway, but felt a console lasting almost a decade is crazy...but seriously, why not?

If I knew I could play a console for 8 years without worry of upgrading I would spend that higher asking price.

[Chozo Ghost]

The Atari 2600 and Neo Geo hold the records for the longest lifespan consoles in history. I'm not sure which of those exactly holds the record, but its something like 14-15 years which would be more than twice what the 360 has been so far.

[TJ Spyke]

Yeah, but both of those received minimal support for like the last 9 years. It's like how Dreamcast kept getting games for years and years, though for all intents and purposes it was dead after 2.

[Kytim89]

There is a good chance that the PS4 could be the weakest of the next console generation. The reason I think this is because the only time Sony's consoles were ever successful was when they were the weakest on the market. The PS one and two were both weaker than their competiton and they still came out on top in the end. Sony may have realized that trying to win with sheer power is way too costly and might change their game plan acccordingly.
 
Microsoft will most likely have the more powerful system with Nintendo following a close second with the Wii U. I read some where that the Wii U will most likely be 50% more powerful than the PS3, so I could see the Xbox 720 being 60% more powerful than the PS3 with tit and the Wii U making a gradual increase in power to 70% with slim lined models and technological growth.

The biggest question about the PS4 is its storage medium. Will Sony make the PS4 with some kind of advanced blu-ray player? Will they made make a totaly new optical format for the system? It is doubtful that Sony would create a blu ray successor with the all the digital media distribution going on today. So, my gut tells me that the PS4 will be cartridge based like the Vita to curb piracy. They might even use the same technology to drive down costs. Now, what PS3 BC? Well, Sony did not prioritize BC with the PS2 when the PS3 came out, so anything can happen.

[Chozo Ghost]

with tit and the Wii

That's what she said.

[oohhboy]

In Breaking News PS3 10 year is set to continue.

Hirai said. “I’ve always said a 10-year life cycle for PS3, and there is no reason to go away from that.”

Is it really their actual plan? A publicity stunt? Marketing ploy to maintain current PS3 sales? Surprise launch? 2016 really? You decide!

[Chozo Ghost]

Sure it will have a 10-year life cycle, but some of that is going to be after the PS4 launches. Technically the PS2 is still alive because it is being manufactured, and there might even be games coming out for it. I'm sure Sony will continue to manufacture the PS3 for as long as people are willing to buy it, but that doesn't mean the PS4 isn't going to come out before that.

There is still a lot of room for price drops with the PS3. I expect there will be a further revision or two where they strip features out and try to makes things cheaper and use less components. One thing they might do for example is remove the built in HDD and instead include some built in flash memory which would be cheaper, while still allowing users to use external usb storage options as well. That's the approach Nintendo is taking with the Wii U, and when you look at the skyrocketing HDD prices due to the floods in Thailand it makes even more sense to want to ditch the HDD from the system in order to slash costs.

What else could Sony do to make the PS3 cheaper? Well, they could also introduce a wired dualshock 3 controller which would be cheaper because it would have the battery and blutooth capability stripped out of it. I could see that happening also.

[Roman]

This is what I was expecting, because there really isn't all that much that can be done to improve on the PS3's graphics even if that was Sony's objective. The graphical wall has been hit until holodeck technology shows up.

That is very wrong. Graphics can do much more. The problem is that it will cost far too much in both time and money to achieve them. PS360 leapfrogged in tech over the previous gen and cost skyrocketed because of it. We should just now be getting to that level of graphics in the console space if we want to keep things affordable, so it makes sense to slow things down a bit.

2 PS3's duct taped together will be a very capable machine. Especially if they stick a well thought out GPU in there this time.

Assuming this is true though, that really does leave the ball in MS's court.
Do they continue with the tech arms race towards real-time movie grade CG in hopes that Sony will continue to spend and compete? Or do they continue on their current path of expansion towards the casual market?

MS is on deck to show it's hand at E3 2012, Nintendo is already all in, but I'm not sure if Sony will be at that table too.

The new gadget will be more advance than the previous and the people will rush towards it and this will be the much better against all consoles and also its biggest competitor like 360.