Topic: Wii U Price and Release Date Guess Thread

[nickmitch]

Why would they want to delay until the holidays?

Companies are expected to have and subsequently project strong Q4 performance. If I had to guess, that would be why. Unlike 1996 with N64, Nintendo didn't delay wii U. They just never announced anything concrete allowing them the luxury of launching without a strict deadline. Launching in the busiest time of year when consumers are more willing to spend money does make sense, especially to investors.

There's also the opportunity for forced scarcity. Basically, you launch a new product in a high sales period and say, "We just can't keep up!" That would generally keep you in the media (free press) and make you a "must own." Basically what happened with the Wii, only on purpose. This however often doesn't work in electronics (see PS3).

Personally, I'm liking the idea of an August/September launch. Might be a little soon after E3, where all the beans would have to be spilled in an un-Nintendo fashion as someone mentioned earlier. But Nintendo would probably want to get production going early if everything else (eShop, games) was ready, unless they just decided to stockpile Wii Us which probably wouldn't be very smart. Plus, if the Wii U sells like the Wii, with mostly word of mouth/trying it at a friend's, then launching around then would actually let them maximize 4th quarter sales, provided that was enough time.

[Chozo Ghost]

Why would they want to delay until the holidays?

Companies are expected to have and subsequently project strong Q4 performance. If I had to guess, that would be why. Unlike 1996 with N64, Nintendo didn't delay wii U. They just never announced anything concrete allowing them the luxury of launching without a strict deadline. Launching in the busiest time of year when consumers are more willing to spend money does make sense, especially to investors.

I think you're missing my point. They have the holiday season ENTIRELY to themselves, so the holiday sales are going to be great regardless of when they release it. And let's face it, the thing is probably going to be sold out continuously for months if not a year or two just like the first Wii was.

Nintendo doesn't lose any holiday sales by releasing it earlier. They still get as much holiday sales, plus extra. But if they release in the holidays then they just get the holiday sales and nothing else. Do you see what I'm saying?

[Adrock]

I think you're missing my point. They have the holiday season ENTIRELY to themselves, so the holiday sales are going to be great regardless of when they release it. And let's face it, the thing is probably going to be sold out continuously for months if not a year or two just like the first Wii was.

How so? Nintendo doesn't have the holiday season to themselves. PS3 and 360 still exist. Sony and Microsoft will have no shortages and all of the 3rd party games, not just the ones 3rd parties felt like porting over. Tomb Raider, for example, is already confirmed to not be coming to Wii U.

Nintendo doesn't lose any holiday sales by releasing it earlier. They still get as much holiday sales, plus extra. But if they release in the holidays then they just get the holiday sales and nothing else. Do you see what I'm saying?

I don't understand what you mean by "plus extra." Nintendo is going to have a finite amount of units available which bound to sell out by the end of the year. Launching earlier just dilutes those sales over the course of a few extra months. For example, let's say Nintendo has X million units available. They can only sell X million units. They either sell X million units from say September to December or X million units from November to December. If Wii U sells out either way, why wouldn't Nintendo just launch during the holidays when the attach rate on games and accessories are higher because, as previously stated, it's the season when people are far more willing to spend more money? Nintendo increases profits and investors are happy. Personally, I'd love to get it sooner because you know, "Shut up and take my money" but from a business perspective, it make sense to launch in November.

So, to steer this back on topic, I'll change my date guess to November 11, 2012. I'm sticking with my original guess for the price.

[Spak-Spang]

I think you're missing my point. They have the holiday season ENTIRELY to themselves, so the holiday sales are going to be great regardless of when they release it. And let's face it, the thing is probably going to be sold out continuously for months if not a year or two just like the first Wii was.

How so? Nintendo doesn't have the holiday season to themselves. PS3 and 360 still exist. Sony and Microsoft will have no shortages and all of the 3rd party games, not just the ones 3rd parties felt like porting over. Tomb Raider, for example, is already confirmed to not be coming to Wii U.

Nintendo doesn't lose any holiday sales by releasing it earlier. They still get as much holiday sales, plus extra. But if they release in the holidays then they just get the holiday sales and nothing else. Do you see what I'm saying?

I don't understand what you mean by "plus extra." Nintendo is going to have a finite amount of units available which bound to sell out by the end of the year. Launching earlier just dilutes those sales over the course of a few extra months. For example, let's say Nintendo has X million units available. They can only sell X million units. They either sell X million units from say September to December or X million units from November to December. If Wii U sells out either way, why wouldn't Nintendo just launch during the holidays when the attach rate on games and accessories are higher because, as previously stated, it's the season when people are far more willing to spend more money? Nintendo increases profits and investors are happy. Personally, I'd love to get it sooner because you know, "Shut up and take my money" but from a business perspective, it make sense to launch in November.

So, to steer this back on topic, I'll change my date guess to November 11, 2012. I'm sticking with my original guess for the price.

I think what he is saying is that the Wii U will be the hot item for the Christmas season.  It is going to have the most excitement and even with the 360 and PS3 out...the energy around a console launch is always large and new shiny console games are going to be big profit for 3rd party and of course Nintendo.  So, Nintendo doesn't have to worry about trying to release right at holiday season to keep the energy and hype for holiday season...it is going to exist because of lack of competition.

The Plus More means...that if Nintendo has the system on the market longer, it should have the holiday season launch of November numbers...plus whatever sold in October, September and August.  And if Nintendo launched say late September or early September...they should be able to have an initial stock sell out, and still have more than enough units ready for Holiday season.  In fact, if consumers believe this item will be hard to find for Christmas, they may start buying it early...so it is like an extended holiday season. 

Launching early has no negatives for Nintendo, as along as software is ready.  If Nintendo can have 5-6 great games prepared for launch in September then they should launch in September...specially if it means that by November they will have many more 3rd party launch titles ready to go for holiday season. 

[Kairon]

I think Chozo is saying that, assuming that supply isn't severely constrained, it could be advantageous to have two "bumps" to the advertising campaign/story of the Wii U launch. If the Wii U launches early enough to avoid being lumped into the Holiday shopping season, then at launch it'll be a PR and marketting story about early adopters and new technology. Then, because of the early launch, there's the opportunity that word of mouth from those early adopters can build up hype and excitement for the product, and by the time Black Friday rolls around the general public will now be even more aware of the product, and have a more robust software library to choose from since they benefit from the full extent of the launch window, instead of just launch date.

Of course, as you point out Adrock, that's ASSUMING that games are ready to release, and Nintendo can even manufacture enough hardware. That's really the limiting factor: a September Launch or October Launch may sound great from a marketting perspective, but if the hardware and games aren't ready then it's impossible to launch earlier no matter how cool that would be.

[Chozo Ghost]

How so? Nintendo doesn't have the holiday season to themselves. PS3 and 360 still exist. Sony and Microsoft will have no shortages and all of the 3rd party games, not just the ones 3rd parties felt like porting over. Tomb Raider, for example, is already confirmed to not be coming to Wii U.

Those are 7th generation consoles. The Wii U has at least a year and possibly 2 years as the sole 8th generation console on the block. Isn't it better for Nintendo to move as many hardware units as quickly as possible so they can entrench themselves before that competition does appear? Even if they wait until the holidays they will still have a headstart, but why should they hold back? If its just to appease investors by meeting with some quarterly time schedule that's stupid. That would hurt them in the long term, even if it does make investors happier in the short term.

I don't understand what you mean by "plus extra." Nintendo is going to have a finite amount of units available which bound to sell out by the end of the year. Launching earlier just dilutes those sales over the course of a few extra months. For example, let's say Nintendo has X million units available. They can only sell X million units. They either sell X million units from say September to December or X million units from November to December. If Wii U sells out either way, why wouldn't Nintendo just launch during the holidays when the attach rate on games and accessories are higher because, as previously stated, it's the season when people are far more willing to spend more money? Nintendo increases profits and investors are happy. Personally, I'd love to get it sooner because you know, "Shut up and take my money" but from a business perspective, it make sense to launch in November.

I get what you are saying. But one advantage they have by releasing months ahead of the holidays is that allows them to gauge the market demand and plan their affairs accordingly. If demand is extremely high and if they have months of early warning of this before the holidays then there should be time to open up additional production lines to speed up manufacturing. Releasing months ahead of the holidays should actually help improve holiday performance because they will know what they are dealing with and they have a few months to respond.

Plus as someone else pointed out, it may be in their interest to release early and then hold back the supply to a trickle to keep the hype and whatnot ramped up, and then when the holidays roll out they can release all that supply they've been holding back and have massive sales.

[Adrock]

The Plus More means...that if Nintendo has the system on the market longer, it should have the holiday season launch of November numbers...plus whatever sold in October, September and August.  And if Nintendo launched say late September or early September...they should be able to have an initial stock sell out, and still have more than enough units ready for Holiday season.  In fact, if consumers believe this item will be hard to find for Christmas, they may start buying it early...so it is like an extended holiday season.

That's not really how that works. Consoles, like all electronics, are manufactured on a production schedule which takes months to alter due to signing new contracts, ordering new parts, finding new factories etc. Even if Nintendo launched a few months before November, Nintendo doesn't have more units to sell. Additional units won't be available until next year.

Launching early has no negatives for Nintendo...

There is a negative. Launching earlier reduces the number of available units in a highly competitive season when people want to spend money. That means lower profits for Nintendo caused by lower attach rates among other things. When Nintendo launches could be the difference between me with a low attach rate getting one and a dad with spoiled kids with a high attach rate getting one. Multiply that a few hundred thousand times and Nintendo's earnings for that quarter are greatly affected.

If its just to appease investors by meeting with some quarterly time schedule that's stupid. That would hurt them in the long term, even if it does make investors happier in the short term.

Stupid or not, that's why Nintendo is doing it. I'm not condemning or supporting that choice; I was just answering your question a few posts up. It is what it is. As a consumer, again "Shut up and take my money." At the same time, I understand that Nintendo does have a responsibility to appease investors to a certain degree since, after all, investors are putting far more money into a company I love than I ever will. I'm taking a neutral stance.

Plus as someone else pointed out, it may be in their interest to release early and then hold back the supply to a trickle to keep the hype and whatnot ramped up, and then when the holidays roll out they can release all that supply they've been holding back and have massive sales.

That's certainly a possibility but remember, any units sold before the holiday season is potentially lost revenue from lower attach rates. "Potenially" being the operative word here. Going all out during the holiday season is a proven tactic. That may not be the only way but history has shown that it works so I can see why Nintendo would do that.

[Hyawatta]

HD Consoles Price Comparison
 
PS3 160GB w/Controller, Game, Blu-ray Movie = $250
PS3 320GB w/Controller, Game = $300
PS3 320GB w/Controller, Game, PSMove = $350
 
Xbox360 4GB w/Controller = $200
Xbox360 4GB w/Controller, Game, Kinect = $300
Xbox360 250GB w/Controller, 2 Games = $300
Xbox360 250GB w/Controller, 2 Games, Kinect = $400
Xbox360 320GB w/2 Controllers, Game = $400
 
Wii U 8GB (Flash) w/Controller = $300
Wii U 8GB (Flash) w/Controller, Game = $350
 
It looks like Nintendo will be bypassing much of the cost by not including a hard drive. If they build games into the console like they did with the 3DS, then they might not even have to include a separate pack-in game.
 
 

They will probably include Wii Sports U with the console.
 
Wii Sports was basically the game that made a ton of people buy a Wii in the first place. It would be foolish not to include a sequel for the Wii U.

 
You have a really good point. The NES had Super Mario Bros. packed in and it did very well. The SNES has Super Mario World packed in and it did well. The N64 did not have Super Mario 64 packed in and it did not do as well. The GCN did not have a pack in game and it did even worse. The Wii has Wii Sports packed in and it did extremely well. Even the portable systems don’t do very well until they start to get games packed in with them. It seems that it would be worth upping the price of the Wii U from $300 to $350 to have a game packed in. 11/18/2012 seems to be the most likely release date as well.

[Chozo Ghost]

Stupid or not, that's why Nintendo is doing it. I'm not condemning or supporting that choice; I was just answering your question a few posts up. It is what it is. As a consumer, again "Shut up and take my money." At the same time, I understand that Nintendo does have a responsibility to appease investors to a certain degree since, after all, investors are putting far more money into a company I love than I ever will. I'm taking a neutral stance.

Nintendo should do what's best for Nintendo and if that means giving the finger to investors from time to time, so be it. The investors should just be along for the ride. If Nintendo does well they can profit from it by being on board, but they should just be passengers and not act like they are the captain. The policy decisions and strategies should be solely in Nintendo's hands. That is what has made Nintendo great.

Let's not forget these same investors have also demanded Nintendo abandon their handhelds and support mobile platforms instead. If Nintendo listened to them it would have resulted in nothing but ruin for the company. Let's also remember that after E3 2011 when the Wii U was announced Nintendo's stock plummeted to levels not seen since 2006. These retard investors are fickle and don't know any better. Nintendo should not take their opinions into account in any way. Listening to them would be just as bad if not worse than listening to Michael Pachter's advice.

[NWR_insanolord]

Nintendo ignores a lot of the things the investors tell them, but they have to throw them a bone once in a while. It's not good business practice to piss off your shareholders without a good reason.

[Chozo Ghost]

Nintendo ignores a lot of the things the investors tell them, but they have to throw them a bone once in a while. It's not good business practice to piss off your shareholders without a good reason.

Its also not a good business practice to not strike while the iron is hot. Nintendo has the first 8th generation console, so they should capitalize on that advantage by launching it as early as possible. It is in the long term interests of the investors that the Wii U succeeds. Nintendo shouldn't dilly dally or assume they've already won, because that's far from certain.

We don't even know that this even would piss off investors. That was something Adrock suggested. For all we know, maybe the investors (or at least some of them) would want Nintendo to launch it earlier.

[Louieturkey]

A two month difference in head start (whether 12 months or 14 months) will not make any difference in the long run.  If the games are ready and they think they can get a great attach rate at launch, they will launch earlier.  If not, they will launch as close to the holiday season as possible so they can get that attach rate up as much as possible.

[Chozo Ghost]

The difference could be more than two months. The only thing we know right now for sure is that the Wii U won't launch before April, because that's when the 2012 fiscal year begins and Nintendo said it wouldn't be launched before that. Any time after April is possible, but it is very unlikely to be before E3. So it could be any time from mid-June onwards. What if it did launch in mid or late June immediately after E3?

This would give Nintendo 5 months or so, during which time they can start new production lines if necessary. I know it takes awhile to start up new production, but 5 months should be ample time for that.

[NWR_insanolord]

Nintendo struck when the iron was hot with the 3DS. How well did that work out for them? It's not as simple as being out earlier = better. There are a lot of factors involved, which people in this thread have pointed out to you.

[Adrock]

What if it did launch in mid or late June immediately after E3?

Then my original guess would have been correct and I just changed it this morning meaning I wouldn't win this thread. That would kind of suck balls. I was going to press my luck and try the lottery next.

[Chozo Ghost]

Nintendo struck when the iron was hot with the 3DS. How well did that work out for them? It's not as simple as being out earlier = better. There are a lot of factors involved, which people in this thread have pointed out to you.

I would argue launching early is what saved the 3DS in the holidays of 2011, because it gave Nintendo ample time to see the demand wasn't there at the $250 price tag and so they had time to cut the price. If Nintendo had waited on the 3DS until the holidays it would have been a disaster, because it would have been poorly received and there would be no time for the price cut. Launching early gave Nintendo a margin of error and room to maneuver.

We don't know what the situation with the Wii U will be yet, but isn't it better if Nintendo gave that some margin of error as well? Waiting until the last minute gives Nintendo no time to change anything, so if the Wii U flops it will flop during the worst possible time of year. If its going to flop at all its better to happen earlier while changes can be made and the holidays can still be salvaged.

[Louieturkey]

Except if no games are ready for it in the summer, then it'll flop anyways.  Really the launch depends on software more than hardware.

[Chozo Ghost]

Software is the big unknown. We can infer a lot about the hardware from the rumors and so on, but software is less understood and probably will remain that way until E3. I would think there would be a good chunk of 3rd party support available if nothing else from PS360 ports which could be slapped together in a short time. On the 1st party front, I'm sure at least Pikmin 3 would be ready because its been in development for so long. Anything else we can really only speculate at this point.

[nickmitch]

Nintendo ignores a lot of the things the investors tell them, but they have to throw them a bone once in a while. It's not good business practice to piss off your shareholders without a good reason.

Its also not a good business practice to not strike while the iron is hot. Nintendo has the first 8th generation console, so they should capitalize on that advantage by launching it as early as possible. It is in the long term interests of the investors that the Wii U succeeds. Nintendo shouldn't dilly dally or assume they've already won, because that's far from certain.

We don't even know that this even would piss off investors. That was something Adrock suggested. For all we know, maybe the investors (or at least some of them) would want Nintendo to launch it earlier.

I think after the 3DS launch, which was largely motivated by shareholder desires, Iwata has earned some credit. He followed what they wanted and that hurt the company big time. Fans had to be appeased, margins had to slashed and losses had to be taken. This time, it's already obvious that Nintendo isn't gonna try and make back its R&D in this fiscal year which tells me that Iwata has essentially told investors, "Sit back, I got this."

[NWR_insanolord]

Nintendo struck when the iron was hot with the 3DS. How well did that work out for them? It's not as simple as being out earlier = better. There are a lot of factors involved, which people in this thread have pointed out to you.

I would argue launching early is what saved the 3DS in the holidays of 2011, because it gave Nintendo ample time to see the demand wasn't there at the $250 price tag and so they had time to cut the price. If Nintendo had waited on the 3DS until the holidays it would have been a disaster, because it would have been poorly received and there would be no time for the price cut. Launching early gave Nintendo a margin of error and room to maneuver.

We don't know what the situation with the Wii U will be yet, but isn't it better if Nintendo gave that some margin of error as well? Waiting until the last minute gives Nintendo no time to change anything, so if the Wii U flops it will flop during the worst possible time of year. If its going to flop at all its better to happen earlier while changes can be made and the holidays can still be salvaged.

There would have been a lot more demand at $250 if there were more games, which there would have been if they'd waited until later to launch. They would have done well during the holidays regardless of price, and if they still needed to cut the price, and if they did it would probably be to a lesser degree, they could wait until after they'd sold a ton in November-December to do so. If they're taking a slight loss at $170 right now, with all that momentum behind it from the holidays they could probably cut it to $200, where they'd still have some profit, for a significant bump before the end of the fiscal year.

And you don't make plans with the assumption that you'll need to make a major change in your MO that quickly. If Nintendo plans it right, which they have to have confidence that they did, a November launch makes more sense. Launching early despite that in case you need to adjust is a sign of weakness to your shareholders, your competitors and the public.

[Spak-Spang]

As I said at launch all Nintendo really needs is 5-6 games with third parties.  The 3DS launch lineup was pretty good actually...it was the drought after and the large price tag which was not in Nintendo's favor. 

And yes, even 2-3 months can make a difference.  How?  If I buy a Wii U that means I am not buying the competitions games and software...I have something else to play...and it means when I get more disposable money say around a holiday time, I will most likely buy Wii U stuff again not the other systems.  So if Nintendo could launch 3 months before that November 18-ish date they usually launch at.  That means Nintendo could more gamers money tied up in Nintendo for 3 more months then in other systems.  It means 3rd parties might have more purchases as well...it means that gamers have 3 to save money again for holiday spending. 

And yes, it means that probably Nintendo can get additional shipments out and ready for a secondary push for the holiday season...and yes, I know manufacturing can't be rushed...but once these things start rolling out, Nintendo isn't going to be stopping manufacturing them for awhile.  So Nintendo can hold stock back to build up enough for holiday season...and still trickle new units to stores in those months leading up to it as well.   

I really don't understand that argument that it isn't good to release early.  It is BEST to release a product as early as you can...once it is ready.  And I know that also includes the games being ready.  All Nintendo really needs is one or two killer first party apps ready early mid August with some descent 3rd party games and they are gold. 

[Louieturkey]

Wait, you said first that Nintendo needs 5-6 first party games, then at the end, they only need 1-2 killer first party games.  So which is it?

With no new generation competition this year, Nintendo will take their time and launch the system right.  Just because some fans of Nintendo think rushing the system out as soon as possible is the right move doesn't make it the right move.  Nintendo has learned from the 3DS launch.  They will take their time.

[Caterkiller]

Wait, you said first that Nintendo needs 5-6 first party games, then at the end, they only need 1-2 killer first party games.  So which is it?

With no new generation competition this year, Nintendo will take their time and launch the system right.  Just because some fans of Nintendo think rushing the system out as soon as possible is the right move doesn't make it the right move.  Nintendo has learned from the 3DS launch.  They will take their time.

5-6 games with 1 or 2 being that MUST have title.

[Kairon]

The latest rumors are that Nintendo is aiming for 4 first-party games in Launch window right? And that they're hoping that putting a lot of software out on the market will increase sales and offset low or negative margins on the console hardware? I know it's not 5-6 1st party titles Spak, but it still sounds aggressive coupled with a hopefully robust third-party selection.

[Ceric]

I think the Wii U would be better launched in September.  If Nintendo believes that as well they probably have a production schedule that ramps up for November deliveries near there first year production capabilities.

Lets not forget that some of the 3rd party games that are promised for launch, like Batman, are losing there shelve life as we speak.  For them to be a major pull they need to drop outside of the Holiday window when the new hotness will be dropping.