Topic: Wii U Price and Release Date Guess Thread

[Spak-Spang]

Yes, I meant 1 or 2 games that you had to have.  Basically the Super Mario 64, the Halo, the Wii Sports, the game that you MUST be the system for.

And then 3-4 other games.  Heck my original statement said just 5-6 games...including 3rd party at initial day 1 launch as long as they had that must own title and next month there would be a continual stream of games. 

I also think the 3rd party support which is bringing a lot of ports out would prefer an earlier launch it would be better for their ports to launch in September away from the holiday big new games for PS3 and Xbox360.  In fact with all the potential ports for the WiiU...it would be better to launch earlier and let them have a chance of success so that developer don't cry when a year old game doesn't sell on the system.

[Mop it up]

Can I make my price point conditional? With what I've been hearing about the specs of the Wii U, I'm not so sure about my guess of $299.99 anymore. However, I think if Nintendo charge $349.99, they will pack in some game to justify the higher price (like how they tossed in Wii Sports to justify the $50 raise in the Wii over previous systems). So...

$299.99 for just a system
-or-
$349.99 if it comes with a game/extras

[Ceric]

This weekend I'm going to update the main post.  It takes longer then it should ><

[Kwolf]

I'm really late to this thread so not sure my guess should really count.  Coming in so late.    Still seems like it would be fun to at least throw in a guess.  Going to go with 299$ price.  Even though I think they might try to go a bit higher, I think the 3ds scared them a bit.  My date guess is November 16th 2012 .   I went with a Friday even though it's a bit unnintendo. Seems like a fun date to guess anyway.

[Louieturkey]

Yes, I meant 1 or 2 games that you had to have.  Basically the Super Mario 64, the Halo, the Wii Sports, the game that you MUST be the system for.

And then 3-4 other games.  Heck my original statement said just 5-6 games...including 3rd party at initial day 1 launch as long as they had that must own title and next month there would be a continual stream of games. 

I also think the 3rd party support which is bringing a lot of ports out would prefer an earlier launch it would be better for their ports to launch in September away from the holiday big new games for PS3 and Xbox360.  In fact with all the potential ports for the WiiU...it would be better to launch earlier and let them have a chance of success so that developer don't cry when a year old game doesn't sell on the system.

Except it sounds like Nintendo may lose money on the system, so they will want to have as high an attach rate as they possibly can.  That means at least 15-20 games available at launch.  That means not the N64 with Mario 64 and Pilotwings being the only games available.  If you wait a little and launch at or around holiday time, the attach rate will be much more to their liking.

[whitewater moose]

I think it would be smart for Nintendo to launch in the US in early September and stagger the Japan and Europe release thirty and sixty days out.  It should hopefully ease the supply chain.  Nintendo had a problem with the supply chain with the worldwide release of the Wii. 


The other reason it would be smart is it will allow Nintendo to launch with 8 to 10 games and stagger releases thereafter September thru December.  It would be good will with the third party developers.  Releasing 15 to 19 games at launch would be awesome.  But you will run into one big problem.  The smaller third party games will get eaten alive.  For example if Nintendo launches with 2 or 3 Nintendo developed games like Pikmin, Retro's games, and Super Mario Mii, Assassins Creed 3, Darksiders 2, COD Black Ops 2 (or whatever it's called), Ghost Recon, and smaller.


You know Ghost Recon  and Darksiders 2 will get eaten alive by COD, Nintendo, and Assassins Creed 3 if released at the same time.  This allows the smaller releases, a better chance to sell their products. 


Release in September with 8 to 10 games.  Maybe it's Pikmin, Wii Sports 2, Darksiders 2, Ghost Recon, EA Sports game (Madden or Fifa), Batman Arkham City, and a kids games.  Then starting every week or two after they can release games with the natural release dates.  Assassins Creed 3 at the end of October for example.  This would make the most sense to me and maximize game sales. 


This allows early adopters to purchase the systems early and will free up system availability by the holiday season in November and December. 

[Kairon]

Yeah, I'm speculating that if Nintendo can launch earlier with a significant amount of time before Black Friday, they might benefit via a higher attach rate. You have to give early adopters time to play their launch games, and then maybe a month later they'll be tempted to come back to double dip for Black Friday sales or for Christmas.

[whitewater moose]

Yeah, I'm speculating that if Nintendo can launch earlier with a significant amount of time before Black Friday, they might benefit via a higher attach rate. You have to give early adopters time to play their launch games, and then maybe a month later they'll be tempted to come back to double dip for Black Friday sales or for Christmas.

I agree with you.  Not to sound like a broken record.  But I think it also leads to higher sales of older ports that are coming from PS3/360 like Batman, and Darksiders.  I am waiting to play these games until Wii U launches.  But if they launch against a slew of new games like AC3, COD (rumored), RE6 (rumored), MoH (rumored), I don't think most of us will play Batman or Darksiders.  Nor will many of us give Killer Freaks or Ghost Recon a chance. 


I think that price ($299 to $349?) and release date are just as important as launch lineup.  Cause we know Nintendo will deliver first party stuff, and I think we all assume at this point, the big releases that are third party Xbox 360 and PS3 are mostly coming to Wii U as well.  COD, MoH, GTA5, Madden, Fifa, TW, NBA 2k, Epic Mickey 2, Mass Effect 3, Dead Space 3, etc.


Reggie said we wouldn't be waiting until E3.  Hopefully we start hearing things soon.

[Chozo Ghost]

$249 -$399 is the price range I consider possible. I'm sure it will be anywhere within that range. But $299-$349 is most likely. I still stand with my $329.99 prediction because that's about the exact center of the range I consider likely.

[TJ Spyke]

That sounds about right, I can't see any chance of Nintendo charging more than $400 for a system. Not even Microsoft has done that (they might have with one of their 360 Elite bundles).

[Spak-Spang]

LouieTurkey:  Actually launching with a smaller number of 3rd party games will be better if Nintendo is losing money on the system.  The reason is then players will definitely buy the Nintendo games.  Nintendo systems usually do not launch with more than 2-3 first party games. 

So if Nintendo gets a strong attach rate of 3-4 and 2 of those games are Nintendo's they get a better return for that lose than if Nintendo releases the system with 15 third party games and gamers buy 3-4 games with the system and only 1 is Nintendo's.

[TJ Spyke]

Nintendo systems usually do not launch with more than 2-3 first party games. 

Other than the NES, Nintendo has never launched a console with more than 2 first party games. I would expect this to continue with Wii U.

More launch games has pros and cons. Nintendo makes more anytime a game on their system sells whether first party or third party, though obviously they make more money with first party. You also want to make sure you don't have a drought right after launch, so maybe have some games come out after launch (like how Pikmin and Super Smash Bros. Melee came out within a month of the GameCube launch in North America).

[Adrock]

I really don't think Nintendo is going to have many issues with 1st party title attach rate. They're the main reason people buy Nintendo consoles.

[Louieturkey]

I really don't think Nintendo is going to have many issues with 1st party title attach rate. They're the main reason people buy Nintendo consoles.

This. 

It doesn't matter how many 3rd party games are available.  Nintendo games will sell regardless.  Having more games at launch is always better than having less.  Plus, the higher the attach rate for the system, the better the bragging in the press release about the system.

[Spak-Spang]

Yes Nintendo games will always sell.  But the markets are pretty broad now.  And if I am an Xbox type gamer.  I may pick up a third party game instead of that second first party game.  Remember there is limited money people can spend on a new console at launch because of the initial cost.

If you are saying Nintendo NEEDS to sell games to make up that loss, it is best for them to sell Nintendo games...and therefore make it up in the game sells.  Too many 3rd party games WILL water down which Nintendo games are bought.  Most people only buy 2 games with the launch of a new system.

Personally, I don't believe that is a problem.  I see Nintendo not needed to worry, because Nintendo will have sells from their own games, people buying new controllers, and people buying protection for their systems...people buying virtual console games, and other download games...ect, ect...

Selling at a lose will not be a problem for Nintendo at all.

[TJ Spyke]

Don't forget that many Nintendo games tend to have long lifespans, so even if someone doesn't buy it right away they might later (some games fail to do this, but not all). I am sure they would love to have third parties to great at launch so it would encourage more third party releases.

[NWR_insanolord]

It's not about first party or third party, it's about experiences you can only get on the Wii U. A third party exclusive is good to have, while a port of a game coming to the 360 and PS3 as well doesn't help as much. Having Assassin's Creed 3 is nice, but it won't sell systems. Something like UbiSoft's Killer Freaks from Outer Space, though, is something you can only play on Wii U. It certainly doesn't hurt to get ports, but nobody's buying a Wii U to be able to play them outside the die-hard Nintendo loyalist crowd, and Nintendo's got their money regardless.

[Stogi]

But Nintendo has never sold at a loss and as a result has never ever once been in the red (since the NES), even when their systems have flopped (Virtual Boy). They are sitting on McDuck's gold coin pond, but that's only with being conservative with their bigger risks. I don't see them giving that philosophy up, even if the profit margin is a penny.

[NWR_insanolord]

They're selling the 3DS at a loss right now, and they've already announced they're going to be in the red for the fiscal year that's about to end.

[Louieturkey]

I also remember hearing that when the Gamecube launched they were selling it at a loss for at least 6 months.

[TJ Spyke]

Nope, they were profiting from gameCube right from launch. Remember that they also cut the GameCube's price just a few months after launch, which would have made it even harder to profit.

[Chozo Ghost]

A third party exclusive is good to have, while a port of a game coming to the 360 and PS3 as well doesn't help as much.

It isn't so much that those ports help, but that it hurts when they aren't there. If they are there people won't take much notice of them and take them for granted, but if they aren't there then it is the same problem that has been plaguing Nintendo since the N64.

So again, people don't buy Nintendo consoles to play third party games (generally), but what is true is that people do avoid Nintendo consoles because those third party titles aren't there. Do you see what I'm saying? The ports don't do much to draw people in, but they are necessary to keep people from turning away.

has never ever once been in the red (since the NES),

That was true for many years, but just recently they were in the red. Sometime back in 2011. I think they are out of the red now though, but I'm not sure.

[Louieturkey]

I think it was more that their profits were down, not that they were in the red.

[TJ Spyke]

No, Nintendo was in the red. For the six months that ended September 30, they lost $923 million. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nintendo-sinks-deeper-into-red-in-first-half-2011-10-27

Sluggish Wii sales had part to do with it, and losing money on every 3DS system sold doesn't help (they are doing it to get the system out there and make up it up with software sales of course).

[gamercat]

No, Nintendo was in the red. For the six months that ended September 30, they lost $923 million. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nintendo-sinks-deeper-into-red-in-first-half-2011-10-27

Sluggish Wii sales had part to do with it, and losing money on every 3DS system sold doesn't help (they are doing it to get the system out there and make up it up with software sales of course).

That info would be shocking if it had happened last year or the year before. However, you have to consider that they have several 3DS titles in development as well as a new HD home console in the works, for which they have licensed several middlewares  for third parties to use, as well as the collaborations and their own HD games. And while they have a more unique approach to art style, as opposed to photorealistic, games like Smash Bros are big. There's also Retro's game and Monolith Soft is also working on something for Wii U. They have also invested in the Nintendo Network, and maybe they have made contracts with other companies already as suggested by Mr. Iwata. All of that requires a lot of money.

Anyways, I predict Wii U launch during or a bit after Summer, or at least that's the ideal time frame. Last holiday season was pretty crowded, and this year looks to be no different if not more crowded. This is even more dangerous for Wii U since the system will have games that will already be on other systems like Batman and Ninja Gaiden 3. They need to launch a bit early to offset those early games so that the system can have a more steady flow of games that will arrive later on like Assassin's Creed 3 and Aliens. If third party support is as big as rumored and if companies like Capcom are on it, we might see RE 6 on it, and CoD is pretty much a given.

As for price, $350 would be ideal if it has a considerable boost in hardware like it seems to have. If they have two versions, maybe one will be priced at $299 and the other at $399 with a HDD and a sleeker look.