So are you saying that Nintendo is not only going to launch high, but keep the price high as well? Or it's not going to be more than $200?
Even $200 is a lot, and not everyone will be willing to pay over $150 for a handheld unless the 3DS is the best thing since sliced bread, or the iPhone (perception-wise). It very well could be, but without calling or 'tablet functions' it's behind the competition when it comes to (initial) perception.
When a non-informed person goes to make their first 3D purchase, are they going to look at which is getting better 3rd party support, or price and function? As you and I both mentioned 3D smartphones are coming, which don't (and likely won't for awhile) have the graphical output of the 3DS, but if they can also play 3D movies at a similar resolution as the 3DS, and can access ESPN 3D and Youtube 3D from anywhere (which I am predicting to get big within the next two years), the phone seems a worthwhile purchase and the 3DS worth waiting for.
The 3DS will still sell, videogamers, impulse buyers, and well off kids will be all over the thing, but the casual market may be a little reluctant at anything more than $200 and limited features. Like the lack of global internet access, or playability on a T.V with multiple people. Unless of course Nintendo does do a Kinect like thing with the 3DS's cameras, and a later version has 4G. Both of which are wishful thinking on my part, but 4G wouldn't be a complete shocker for the redesign 3yrs or so from now.