One day the analyst will be right about the Wii..... I'm not so sure that day is today though.
Wii Cycle to 'Fade Meaningfully' in 2010, Aggressive Price Cuts Needed"We acknowledge that a traditional hardware cycle would now be nearing completion, leaving further market growth dependent on continued and aggressive hardware price cuts, software price cuts, hardware extensions and an economic lift. We remain optimistic for near term PS3 and 360 market growth opportunities, vis-à -vis an emerging secondary casual market cycle, as accessory innovations potentially target an established Nintendo casual market. We expect continued market weakness through ’10 for Nintendo related products, as the Wii cycle fades meaningfully and the DS platform faces considerable competition from Apple related mobile gaming devices. We recognize new hardware from Nintendo is on the horizon," Hickey began.
Continued Market Weakness.......
::looks back at December sales records set by Nintendo Wii & DS and then looks at January sales dominance by Nintendo::
He continued, "We think console manufactures need to dramatically cut price points in calendar ’10, to continue hardware sales momentum from the holiday. However, we expect Microsoft will not cut the price of their hardware in front of the introduction of Natal motion technology this holiday, as they are likely hesitant to offer a price induced inflection point for their installed base growth, favoring a hardware innovation as a more sound medium term sales catalyst. Importantly, Nintendo built the majority of their casual mass market oriented installed base from a $250 price point. We believe Nintendo needs to cut the price of their console from $200 to $150 immediately, as they should establish as meaningful of an installed base as possible before the Natal and Arc are introduced. We believe they also need to generate strong hardware sales momentum into their competitors release or face the draconian consumer perception of the Wii having a dramatically reduced entertainment value proposition over a faded technology innovation; Rock Band anyone?"
Establish as meanigful of an installed base as possible......
::Looks back into the sales thread once again and sees the Wii total units sold vs either the PS3 or 360::
Interestingly, Hickey also sees new casual market opportunities as a portion of current Nintendo customers will look to upgrade to more powerful or new experiences. The upcoming Project Natal and Sony motion controller could be just what they're seeking. "We believe a new casual game market will emerge in calendar 2010, which could be very beneficial for Microsoft, Sony, Apple and 3rd party software developers like Electronic Arts, Activision, THQ, Ubisoft, and Take-Two. The casual hardware extensions from both Sony and Microsoft will likely drive both additional hardware and software sales, for casual and non-gaming mass market opportunities," Hickey said. "We expect a potential up-migration from a portion of Nintendo’s Wii market, as many new gaming console households choose to upscale their game entertainment experience, enjoy a broader array of multi-media options and experience 'the new' casual gaming opportunities. We expect 3rd party publishers could benefit significantly over the emerging casual cycle, as their prior experience at the casual market was often tortuous from Nintendo’s software domination."
Well I guess anything is possible, but if they couldn't figure out what to do with motion controls in casual games when graphics weren't important, I can't imagine what they are gonna do with motion controls now.
Besides, if the casual market is casual, wouldn't owning one system that fits their needs be enough, and if they aren't enjoying the 3rd party software now, what makes them think the same games from the same 3rd parties on a different platform will be any better? Hoping to get to the new suckers first until they realize that this game sucks just as much as the one they released on the Wii?