Topic: Funeral Proceedings for a Console

[BlackNMild2k1]

Nintendo has also showed distaste for disc based media too and look where that has gotten us...

A disk based system with almost no load times as opposed to the crappy loading screen wait of the PS1?

But a Disc based system it is.

I'm sure a DD system will happen one day, but probably not within the near future. Broadband connection would have to be absolutely everywhere otherwise they are shutting out potential customers. So even though it may happen one day, I wouldn't expect it until at least after the next 2 generations.

[MegaByte]

That's a pretty scary future. Nintendo has expressed distaste for downloads so hopefully they choose cartridges.

Nintendo had in-store writeable disks in Japan for the Famicom, in-store writeable ROM cartridges for the Super Famicom and Game Boy, satellite downloads, N64-equivalent in-store and downloadable writeable ROM cartridges and internet downloads in China, and a limited set of downloadable to SD card content for DS in Japan.  Their latest two systems have SD card slots and support downloads.  They have a lot of experience with this, it makes more sense cost-wise, and consumers are now more used to it, so it's an obvious direction to take.  They've been consistently moving towards standardized interfaces (e.g. SD, USB, Bluetooth) over their proprietary connections.  It may not happen next gen, but maybe the one after that.

[Mop it up]

Looks like I may be quitting gaming soon.

[vudu]

Why?  Are they releasing Aero the Acrobat on VC?   

[MegaByte]

Now, optical media could still have a future if holographic storage takes off.  Nintendo does have a lot of investment in a company that it working on such a product, but I don't know what state it will be in by the time the next console launches... silicon could be more sensible.  Digital distribution is getting bigger by the day.  But for those not using that yet, I've already seen an increase in retailers selling movies, music, and software on USB sticks and SD cards.  And then there's Redbox and their plan to start renting games.  I could see these boxes converted into download stations in the future.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

But I can't download plastic guitars and skateboards that way.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Now, optical media could still have a future if holographic storage takes off.  Nintendo does have a lot of investment in a company that it working on such a product, but I don't know what state it will be in by the time the next console launches... silicon could be more sensible.  Digital distribution is getting bigger by the day.  But for those not using that yet, I've already seen an increase in retailers selling movies, music, and software on USB sticks and SD cards.  And then there's Redbox and their plan to start renting games.  I could see these boxes converted into download stations in the future.

That is probably the next step in digital distribution. Retailers with disc pressers and manual printers. then the employees assembles the game and you come back in 20 minutes to pick it up.

They can't up and just abandon point of purchase sales as many retailers wouldn't go along with that(and see Pro's point above) and probably refuse to sell the systems. They are gonna have to ease everyone into it, and I could see some sort of retail download station that either use disc or flash media of some sort, or some sort of digital press so that a store always has a copy of the game and if you come back in 30 minutes, they will have it ready to go for you.

[Ian Sane]

I think physical media is going to stick around for a bit because digital downloads are a very new idea and there is a large segment of the videogame market that doesn't trust them.  I personally am concerned that without a physical copy to own that I have less rights as a consumer.  If my DVD player breaks it doesn't destroy all my DVDs with it.  No company can decide to just bork my old games remotely because they feel my "licence" to use those games is up.  With physical media an out-of-print also can still be found in the user marketplace.  There is no such thing as a used item if it's a digital download.

I'm not a crazy kook that's alone in this idealogy.  This is a common complaint about digital downloads.  I think a big part of it is I didn't grow up with the internet.  It was something that was introduced to the masses when I was in high school and I personally didn't start using it on a regular basis until I was in college.  Meanwhile there are kids graduating high school right now who have never lived without the internet.  Though there is only a ten year age difference it's like a huge generation gap.  When I was a kid it was exceptional to have a computer, a cell phone was a huge luxury item and MP3 players didn't exist at all.  "Download" was probably not even a word.

If you have observed your grandparents or parents you've probably noticed that people tend to not like trying out new things as they get older.  Ideally for something to truly be accepted the older generation that instinctively hates it has to die off first.  Rock n roll used to be this super evil rebel music.  These days it's practically adult contemporary as people who grew up with rock music are in their 60's.  The old geezers who thought Elvis Presley played the Devil's music are all either dead or close to it.  And they all ceased being a part of any sort of major target demographic long ago.  Their kids are now old enough that the market doesn't target them.  Videogame are a common target of controversy.  That's because they're still so new.  The generation that never knew them still has clout.

Well a great deal of people under 40 are used to buying physical media and probably would not be so quick to embrace a completely digitial download-only model.  Keep in mind that Nintendo attracted a whole bunch of older people with the Wii and DS.  You think those people will stick around to use a download-only model?  Digital downloads are just too new to completely take over.  They have to wait until the target age demographic is such that everybody has known about the internet and downloading their whole life and thus have no attachment to physical media.  Well I'm in the demographic of geezers that have an attachment to physical media and I'm not even 30 yet.  So until another 30-35 years or so when I'm of an age group that videogame companies no longer want to attract the business of, physical media is going to stick around.  At the very least there is no way that they're just going to switch to a download-only model overnight.

[MegaByte]

CDs are dying fast and digital sales are ever increasing.  Movie rental places are dying... this was mostly thanks to Netflix, but Netflix is also pursuing digital distribution.  And speaking of demographics, those who grew up after the internet became widespread are approaching purchasing age.  A great number of older people are on Facebook now, and a lot of them play online games... casual games, or cell phone games.   Also note that many of those who bought a Wii don't even really understand that the Wii can play other games than Wii Sports.  In this case, building a distribution system right into the interface would actually work out better.  If we can extrapolate from this, the transition may happen sooner than you think... 10 years, or less since technology is accelerating:
(source: NY Times)

For better or worse.


I don't expect Nintendo to be first-mover though.  They've been too conservative on the media front.

[BlackNMild2k1]

& I haven't used Steam very much (only 1 purchase), but if anyone can make buying games online as simplified and almost forgettable to do like shopping on Amazon.com, then DD will do just fine.

I've bought so many things on amazon.com lately that I don't even remember doing it sometimes. It's just so easy to do that you just set click it and forget it. [/infomercial]

[Ian Sane]

I certainly think digital download will be successful and embraced BUT it's too early to switch to just that overnight.  I think it has to be an option at first that co-exists with physical media.  The PSP Go style download-only model is not going to fly.

I'd also like to note that when I download a demo from PSN it often takes like an hour or even a couple of hours.  And this is just for a DEMO, not a full-size game that's several gigs.  Yeah everyone likes downloading songs because they're small so it takes no time.  But movies and videogames are huge and in the amount of time it takes to download well, ****, I might as well just drive to the store.  And what if something goes wrong during the download?  Super, now I have to try again and wait another four hours.  These days we're all into HD and all that so everything is bigger.  And remember that right now only a fraction of the audience is downloading games.  If everyone HAS to do it there is going to be a whole **** load more traffic.  Imagine some big hyped up new game gets released and it's like 4 GB and on day one HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE are trying to download it at the same time.  I don't think that sort of issue is thought of very often because right now using Steam is more like a hip thing to do that the mainstream is unaware of.  Only a small fraction of the market is buying it that way.  You think "this is so easy and convenient, why doesn't everyone do it this way?"  Well if everyone did it this way it might not be so easy and convenient.  There are a lot of things to think about.  They can't just upload a bunch of huge files to a network and away we go.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I know you aren't responding directly to my post, but that's related to another point I made above(top of the page) about broadband connections. We know it won't happen now and it won't happen soon as for 1 broadband speeds are no where near what they need to be to make this function smoothly if everyone is doing it and 2 broadband connections have not reached every corner to of the planet and no one wants to purposely shut out a potentially large section of customers that have absolutely no way to purchase your product.
That requires them to go with the options that they have or go with nothing at all. So if DD was to come about, it will be in baby steps and at first as a convenience option.

[BranDonk Kong]

Broadband speeds in the US aren't what they need to be. In Europe, my 15-22Mb connection is a joke, over here's it's a pretty big deal. The one thing that would absolutely *KILL* digital download as a main format for gaming, however, would be if all the ISPs start imposing caps on monthly bandwidth.

[Stratos]

Broadband speeds in the US aren't what they need to be. In Europe, my 15-22Mb connection is a joke, over here's it's a pretty big deal. The one thing that would absolutely *KILL* digital download as a main format for gaming, however, would be if all the ISPs start imposing caps on monthly bandwidth.

A number of them already do. Comcast finally admitted last year to capping. Speed should not be something you pay for but the amount of data you are sending and receiving.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Broadband speeds in the US aren't what they need to be. In Europe, my 15-22Mb connection is a joke, over here's it's a pretty big deal. The one thing that would absolutely *KILL* digital download as a main format for gaming, however, would be if all the ISPs start imposing caps on monthly bandwidth.

A number of them already do. Comcast finally admitted last year to capping. Speed should not be something you pay for but the amount of data you are sending and receiving.

But I would be undone!

[Crimm]

If you buy a 360 console at somewhere like Best Buy, do they offer the 3 year warranty for it?  And if so, does it cover the red ring and E74?

Microsoft has extended the length of the warranty for those specific problems.  Mine was outside the one-year, but they offer two additional years for those problems.

[BranDonk Kong]

Caps are retarded. Does it actually cost the ISP anything for you to download something? Sure there's electricity involved, and fees and whatnot...but I can't see any other costs besides that.

[D_Average]

If you buy a 360 console at somewhere like Best Buy, do they offer the 3 year warranty for it?  And if so, does it cover the red ring and E74?

Microsoft has extended the length of the warranty for those specific problems.  Mine was outside the one-year, but they offer two additional years for those problems.

Good to hear.  Though it should be a simple process, I'm sure MS will pull all sorts of Ubisoft like moves in fixing your system.  Looking forward to hearing progress reports on the upcoming shows. 

[vudu]

Crimm, I am very sorry for your loss.  Please let me know if you need someone to talk to; I'm here for you.

I made you a lasagna--bake it at 350 degrees for 30 minutes, remove the foil and continue baking for another 10 minutes; let cool for 15 minutes before serving.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Your lasagna is overheated.  You'll have to send it in for repair.  What's the warranty on that thing?

[BlackNMild2k1]

Thats not a red ring of death, thats actually just some tomato sauce.

[Crimm]

It arrived in Microsoft repair yesterday.  When UPS says "ground" they mean it.
 
1296 Miles, 20 hours and 19 minutes.
 

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

If UPS made deliveries by strapping packages to Komodo Dragons, that'd be something.

[ShyGuy]

Crimm lives in Texas?

[vudu]

Crimm lives in Texas?

No, you start from A, not F!