Topic: Fun With Math ...

[RickPowers]

I sent this to the guys at PGC as well, so don't be surprised if a story gets made out of it.  But I wanted to share it with you guys too.

There's a screenshot of an ad floating around.  Manpower is hiring 150 people to work at North Bend to package Wii.  How many Wii units could 150 people package?  Depends on how long the contract is ... but that's not the point.  If they're ready to package, Wii is finished.  So could you use this to predict a launch date?  Assuming a standard eight-hour shift, and assuming a five-day work week ... the only variable is how many they could package in an hour.

150 x 8 x 5 x UnitsPerHour = 6000 x UPH.

If the average were 20 units per hour (which is probably conservative, at three minutes per unit ... a minute per unit is more likely), 120,000 units a week.  In 10 weeks, they would have 1.2 Million units ready.  This is just for the US, assume Japan has their own packaging staff.

There are other factors to consider.  Is the plant running seven days a week?  Is there overtime?  Are these people temps to supplement Nintendo's existing workforce.  The answer to all of those questions is YES, based on my knowledge of how Nintendo operates.

The math shows that at a minimum, Nintendo could launch in 10 weeks with 1.2 Million units.  That's Mid-November at the latest.  Assuming that these additional variables could be used to reduce time-to-market, perhaps to as low as six weeks, Mid-October becomes a possibility.  Regardless, the math also proves pretty conclusively that a surprise Tokyo Game Show launch (as has been rumored) is highly unlikely, but possible with lower quantity.

But what if my theory that you could package the units in an average of a minute a piece were true?

If that could be accomplished, Nintendo could launch with a Million units (1.08 Million, to be precise) in THREE WEEKS, with no other change in variables.

Just a little something to chew on today ...

[UncleBob]

Should have waited until Midnight.

[Kairon]

Ah! The staff are speculating! I'm so confused!

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[JonLeung]

They don't have to launch absolutely immediately after the last box of their first shipment is finished.  And even if everyone could easily pack a Wii in under a minute, how likely can they maintain that rate all day?  More likely they gave themselves some breathing room.  I would estimate that they would give themselves an extra week or even two...heck, even three, considering the volume involved.

However, it would be nice if the launch date was "this particular date at the latest, but sooner if we finish packing before then".  Confusion would certainly arise, though.  

[RickPowers]

It's not really speculation.  It basically just shows that with conservative estimates (and Nintendo is a very conservative company), Nintendo could manufacture enough consoles for a solid launch before Black Friday, which I have to assume is the goal.  Then I just proceed to have a little fun with it.  Anything you might choose to read into that ... well, that's on you.  

After all, it's just kind of fun to look at the magical numbers and say, hey, they could really launch any time they chose.  TGS is most certainly not going to happen, but just about any time after that is just a matter of launch quantities.  

[Spak-Spang]

If you take Production line Assembly as the method of humans packaging and readying the system, then one minute is completely capable, and also sustainable.  

So, if Nintendo is packaging the product in US and Japan, you must also assume they are packaging the system as well in Europe.  

And remember Rick's estimates don't assume any other variables.  Like he mentioned overtime, current employees, manchinary possibly used to assist packaging, Possible packaging being done sooner, and added personal are for a very specific reason.  

This is all good news, and you can't speculate what it all means...but it does mean Nintendo will be ready for a launch, whenever they decide to launch.

[Caliban]

I commented something about this plant on the September 14th thread lol.

I have to agree with Rick though in his conclusion that it is possible for Nintendo to launch sooner than we expect.

I bet you can package 2 or 3 per minute, if you consider that 1 person alone does not package the whole box, it's an assembly line afterall.

[Strell]

I wanna pack the Wii into boxes.

Yes.

[Spak-Spang]

I wanna pack the Wii in my pants and run for the exit.

[Grant10k]

Quote
Originally posted by: Spak-Spang
I wanna pack the Wii in my pants and run for the exit.

There is only 1 person operating the auto-pack machinery. The other 149 are snipers guarding the exits to make sure the packer dosn't do just that.

[BigJim]

I already got a Wii in my pants.

The other variable is, how likely is it that all 150 are working all at once? If it's, say, 150 part-timers working 20 hours a week, that's effectively 75 full timers and volume is cut in half.

And how many Oompa Loompas does Iwata have?  

[JonLeung]

We know: there's a job listing calling for 150 people to pack Wiis.
We don't know: the actual launch date.

We suspect it to be in a particular launch window, of course, as early as October and as late as November...not very big, to be honest...and Rick's shown how mathematically it seems quite feasible for them to get over a million units ready for that date, whenever it is.

Which is nice, and all, but was there ever a concern?

I don't remember Nintendo ever having any major hardware shortages...oops, except for DS Lites - particularly in Japan...  Still, I don't see how or why Nintendo would be like Sony or Microsoft and not have enough for demand.  Perhaps that's too much faith in Nintendo but they have a good track record, unless my memory is bad.

Then again, like with the DS Lite, who knows what the demand is, what with all the Wii hype (and insane PS3 price and other dehyping) this year...perhaps there will be shortages.

Darn...this topic is making me again want to pre-order.

[Ceric]

What if the America plant is the only one?  This is where all the chips are probably being made.  So it makes sense in staying where you ship the most sensitive part least.  Unless IBM has a plant in Europe and Japan.

[Strell]

My Wii would need 14 boxes to fit in.

Which translates to roughly 6 pairs of pants.

That's only about 7 PS3s though.

[Athrun Zala]

that does seems like a nice estimate, as 120000 is more or less the amount of DSes Nintendo pumps out every week in Japan

it's good to see that the Wii is right on track

[BigJim]

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
And how many Oompa Loompas does Iwata have?

Oompa Loompa doopity dasis
The secrets of Wii boxing is on a need-to-know basis.
Oompa Loompa doopity dun.
Prepare your diapers for teh megat0n.

[The Omen]

Take into consideration that Manpower hires for all three shifts(8-4/4-12/12-8), and we may have a 24 hour a day, 7 day a week Wii explosion.  Could Nintendo possibly release the Wii in two weeks?

Hell, Manpower hires for postal workers around this time and it's 24 hours per day, and 6 days a week.  I would say Nintendo is just as large as the Orlando PO.

[RickPowers]

Omen,

Unless Nintendo will be paying for overtime (and I doubt it; Nintendo is nothing if not cost-conscious), the number of shifts is meaningless.  It's still the number of people by the number of hours worked.  It is more efficient for the plant to run 24/7, but less efficient to pay people overtime (shift differentials notwithstanding).  The math still holds ... it is unlikely that any given employee of the 150 being hired will work more than a 40 hour week.

[Smash_Brother]

Manpower? They have robots to do this sh*t now.

Wake up and smell the oil-based sweat of America's newest metallic employment threat, my friends.

[Ceric]

The sad fact is that it is still cheaper to pay someone to do this time of work instead of automating it.

[JonLeung]

Especially since there would probably be a lot of people who want to touch Wiis before stuffing them into boxes, so they wouldn't need to be paid much to be motivated to do so.

[Ceric]

A human can be trained quicker then a machine.  Doesn't require expensive sensors.  Can excess many general measurements.  Humans are great general quality gates.  Well machine are great for very specific very precise things.

[RickPowers]

Actually, it was probably done on a cost-benefit basis.  Would it be more expensive to hire temps and train them, or to build a machine to do it.  Then you have to amortize the cost of the machine over the lifespan of the product it creates.

Can't tell that I'm a Business Major, can you?  

[vudu]

Quote
Originally posted by: RickPowers
Can't tell that I'm a Business Major, can you?  

A finance one, at that (by the sound of things).

[RickPowers]

Nope, Management and Marketing, actually.