Ah, the tragedy that was Day 3. I see it as the biggest turning point in the game thus far. If the townies don't win, I think we could trace it back to that fateful night.
I feel like a broken record, and it's a moot point now anyways. Yet, I feel compelled to try to explain one more time in the hopes that next time people, even if they don't fully agree with or understand the plan, will give me the benefit of the doubt.
There were TWO LIKELY OUTCOMES:
1. Ceric is voted out. This would allow Mad Gear to take out a townie (Pryo) instead of Ceric. Likelihood that Mad Gear would take out a townie: 100%. One townie dead, one known (and townie-friendly) mafia member dead. Score 1-1.*
2. Someone else is voted out. It would be too tempting for Mad Gear to allow Ceric to live, so I was 99% sure that they would use their hit on him. ALSO, I had suspicions about others at that point, and had attempted to start a bandwagon. There was at least the CHANCE that we would get a Mad Gear member. With option 1, there'd be no chance at all. One potential Mafia dead (time will tell if I was right), one known mafia dead. Score: possibly 2 for the townies.
Well, there was one other possible (but very unlikely) outcome:
3. Someone else is voted out and Ceric isn't hit. Even THIS is preferrable to what actually happened. There'd be the chance we'd get a mafia with our vote, AND Ceric would be alive the next day to help us out with a hit AND a vote. We could easily re-coop the previous night's loss AND keep us safe from a Mad Gear hit the next day.
With ANY OTHER option, we would've been better off. Maybe it's partly my fault, and I didn't explain the logic behind not voting for Ceric well enough. But dang, if I didn't try. I contacted no less than 4 people to plead my case, to no avail, in addition to all my posts in the thread.
* Lastly, and this was an unforeseen situation (for me at least)... At least in part because no one saw the logic of the plan and sided with me, I ended up being hit by Haggar. He dies, I die, Pryo dies. Actual score that night? 1-3, Mad Gear wins the night handily. I think we can all agree in hindsight that going with option 1. proved VERY bad for the townies in the end.