Nickmitch your problem is you just assumse that PS4 console generation is arbirtraily set in stone and once committed to it people won't want to move on.
I think your problem is you ignore the current situation and think there's only a minimal impact in launching a new console so late in the generation. You also ignore what it means for Nintendo to abandon a console mid-generation.
I was never talking about Wii U so why did you even bring it up Wii U was a mess from the start, Nintendo has a chance to fix those mistakes.
I used it as an example. You don't have to be talking about something for me to bring it up as an example. For instance, you bring up the N64 later. Why? No one was talking about it. But it illustrates your point, so you talk about it. (Which is ok.)
If it is JUST another Wii U, mid-generation but barely on par then no it will fail it has to be both more powerful, and support B/C with Wii U and Virtual Console, not an easy task.
Ok, nothing disagreeable here. But I would like to point out that I never said Nintendo should skimp on the horsepower. I started with saying they need a
hook.
On top of that it needs both Nintendo exclusives, which we all agree on, and third party exclusives, which I said but you ignored somehow.
So, I wasn't ignoring your point. I was saying that not enough people bought Wii Us for just the exclusives. When I said, "Especially if those games that really make the system (Splatoon, Smash, XCX) are few and far between" I was trying to imply that you need something than
just exclusives. Wii U has exclusives, great ones. Maybe a better way to illustrate my point is that Nintendo needs their big, shiny, sexy games to come out more frequently. Games like NSMB U (which I intentionally mentioned earlier) and DKC:TF are great games, but nothing to get excited about. The promise of more of those first party games could make the system.
And you are delusional if you think people's minds are set on a five year cycle when history has show that other consoles can launch at any time and throw everything off. N64 was a mid cycle release and it did just fine comparatively.
"Delusional" is a bit harsh. I never said anyone's mind was set on a five year cycle. But the N64 was a 2 year delay. The NX would be a 3 year delay (at least). The N64 also paled in sales to the PS1, pretty much only beating out the Saturn, which isn't much to brag about.
Look, my initial point is that the console needs a hook. If Nintendo put out a machine on par with a PS4, it wouldn't be enough. The multiplatform releases are needed, sure, but that's not enough. Normally, I'd say exclusives sell systems. But they didn't sell the Wii U (again, just using it as an example), so I can't say that's enough either. It needs something that makes people say, "Hey, I wanna try that" or "Wow, that looks really fun". Admittedly, it also needs the follow through. Wii U's hook was half-baked to say the least.