These are fun.
- Market share:
Far greater than the 'Cube, far less than the Wii. I am most curious if Sony or MS will adopt the second screen idea (Smartglass is something quite different, a companion but not a centre-piece for a game). I doubt it. Their systems have to be significantly higher spec than Wii U while maintaining a conservative pricepoint. Even taking their extreme loss leader strategy of the last two product cycles into account, I can't see how they could afford to offer such a controller along with the spec upgrade, even if their systems launch at a premium above Wii U.
I think Wii U will do gangbusters in Japan...enduring brand power, a market veering strongly in the direction of portable and mobile platforms, the enticement of off-screen play in cramped households and the cagey offering of Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest and Pokemon offerings along with a continued slate of lifestyle non-games. Wii U seems especially well suited for Japan.
In the US, I have no idea. I want to say it will find its family-friendly, household niche... but the product, judging from advertising and resulting lack of awareness, is truly confusing. There are more options for eyeballs now than 5 years ago, and competition from nascent competitors (not to mention Steam and its ilk on the PC!) will probably intensify in the near future.
- 3rd party exclusives:
Japanese support should be fine. Given Nintendo's particularly strong relationships there and their relative position of strength (ie financial solvency) and the Wii U's robust hardware and digital platform, Ninty can likely secure some very nice software. But yeah, the West. EA seems unenthused and are relentlessly investing in mobile and digital delivery, Take Two doesn't anticipate the market for their games, Activision doesn't do exclusives (do any of them, these days?) ...the relationship with Ubi is a high point though.
This may very well be why Nintendo is so seriously courting indies now. With indies given their limited resources, they would be more likely to get, if not an actual platform exclusive, a "first platform" status.
- Perception among gamers:
Despite not being so bullish on their market impact, from a game library and experience standpoint, I actually think the system will serve "core" gamers very well (better than the 64, the 'Cube or the Wii!). Standard control options, a unique hook in the second screen that will serve some games and certain customers very well, adequate hardware, a promising digital platform and most importantly, an aggressive Nintendo looking to defend their turf and prolong their way of doing business while also exploring some new avenues.
- Graphical capabilities years down the line:
Competing consoles will trump it, as will tablets in a couple of years (!?) It is already given that the booming PC market will remain the cutting edge. I don't really care about that, I do most of my play on the DS and the iPhone these days, but I imagine a lot of people do. I expect the graphics will remain good enough over the next 4 years for the vast majority of users however.
Topic: Wii U Future Predictions! (Read 25640 times)
