Will there be a first quarter drought with games for the Wii yes.
But it happens the first year of every new console release. The PS3 will have it so bad you won't even find PS3s to buy.
The real question is will we have a second year drought in the first quarter, and will Nintendo be able to push great games for the rest of 07 after the initial drought.
Personally, I will be upset if Nintendo doesn't release somewhere between 9-12 games next year for the Wii. I will grant them a drought/break till March. But starting March I want to see a new Wii game for the system averaging out to once per month. (Some months can have 2 releases.)
Nintendo has many projects coming out, and several of them are very far along.
Metroid,
Mario,
Wario Ware, (already finished)
Mario Party,
Brain Training,
Super Smash Brothers Brawl,
Fire Emblem,
Battalion Wars Wii
All those games SHOULD come out next year. Then you have the new franchises for the Wii:
Project H.A.M.M.E.R
Day of Disaster
Those two are important to get out and show the world new Nintendo franchises.
Finally, Christmas seems to be the most important release would be:
Wii Motor Sports...or Wii Sports 2.
Seriously, if Nintendo can't get their act together and release ALL of these games for Next year they may have a hard time next year. But, all of those games in '07 would mean major momentum all throughout the year.
Finally, '08 won't be left in the dark.
'08 we should see:
Mario Kart, Tennis, and perhaps Golf.
Then see NEW franchises from Nintendo.