Those of us who played games before Sony may remember a time of the leaders of the one world rule in gaming. Of course I'm talking of Nintendo's monopoly in the 80's. There are also those here who remember how it was before Nintendo. The industry was a sand castle at high tide. But what can the past teach us about the future; for if we learn nothing from the mistakes of the past then we are going to see a replay. Is it inevitable that there will be another crash? Is the industry imune to such recesions in its glutenous state? Will the PC, handheld, and console markets all be affected, and how could it ever happen again? These are the real questions any annylyst must be asking themselves as the industry makes another blind leap over the perpetual bottomless pit of transitioning to the next generation.
I believe it can be prevented, but we may still hit a noticible decline in sells before the industry realizes its mistakes. Buisnesses have cycles. They have their ups and they have their downs. As companies try to follow trends that they percieve as good strategies they begin to lose connection with the market. While following their in house plans the companies fail to see the source of problems, and they only recognize the symptoms.
Everybody is now trying to predict which direction the industry will go, but few are watching the actual market and where it is headed. One could say that the intense graphical upgrade of next gen machines will allow for or supplement the absence of any real change or progression in the integrity in which games are produced. The gameplay must improve. Less emphasis on formulative mission based gameplay and more focus on developing driving forces for which to play the game. The games next gen will obviously have longer development cycles and movie studio level budgets to support the hardwares' sound and graphical capabilties. I could also say that the console market will fall through in light of risky costly ventures in the game software market thus leaving handhelds as the only viable market for at least five years. Just like this gen companies are in great risk of not being able to turn profit just in the purpose of declaring ownership of the market. Next gen we not only need more cel shading capabilties and more polys and more real time lighting featuring variations of mood, atmosphere, temperature, value, hue, color, and intensity. We not only need graphical tricks that can simulate illusions of watercolor and oil paint for asthetic purposes. We need A list actors, symphony music, licensed soundtracks, and much more intensive character animations than we have seen on these present consoles (which are supposed to be able to produce any vision one could come up with; even a realistic zelda?).
What next generation really needs is depthening the gameplay experience. I want free standard online gaming. I believe the controller should become better at simulating our wants in the game. I would suggest a controller that is not only conforming and angled to fit the hands but also does more than any controller has ever done. A screen could become standard just as joysticks have. The left side of the pad would be your normal controller with a trigger and a shoulder button. Also a joypad and dpad. The right side should be a flight stick modified and attached to the left side with multiple functioning such as diagonal movements and turning. On top of the joystick there cold be another analog stick with the same trigger setup. The face buttons in my opinion should be modified cube layout. The surrounding x,y, and b buttons should be more unified so it is easier to go from one to the next. The color shouldn't be flamboiant just for the purpose of showing those of us with the ability to see color that the controller could get uglier. Seriously though if the designer wants to use his tools of 3d design properly then he would allow for a monochromatic color pallet, use nuetrals, and/or allow for the shape to be dominant and not the buttons we are not going to look at in the first place since we are smart enough to know how to decipher without preschool highlighting.
Microphone and voice simulation which is great from what I've heard on Xbox should also become standard. I want to speak through Link in an online/offline 3d multiplayer Zelda. The camera used with the PS2 has given me lots of ideas for controlling basically any game with combat using the hands in the game. The system could use the camera in a next gen system to track the movement of the hand without the use of lightgun technology. Imagine detaching the flight joysick from the rest of the controller and it being the tracer point that the camera follows and uses in a game like Zelda or Soul Calibur allowing you to swing the sword. Perhaps this idea would work best if the controller for a proposed next gen game console were actually two controllers (one held in each hand) which the system tracks as the player moves his/her hands for sword swiping or punching or aiming a gun. This two sperate prongs idea could be used to allow for each prong to be used as a joystick with tilt technology giving the gamer two flight sticks instead of a camera tracing technology. What do you guys prefer?
Enough fantacy of VR gadgets that could depthen and freshen the gaming experience. What will the corporations really do? Sony will rehash the SNES controller again. MS will complicate the controller layout so that it isn't really functional all while stealing what worked for Cube and Dreamcast..I mean Xbox. I predict that MS may be the only one that does offer a screen, camera, and/or mic with the controller. Nintendo may do what the others can't think to do, but they will also dumby up the design again portraying themselves as inferior despite their innovations.
Instead of hair and grass effects in games we will get dvd recorders. Instead of improved controllers we will get outrageous harddrives for what? MP3s? Pirating games? Cutting out the middle man and rentals with free demos for download instantly. Downloading old 2d games legally from say Nintendo or Sega?
The industry needs another revolution that can change the way we play not what we play on the machine. I don't need any of the functions of a PC in my gaming machine like dvd playback. The purpose of the game console is to be a stripped down computer that is cheap and soley plays games.
The industry continues to give into shoddy shortcut money making schemes and loses those buyers that are traditionally longtime customers. By applying mainly to the softcore croud the game industry is vulnurable to collapse when the softcore and noncore move on. There will be little to no hardcore left because the hardcore is there for actually rewarding experiences and is smart enough to think for themselves and realize the thrill is gone long before the drones of "cool" game croud ever nows it.
The ultimate nail in the coffin is that there can only be 2. No more no less. Two consoles can be owned by some college kids, but 3 or 4. With the fragmented market there is no way to apply to the broad market to sell games. Half the gamers are portable. The other half is split 3 ways in uneven portions. This means one must play the smaller range and availabilty of A quality titles on the one system one owns rather than being able to buy nearly every good game that comes out which one would do if the games weren't all spread out over what looks to be a new generation of 5 machines. PSP, GBCube, X2, N5, and PS3...a bit crowded isn't it? And who is to say that another company isn't learking in the shadows with a worthy gaming machine that noone is expecting. Greed; that "if I can't have it all then I'll help kill the beast," mantality is going to end the industry.
I posted this on another site and then responded to another person with the following post.
The market cannot support 5 systems and you know it Strider. The post says in it that this has not been a profitable generation with four (five if you count DreamCast) systems. Nintendo posted loses earlier in the year despite GBA sales. Nintendo could hold the momentum coming out of this gen owning already 98% of the handheld market and awesome sales this holiday which may affect the direction of the rest of the generation as PS2 sales slow and Xbox sales dwindle. If pricing wars insue to counter Cube sells then MS and Sony stand to lose more money in console sells than they could possibly gain in profits from game sells. MS is spending billions and getting nothing from this venture but the ultimate downfall of the whole industry.
I propose that if the number of systems is not limited and the level of innovation does not rise then the flemsy mainstreme market will disperse while the hardcores are the only ones left buying games and they will all be split up between 5 consoles unable to buy all of the games they could potentially buy killing the market. The industry isn't superman and cannot survive nonprofitability. Plus what is the purpose of even moving on to the next gen and buying another $300 system if nothing new is offered?
the industry thinks it is so big that it can't outgrow it own market. Well today we may be despensable users, but tommorow we will be valued again.
Topic: The great crash of.....05 (Read 13425 times)
