Topic: Khushrenada's Annual Oscar Thread. 2018 Edition.

[Khushrenada]

My Thoughts on the Year of Movies in 2017

Man, these Oscar threads keep getting made closer and closer to the start of the ceremony. Next year, I'll be typing it just ahead of the show. 

In truth, part of the delay was that it's taken me awhile to see this films. 2017 has been the year that my interest in movies has taken a hit. I've found it harder and harder to find the will to go to the theater to see movies. Even my movie watching has diminished. In 2017, I watched about 90 movies and a few of those were ones I'd seen before. Now that might still seem like a lot to some people but most telling is that from September to end of December (the last 4 months of the year), I only watched 20 movies. About 5 a month compared to about 8 or 9 a month for the rest of the year. Yet, even that total number of 90 is low from what I've been averaging. In 2016, I saw 172 movies, at least. Chances are I might have cracked 200. That number of 172 is titles I saw for the first time but I still had cable for the first part of 2016 and would re-watch movies I'd seen on TCM or The Movie Channel. I'm pretty sure that's about the same number in 2015 but I've only got 100 titles listed because it wasn't until mid July that I started keeping track of new movies I'd just seen for me to then add to an all-time list I had started making to keep track and see if I could figure out just how many movies I'd watched in life. I'm highly positive that for the last 4 years (at least) prior to 2017, I probably had an average of watching 1 movie every 2 days. That ratio could be a bit low but it's definitely not overestimating my film habits.

So, what changed? I'd say it's been a bunch of factors. One big thing is probably TV. Near the end of 2016 and going into 2017, I began watching a lot more in TV shows I either missed out on or wanted to re-watch. With the amount of movies I've been watching in the past few years, I haven't really been watching a lot of TV and if there was a show I was watching, I'd watch new episodes but haven't bothered to view any repeats. Not like 10 years ago where I'd re-watch The Simpson or The Office or even something like Enterprise. As well, I bunch of shows I really liked wrapped up like Mad Men, Parks and Recreation or Person of Interest and there's other stuff I just got bored of watching like Elementary or Shark Tank. That left me free to view more films. Lately, TV is something I've been going back to. Around the end of 2016, I re-watched Parks and Recreation. I've re-watched some of the early The Office episodes I hadn't seen now in almost 10 years. I've caught up on and saw all of Orphan Black. I went through Community, Arrested Development and Star Trek: Deep Space Nine. Rewatched all of Batman: TAS and then Batman Beyond since there were some later episodes of that series I had never seen yet. I've been working through all episodes of Good Eats and am about over halfway in that series. I'm slowly finishing through Star Trek: Voyager. I've gone through Star Trek: Discovery. I'm a couple episodes away from catching up to and being current with Arrow, Supergirl, The Flash and Legends of Tomorrow which dropped in the summer of 2016 only to come back to them. I've been completely impressed by Better Call Saul, Mr. Robot, Fargo and American Crime Story: Season 1. (Season 2 just doesn't have the same intrigue factor sadly.) That's just some of what I've been watching but it illustrates how my viewing habits have changed a bit and how TV has a lot of addicting programs.

Another factor has been video games. Breath of the Wild completely took over a lot of my free time in the first couple months it was out and I'm still playing around in it on occasion on the anniversary of its release. While it may have dominated a lot of my console time, my 3DS has still been at my side as I've played a few other titles on it as I still like that system a lot. BotW has still ignited my passion for gaming and I've been wanting to do it more.

Movie watching, on the other hand, had begun to feel like a chore, at times. Maybe it was just bad timing but I there hasn't really been a lot of movies that have wowed me or excited me like in past years. Going to the theater to see what I've felt were a lot of average movies just started creating disappointment in that activity. Even movies I watched at home, the stuff I had seen before was just so-so or worse. Last year, I saw the 1927 silent movie The Jazz Singer and in November I saw Fantasia. With that, I've now seen all 100 movies in AFI's Original 100 Years 100 Movies list of 1998. I then checked their 2007 10 Year Anniversary 100 Movie list and the only one I need to see to complete that is The Sixth Sense. (Yes, I've yet to see it.) In any case, I really feel like I saved the worst for last with those two films. I also hit the halfway mark off the original 1001 Movies to See Before You Die list in that series of books. Of course, that number might change based on the various editions which have seen the list add and drop films over the years. Again, that has led to some of the perfunctory feeling of movies almost seemingly like a chore as I've checked out some of these titles just to sort of keep chugging along on that list and its not like every movie they list is a winner.

But, even keeping up with new releases has begun to wear on me and keeping up with Oscar season just hasn't been that interesting either. I finally got around to watching The Post last week and just Phantom Thread yesterday. And I never did get around to seeing Call Me By Your Name but that seemed to have a pretty quick and limited release. It also marks the first time in about 6 years that I haven't seen all the Oscar nominated movies before the program. Maybe it's a bit of last year and what I thought was a weaker year for films as well continuing into this year but I just haven't been that excited or interested in the stuff getting nominated of late. That said, I have seen 12 movies already in 2018 so that average is going up a bit and I am actually looking forward to a bunch of movies coming out later this year. Last year, the only movie I was really looking forward to was Guardians of the Galaxy 2 but it wasn't as good as the original to me. I did get excited for Blade Runner 2049 and I think it should have been one of the nominees for Best Picture this year yet at the same time I'm conflicted about it. I love it and hate it at the same time. I'm not really a fan of the original Blade Runner either. I finally got around to seeing the original about three years ago and it wasn't at all what I expected based on the pictures and clips and summaries I'd read about it before. I've never gone back to it nor did I get the vibe that Ford was a replicant or understand why that was such a big obsession for people about the original as it seems to be completely irrelevant to the story of the movie. I think 2049 is better than the original but it is maybe to beholden to it as well.

So, for me, that's what 2017 has felt like. A weak year of movies with just a couple good points but nothing special and more flawed movies than true gems. TV and Gaming were the better industries in 2017.

[Khushrenada]

This Year's Rankings

With that said, let's get to the selected crop of nominees this year.

Unranked -  Call Me by Your Name. As mentioned, I never got around to it just like I almost didn't get around to The Post and finally just decided to go and see Phantom Thread yesterday so that I almost saw them all. Like a lot of movies nominated this year, the trailer just didn't motivate me or interest me in this movie and I just couldn't get past that disinterest to see it in time.

[Khushrenada]

8. Phantom Thread - I still haven't seen some of P.T. Anderson's earlier work like Boogie Nights or Magnolia but I have seen most of his more recent stuff from There Will Be Blood onwards. (Just the documentary Junun is the only thing I haven't seen and was only aware of it when double checking everything he's done since TWBB.) There Will Be Blood is still the best thing I think he's done from what I've seen and the fact that he was teaming with Day-Lewis for what Day-Lewis is saying is his final role had me intrigued with high hopes. Then I saw a trailer for it and completely lost all interest in this movie. It looked like a dull and boring mess. When it was released, reviewers didn't seem to be that excited over it either so it looked to be an Oscar also-ran. But then, it surprised a lot of people by getting 6 nominations including a Best Picture nomination and Best Director nomination. (The Day-Lewis nomination always felt like an inevitability unless the movie was a complete stinker.) In the past week as the ceremony came closer to airing, I saw some comments online of more people really talking up and liking the movie. In fact, when I did my yearly check of the top ten movies of the year on Roger Ebert's site, Phantom Thread was the number 2 movie of the year. (Lady Bird was their number 1 choice.) That comes from all the critics who contribute to that site putting together their top ten lists and then ranking all those choices and tabulating them together. So, I still went in with low expectations but I guess I was partly hopeful that I was wrong about this expectations.

And, in a way, I was. Whoever was responsible for the trailer should probably be fired. It really didn't provide an accurate picture of the film but then it didn't really provide much of any picture. Thinking hard about it, I guess the impression it gave was that a woman comes into Day-Lewis's life and he loves her but she upsets his life and seems to be pushing him to madness or he's pushing her to madness. And, I suppose, that picture might even be accurate or one way to see the movie but that's not a description I'd completely agree with. Here's how I'd describe this film. It starts out by being more like an English romance or period piece like a Merchant/Ivory type film or maybe even something in the 50s or 60s. Day-Lewis's character of Reynolds has fallen out of love with a lady but then he finds a new woman whom he finds inspiration in and is his newest muse. This muse, Alma, is partly charmed but partly at odds with Reynolds. Reynolds expects everyone to conform to his way of tolerated behavior but Alma finds herself conflicted as she wants to be love Reynolds and be loved by him in her way of doing things. Alma does end up conforming to a lot of Reynolds whims. This is seen most obviously through a couple breakfast scenes which have been talked about a lot through other reviewers and commenters. There a comes a point where Alma isn't sure what her standing with Reynolds is anymore but she finds a way to finally become important to him and affect him in a great degree. However, that connection soon starts to unravel again and the question and climax is what Reynolds and Alma are going to do about it. The answer caused me to laugh out loud. It just seemed to be a real tonal change over the past two hours and verged on farce or comedy to me. Especially with some of Day-Lewis's facial reactions.

This is an odd movie. Early on, for the first hour, I was finding the movie rather pleasant. In my head, I'm even thinking it might be something my mother would be interested in seeing. The score by Jonny Greenwood added to the appeal and feeling of it being a sort of romantic drama of yesteryear. Despite various pieces about the persnickety behavior of Reynolds character, sure, he might be a bit priggish but he's not a monster as some have made him out to be or compared to someone in real life like Harvey Weinstein. The movie does go under a bit of a change after the first hour in which Alma's motivations began to be questioned and wondered about by the viewer creating a bit of intrigue. Nothing highly thrilling but curious. It's the Alma character who really is the main character of the movie even though Day-Lewis seems to be getting all the attention for his role. But then that ending happens and it just makes this an odd film. I don't hate the movie. There is a lot I do like about it. It's not that visually striking to me and knowing the story now, I'm not sure I'd ever really revisit this film. It's not as bad as the trailer made out but it's not really something I'd have much to recommend about it. There's nothing really standout or overly special about it to me. Even though the next couple movies I've ranked ahead of it have some scenes that felt contrived and irked me, there's nothing about this movie that I hated even with its silly ending. You generally don't hate something that makes you laugh. It's just that at the same time there's nothing about the movie I really loved or any part of it that I think is exceptional. So, for that, it gets the 8th spot.

[Khushrenada]

7. The Post - Now this is a movie that I may want to criticize more than praise but that's just because it includes some eye-rolling moments that just fell flat and they are what I think of most instead of the rest of a mostly good movie. For that, I blame Spielberg. I think this is his weakest movie since Munich.
(Of course, I've yet to get around to seeing The BFG to know for sure.) Sometimes, Spielberg can get a bit hokey or let's say unsubtle with a message and he definitely leans into that here at the end. Probably the biggest, most egregious moment is when Carrie Coon's character is reciting a court ruling coming through on a telephone and tearing up to emphasize the importance of this message. (Also hilarious is how Carrie's character is about to tell everyone the court's vote of whether in favor or not and some random dude suddenly shouts out the news. In a movie that was sort of promoted as a bit of female empowerment with Streep's character, it seemed like a misstep to suddenly come in and interrupt Coon with the verdict announcement.) Then there is the last couple scenes of Nixon declaring war on The Washington Post and then a guard finding the thieves during their Watergate break-in with the music playing it up because we know what comes next. It's like the ending of Godzilla 1998 with Matthew Broderick. At the end of the movie, it goes back to Madison Square Garden where all the velociraptors baby Godzillas had died only to show one egg had survived and out pops another Godzilla. SE-QUEEEEEEELLLLL!!!!!!! (Except the sequel is the 1975 movie All The President's Men and it's already been made so this is really a prequel. Who knew?) It was such an unnecessary moment but it's like Spielberg has to pay homage to the inspiration for this film but it just made me shake my head.

Since Roger Ebert died, I found the reviewers carrying on in his name on his site to be an inferior replacement and don't really check in on that site much anymore. However, the review done for The Post pretty much matches my thoughts so to save time on typing, here's the link for it. I do want to say that I never really knew anything about The Pentagon Papers but learning about them and the information they contained is pretty amazing even with the Vietnam conflict long-ended. The story and the issues faced by The Washington Post during this time were pretty engaging. I liked the cast. It took me a moment to place David Cross. I recognized the voice but without glasses and with hair, it took a moment to figure out who he was. Thanks to Breaking Bad and now Better Call Saul, I'm a big fan of Bob Odenkirk and I've now come to realize a lot of the other parts he's done before those shows and how long he's worked with David Cross so the fact that they were together in the film was just a connection that I liked for that fact alone. I think this is actually one of the better roles that Streep has gotten a nomination for as well so that gives the film another point in its favor (even if she and Hanks also have a "Important Message Statement" scene at the end). In the end, it's the Yin and Yang of Spielberg. He's still one of the all-time best Directors in the business and he can craft a slick engrossing picture but he can also be a bit melodramatic and lean in to hard on a message.

[Khushrenada]

6. Darkest Hour - Darkest Hour probably owes a lot to Dunkirk for helping make it really relevant this year. I suppose it could make for an interesting double feature as Dunkirk shows what life was like for the soldiers stuck on foreign soil while Darkest Hour shows the home front and what had been done to get them to the point and get them away.

(To be continued)

[Khushrenada]

Now, I admit, at this point, it became really hard to figure out a final ranking for these films. Not so much because they were all exceptional but because they had all some limitations to me, parts or choices that just held me back from completely loving the film. They also did a lot of stuff really well and I'm comparing and going back in my forth of how I liked this part or this moment and is better than this other film and this moment. That's always the problem I face in other years during the middle section of the list in between the weak films and the ones I am completely won over by and this year pretty much most of the films are what I would consider those types of middle films in other years. To be honest, I'd probably put Blade Runner 2049, The Disaster Artist and I, Tonya over all these films except maybe my number one choice but none of them were nominated so I'm stuck working with these. Here they are, though, I could see myself totally changing the order again in another month or two.

5. Lady Bird

[Khushrenada]

4. The Shape of Water

[Khushrenada]

3. Get Out

[Khushrenada]

2. Dunkirk

[Khushrenada]

1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri - In the past few years I've been doing these threads, I have never questioned my number one choice as much as I do this year. Part of the reason why no one is sure what movie is going to win Best Picture is because it's very hard to rank the movies nominated since, in my mind, there isn't really a great masterpiece. (Sorry Get Out fans.) For all the positives these top 5 movies boast, they've also got certain negatives that can be pointed out and they kind of hold these films back. And Three Billboards is no exception. I've seen some people liken it to one hated Best Picture, the infamous Crash. But that's a false comparison. Crash is a lousy film. I can't think of a positive thing to say about that movie. Three Billboards is far better than that. It's about flawed people doing and taking actions they think are right even though they are in the wrong or we may disagree with those actions. It has some powerful moments of what happens when people with uncompromising opinions butt up against each other and their escalating responses as they refuse to back down. I'm not just talking about the insanity of Mildred attacking the police station in response to her billboards getting burned or Sam Rockwell's character throwing the billboard salesmen out a window for his perceived role in helping Mildred attack Willoughby. One of the more devastating moments is the flashback to the night Mildred's daughter dies and the escalating conversation between them.

People involved with the movie say it was meant to provoke and it does. The characters repel and attract you at times. However, that can be a bit messy. At one point, a priest stops by to talk to Frances McDormand's character Mildred about taking down the billboards and she launches into a take down of him and the Catholic church. We never see the character again and the scene just seems to be there as a way to express some outrage at the Catholic church and its sex scandals. This movie just wants to rage against the world. At the same time, it doesn't really have much in the way of solutions or how to resolve that provocation. They only thing it seems to point to is that people have to do stuff they come to regret to be willing to extend forgiveness to others finally but that's a pretty crappy solution and even that is kind of murky. In fact, the movie ends with two characters on their way to possibly kill a guy because he's quite shady and probably deserves it for something so maybe they've learned nothing about taking justice into their own hands after all.

In the end, this movie had moments that made me laugh, made me sad, moments I cheered for and moments I held my breath / tensed up at what might be about to unfold next. The movie twisted and turned in different ways and it did worm its way into my brain and keep me thinking about it. Isn't that what you hope any good movie will do? Even now, a couple months later, I still have moments where a scene or moment pops in my head and think about it. This movie has continued to linger on my thoughts a long time after and there aren't too many movies that have that kind of staying power with me. I don't know how much longer it will last but the fact that it's been able to reach me enough to do that is ultimately why I'm giving it the number one ranking out of this list of nominees.

[Khushrenada]

For those interested (and to help me find them quicker in the future), here are the past year Oscar Threads I've done: 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Get Out wins a Best Picture Award, and Jordan Peele wins Best Director....


Does this translate over to the Oscars?

Don't be too disappointed if Get Out wins that Best Picture award.
(although I'm sure all the Black Panther HYPE may influence that black awareness to benefit Get Out winning)

[Khushrenada]

It won't bother me. As I tried to make clear, I think there is a case for the top five I've listed and if any of them win, good on them. There isn't a film I'm firmly rooting for or stumping for. I was honestly surprised myself at how high Get Out stayed in my rankings. Again, as I said, I'm already doubting myself and I how I ranked those films and if I should put Get Out in the number 2 spot even because, as much as Three Billboards has stayed in my mind, there has been parts of Get Out that have stayed with me since seeing it as well. Dunkirk hasn't stayed with me nearly as well but I'll elaborate more on my take in awhile. For now, I want to start getting into the different categories and my predictions on who will win what.

[Khushrenada]

My track record in predictions on this forum.

2014: 20/24 (Still my best here)

2015: 14/24 (My worst show in years)

2016: 16/24 (Average)

2017: 16/24 (Average)


A big factor is the Wild 6 categories each year (which I'll get to in a bit) which make or break an Oscar Prediction path to glory. But, you may want to take my choices for your own Oscar Pool / Bet / Contest / Whatever. Or feel free to pick your own and claim NWR Oscar Expert glory for yourself.

[Khushrenada]

Let's go through the Acting Categories first. At this point, they pretty much all seem to be a sure thing. (Although La La Land seemed to be a sure thing for Best Picture also with all the other Best Picture awards it had along the way to Oscar Night and tied for most Oscar Nominations any film has ever had but Moonlight was a major surprise in many ways. So, one can never be 100% sure but let's consider these as 95% sure.)

Best Actor - Gary Oldman

In the various different award ceremonies held by things like SAG, BAFTA, The Golden Globes, etc, Gary Oldman has been winning over and over again. It's got the feeling of a bit of a life-time achievement award for a lot of good work he hasn't always been recognized for and people seem to most like the performance which saw the film get a nom for Best Picture. There are some supporters of Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, or Daniel Kaluuya but even if others are dividing their votes to one of those choices, it's not like this is a 2 way race where he might be upset. There should be enough of a majority voting for him that he gets it. Sorry Denzel. I think you got the nom because people didn't want to nominate James Franco (and there may be some remorse for giving it to Casey Affleck last year.

Best Actress - Frances McDormand

Same as Gary Oldman and all the other Acting Categories but basically the same 4 have pretty much swept through award ceremonies and been winning them all. There's been talk of it being a close race between Frances and Sally Hawkins who has to do perform without talking for nearly the whole movie. That silent acting worked in Jean Dujardin's favor for The Artist when he won Best Actor. However, there are a lot of moments where Frances is silent too and you can see her wheels turning or cracks in tough façade. It's a showier role perhaps which makes it stand out more than Hawkins reserved demeanor in her film. Truth is, there has been some support for all the roles here with some people really liking I, Tonya, others are gaga over Lady Bird and a few think Streep's performance was one of her best in recent years. However, if people don't want Frances to win, I think they'd pretty much have to vote Hawkins as throwing it to someone else they are passionate about probably won't stop the expected majority voting for Frances (even if she has mentioned she doesn't really need a second Oscar and voters can give it to someone else. Hollywood loves that humblebrag!)

Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell

Like Gary Oldman, this seems to be a bit of a life-time achievement award for Rockwell as though he's due for an award for a lot of great performances he's given over they years. And I'm fine with that. Dude has danced his way into making a lot of movies more entertaining with his presence. However, some people are wondering, why not Willem Dafoe? Isn't he equally due? There was a lot of critical love for The Florida Project which Dafoe is nominated for but he's basically the only nomination that film received. There is a possibility that if some people are really passionate about that movie and want it to get some recognition then Dafoe would be the way to do it. Plus, not everyone is that in love with the character Rockwell portrays in Three Billboards but, at this point, it just seems like it is Rockwell's moment.

Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney

This has been touted as a 2 person race between Janney and Laurie Metcalf but it has been Janney receiving the award in other award ceremonies leading up to this and people are calling it for her. She plays a pretty heartless mom that keeps your attention and you don't easily forget her but it is a bit of a one note character. Laurie Metcalf plays a more fully formed human being / character. It's kind of a battle between Lady Bird and I,Tonya for this category and if Lady Bird is going to pick up any award this year, this is its best chance to do so but there is a lot of support for I,Tonya even though it didn't get a Best Picture nomination and Hollywood just seems to like Janney (See all the Emmy Awards she has received over the years starting with The West Wing). It seems like Oscars want her to join their club as well now.

[Khushrenada]

Let's tackle a few other categories I think are about 95% sure.

Best Director - Guillermo del Toro

This is an interesting category in that there are a bunch of first time nominees so there's a lot of fresh faces and interesting choices. For Peele and Gerwig, this is also their first major picture they've directed and while there might be times when the Academy has voted to give a first time director an Oscar, I can't think of any of the top of my head except for maybe some of the first years in Oscar's early history. The nomination is considered the award for a great debut effort but generally the Oscars want to see more of a record of good films by a director before giving it to them. While this is Nolan's first nomination, he has a filmography that the Academy may want to honor by giving him a win and although it is Paul Thomas Anderson's second directing nomination, he also has had some past films really loved by the Academy. However, del Toro has been the heavyweight of this category ever since this Awards season has begun likewise sweeping through various award ceremonies and, most telling of all, he won at the Director's Guild Award which has something like a 98% history of being the same winner on Oscar night. Even with the Academy's new diversity measures, I think the vast majority will still be voting del Toro.

Best Animated Feature - Coco

This doesn't seem to be a contest. No one is even bothering to pretend there's any drama in this category. I never got around to seeing Coco but it's been highly reviewed as another Pixar masterpiece and the Academy has no problem throwing an Oscar their way as long as the pic is decent. That means no Cars.

Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name

A bit of a surprise was seeing Logan nominated in this category. One of the more prestigious nominations a comic book / superhero has ever received. Likewise, I glad The Disaster Artist got a nomination. (Though I hoped for a best picture nom or best actor nom so that Tommy Wiseau would probably be included at the ceremony. Not sure he'd be there for a screenplay nom.) However, James Ivory, the writer behind this screenplay has been the frontrunner and even received Best Adapted honor from the Screen Writers Guild. Plus, he's a long time Hollywood favorite who was part of the Merchant/Ivory team that produced a lot of Oscar favorites like A Room With A View, The Remains of the Day and Howard's End. The top of British dramas I enjoy for some reason. Yet he's never won an Oscar so, again, this is considered a life-time achievement award and a way to make up for going away empty handed for all these years.

[Khushrenada]

Now we are getting into some trickier categories. Let's call these 75 - 80% sure.

Makeup - Darkest Hour

This is a often a weird category with strange nominees and results (See Star Trek and Suicide Squad as past winners.) But this year, there isn't really anything too special in the makeup nominations. While stuff like Star Trek or Suicide Squad had a lot of characters with unique faces and skin that needed to be applied, the nominees this year are pretty simple. There's Wonder where they deformed Jacob Trembley's face, there's Victoria and Abdul for some reason and there's Darkest Hour. DH got a lot of talk by Gary Oldman talking about the extensive time it took in makeup to get him to look like Churchill and a lot of people seem impressed but it that it seems to be the frontrunner here and I don't really see how the other nominees can counter it.

Production Design - The Shape of Water

Shape of Water is the frontrunner here. One thing that people have liked about the film are the sets and how they evoke that 50s / 60s feel of places and movies which this film pays a bit of a tribute too. Blade Runner 2049 could be a spoiler here and is the only other choice I'm seeing some people throw out since it had some very impressive sets which help create its look. Beauty and the Beast might be a possibility but it doesn't seem to be getting much attention. Blade Runner's box office total is considered a factor in why it didn't get a Best Picture nomination so fickle voters may choose to stick with The Shape of Water for succeeding better. Since 2000, there have been five winners of Best Production that won yet were not nominated also for Best Picture. One of those was Pan's Labyrinth. So, if voters like the production of a del Toro film before, I can see them repeating here but I still really like Blade Runner's sets more.

Costume Design - Phantom Thread

This is a tricky category as well. The general thinking is that Phantom Thread gets it since it had some nice dresses and the clothing was part of the movie's fabric. The designer has won before with The Artist and has had other nominations with PTA movies so winning and be nominated a bunch can help. At the same time, there potential spoiler of Beauty and the Beast had their costumes made by a two-time winner who's been around a bit longer. However, she's also nominated for Darkest Hour. I don't see that getting a lot of votes but it could split support for her or it just makes this a 4 person race increasing her odds of winning. The Costume Design Guild Awards don't really line up that well with Oscar winners aside from the Period category which has more of a correlation. In that case, it was The Shape of Water that won. However, Bafta lines up much closer with only 1 miss in the last 10 years and they selected Phantom Thread this year so going with it. (Plus, people keep thinking Phantom Thread could upset the whole show with a lot of Academy members really liking it.)

Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049

This is Roger Deakins 14th nomination but he has yet to win. He's often lost out to movies that won Best Picture or were nominated for Best Picture. Unfortunately, BR2049 isn't a Best Picture nominee. Yet, from the moment BR2049 came out, the talk and reviews about the movie all seemed to specifically bring up and highlight the cinematography. It seems like there is a real push to get Deakins a win and he does deserve. He's definitely one of the best cinematographers in the business and Blade Runner 2049 seems to be his masterwork. It totally impressed me and was one of the strongest element of that picture. Now, the cinematographers name isn't on the ballet so people think he could still be missed but I think there are a lot of savvy people in the Academy who are aware of who he is and what he is nominated for that it will be made the winner. Still, there's also a lot of support for Dunkirk which is my runner-up in the category. 70mm is the best way to shoot movies and it really helps Dunkirk look as impressive as it is even if the images themselves weren't as magical and thrilling as Blade Runner but that strong clarity and focus really does help. There's also a bit of support of The Shape of Water but I don't see it pulling off a win. I'm sure it's Blade Runner 2049 or Dunkirk and I think Blade Runner is just too impressive to ignore.

Best Foreign Language Film - A Fantastic Woman

This is can be a tricky category. Sometimes it's a lock with a film that people think should have been a Best Picture Nominee or even better is a Best Picture nominee. Not so this year. It seems to be a race between The Square and A Fantastic Woman. The Square actually has a familiar face with Elisabeth Moss in it (fresh from getting a lot of press for her role in The Handmaid's Tale which won big at the Emmy's.) However, it's also a bit more a black comedy and focused on different moments or tales surrounding an Art Gallery if my understanding is correct. On the other hand, A Fantastic Woman is more a drama telling one story of the trials and tribulations faced by a trans woman. The main actress in the movie is even presenting at the Awards which could be a sign of it winning. Plus, it allows the Academy to make a bit of statement by having a movie about a trans person and showing empathy to their struggles and the Academy does like to make political statements if they can like last year's Foreign Language winner.

[Khushrenada]

Let's get to the Wild Six. I hate these categories. They are the toughest to predict and have set me back quite a bit the last few years.

Best Live Action Short - DeKalb Elementary

Best Documentary Short - Edith + Eddie (last minute change. Check the time stamps. It works)

Best Animated Short - Dear Basketball

Best Sound Mixing - Baby Driver

Best Sound Editing - Dunkirk

Best Visual Effects - Blade Runner 2049

[Khushrenada]

I gotta get this done. Here's the rest:

Film Editing: Baby Driver

Documentary Feature: Faces Places

Original Score: The Shape of Water

Best Song: Remember Me - Coco

Original Screenplay - Three Billboards

Best Picture - Three Billboards

[Evan_B]

If you didn't see Loving Vincent then I feel bad for you, if the Academy votes for Coco over Loving Vincent then I feel bad for them.

Loving Vincent is one of the best films of the year.

EDIT: CHEESE AND CRACKERS THE ACADEMY IS A GROUP OF UNCULTURED SWINE. Coco was the better-distributed of the films, Loving Vincent is superior in every damn way.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I've never even heard of it... but maybe I'll just throw it up on the Netflix account and see when it arrives at my house.

Hey Khush, how did you do prediction wise?
I see Get Out got the "Best Original Screenplay", and FishSex got "Best Pic"

how far off were you this year?

[Khushrenada]

My usual, it seems. 16/24

I feel I could have done better if I'd had a bit more time to research and reason on some of the last categories but I had to suddenly rush the rest and get out the door to an Oscar party I was attending. However, early on as Kimmel was doing his monologue I was still debating about Best Picture since it is the only award with a preferential ballet and I was asking myself what might be the 2nd or 3rd choice for people who voted Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour or Dunkirk. Would they choose Get Out or Three Billboards next or would The Shape of Water come up sooner? The Shape of Water seemed like it would appeal to those voters sensibilities more than those other ones but I decided to stick with Three Billboards anyways because it had a SAG ensemble win which has been a big Best Picture factor for awhile but doesn't seem to matter in this new preferential ballot era. Also, Three Billboards did win Best Drama at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. Those wins don't always translate to the Oscar Best Picture but I felt like it was the more political film and becoming the inevitable winner. As well, it's a long time since the film with the most Oscar nominations won Best Picture so it further made leery to select The Shape of Water as Best Picture.

My brother beat me this year. He got 18 out of 24. He correctly predicted Get Out winning Best Original Screenplay (which I knew people were listing as the front runner) and for Sound Mixing he stuck with Dunkirk while I split the Sound categories and went with Baby Driver thinking its mix of music, bullets and dialogue would be the showier and more complete sound package but I was wrong. Baby Driver didn't win anything. Maybe it was the Kevin Spacey factor or people just really preferred Dunkirk more.

Frankly, The Shape of Water bucks a long time rule that has been happening for awhile in which the Best Picture winner also wins the Screenplay category it is nominated for. It was another reason why I was hesitant to vote it Best Picture and if Get Out was going to win Best Screenplay then I thought it might actually pull of the Best Picture win also. In the end, I decided that if Three Billboards was the inevitable nominee than it may very well upset Get Out to win Screenplay and stick to the trend but that tradition was finely broken tonight. Even if I did reason out The Shape of Water for Best Picture like I was close to doing then I'd have probably selected it for Best Screenplay also and gotten it wrong but I just thought it was important to stick to the rule. Anything can happen now. It's a wild world out there come next year.

[Khushrenada]

The 12 categories I talked about in detail and felt were easier were all correct. It was those last 12 I had to rush on that cost me only getting 4 out of 12 there.

[nickmitch]

I wish i would've seen more of the nominees this year.  I was hoping to do one of those marathon screenings, but work got in the way.  Maybe next year.