Now THIS is a thread I can participate in! All that specs talk in the Rumor thread..ugh.
Let's see...
-I think the consensus is that Zelda NX/U will be there at launch.
-Also at launch, a Wii U port. If they're trying to move systems, they might go with Sm4sh with all DLC and bill is as an ultimate / definitive version. Honestly, if Nintendo tries to launch a port WITHOUT the DLC, they're just going to piss off a lot of fans... and these will be the same fans that bought Wii U at launch, aka the same fans that want to get NX on day 1. Don't piss them off Nintendo.
The only way I can see Nintendo trying to release a Smash port at launch WITHOUT DLC is if it's not a port, but a remake from the ground up for NX to act as a trojan horse of sorts. Have fans double dip, and promise them that this version is basically forward compatible with Smash 5, meaning if you purchase this version, you'll get a download code for when smash 5 comes out that acts as an expansion pack (but sold stand-alone for those who didn't double dip on Sm4sh).
I highly doubt this scenario, but I believe that having both Zelda and Smash at launch will sell systems. Nintendo die-hards are notorious for double dipping, which is exactly why Nintendo doesn't miss an opportunity, but these two titles may just entice those who are usually on the fence (Ian types*) to adopt early, especially the ones who may have skipped on Wii U and want a crack at Smash..
*I doubt this would sway our beloved Ian Sane, but people of like mind are the ones that take that wait and see approach and pick up the system late on the cheap for those key games. Couple this scenario with decent 3rd party launch support, and the system starts looking promising, no?
What else..
I think by Summer we should get a Mario game, just not THE Mario game. Assuming we have decent 3rd party titles at launch, and assuming nintendo doesn't **** up the new VC shop, I could see them releasing a class B mario title and saving the next big 3D title for their first holiday season. Maybe a Mario Maker port/update/true sequel but if you let a guy dream, I wouldn't mind seeing an HD remake of Mario Bros 1 or 3. In fact, I have a CRAZY idea..
Use the Wii U Paper Mario assets and remake the classic side scrollers in that style. Call it Super Paper Mario Bros. (which lets face it, sounds like an awkward enough title for Nintendo to use, and luckily drops the "new"). Hell, don't even throw in gimmicks, I don't need that. Duck Tales Remastered spoiled me and now I just want to experience Mario Bros 1 and 3 with a fresh coat of paint. If Nintendo has to throw in a gimmick, make them bonus areas. Add a new power-up, or add new secret rooms/areas that take advantage of that 3d gimmick used in Super Paper Mario, let me speed run through the game in plain ol side-scrolling 2D with that art style please.
I think this is the sort of title that doesn't require much time to develop, is an easy sell and helps fill in the gap before the holiday season.
Another good summer release would be Pikmin 4. We know Nintendo's been working on it some time, assuming they can update assets from Pikmin 3 I don't see why it isn't close to completion by now. Pikmin just has that summer feel in my eye so this makes sense to me.
Moving into the fall / holiday season, the next big Mario title needs to be there. I'm itching to see what a 'true' successor to Galaxy will be like after not getting it on Wii U. I know, I know, we just had a Mario title in the summer but fans should realize now that Nintendo considers Mario as a multi-genre IP. For better or worse, we have 5 distinct lines of business:
3D platform, 2D (2.5D?) platformer, Action/RPG, Sports, and Party.
Personally, 3D world just doesn't do it for me as the next big 3D title and the play style honestly is more reminiscent of the 2D platformer series. I loved the game overall, but Nintendo needs to show off an ambitious title to show that they can come up with new groundbreaking ideas. After two 3D Worlds and 5 New Super Mario Bros, even a long time Mario fan like me thinks it's getting a little stale. Yes, I'm the same guy who suggested a remake of SMB1/3 because yes I love my platformers, and the level design is always going to be top notch there, but I want to be amazed again, like when I saw Galaxy or Super Mario 64 for the first time. Preferably Nintendo would create a brand new IP with a radical new idea, but we all know they'll use Mario first and foremost if they can make it make sense. It's just been too long since Mario wow'd me, and what better time to release it than NX's first holiday?