Topic: So how will this gen play out? Post your predictions here.

[toddra]

Alright by the end of this year the next gen will be on full swing, Wii U will have had a whole year on the market, PS4 and Xbox One should theoretically be out by then, so lets have a place to share everyone's predictions on how things will, or should, turn out. You can be bold, realistic, or just wildly off the mark it is your choice. I will get things started since it is my thread.


Consoles

I think by the end Ps4 will be in first place buy by a much smaller margin than previous generations. I am thinking somewhere around the 50-60 Million somewhere in that area.


I think Wii U will come in second place somewhere around 35 millionish by the time it is all said and done.
I do think that Nintendo will pick up sales with their games as they look to be gearing up to give it a serious push but I think it will be N64 for third parties for the most part, there might be a few cross gen stuff and EA might stay away the entire run but someone will step up to take their place, I suspect Take 2 maybe Sega Sports will make a come back. Midway might make some headway in that area if they can forgive Nintendo for their past sins.

Xbox One will struggle, coming in at a distant third place around 25 million tops. I foresee them losing the third party support they have grown to enjoy and Steam rising up to take their place in the market.

I think Steam Box will be a moderate success, somewhere between Saturn and N64 numbers, probably around 15 to 18 million tops. I think it will appeal to a certain breed of the PC gamer who wants a more traditional console experience but with PC gaming quality. I also think that once they get going they will shake things up in the industry.


Mobile

I think 3DS/2DS is going to surpass Game Boy numbers once it really takes off. I suspect that after a while Nintendo and other companies will start releasing regular apps for the device that make it a semi-useful Tablet type device for certain consumers. I am figuring total hardware of 3DS compatible branded machines in the 120 million life time it will have a little longer life than Game Boy because I suspect Nintendo is going to continue to marry 3DS to Wii U in the future.


Android

as a gaming platform I think Android will fade away in the next five or six years. I think once Windows RT and Phone get going things will turn around for them and Android will slowly fade into obscurity at least for gaming especially once Steam makes it way onto phones/tablets that are of good quality and a fair price.


iOS

I am biased but I will still predict the end of Apple, they will slowly wind down and they will lose their expanded user base, reverting back to rely on their hard cores who will not be enough to keep things going with the fractured market and increased competition from Microsoft in their areas. I also think eventually ipads will become a fad and fade away, same with iPhone, i Pod might stick around as a media device for a while longer but I think by the end of the decade Apple will = Commodore.


Microsoft

I have faith in Windows I really do, I think now that they are getting the kinks worked out and addressing most consumers concerns with Windows 8 and RT they will start to get their tablet market share up to their PC market share forcing Google to buddy up to them and Apple to go away. I think with their recent investment into Nokia that shows they are taking the mobile industry more seriously than ever and they will bounce back. I am predicting by 2016 Windows Tablets will be up to about 80% of the market or in that area.



GAMES


Sony will fair pretty well this gen with more exclusives and strong third party support. I also think they will be the place for the dumping ground of anything and everything like PS2 was. I don't think they will get as many big new franchises as before, but I think they will get all the major sequels.

Nintendo will bounce back next year for sure. They will win back their core crowd and then their expanded crowd will start to consider the console once the games they want hit. I doubt they will ever get third party support back like SNES days so I am expecting them to either license games directly, or rely heavily on 2nd party and indie devs to pick up the slack. But I have faith their next Mario, Zelda, and Smash Bros. will surely be worth getting the console at for most fans once the price gets to their comfort zone. They can forget the casuals and try to get them onto 3DS because the gamepad is not near as casual friendly as the remote was.


Microsoft is going to be in trouble, they will start to lose support mid way into year two, similar to Gamecube, and it will be all downhill from there, moneyhats will get thrown around but I think they will have fewer third party games than before and will slowly reconsider their position in the game.


Steam with the rise of the Steam Box Valve will have more bargaining muscle to push more devs into releasing more games for the service especially the digital and catalog games which will pull people away from Microsoft.


Fanboy fantasy wishful thinking, Sega will release a REAL next gen console in 2015 and blow everyone away forcing Nintendo go to third party and make games for Sega for a change, MS will go bankrupt after buying out Apple only to discover it was a lost cause and Sony Playstation will just limp along as the second console people buy for PS2 compilations and HD Remakes.

[broodwars]

I expect that PS4 and Xbone will spend the 1st year or so basically neck-and-neck, with the PS4 having a slight advantage for most of it by virtue of Sony having more and far superior 1st party studios than Microsoft.  The media will gravitate towards Xbone coverage, as they've been conditioned this generation to be Microsoft gamers.  Barring an unexpected studio purchase by Microsoft, I expect Sony to lead in console sales at the end of the generation, followed closely by Microsoft.  Microsoft will continue to receive at best token support from Japanese 3rd parties, not helped at all by them waiting till 2014 to even release the Xbone in Japan.

The Wii U, meanwhile, will flounder, especially as Wii U holiday 2013 sales underwhelm against the PS4 and Xbone launches.  Mario Kart and Smash Bros. will sell quite a few consoles...until everyone realizes that Nintendo just ran out of games and they've chosen to not have the infrastructure to get more out in the near future.  The Wii U will continue to receive some 3rd party PS3/360 ports for the rest of 2014.  However, once 3rd parties stop supporting the current gen consoles after holiday 2014, the Wii U will solidify itself as the platform for Nintendo games only as no one else wants to make games for it.  It will have a decent lineup of Nintendo titles between long periods of drought for those that care about it, and even a few stellar titles, but in the face of total apathy it will fail to gain ground on the PS4 or Xbone.

Nintendo will, of course, weather this failure to a decent degree, as the 3DS will continue to be the dominant handheld platform and a solid software lineup out of Japan keeps Iwata's job safe from the angry investors.

[azeke]

More scam DLC and more developers going out of business.

[broodwars]

More scam DLC and more developers going out of business.

This is a business. If companies can't compete in that space, we're probably better off without them, especially given this coming generation's emphasis on the smaller, Indie titles.

[Shaymin]

Sony followed by Nintendo and Microsoft, who get their stuff wrecked by people realizing what NUADS do and rejecting the platform wholesale.

No platform outsells the 3rd place platform worldwide (the 360) this generation, and everyone freaks out, calls gaming doomed, etc.

Handheld gaming basically looks like it does in Japan - 3DS dominant, Vita has a profitable niche.

Mobile gaming dies once national governments start regulating the F2P games as what they are: gambling. It leads to the big-IAP abusers bailing on the system, leaving a bunch of $.99 games from developers who will make fine developers for console download services. By the end of the gen, phone development is considered to be the equivalent of AA baseball.

PC is there, and their zealots continue to use "PC gaming master race" without a trace of irony.

[broodwars]

Handheld gaming basically looks like it does in Japan - 3DS dominant, Vita has a profitable niche.

Mobile gaming dies once national governments start regulating the F2P games as what they are: gambling. It leads to the big-IAP abusers bailing on the system, leaving a bunch of $.99 games from developers who will make fine developers for console download services. By the end of the gen, phone development is considered to be the equivalent of AA baseball.

PC is there, and their zealots continue to use "PC gaming master race" without a trace of irony.

I didn't care enough to write anything about mobile or PC gaming, but that sounds right to me as well.  With the rise of stories about children racking up hundreds of dollars in IAP purchases, it seems inevitable that that bubble's due to burst soon.  As for PC gaming, that audience has been essentially the same since I was a kid.

[NWR_insanolord]

The PS3 will get out to a significant early lead based on Microsoft's forcing Kinect and making the console $100 more. Microsoft may or may not catch up.

Nintendo will be standing off to the side, for better or worse ignoring those two and having a relatively small but steady and profitable install base consisting of Nintendo diehards and being the second console for XB1/PS4 owners who want to bask in the glory of EAD Tokyo and Retro's endless parade of Donkey Kong games.

3DS will outsell every other platform but still get little to no attention from non-indie Western developers. Vita will sell decently well, but unlike the PSP will do well in terms of software too.

The market for games on mobile phones will still be there, but not to the extent it was at its peak. There will still be gems to be found if you can wade through the endless sea of freemium titles.

On the PC, developers will all abandon Windows and move all software support to Mac OS X, causing a massive suicide streak among the so-called "Master Race."

[ShyGuy]

AAA publishers will decline, AAA developers will continue to crash and close their doors. EA will shrink to fourth, maybe fifth place behind Activision, Ubisoft, Take-Two, and Warner Bros.

DLC and F2P will be exploited to ridiculous levels, causing a further decline in the industry.

Kickstarter will be abused as a direct pre-order system by publishers/developers who do not need to fund their game that way.

Multiple Indie developers will mature into mid-tier developers by the end of the generation.

Unity will be THE game engine of choice by the end of the generation.

Microsoft will change its company focus to business instead of consumer and Xbone may be the last true console by Microsoft.

Sony will do well, but it's financial gains will be mediocre due to the mire they are currently in.

Nintendo will keep doing its own thing, making money and enraging core gamers.

Steam will increase market share, Steam Mac and Linux will grow thanks to many more cross platform games.

Android and iOS will never dominate gaming due to their default control interface and incredibly low game prices.

Game industry as a whole will shrink due to aging fanbase and regurgitating cycle of hard core pandering. See the comic book industry over the last 20 years as an example.

[Ceric]

Though I, have to say, Video games are a lot easier to walk into a store and buy then comics are now days.

[Ian Sane]

I think the Wii U's fortunes took a major nose dive when MS backed out of their original XB1 plans.  The Xbox brand was pretty much going to commit suicide and Nintendo would end up number two by default but now the Wii U is clearly the least in touch with what people want out of a videogame console in 2013.  The PS4 has the edge on the XB1 due to not having a major PR gaffe on its reveal and not costing more money for inferior hardware.

So I predict the PS4 will win but the XB1 will do fine in second place as it no longer has anti-consumer features that would tank it.  The Wii U will finish last and I'm not sure it will last the whole generation.  I figure it will either get replaced early like the Saturn or Nintendo will switch to just handhelds.

I could see the whole generation just flopping though.  To justify the costs of development publishers have become more and more safe and need every game to be a big hit.  So they're catering to the mainstream and making works more derivative and generic.  But the mainstream doesn't need dedicated videogame systems.  They can make due with games on their tablet or smartphone.  The mainstream appeal of dedicated videogames systems is going to diminish more and more as this generation goes on.  As the industry seeks mainstream approval the audience will ironically become more and more hardcore.  Perhaps in such circumstances the cheaper-to-develop-for Wii U will do better but Nintendo is after the mainstream as well and won't appeal to hardcore gamers.  We could see the PS3 and Xbox 360 continue on while everything else flops.  Better for the Wii U, I guess, but Nintendo will still flounder against the established userbase of the older consoles.  Nintendo's current image is poisoned with all but the mainstream gamers that no longer have any need for consoles.

I could see indie devs leading a grunge-like upheavel of the dinosaurs currently running the industry, who seem unable or unwilling to say anything new anymore.  Or videogames will become so mainstream and dumbed down that anyone that gave a **** about them before 2006 will lose interest.

[Ceric]

The problem I have with the XBox One being 2nd is that it will share a vast amount of its library with the PS4 while the PS4 will have more library that is not shared and a cheaper price point.  WiiU will have a vastly different library, a cheaper price point, and, if Nintendo would get off their lazy butts and put Harmony style remote function and fix TVii, a different gimmick then the other two.  I honestly think that its going to be Sony then Nintendo then XBox One Worldwide.  Here in the States XBox One may take second.

[Pixelated Pixies]

The next generation, powered by the cloud, will culminate in Skynet coming online.
 
Video games will be a thing of the past.

[azeke]

The next generation, powered by the cloud, will culminate in Skynet coming online.
 
Video games will be a thing of the past.

If i get to ride with Arnold and fight with liquid metal scorpion, it will be a fair trade.

[pokepal148]

The PS3 will get out to a significant early lead based on Microsoft's forcing Kinect and making the console $100 more. Microsoft may or may not catch up.

the PS3 already has a significant lead on the xbone. by 7 years now i believe

[Wah]

M'lord i predict that xbox will fail! and that thee ps4 will soar with our humble nintendo in the middle!

[toddra]

I don't know how this fits into the equation but I realized something today, Playstation is in a far better position by default.

Playstations first generation on the market out sold Nintendo's first generation on the market, their second generation on the market outsold Nintendo's second gen and same with their third gen. It is no stretch of the imagination to expect their fourth generation on the market to be better than Nintendo's fourth so I got to thinking, in roughly two years Playstation as a brand will be 20 years old, Sony could easily capitialize on not only that milestone but all the nostalgia that have built up and wipe out the competition easily.


Think about it, all those millions of PS1, PS2 gamers who grew up on Playstation have the same fond memories of Ratchet and Clank, Crash, FF7, etc, as we do Mario, Zelda, DK, etc. Every gen Nintendo's core market shrinks and then when you take into account the Playstation will also be 20 years old imagine what type of campaign Sony will pull out to get warm fuzzy feelings out of their gamers. Nintendo did it heavily with Wii, relying on Virtual Console classics to get people all nostalgic for their system while they waited, and waited, for the games that never came. Now Nintendo has lost their mind, their marketshare, and a large portion of their supporters are now backing away I realized something, I was still pretty young when Playstation came out too. I was only 13 or so when it launched so it reaches back to my childhood also or damn near it.

And as I was playing some PSOne classics today on the PS3 I realized that I have almost as many nostalgic memories of Playsation games as I do Nintendo and I am thinking if sales numbers and current internet attitudes are any indicator I am thinking Nintendo's troubles are far deeper than they can ever hope to fix. I am going to let this be my last post as I need to once again leave this place before I bring up too many of my old bad habits.


For those who were in the dark, I was animecyberrat, oh and segagamer12 in case you didn't knnow that also. I am now of the mind that this place is never going to be welcoming for me.

So long and good riddance I say. Whichever mod has the power to ban please do me the honors of making sure I never return to this cesspool to have to straighten out those hopeless fools who continue to put their faith in a return to glory that will never come, Nintendo is not going to be the next Sega, they are going to be the next Atari and I am now more convinced of that than ever before.


TJ Spyke only wishes he could have caused as much trouble as I have so with that I leave you with these words,



YOU can call me THE RAT thank you very much.





PS Nintendo can go **** themselves.

[Ceric]

I don't really get people like Toddra.

Seriously enough Sony is in a good place Brand Wise.  Now if they can keep it profitable.
Nintendo isn't in a good place Brand Wise but, they know how to keep it profitable.
Microsoft well... In the US the Brand is ok.  Profitability I don't think they'll be able to start there.

[nickmitch]

My prediction is that Activision releases their own box with one game: Guitar Hero.

[Oblivion]

If he still didn't realize that not everyone here sucks at Nintendo's teat, I'm glad he's gone.

[Adrock]

PS4 will probably sell the most units, but One will get most of the same games. From a consumer perspective, it's a wash. You're basically choosing which first party games you like more. Personally, I like PS4's overall unit more though One's controller looks more comfortable. After a strong launch with early adopters lapping up both platforms, sales will slow (though not drag to Wii U levels) because most people realize that all the best games are still coming out on PS3/360.

Wii U will probably end up a close third since Nintendo failed to capitalize on their year head start. Then again, maybe it will come in second since it makes more sense as a second console even one that people only use occasionally. Third party support will improve, but it will never be considered comparatively "good" even to the happiest optimist. In any case, Wii U definitely won't continue to sell as poorly especially with some strong software finally coming out soon. I think there's a possibility that Nintendo releases a new model with a larger SSD or even a regular (non-removeable) hard drive. I'd bet on the former. Nintendo will finally unify the eshop wallet, but I'm not sure they'll do the same with Virtual Console games on Wii U and 3DS. That seems like a Nintendo move. If they do, they'll offer partial eshop credit to people who have the same game on both platforms.

3DS will continue to crush Vita. In fact, it will probably outsell all the others this generation. Sony will release a new model with better battery life. I don't think iOS/Android are really treading on Nintendo's territory here. Nintendo has already ceded some of the casual market, not all. There will always be a place for portable dedicated gaming platforms with physical buttons because there's no way to replace that.

[Pixelated Pixies]

Without wanting to pontificate (I'm actually pretty terrible at making predictions), I might anticipate the following; none of which is particularly revelatory.
 
I expect Playstation 4 to sell more systems than Xbox One over the course of the next two years, with the cheaper price point being of particular importance. I do, however, have more faith in Microsoft to deliver a robust online platform, and I might, therefore, expect that over the course of the next couple of years Microsoft will once again re-establish Xbox as being the premier online console. When all is said and done I expect Playstation to sweep mainland Europe and Japan, while Xbox (with a continued focus on the tastes of it's home market) will find it's foothold in North America and the UK. Playstation's initial success is likely to be driven by those 'core gamers' who feel placated by Sony's cheaper price point, it's stance on second hand games, and it's perceived outreach to prominent indie developers. I expect Xbox One to lose it's position as the lead development platform, but with a sharper focus on providing an all-in-one entertainment hub I expect that this will matter little to Microsoft, and that in fact the Xbox might ultimately be more profitable than it's rival.
 
As development resources are diverted away from PS3 and 360, the Wii U will see a slow, agonising stagnation, but the platform will continue to see high quality releases from Nintendo, who through their own studios and in partnership with over developers will manage to eke out enough software to keep dedicated Nintendo fans from committing hara-kiri.
 
As the generation goes on I would expect console sales in general to tail off as Steam continues to grow in prominence, bolstered by the inclusion of a Steam client in various home devices and the inevitable Valve produced box.
 
 

[shingi_70]

why was toddra banned/left?


PS4>Xbox One>Wii U


or


PS4>Wii U>Xbox One


Its two early to tell anything but the Playstation 4 having a decent lead by next spring. I think Nintendo has the advantage that they don't share the same types of games as the other two and that could propell them to second place in sales once the software starts rolling.

[UncleBob]

why was toddra banned/left?

Can't say for sure, but...

So long and good riddance I say. Whichever mod has the power to ban please do me the honors of making sure I never return to this cesspool to have to straighten out those hopeless fools who continue to put their faith in a return to glory that will never come, Nintendo is not going to be the next Sega, they are going to be the next Atari and I am now more convinced of that than ever before.

...he did specifically asked to be banned.

[NWR_insanolord]

I banned him for circumventing his previous ban. I didn't see that he asked to be banned.

[Ymeegod]

PS4--clear winner.  2/3 of the market will head to PS4 while MS makes a little headway early on but finds itself without the European and Japanese markets and developers.  The WII U will end up another GC, E rated titles will sell but the hardcore titles won't.

Sony would have to do something really st00pid at this point to lose the race IMO.  The vita will continue to bomb in the US and only pick up a bit in Japan.