Topic: Nintendo Stock Down After 3DS Event

[NWR_insanolord]

The company's stock falls by five percent following new game announcements.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/news/27815

Shares of Nintendo stock dropped in value by five percent following Nintendo's 3DS press event yesterday.

Although several new games were announced for the 3DS at the event, including a new installment in the popular Monster Hunter franchise, Japanese investors don't seem convinced that it will be enough for Nintendo to maintain its dominant position in the handheld gaming market, and feel that the significant number of non-gamers that Nintendo was able to attract with the DS are now much likelier to play games on smartphones than on dedicated game systems.

Nintendo's stock price has fallen by almost 50 percent so far this year amid concerns that the 3DS and the upcoming Wii U will be unable to replicate the success of their predecessors.

[TurdFurgy]

So, is now a good time to buy stock in Nintendo?

[broodwars]

OK, heaven knows I've been a very skeptical critic of the 3DS, but at this point even I have to wonder what it's going to take to satisfy the stockholders if they can't even walk out of an all-3DS show (with many new game announcements) without selling their stock.

[hydropie]

hahahahaha! even with these new games, consumers still dont like the general direction of the system. i mean seriously? how could nintendo abandon the arcade gaming values that made the DS and wii so popular in the first place.
I also love how the article takes the liberty of attributing the loss to smartphones and how its killing the console market. seriously, just look at what happened to the NES when computer gaming was in full bloom int the 80s..... oh yeah, i forgot. The NES actually turned out to grow the console market instead of being wiped out by computer gaming.

[Crimm]

OK, heaven knows I've been a very skeptical critic of the 3DS, but at this point even I have to wonder what it's going to take to satisfy the stockholders if they can't even walk out of an all-3DS show (with many new game announcements) without selling their stock.

Profit in hand

[Ceric]

I like to make some dead clear.  People who buy stock or not Consumers who buy Product.  That is how it works out 80% of the time.  They're speculators plain and simple.  They go on the data at hand and there opinion.  Nintendo has always been in a weird place stock wise.  Nintendo doesn't need them.  I hope this is the call that tells them maybe its time to forget about the stockholders and do what needs to be done.  They'll come back then.

[Chozo Ghost]

The stock dropped 5%. That's not a big drop, so whatever.

Frankly, in my opinion its better off if these whiners sell their stock because if these are the same whiners and complainers who keep saying Nintendo should move their games to facebook then they don't deserve to be Nintendo stockholders. Only cool people should be allowed to be Nintendo investors.

[Chozo Ghost]

OK, heaven knows I've been a very skeptical critic of the 3DS, but at this point even I have to wonder what it's going to take to satisfy the stockholders if they can't even walk out of an all-3DS show (with many new game announcements) without selling their stock.

They probably sold their stock because they were hoping Nintendo was going to announce support for iOS and Facebook, and that of course didn't happen.

Like I said, these investors aren't cool enough to own Nintendo stock, so good riddance, IMHO.

[BlackNMild2k1]

You buy on rumor and sell on news. That's how it's worked for a very long time.

Unless that news is so huge that it's gonna change the playing field, then you sell.

I'm not a stock person, but I think this is how it happens all the time:
I hear that Nintendo is gonna announce something big, I buy, the stocks start to go up based on these rumors. As soon as Nintendo announces that it just more games and not the one console that will rule them all, I sell at the peak of the stock price.
the stock price goes down.... maybe I buy back the exact same amount of shares afterwards, but now I have some money left over since the shares were down when I rebought them.

[house3136]

 If the stock value decreased specifically because of the game announcements, or lack thereof; what games would need to be announced to cause the stock price to go up? I watched the stream live and there was no mention of the second circle pad, as far as I could tell. I would assume an announcement like that would show a lack of confidence in the current 3DS generation and that could cause a stock price drop; but that’s hypothetical. 

[Ceric]

There is not a game announcement that will cause Stock to go up but, Numbers on the other hand will.

[ejamer]

So, is now a good time to buy stock in Nintendo?

Nintendo stock has been wildly over-valued for a while due the rampant mainstream success of Wii. Good news if you owned stock and remembered to sell when it was soaring at $60+, not so much if you were silly enough to buy during that crest. Prices now are more realistic and probably not a bad buy... although it's unlikely to spike again in the near-term and much more likely that prices will continue to drop until they can a hit few profitable quarters.  (Totally agree with Crimm's assesment of "Profit in hand" as the way to see things change.)

Is it a good time to buy? My extremely limited stock knowledge says you're better off waiting - especially if you are looking for short-term profit.

[Chocobo_Rider]

"Nintendo announces transformation to 3rd party developer."

*stock rises 15%*

"Nintendo announces it will only produce $.99 mobile games."

*stock rises 20%*

"Nintendo bankrupt after idiotic business moves"

*stockholders commit mass suicide*

[TrueNerd]

But that Pink 3DS is gonna bring in all the female consumers. WOMEN CAN'T SAY NO TO PINK!

[NWR_insanolord]

hahahahaha! even with these new games, consumers still dont like the general direction of the system. i mean seriously? how could nintendo abandon the arcade gaming values that made the DS and wii so popular in the first place.
I also love how the article takes the liberty of attributing the loss to smartphones and how its killing the console market. seriously, just look at what happened to the NES when computer gaming was in full bloom int the 80s..... oh yeah, i forgot. The NES actually turned out to grow the console market instead of being wiped out by computer gaming.

I didn't take any liberties; that was all paraphrased from a quote by a high-ranking official in a Japanese investment firm that's in the article linked as the source for this. It's pretty clear that that's why people are bailing on Nintendo stock; whether it's an accurate assessment of market conditions is another matter.

[KDR_11k]

I guess shattering the hopes that the 3DS's admission of failure (AKA the boat AKA the second circle pad) was only for one game did that.

[NWR_pap64]

While in the past I have criticized the 3DS and the strategies Nintendo used to promote and sell the system, I am convinced that analysts and investors are bullying Nintendo into doing what THEY want to do. Seriously, it is always "Facebook this, iOS that, mobile is the future!". And the funny thing is that Sony, so far, isn't getting any of that with the Vita. Maybe it is because the system has some mobile handheld-like features, and thus THEY believe it will be successful since it will be more like a mobile device rather than a dedicated gaming system.

[Ceric]

While in the past I have criticized the 3DS and the strategies Nintendo used to promote and sell the system, I am convinced that analysts and investors are bullying Nintendo into doing what THEY want to do. Seriously, it is always "Facebook this, iOS that, mobile is the future!". And the funny thing is that Sony, so far, isn't getting any of that with the Vita. Maybe it is because the system has some mobile handheld-like features, and thus THEY believe it will be successful since it will be more like a mobile device rather than a dedicated gaming system.

Also Sony does many different things when your investing in them.

[KDR_11k]

It's more like investors think Nintendo games are shallow and stupid and need to be on the mobile platforms while they believe that HD graphics are a sign of depth that cannot be reached on a mobile system.

[NWR_insanolord]

Nintendo's former status as the most valuable company in Japan was based on its total dominance of both the handheld and console markets. The handheld market has changed. Whether you like it or not, smartphones and tablets are having an effect on the ability to sell dedicated game machines to certain audiences. No one in their right mind thinks Nintendo has any shot of lifetime sales of the 3DS being in the same ballpark as those of the DS. That's why the stock is dropping.

[Ian Sane]

I think smartphones own the casual market.  This is a market that doesn't really give a **** about quality, they just want a mindless distraction to eat up free time.  So if their cellphone, something they want to own anyway, can provide that why would they get a seperate dedicated videogame system?  There no longer is a market for a dedicated handheld that plays casual games.  Cellphone hardware has caught up.  No, it is no good for "real" games but that's not the market we're talking about.  Brain Age and Nintendogs could be done on a smartphone easily.  It's only the more hardcore stuff like Mario and Zelda that couldn't.

Nintendo was just on a big wave of casual gamer success.  The DS and Wii owned the casual market.  Odds are a lot of investors came on board because of that.  If Nintendo sticks entirely to dedicated videogame systems then they are essentially abandoning the casual market.  If you see Nintendo as a videogame company, that doesn't really matter.  But if you see them as a casual gaming company then what they're doing with the 3DS is illogical.  Why the hell aren't they making smartphone games?  Why are they sticking with this dedicated handheld videogame system the casual market doesn't want?  If that's how you see Nintendo, then what Nintendo is doing makes no sense so you sell your stock.

I don't think Nintendo should go after the smartphone market but I don't think they'll keep the casuals if they don't.  They can stick with dedicated videogame systems but they have to realize that that means their market is more dedicated gamers (think pre-Wii videogame marketplace) and they have to adjust accordingly.

[leahsdad]

This is a market that doesn't really give a **** about quality, they just want a mindless distraction to eat up free time.

Ian Sane, that way of describing the casual gaming market is arrogant, insulting, combative...and 100% correct.  Maybe I wouldn't have used such strong words, but I feel like something which not enough people are saying is that for the casual gamer, things like game quality, depth of experience, even game branding, are really unimportant. 


The thing is, I don't know if there is any way for Nintendo to compete with mobile phone games, because no matter how innovative or how much better or how much more accessible Nintendo makes their games, they're still facing a 99 cent, 800 pound gorilla in the room.  That doesn't mean Nintendo's going to go bankrupt.  Far from it.  There's still a lot of markets Nintendo still rules.  I think kids are still going to be good for Nintendo.   Teens.  Us.  But casual gamers, if such a group even still exists in 5 years, well, they're gone.

[arro]

After the 2nd Slide Pad Announcement, I could see why...

[Chozo Ghost]

No one in their right mind thinks Nintendo has any shot of lifetime sales of the 3DS being in the same ballpark as those of the DS.

I think it has a shot of that happening, but only if it has the same life span. If the 4DS comes out too soon then no, the 3DS won't be able to catch up to the DS. But its too early to call at this point in time. But please keep in mind the DS had a slow start too. It came out in November 2004 but didn't really do anything until Nintendogs came out in the summer of 2005 so that's about the same timeframe as what we are seeing with the 3DS as well.

[marty]

OK, heaven knows I've been a very skeptical critic of the 3DS, but at this point even I have to wonder what it's going to take to satisfy the stockholders if they can't even walk out of an all-3DS show (with many new game announcements) without selling their stock.

All Nintendo has to do is show that they are making games that will make them NEW customers.