Topic: Episode 24: Enjoy Your Podcast

[NWR_DrewMG]

The Cricket Duo becomes a Newscast Foursome once again.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/newscast/23897

A return to normalcy was the order this week, as Andy and Neal return to keep Zach and Nathan from reading from the pages of Wikipedia.  

No one is reviewing much of anything this week, so instead the Whatcha Reviewin' Segment is scrapped for some listener feedback, as well as the usual news and releases segment.

Finally, Andy regales us with tales of his broken Wii system to close out the show.

Email the NWR Newscast crew at newscast@nintendoworldreport.com

Follow the Newscast on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/NWRNewscast!

[KDR_11k]

Blood Bowl is pretty much turn based (fantasy) football if you're looking for a videogame.

[ejamer]

Good show guys!
 
 
Interesting to hear Pizza Box Football mentioned in the podcast.  I also rather enjoy the game, though it takes a bit longer to play than I would like.
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/17851/pizza-box-football
 
Although that's probably the best option, there are many other football board games available:
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/geeksearch.php?action=search&objecttype=boardgame&q=football

[Kytim89]

When Neal quoted me on the podcast about the wii 2 being released/revealed in 2011, this reminded me of my points for the wii 2 coming in 2011. 
 
Reason # 1: The cost of the PS3 and 360 are creeping ever closer to the price of the wii. What are the prices? I would figure that the both the PS3 and 360 consoles run for $300 each and the wii sells for $200. What if a year from now the wii 2 has not been revealed and the PS360 is now retailing for $200? Nintendo would have to drop the price of the wii to $150, maybe? It is in Nintendo's best interest to keep their system cheaper that its competitor's systems because they can always claim that the wii system is more economical.
 
Reason # 2: If the wii is retailing for $150, what is the profitability for Nintendo? Why wait for a profit on a five year old system that is slowly going to give you returns in the coming years when you can release a newer console for $300 and get all your adoring fans to buy the system again and rake in even more profit. The only problem with is the ultimate fate of Move and Kinect. If they both fail and the PS360 prices drop and Nintendo releases a newer wii system for $300, they are then in the reverse position that they entered this generation. Sony and Microsoft have the advanced system with motion controls and Nintendo had a costly system with advanced motion controls.
 
Reason # 3: Let's assume for a moment that Move and Kinect are a succes. These systems have to be more advanced than the wii. Nintendo would look kind of dumb trying to pass along an out dated system against a more advanced one, but they have been doing this for decades and have been successful because of it. Case and point, the wii motion controls are the GBA and Move/kinect are the PSP. Nintendo would have to release a much more advanced system of motion controls to compete with move and kinect in the same way they released the DS to compete with the PSP in the GBA's stead. They also would not allow a competitor to out show them on a gimmick that they themselves implemented.
 
Reason #4: Despite everything, Nintendo is in the best position to release a new console. Such positions include finances, reputation, market penetration, development costs and in some sense credibility. Both Microsoft and Sony are lacking in some or all of these positions. Right now Sony is in the worst position to release a newer console(PS4) and since Sony has a footing in Japan, Nintendo's home territory, too, it is in Nintendo's best interest to keep them off balance in all markets. This is especially true since the move is similar to the wii mote. Microsoft could release a newer system, but their position has been harmed due to the RROD and they will spend the next five years rebuilding their position. Nintendo's position is so prestine at the moment that they could release the wii 2 in 2011 and sell atleast ten million units in the first month.
 
Reason # 4: The cost of developing High definition games is getting cheaper?

[greybrick]

@ Kytim89 I think at the most we will see an announcement of the second Wii next year.

Reason 1: "PS360 is now retailing for $200?" Sony can't even get their newest PSP down to $200

Reason 2: "If the wii is retailing for $150, what is the profitability for Nintendo?" If Nintendo is selling the Wii for $150, they are making a profit. Nintendo has no need to lose money on a console. Also, this price point is based on your assumption of an unrealistic price drop for the Sony console in the coming year.

Reason 3: "Let's assume for a moment that Move and Kinect are a succes." Why?

"Case and point, the wii motion controls are the GBA and Move/kinect are the PSP." When did a market exist where the GBA was Nintendo's only portable competition against the PSP?

"Nintendo would look kind of dumb trying to pass along an out dated system against a more advanced one, but they have been doing this for decades and have been successful because of it."
So Nintendo will look dumb selling the Wii, and yet still be successful?

Reason 4: "Nintendo's position is so prestine at the moment that they could release the wii 2 in 2011 and sell atleast ten million units in the first month."
I don't think they want consumers choosing between the 3ds and Wii 2 launch in the same year, and those numbers seem a bit much considering it took the Wii two years to reach those numbers in the US.

Reason 4(b): " The cost of developing High definition games is getting cheaper?" Making games in high definition costs little more than making games at a lower resolution. We just have to wonder if Nintendo will spend the high amounts of money generating art and effects for a higher definition game.
                   

[KDR_11k]

If your channels are corrupt it might be worth a try to homebrew-hack the Wii and use WiiSCU to redownload the channels manually. Of course Nintendo will tack on an arbitrary fee for repairing the system if that doesn't work out so it'd be a gamble.

[Kytim89]

@ Greybrick
 
Yes, Sony's PSP systems are a very over priced. The PSP Go is not worth $250 dollars. At the most it is worth $120, if not cheaper. Also, the market will drive the price of the PS360 down. For example, Sony just announced a 320 GB version of the PS3 slim. The normal 120 GB PS3 will eventually fall in price and the cycle will start over again for the 320 GB when a 500 GB model is revealed. Although my price drop for the PS3 was quite generous, any kind of major price drop in 2011 is very "realistic."
 
The whole point of the PS360 price dropping to the $250 or even the $200 can will happen eventually. This is dangerous for Nintendo because if the wii was $250, that would put it in almost direct competition with its competitors. For example, why pay $200 or even $250 for an a console with SD graphics and motion controls when I can pay fifty dollars more and have better grapghics and motion controls.
 
Unless you hve been living under a rock for the last five years you should know that one reason why the wii was so successful was that pointed out to the consumer that why should they pay nearly a $1000 in total for two HD consoles and their games and accessories that are just better looking versions of last generation consoles.
 
Nintendo could still make a profit on a console retailing for $150, but why make some money on the wii when you can make even more money by releasing a $300 and your fans will buy it up in mass droves and you are making even more money.
 
Why does the success or failure of move and kinect matter to Nintendo? If they are successful then Nintendo has an aged control scheme on their hands compare to a fresher control scheme for the HD consoles. Secondly, if they are successful then it will force Nintendo's hand and they will have to release a new console soon. If it fails, Nintendo will release the wii 2 on their own schedule and take their time with it.
 
When Sony revealed that they were going to enter the handheld market, Nintendo realized that the GBA alone could not compete against the PSP on a level playing field. So, Nintendo came up with the DS and hoped that it would capture the hearts of the conumer and it did. What I was that there are times when Nintendo will have to release a more powerful version to compete more flexibly with its competitors. Had the GBA been left alone to face the PSP, chances are that Nintendo might have lost its place as ruler of the hand held market.
 
GBA= Wii motion controls
DS= Wii 2 motion controls
PSP= Move and kinect motion controls
 
Think about it, Greybrick.
 
As for the wii 2 selling ten million units in the first month, a generous figure on my part, but none the less improbable. I could easily imagine the wii 2 being the next hot product for 2011 or 2012 holiday season. I could also imagine a line three miles long outside all major retail stores trying to get this system. I could also imagine people trading in their PS3 and 360 to pre order this system. Let me put it this way, I will camp out three months early at Wal-mart to get this machine.
 
 

[greybrick]

Unless you hve been living under a rock for the last five years you should know that one reason why the wii was so successful was that pointed out to the consumer that why should they pay nearly a $1000 in total for two HD consoles

Why is the consumer's only option buying both an Xbox and Playstation or just a Wii? Also, if you will recall, people paid much more than the Wii's MSRP for years.

The 360 has been available at a $200 price point for quite some time now, and has been consistently outsold by the Wii.

HD consoles and their games and accessories that are just better looking versions of last generation consoles.

Isn't this exactly what Move is, and approximately what Kinect is in the eye of the consumer?
Both Kinect and Move will set you back around $150, bringing the cost up higher than the Wii anyways.

"GBA= Wii motion controls
DS= Wii 2 motion controls
PSP= Move and kinect motion controls
 
Think about it, Greybrick."

The timelines are too shifted to make this a meaningful comparison.

"a generous figure on my part, but none the less improbable"

Did you mean probable? I can't think of another way to have that sentence make sense.

"I will camp out three months early at Wal-mart to get this machine."

Wow that is hardc0re.

[Kytim89]

I meant probable. That was a typo on my part.


The GBA represents the wii and the motion controls. A very simple form of game play.

The PSP represents move/kinect in that is a more professional and technological advanced system that really did not pay off in the long run because of expenses.

IF the GBA had stood alone against the PSP, it would have been squashed like a mosquito. Nintendo had to release the DS to compete evenly with the PSP.

This where I get that the DS represents the wii 2 motion controls. The DS was a some what significantly more powerful version of the GBA and had extra bells and whistles in regards to the touch screen.

I see history repeating itself with motion controls much in the same way the handheld market grew in the early 2000s.

Yes, Microsoft has been selling the Xbox 360 arcade for $200 for a while now, but for how long? Microsoft wants you to pay bigs bucks for their bigger models of the 360. That is how they do buisness.

I have heared of the wii selling for as high as $1000 on ebay and I have seen it for $300 to $500 on there myself.  The reason for this is that Nintendo systems are very popular and many people know that anyone will pay top dollar to have their latest system.

[KDR_11k]

Nintendo doesn't care that the 360 is outselling the Wii currently. Worrying about the dickwaving competition called the console war is a quick way to losing money and audience. As they say, they're competing against disinterest. They aren't worried about weak competitors like MS, they worry about larger ones like TV. They worry about all the reasons people have to not buy (console) videogames. When Nintendo was still concerned with the console wars it was losing ground every generation. MS and Sony are niche companies in the games market compared to Nintendo and I don't think MS has a realistic chance at being more than a crappy also-ran in the expanded market (Kinect may be high tech but it doesn't have the great game developers of Nintendo working on it, by the looks of it the devs that are working on it can't do much that Nintendo didn't already do years ago).

Also I don't think a fitness system made by Nintendo will ever happen. Nintendo is a gaming company and their goal with the fitness stuff is not simply to get people to buy something branded Nintendo, it's just a means to invite more people into gaming as a whole. If those people just buy the Nintendo stuff as another fitness device and aren't converted to gaming it's a failure. This is not about profiting off a single product, it's about building a larger customerbase to draw profits from in the future.

[greybrick]

@kytim
I understand your analogy, I just think that it doesn't apply very well.
The GBA was doing well enough, and Nintendo released the DS around the same time as the PSP. Where the analogy goes sour for me is that the PSP wasn't aping the GBA, it was trying to be something much more.

really did not pay off in the long run

GBA had stood alone against the PSP, it would have been squashed like a mosquito

These two quotes directly oppose each other.

[Kytim89]

@kytim
I understand your analogy, I just think that it doesn't apply very well.
The GBA was doing well enough, and Nintendo released the DS around the same time as the PSP. Where the analogy goes sour for me is that the PSP wasn't aping the GBA, it was trying to be something much more.

really did not pay off in the long run

GBA had stood alone against the PSP, it would have been squashed like a mosquito

These two quotes directly oppose each other.

 
What would the handheld market have been like if the DS had never emerged and the GBA was alone to compete against the PSP? Chances are that the PSP would have dominated the market. However, the DS did keep the PSP down in the last five years though.
 
As for the PSP not paying off in the long run, it is true that the PSP is not the success story that Sony wanted it be. I remember back in 2005 sitting with my DS thinking about how the DS was going to beat the PSP since the PSP was basically a handheld PS2. The PSP Go did not get a warm welcome and people have been complaining since day one that the PSP is not good simply because it has only one analog nub.
 
 
This is my analogy and I am sticking to it. History is repeating itself with motion controls the same the GBA-PSP-DS went down in the early 2000s.
 
Basically Nintendo has motion controlled games in their pocket. Sony and Microsoft and will release their own motion controls with move and natal and eventually Nintendo will reveal the Wii 2 that has motion controls that put both move and natal in their place.


The bottom line is that move and kinect will not put up much of a threat to the wii or the wii 2. If this were 2006 then I would be very worried, but Nintendo knows what they are doing in regards to motion controls.

[greybrick]

If you are saying that,

if the DS had never emerged and the GBA was alone to compete against the PSP, (...) the PSP would have dominated the market

and that

The GBA represents the wii and the motion controls

then how do you conclude that,

move and kinect will not put up much of a threat to the wii

?

I can't do this anymore, now excuse me while I step outside and run in circles.  :

[Kytim89]

I won, Greybrick.   
 

[greybrick]

You do see how your whole analogy contradicts itself, right?

And that me giving up and running in circles was a reference to cyclical logic

[Kytim89]

You do see how your whole analogy contradicts itself, right?

And that me giving up and running in circles was a reference to cyclical logic

Looking back I realized that the PSP was never really a threat to the DS. Just like the move and kinect will not be a threat to the wii 2.
 
Perhaps my analogy is not as much contradictory as much as I am having trouble explaining it clearly.
 
 

[greybrick]

Okay I am going to promise myself that this will be my last post on this matter.

The breakdown of what you have said is GBA=Wii, DS= Wii2, PSP= Move/Kinect, Wii>Move/Kinect therefore GBA> PSP.
You have also separately said DS> PSP, Wii2> Move/Kinect.

Just to sort things out, you said that,

if the DS had never emerged and the GBA was alone to compete against the PSP, (...) the PSP would have dominated the market

Then you said that,

The GBA represents the wii and the motion controls

and you finally reason that,

move and kinect will not put up much of a threat to the wii

It is hard to believe that you are,

having trouble explaining it clearly

when you say that

the bottom line is that move and kinect will not put up much of a threat to the wii or the wii 2

and then say

move and kinect will not be a threat to the wii 2

It seems clear that you think nothing is a threat to Nintendo's platforms, which makes your assertion that a new Wii will emerge to stop Nintendo from losing to tech that you have already determined it would win against highly unlikely. Strictly by your own logic. 

[NWR_Neal]

I was lost when the Game Boy Advance was supposed to be comparable to the Wii. I don't get how there is any stretch of logic where a conservative follow-up to (at the time) the most successful handheld device ever is at all similar to the gamble that was the launch of the Wii.

[Kytim89]

I was lost when the Game Boy Advance was supposed to be comparable to the Wii. I don't get how there is any stretch of logic where a conservative follow-up to (at the time) the most successful handheld device ever is at all similar to the gamble that was the launch of the Wii.

I got a little over my head with this argument but I knwo what I want to say but I am having trouble explaining it clearly.

[greybrick]

I got a little over my head with this argument but I knwo what I want to say but I am having trouble explaining it clearly.

Clearly.

Just kidding, Kytim 

[Kytim89]

I do have a strong feeling that 2011 will not close without some kind of reveal of the wii 2.

[NWR_Neal]

I'm inclined to agree.

[greybrick]

Of course, I just don't think they want to cram the year with two new skus actually launching.

[Kytim89]

Neal mentioned that his wii malfunctioned and this reminded me that my wii is strangely warmer than usual after playing games. It might be nothing, but it gor  really hot on top.
 
 

[greybrick]

Neal mentioned that his wii malfunctioned and this reminded me that my wii is strangely warmer than usual after playing games. It might be nothing, but it gor  really hot on top.

Do you mind me asking how you noticed this?