Topic: Wii Successor and Glassess Free 3D: How Will It Work?

[MaryJane]

Nintendo is not done with the Wii, and neither are the 3rd parties.

The Wii has seen much better support than the the GC and that was more powerful than the PS2. The Wii has gotten a lot of multiplatform releases despite being underpowered because of its user base. The only reason the Wii doesn't get certain games (GTA IV) is because developers don't believe their games are viable on the system, that M rated games don't sell on Wii, and if you release within a month or two of a 1st party game your sales will be ****.

The best way Nintendo can help 3rd parties is to have their own releases spaced out enough to give other games a chance. Having a more powerful console solves none of the problems I just mentioned, Nintendo needs to prove they can sell a wide variety of games on their systems before they can expect better 3rd party support.

That's why their portables have always had a ton of support regardless of how their console was doing; lots of different people bought it, and bought lots of different games. That has not been true of the Wii, so why would it suddenly be true of the Wii2 unless Nintendo discovers the way to attract more people to its console?

Releasing a system just as powerful or marginally more powerful than what's out there is not the way to go about that.

Why would a current PS3/360 owner buy a Wii2 if it's just as powerful and uses dual motion sensing like the Move, when they already have those capabilities? Just for Nintendo's 1st party games? That leads right back into the problem of 3rd party games not selling on Nintendo's console.

 Just like they did with the Wii, Nintendo needs to offer something completely different to gamers to get them interested in the Wii2. Yes it needs more power, yes it should be more powerful than the PS3, but it should not come out until holiday 2012 or 2013 when people are feeling that their PS3's and 360's are feeling out of date. Nintendo does need to be first on the block, but not so early that no one has woken up yet for them to sell to.

[BlackNMild2k1]

can I just set this down here for a minute....

Gamasutra released their NPD October report
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/6210/npd_behind_the_numbers_october_.php

and I found one part of it very interesting(I only skimmed the pics ), especially since we've been debating on whether the Wii is in need of a replacement like the DS

vs

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Both Sony and MS are having the best hardware years ever so far and Nintendo needs to have a record setting Nov. and a trick play in Dec. just to keep them from being significantly down YoY. Normally YoY wouldn't be that big of a deal, but the competition is seeing a YoY increase in sales and in the case of the 360 have even outsold the Wii YTD. Now holiday sales could swing YTD back in Nintendo's favor, but it's still a downward trend that is only more likely to get worse next year.

and for those that say the DS was still selling good. It is from a hardware perspective, but software was looking pretty bad. Not pathetic like PSP selling on a PS2 level bad, but way down from it's peak of several years ago.


Assuming Wii doesn't have the most spectacular Holiday sales ever, then we know it's already sliding down from it's peak and Nintendo will need to do something major to slow this downward trend if they want to keep the Wii around till Xmas 2012 or longer and not see software revenue continue to swirl down the drain (Nintendo lost just as much software revenue as MS & Sony gained).

So regardless of what Nintendo has planned for the Wii, everyone else that is paying attention sees the writing on the wall. Nintendo was hoping to catch the attention of the casual base with something like WiiParty, but even if it ends up being a success a year from now, Nintendo needs something that is gonna make a big impact now. Most 3rd parties are not gonna invest heavily in Wii moving forward when they can see that overall Wii software revenue is down and half of that is from Nintendo's own software. 3rd parties that are currently working on something for the Wii have likely had all their projections cut way back and their budgets have likely followed (just like many of the big 3rd party Wii games that we were anticipating that already came out.). Now unless some 3rd party gets a major incentive from Nintendo (like the Team Ninja on M:OM) I seriously doubt they are even planning a Wii version of whatever they making and would much rather put it on the all but guaranteed juggernaut 3DS.


I'm pretty sure the release of the 3DS, with it's games that look better than Wii and online that is likely better than Wii and it's sales and popularity that will likely drown out the Wii will be the new focus of the core and casual crowds and distract us from the quiet wind down of the Wii while Nintendo prepares it's replacement. No amount of price drops is gonna save a platform with no compelling new games. Nintendo couldn't sell a $99 GC vs an inferior $199 PS2 because of the game selection. So price drops are not gonna solve anything other than getting those extremely price conscience shoppers to finally buy in and pick up those 2 or 3 games they've been wanting to play.

[MaryJane]

I see your point, I'm just saying it's still too early to call.

Let's see what happens at TGS and E3 because as of now good multiplatform (COD) and good exclusives (Goldeneye, Epic Mickey, Just Dance(?)) are being made for the system. That will be their holiday push games, price, family fun at only $250 with 2 games packed in. Their still banking on software and price, the Nintendo way. 3rd party support may not be robust but unlike the GC it does exist.

We don't really know what Nintendo has planned for the Wii. Unlike usual Nintendo they've swamped us (for them anyway) with info about the 3DS. Yes they originally wanted a holiday release but they probably knew internally and didn't want to scare investors. And we know the 3DS is going to be a success, hopefully the Wii can piggyback that success. Kingdom Hearts 3D is going to lead into Kingdom Hearts 3, and the Wii gets none of that? This is not the GC, even if sales are slowing, they are still good, and don't forget the 360 has a year on it, and the Kinect looks pretty cool, and the PS3 has more power and 'hardcore' games, it has disadvantages and is keeping up.

Let's see if Nintendo can boost sales like they say are trying to do. They're still in the game, and they still have things to show us. If after TGS and E3 their is nothing new for Wii and it's all about the 3DS then obviously expect Wii2, but there are good 3rd party games for the Wii that have recently come out/been announced. I'm asking what's the need for the panic? The sales and games are there right now, why doesn't the bode well for the future? Especially for games, the Wii isn't at PS2 levels yet...

[NWR_insanolord]

The others are doing better than Nintendo this year, but that's not important. Market share is an overrated statistic. What matters is Nintendo's still making boatloads of money on the Wii, and it will continue to be quite profitable until late 2012 if they need it to be. Remember, Nintendo was the most profitable company last generation despite being in last place. Lower market share isn't enough to get Nintendo to release a new console, or at least it never has been in the past. Nintendo moves on to new hardware when they have to because of competition or lack of sales to the degree they saw at the end of the N64 and GameCube's lives.

[BlackNMild2k1]

But this shows that Wii has passed it's peak and Xbox360 & PS3 have not.
And for the fact that both MS & Sony have been talking about an extended generation where their machines could last for another 3-4 years, there is no way that Nintendo would want to ride that out and continue to not only lost marketshare, but profit share, consumer mindshare and content share to the competition. and Nintendo's profits are waaaay down this year. They have even posted a loss for the year so far and if these kind of sales continue throughout next year (which is unlikely thanks to the 3DS), then Nintendo will hopefully do what needs to be done(and what the shareholders will probably want).

Besides, there is a very good strategic advantage to Nintendo launching 3 years before MS & Sony are ready to. It could make them force their hands and rush hardware to market as to not give too big a lead and marketshare should the W2 catch fire. It could also force them to write off a huge loss this generation without ever having the time to recoup cost from over subsidized hardware and additional add-on launches. It could also kill the competition ability to get a real foot hold in the motion control game by one upping their one up attempt.... Nintendo did invent the 1-up after all

But seriously, if Xmas doesn't save the day, then I'm sure a Wii2 in FY2011 is most definitely on the table. The Wii looks like it was designed to last no longer than the usual 5 years, so I'm sure that Wii2 had already been scheduled for a planned Xmas 2011 launch anyway.

[Luigi Dude]

The others are doing better than Nintendo this year, but that's not important. Market share is an overrated statistic. What matters is Nintendo's still making boatloads of money on the Wii, and it will continue to be quite profitable until late 2012 if they need it to be. Remember, Nintendo was the most profitable company last generation despite being in last place. Lower market share isn't enough to get Nintendo to release a new console, or at least it never has been in the past. Nintendo moves on to new hardware when they have to because of competition or lack of sales to the degree they saw at the end of the N64 and GameCube's lives.

Yep, this is the reason why even though the sales are down this year, Nintendo hasn't given the Wii another price drop.  People have to remember that the Gamecube and N64 were both $100 at this point in their lifespans.  If Nintendo was truly worried about Wii sales at the moment, they would have cut the price to at least $150 by now.  The fact that they haven't shows that they still feel the system is doing well enough for them at it's current price point.

[Spak-Spang]

Black and Mild makes some serious points...I can totally, see Nintendo releasing the Wii 2.0 now in November of next year...It also means that if Microsoft and Sony want to have an extended life cycle, they could do 2-3 more years...with Nintendo being the superior system  (not by much) but yeah, still superior. 

[MaryJane]

The Wii passed its peak a long time ago, as did the PS3 and 360. The only difference being that the latter two have released new peripherals that are bolstering sales. For the Move, it seems (just from what I've seen) is appealing to current PS3/PS2 owners who have bought the hype that Sony's waggle is better than Nintendo's. The Kinect on the other hand is appealing to not only casuals and 'hardcore' gamers, but hackers as well who are making good use of the open-source drivers to the point where they've impressed MS enough that their no longer saying they don't want people to modify their hardware (Engadget has an article about this, but I can't copy/paste url's on my phone for some reason). So right now, Nintendo's focus is on competing with those peripherals, not the main systems, because they are still getting multiplatform games and good exclusives. All the issues that have been listed as reasons to launch Wii2 Nintendo sees (taking Iwata and Reggie at their word) as reasons to recommit to the Wii and push the hardware further. What if Skyward Swords is better than OoT? What is WiiMusic2 starts a new segment of music games? Nintendo still has tricks up its sleeve for the Wii, and I think they're going to banl on more than just the 2011 holiday. One bad year when you've never before had a bad year, and that bad year comes in the middle of a global recession is no need to panic. One of the reasons Nintendo posted a loss is because of the Yen becoming stronger, making their international sales worth less than normal. This is not Nintendo's fault, and really the only thing they can do about it, is wait it out.

I still say there isn't enough incentive in releasing a new, more powerful, and expensive console. What reasons do consumers (namely casuals) have to upgrade, and developers to make new and more expensive games?

[Stratos]

I still say there isn't enough incentive in releasing a new, more powerful, and expensive console. What reasons do consumers (namely casuals) have to upgrade, and developers to make new and more expensive games?

Because if they don't the casuals will just upgrade to one of the motion compatible HD systems to get better graphics and DVD/Blue-Ray playback.

[Ian Sane]

The numbers don't lie.  It isn't like the Wii is having one bad year.  Last year was worse than the year before and this year is on pace to do even worse than that.  With two years of data that starts to show a trend and suggests that the Wii has peaked.  And that isn't even abnormal.  Within the typical five-year life cycle of a console peaking in year three would make sense.

At the same time it isn't like one good year from Sony or MS due to their motion control attachments.  They have gone up every year.  That's not a fluke, that's a trend.

And this all fits the plans.  Sony and MS built systems that were probably too big of a leap, which would be able to last for longer than the typical five year cycle.  The PS3 in particular only become affordable last year.  It will be a while until those systems appear dated.  Where could they go anyway without charging $600 again for the next gen?  They were consoles built to last and they are doing exactly that.  Meanwhile the Wii, from a hardware perspective, was out-of-date the day it was released.  If it wasn't planned to be a typical five year cycle then Nintendo are delusional idiots.  Just the HD thing alone suggests that this was not going to be a long haul system.  Plus they ended up having to improve the controller with Motion+.  If Nintendo truly thought this could go for 8 years or whatever why would they intentionally gimp their controller, which is the whole reason the Wii even exists, and have to go with that as the standard for so long.  Motion+ is not treated as the new standard, they treat it as an optional peripheral.  There is a clear need for improvement with the Wii in that the graphics are going to be topped by a portable, the system doesn't support modern TV connections and the controller itself is in need of standardization.  The whole thing just screams "five years".  It was never built to last.  Even if Nintendo intended for it to last they failed to build it that way.

[Spak-Spang]

True.  But, you know what...Nintendo needed to be careful.  The Wii was very smart.  It was a HUGE gamble...Nintendo couldn't have gambled with a new control system and made it too expensive to get the new audience. 

However, now Nintendo could release a much more powerful system that uses its tested new control mechanics to push a more powerful system...and they can potentially do this with 2 or 3 years without another console competing.  And if Sony and Microsoft do release a new system sooner than later, they are cutting into their years of profitability with their systems...specially Sony. 

If Nintendo was smart and able to get something out sooner than later...2011 or early 2012 would be a huge boom for Nintendo with 2 huge money making releases and new momentum into the coming years.

[Kytim89]

One thing about the last console generation was that games made on either the Xbox, PS2 or Gamecube were farely similar enough that games for each console were interchangable. Of course there were technical issues between the consoles, but there was enough similarity that third parties could easily develop non-exclusives for each system.
 
Fastforward to this generation and the the idea stated baove is not the case no longer. Games are interchangable between the PS360, but the Wii can not get games from its competitors as easily as the Gamecube did in its day. However, my point is that the Wii 2 will return to the idea of third party interchangability by easily handling PS360 games.

[ThePerm]

the more important chart

[Kytim89]

That chart seems indicative to the idea that the 3DS could threaten the Wii 2.
 
It was late at night and I noticed that the DS sold more units per million than the Wii. So I assumed that the 3DS could be a threat to the Wii 2 based on those sales. I did not factor in price difference between the two consoles.

[Ian Sane]

When determining whether or not to release a new console momentum and sales trends are more important.  If total factored into the decision then the PS2 is currently the most relevant and successful console.

[Adrock]

That chart seems indicative to the idea that the 3DS could threaten the Wii 2.

No, it really doesn't. In fact, it indicates the opposite. Nintendo has dominated hardware sales this entire generation thus far in two separate markets. Wii and DS coexisted and made Nintendo multiple Scrooge McDuck towers full of gold coins. I don't see how one was a threat to the other or how their successors could threaten each other.

[BlackNMild2k1]

That chart seems indicative to the idea that the 3DS could threaten the Wii 2.

No, it really doesn't. In fact, it indicates the opposite. Nintendo has dominated hardware sales this entire generation thus far in two separate markets. Wii and DS coexisted and made Nintendo multiple Scrooge McDuck towers full of gold coins. I don't see how one was a threat to the other or how their successors could threaten each other.

No, you're wrong!! If it wasn't for Nintendo's best selling handheld ever being on the market at the same time as Nintendo's best selling console ever then Nintendo's best selling console ever would have been even... ummm.... wait, what was I trying to say again?

That chart seems indicative to the idea that the 3DS could threaten the Wii 2.

Oh yeah. how is that? please explain.

[broodwars]

That chart seems indicative to the idea that the 3DS could threaten the Wii 2.

No, it really doesn't. In fact, it indicates the opposite. Nintendo has dominated hardware sales this entire generation thus far in two separate markets. Wii and DS coexisted and made Nintendo multiple Scrooge McDuck towers full of gold coins. I don't see how one was a threat to the other or how their successors could threaten each other.

The only place where I could see that being the case is in Japan, which is increasingly obsessed with handhelds.  I can definitely see the 3DS "stealing" possible Wii 2 sales in Japan given the weekly sales lists we see out of that country showing PSP and DS games up there instead of console games.  I do not see that as a possibility anywhere else.

[Mop it up]

If anything, Nintendo could use the 3DS to sell the next home system if they create some sort of connectivity, or maybe even help extend the Wii if they could someone connect with it.

[Ian Sane]

The only place where I could see that being the case is in Japan, which is increasingly obsessed with handhelds.  I can definitely see the 3DS "stealing" possible Wii 2 sales in Japan given the weekly sales lists we see out of that country showing PSP and DS games up there instead of console games.  I do not see that as a possibility anywhere else.

I see it more like Japan just doesn't like consoles anymore and considers handhelds to be their medium of choice for videogames.  So it isn't so much the 3DS stealing sales from the Wii 2 because I think that those "lost" Wii 2 sales would never have occured in the first place.  If Nintendo didn't have a portable everyone in Japan would probably just buy a PSP instead.
 
I think the 3DS is more of a threat to the Wii in that it will make the Wii look weak and out-of-date because it, as a portable, will have better graphics than its sister console.  Throughout videogame history that has never happened.  Nintendo never had to worry about the GBA or DS looking more high tech than the N64 and Gamecube.
 
Unless Nintendo is following the trend in Japan and wants their portable to be the "main" system in which case it looking superior to the Wii is not such a big deal.  The plan might be to make the 3DS the default videogame system and the Wii 1 or 2 is more for specific types of games that cannot be done on a handheld (ie: motion control).  I think that would be complete suicide in North America but Nintendo tends to make worldwide decisions based on what's going on in Japan.  It's a very extreme idea and I don't expect them to do it, but if they did I would not be surprised.

[Kytim89]

That chart seems indicative to the idea that the 3DS could threaten the Wii 2.
 
It was late at night and I noticed that the DS sold more units per million than the Wii. So I assumed that the 3DS could be a threat to the Wii 2 based on those sales. I did not factor in price difference between the two consoles.

It was late at night and I noticed that the DS sold more units per million than the Wii. So I assumed that the 3DS could be a threat to the Wii 2 based on those sales. I did not factor in price difference between the two consoles.

[BlackNMild2k1]

That chart seems indicative to the idea that the 3DS could threaten the Wii 2.
 
It was late at night and I noticed that the DS sold more units per million than the Wii. So I assumed that the 3DS could be a threat to the Wii 2 based on those sales. I did not factor in price difference between the two consoles.

It was late at night and I noticed that the DS sold more units per million than the Wii. So I assumed that the 3DS could be a threat to the Wii 2 based on those sales. I did not factor in price difference between the two consoles.

or the fact that the DS came out 2 years before the Wii and that in most cases, individuals own handhelds and a household owns a Wii.

[Kytim89]

What are some good ways for the 3DS and the Wii 2 to connect in terms of games and functions?

[Spak-Spang]

I don't want the 3DS and Wii or Wii 2.0 to interact, because that just means I have to have 2 systems to get everything out of a game...or if a game like 4 Swords comes out for the system...I will never play it because I won't have both parts.  Realistically, there is very little interaction that is needed between the two.  Online gaming can do most of the things that interaction can do together anyway. 

The only 2 ways that might be interesting is a different controller for the Wii 2.0 for a special game...not really needed. 

Or playing a 3DS game on a big screen which isn't needed and would not allow for the 3D effect.  So I don't think they need interaction at all. 

[BlackNMild2k1]

Or Mario Paint Wii2, using the 3DS as your drawing pad.

or taking pictures with your 3DS to be used to create characters in games or Miis to be transfered between the 2 systems.
or a game like Pacman Vs or another 4 Swords (like you mentioned)

or as a controller with a personal screen for uses in games like Madden or CoD: Future Warfare where you control the UAV or robotic bomb defuser via 3DS screen.
Maybe as a way to connect to Pokemon Battle Arena on the Wii2 with each individual player choosing their pokemon from the game in their 3DS

There are probably dozens upon dozens of ways to use some form of connectivity between the 2 if Nintendo planned for connectivity while in the planning stages of both platforms. They haven't exactly produced anything that has sold anyone on connectivity in the past, but that's not to say that they couldn't make some really good in the future, should the 2 platforms be designed to be used together.