Topic: Analyst: 3DS May Cost $249-$299, Hit Japan First

[Ian Sane]

Even if the DS had no touchscreen or dual screens or microphone it was clearly a successor to the GBA due to the jump up in hardware specs.  And this is the same jump.  The Wii approach is completely unique.  No hardware ever was replaced by something that was such a small hardware jump.

3D might as well not be here.  "Hey, look there's Gamecube visuals on a portable!"  There, that's the jump.  Clearly a standard follow-up.

[TJ Spyke]

this being the same Nintendo that slashed the price of N64 before it launched so go them

They really had no choice, Sony had cut the price of the PS1 from $300 to $200 at E3 (despite the fact that it was still a huge seller), so it would have been stupid to release the N64 at $250.

Most analysts seem to think it will be $200-$250 (I haven't seen any say $300). I don't see this being more than $200.

oohhboy, have you even looked at any screenshots of games? It is far more than a "incremental" upgrade considering they look better than even the best GameCube games.

Adrock, we don't know what any of the launch games will be, so why are you so cynical that you think it will be filled with remakes? Besides, remakes can be great (depending on the game they are a remake of).

[Mop it up]

They really had no choice, Sony had cut the price of the PS1 from $300 to $200 at E3 (despite the fact that it was still a huge seller), so it would have been stupid to release the N64 at $250.

Do you have sales numbers for that? The only thing I could ever find is a blurb in Nintendo Power which states it took the PlayStation 15 months to sell its first million systems. I wouldn't call that a huge seller.

[Guitar Smasher]

With all do respect to this analyst (not that I respect analysts), I'm sticking with my prediction of $179.99.  If analysts are supposed to recognize trends, why do they skip the history of handheld domination by affordable Nintendo platforms?  This isn't Sony with the PS3.

I used the word incremental as meaning a sustaining innovation but either way to me it means the new device doesn't enable many games that the old one didn't already.

With the DS, the tapping of new markets was evident: mature adults, female gamers, etc.  But I would argue that the games that appealed to these customers could have been possible without the touchscreen.  Brain Age, Nintendogs - these games could have been made for PSP, and wouldn't be much different.  Sure the touchscreen made them more accessible, but it wasn't the reason they sold.  What more could you add to 3DS that would enable non-possible games?

So while I agree the 3DS is clearly a sustaining development, the potential to further expand the market exists if the right software is made.

[yoshi1001]

I have a few theories on the reasons we're getting the higher estimates:

-3D is still very new, so it's difficult to estimate the costs involved.
-Nintendo may have impressed people so much that they upped their estimates based on what they feel the system is worth.

As has been said, Nintendo prices their systems to make a profit on the hardware. The only way I can see them going above 200 is if they had to price it there to make a profit, which would run counter to some of what they said about how they chose the technology to use.

[Ymeegod]

I'm going with $200, why.  To finish off the PSP, yeah the PSP isn't much of a threat but it still has 30 pecent of the sales and nintendo's going want to nip them in the bud once and for all. 

Me, I'm somewhat excited by this--namely the lineup that interests me the most.  New Kingdom Hearts (or a remake who knows), DQ game, and a FF RPG that's not a spinoff. 

[TJ Spyke]

They really had no choice, Sony had cut the price of the PS1 from $300 to $200 at E3 (despite the fact that it was still a huge seller), so it would have been stupid to release the N64 at $250.

Do you have sales numbers for that? The only thing I could ever find is a blurb in Nintendo Power which states it took the PlayStation 15 months to sell its first million systems. I wouldn't call that a huge seller.

The PlayStation launched in December 1994. It started out slow in Japan, even being outsold by Saturn, but it grew over time and was an immediate hit in North America. By March 1996 (six months after its NA launch), it had reached 1 million in North America and that number would grow to 2.3 million in NA (and 8 million worldwide) by the time the N64 launched. Sony could barely keep up with demand even at the $300 price point. The price cut also pretty much killed Saturn's chance of catching up since Sega's big announcement was that they were dropping the price from $400 to $300 (even though they were still losing money at $400, but they felt pressured to match PS1's price).

[Mop it up]

Source?

[Louieturkey]

Even if the DS had no touchscreen or dual screens or microphone it was clearly a successor to the GBA due to the jump up in hardware specs.

Um, no it wasn't.  The DS was supposed to be the third pillar to sell alongside the GC and GBA.  Nintendo go really lucky in that it took the place completely of the GBA, especially in Japan.  The next Gameboy was actually scrapped because the DS sold so well.  The GBNext was going to be around as powerful as the PSP but because the DS did so well, they scrapped it and the GB name completely.

[KDR_11k]

Analysts may consider 250-300 a bargain because they're paid fairly well. Most people aren't.

With the DS, the tapping of new markets was evident: mature adults, female gamers, etc.  But I would argue that the games that appealed to these customers could have been possible without the touchscreen.  Brain Age, Nintendogs - these games could have been made for PSP, and wouldn't be much different.  Sure the touchscreen made them more accessible, but it wasn't the reason they sold.

I disagree, the touch screen's accessibility was a major part in creating the games, Brain Age's tests wouldn't work if you had to manually select letters, Nintendogs was huge because of the direct interaction using the touch screen and Professor Layton's puzzles often require the tap-anywhere nature of the stylus. Picross 3D would be clunky to an epic degree without a touchscreen.

[Mop it up]

I'm expecting $180-$200, because as the DSi has shown, people are willing to pay that much, unfortunately. I'm hoping it is $150 though, like the DS was. Though it should really go back to $100. No handheld is worth more than that.

[KDR_11k]

I don't think 180-200 is likely, the DSi had a massive established library and was aimed at higher-end users without having to worry about cutting lower end people out of the market since the DS Lite was still available.

[UncleBob]

Something to keep in mind - *if* this thing is going to launch by March 2011 and all.

Where will the 3DS fit in with the current DS models and the current pricing structure?

I assume, similar to Japan, the DS Lite will be discontinued and the DSi units will see a price drop.

So, if the DSi drops to $130 and the DSiXL drops to $150, would the 3DS launch between the two?  Higher than the XL?  Would the DSi units drop lower than that?

[NWR_insanolord]

It really depends on what it costs Nintendo to make the thing. They'd charge $150 if they could make a profit on it at that price; I'm just not sure that they could. Unfortunately, we're not going to know what it costs Nintendo until after it launches and someone tears it down and figures it out, so we can't factor that into the prediction.

[ThePerm]

im prediciting sub $200 with price cuts a-plenty for DS handhelds. It seems very un-mass market priced to be over $200 when the original came out for $149. At $299 its should be somewhere inbetween xbox1 and ps3 graphics..leaning towards ps3. Expect the next PSP to have ridiculous graphics and a 2 hour battery time and a $350 price tag.

[TJ Spyke]

Source?

One of the best books ever written about the history of video games, The Ultimate History of Video Games by Steven Kent (http://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-History-Video-Games-Pokemon/dp/0761536434).

UncleBob, I don't recall Nintendo discontinuing the DS Lite anywhere. It's still being sold in Japan.

Perm, some of the games do look better than Xbox games; not quite Xbox 360, but better than the Xbox.

[UncleBob]

UncleBob, I don't recall Nintendo discontinuing the DS Lite anywhere. It's still being sold in Japan.

Maybe it wasn't discontinued... It was my understanding that, during the latest round of markdowns, it was priced at "Retailer's Choice" meaning that Nintendo planned to discontinue it.

[Adrock]

this being the same Nintendo that slashed the price of N64 before it launched so go them

They really had no choice, Sony had cut the price of the PS1 from $300 to $200 at E3 (despite the fact that it was still a huge seller), so it would have been stupid to release the N64 at $250.

The point is that they did and they understood why. That's at least a $50 profit Nintendo essentially gave back to consumers in order to stay competitive. I'm merely suggesting that Nintendo break even on setting the MSRP on 3DS. Keep the price of the hardware as low as possible without taking a loss.

Adrock, we don't know what any of the launch games will be, so why are you so cynical that you think it will be filled with remakes? Besides, remakes can be great (depending on the game they are a remake of).

I won't presume that you keep track of my other posts, but I mentioned in another topic that there are only 2 games that would entice me to buy a 3DS at launch without question: New Super Mario Bros. 3 (preferably based on Super Mario Bros. 3) and a new 2D Metroid. Since neither of those games were unveiled at E3, I can only assume they aren't in development let alone coming out at launch. I just don't have the time to play videogames like I used to. I'm willing to wait and see what the future holds for the platform.

And you're right, remakes can be great, but I'm pretty sure I still own every game I would even want a remake for so remakes aren't at the top of my must-buy list and certainly will not convince me to buy new hardware for. In fact, there's only one remake I'd be absolutely buy and that's Final Fantasy VI. Maybe Final Fantasy IX, but most definitely VI.

[KDR_11k]

It really depends on what it costs Nintendo to make the thing. They'd charge $150 if they could make a profit on it at that price; I'm just not sure that they could. Unfortunately, we're not going to know what it costs Nintendo until after it launches and someone tears it down and figures it out, so we can't factor that into the prediction.

Honestly I don't think it costs much more than the DS did to make at launch. Really, how much has changed? The chipsets aren't cutting edge so most likely not terribly expensive and I doubt the screen is really difficult to manufacture.

[Hyrulian Guard]

Lol I expect it to launch 2010 in Japan for 229
then in U.S. For 200 in march.  My top end is 229
U.S.  I didn't get a dsi cause it wasn't big enough
up-grade. And no exclusive games(not counting
download).  But 3DS is a big jump and will get my
money.
 So SNES to N64 is  up grade cause 2D to 3D .
But ds/dsi to 3DS isn't  because why stereoscopic
3D doesn't count.  Lol

[TJ Spyke]

There are at least of couple of retail games that are DSi-exclusive.

[Caterkiller]

Even if the DS had no touchscreen or dual screens or microphone it was clearly a successor to the GBA due to the jump up in hardware specs.

Um, no it wasn't.  The DS was supposed to be the third pillar to sell alongside the GC and GBA.  Nintendo go really lucky in that it took the place completely of the GBA, especially in Japan.  The next Gameboy was actually scrapped because the DS sold so well.  The GBNext was going to be around as powerful as the PSP but because the DS did so well, they scrapped it and the GB name completely.

Yea it was. I remember these very arguments years ago. Anyone who thought that 3rd pillar nonsense was true just could not see Nintendo covering their butts just in case. I remember people talking about the next Gameboy like there was really some substance to it. The DS was obviously the only true succesor in the works, and if it failed Nintendo would have been heart broken and moved into the animated movie industry. The jump in power along with backwards compatibility should have let anyone know that the Game Boy name was done for, and that this was our Gameboy next! 

[vudu]

I'm enjoying this.  Let's study Nintendo's home consoles and whether or not they are incremental (IN MY OPINION)

NES -> Super NES
Definitely incremental.  Only possible innovation is the addition of two more face buttons and the shoulder buttons. I personally don't think either of those count.

No way was the NES -> SNES an incremental evolution.  It's true that the biggest addition to the SNES was increased horsepower, but the gap between the two systems was so large that it doesn't classify as incremental. 

[BlackNMild2k1]

I'm enjoying this.  Let's study Nintendo's home consoles and whether or not they are incremental (IN MY OPINION)

NES -> Super NES
Definitely incremental.  Only possible innovation is the addition of two more face buttons and the shoulder buttons. I personally don't think either of those count.

No way was the NES -> SNES an incremental evolution.  It's true that the biggest addition to the SNES was increased horsepower, but the gap between the two systems was so large that it doesn't classify as incremental. 

MODE 7 GRAFIX

[Sarail]

It was also the first Nintendo system to use somewhat polygonal graphics.

StarFox, remember?  Fantastic game.