I find it hard to believe that families are going to a)buy a PS3($299), b)buy Move($99), c)buy extra controllers($39?x3), d)buy games($59), when they can find the exact same experience on Wii, in which they have already invested.
Lets add that up at my imaginary register
PS3 = $300
Move = $100 (comes w/ game)
Xtra Moves Wand ($40)
x3 = $120
Sub Controllers ($25) (nunchuck)
x3 = $75
Extra Games ($60)
x2 = $120
--------------
........$715
(system, camera, 4 motion wands, 4 subcons, 3 games, 1 DS3)
vs
Whats already invested in Wii
Wii (Walmart bundle) = $200 (2games w/ M+)
Extra Wiimote w/ M+ ($50)
x2 = $100
Extra Nunchuck ($20)
x3 = $60
Classic Controller Pro
x1 = $20
Extra Games ($50)
x2 = $100 (1x = WiiPlay w/ wiimote)
--------------------
.......$480
(system, 4 wiimotes, 4 nunchucks, 4 games, 1 ccpro)
I don't think any casual already invested in a Wii is gonna make the investment. Not even at the bare minimum needed.
(PS3 + Move w/ 1game + SubCon = $425) vs (Wii w/ 2games & MP + CCPro = $225)
Huge difference.