I've heard the quote yesterday about 1 million copies from day one, but doesn't add details. Do they mean just here in north America, or globally? If so, 1 million globally isn't too difficult, but a good marketing campaign would help...
1 million in North America is a more challenging task. A marketing blitz around the level of Halo 3 would be needed, and even then, its dicey.
One of my friends owns a PS3 but could care less about FFXIII, or MGS4. Hell, even Drake's Fortune isn't on the radar. He is eagerly anticipating Haze and Killzone 2 though.
Who knows how much money is being poured into Gran Tourismo 5? That title may be the 'ultimate driving simulator', but it will also be the 'ultimate money pit'.
Without numerous 3rd party exclusives, or compelling 1st party titles, its going to be an uphill battle. Can the concept of HOME change this any? Or is it too little, too late?