Author Topic: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP resemble?  (Read 9050 times)

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Offline Chozo Ghost

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What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP resemble?
« on: May 22, 2007, 09:34:02 PM »
Do you think it is likely Sony will eventually release a sequel to their current generation of video game systems, or do you think they'll just throw in the towel and abandon video games entirely?

I personally think they won't give up very easily. The problem is, though, their "graphics is king" strategy has raised the bar too high for their future systems. Nintendo's next generation console would probably sell very well against the PS4, even if it only equaled Xbox360 or PS3 graphics. What can Sony and Microsoft do? They can't release the next generation of consoles without beefing up graphics higher than their current systems, so it is like they aren't really in the same market as Nintendo.

What will the PS4 be like if it ever came out? I guess that depends on how soon it comes out. If it is 10 years from now, as Sony assures us will be the lifetime of the PS3, then it could feature some very advanced technology having to do with Virtual Reality headsets and such. Who can really predict that far ahead? But it is obvious Nintendo and Microsoft won't be idle in that time either, and Nintendo will probably have lots of ideas up their sleeves which Sony will try to steal. But if the PS4 comes much sooner; in like 5 years or so, which I think it will, then it probably will be more like the PS3, but they will of course make it smaller and cheaper, and you can be sure it will have a motion sensitive controller similar to the Wii. I think the graphics won't improve that much over this generation, though. I think we are nearing the point where graphics are getting so close to real life that there isn't much to improve on.

Hardware is already at or near the point where the experience can only be enhanced by peripherals. Nintendo has already grasped this. I think Sony and Microsoft are starting to, but can they catch Nintendo's momentum?

I think the PSP line is going to be a larger conundrum for Sony. The handheld market is very different than the console one. Graphics are even less important on a handheld than they are on a console, and the PSP is very ill suited for this market. The optical media Sony chose for this device is very slow to load and is devastating for battery life. So I think if there ever is a PSP2 they are probably going to drop the UMD format and have it be card based like the DS, Well, I mean, that is if they were smart. But knowing Sony, I wouldn't be surprised if they introduce a mini blu-ray format for it. But even resolving that, they'd lose backwards compatibility with the last generation of the PSP, and this will put them at a serious disadvantage to Nintendo who will almost surely maintain backwards compatibility which has worked out well for them in the handheld market since the beginning.

So Sony faces the dilemma of keeping optical media and have the issues of long load time and low battery life associated with it, OR they abandon that and try card based media and completely lose backwards compatiblity, and alienate their current customers. Although, considering the very small number of exclusive hits the PSP has at the moment, losing backwards compatibility in the PSP2 probably doesn't matter much. So I am thinking if the continue in the handheld market their next device will drop the PSP name and have something completely new. That name is soiled and can never be respected again EVER. Whatever this device will be will probably feature a touchscreen and steal whatever else Nintendo is doing, because that's what Sony does best.

Perhaps I am wrong and there won't even be a PS4 or PSP2. I'm not a Sony fan so I really wouldn't mind if they gave up with video games, but I don't think they will. These are just my speculations. What are yours?  
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Offline Ceric

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2007, 04:44:00 AM »
I was surprise when the original PSP didn't have a touchscreen.  Especially considering Sony had a successful line of PDAs.
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Offline couchmonkey

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2007, 04:45:30 AM »
I really like this topic.

PSP...I think people overestimate the problems Sony faces here.  The system has already outsold Xbox and GameCube and can likely surpass Sega Genesis and N64 in its lifetime.  I think the system can be profitable if Sony can tighten game development budgets, much as Nintendo did with N64 and GameCube.  It will never be #1, but it can be a viable product.  I think there will be a PSP2, but depending on how quickly Sony reacts to Nintendo's market disruption it may follow a different philosophy than PSP.

PS3 / PS4 is even more interesting because at this point in time PS3 is shaping up to be a major failure.  There's something to salvage with PSP, but with PS3, I have trouble imagining how Sony will turn it around.  Crippling price cuts, or else if Blu-ray turns out to be massively popular in a few years, but both of those are big gambles.  Plus, if Wii continues on the path it's on, even a big Blu-ray turnaround would probably just make PS3 a fancy Blu-ray player with a lot of sales, not the #1 game console.

I don't think Sony's going to pack it up.  Unless PS3 gets so bad that it results in a near-bankruptcy, the company is going to have a hard time giving up a business that was once extremely profitable for it.  At one point in the late 90s, Playstation accounted for 1/3 of Sony's profits!  On top of that, Sony has almost double the game development personnel of Nintendo or Microsoft...Sony is really invested in this industry, it would be a waste of resources to just up and quit.  So does Sony make a PS4 with even more power?  If it's stupid, yes.

The thing is, if Wii continues the way it's going, an uber-powerful PS4/Xbox 720 is a waste of time, because the PS3 and Xbox 360 are already way more powerful than Wii, yet it's outselling them.  Even more power at an even higher price is not the solution.  Of course, that's a fairly big "if", we're still just six months into this particular console war, but all the signs are very much in Wii's favour.  And even if Wii doesn't win, PS3 has already proven that the super-deluxe route loses you tons of customers.  PS3 selling this poorly would have been unthinkable before Sony announced the price, and even then I don't think anyone expected it to be this bad.

Long story short: the most powerful system isn't the best solution, and Nintendo may have the best solution.  So if Sony is smart, the next Playstation may be no more than two PS3s "duct-taped together", with a vastly improved EyeToy or some other wacky new controller added on. The emphasis should be on saving customers money, opening up new markets, and exploiting Nintendo's weaknesses rather than more power.  Who knows if Sony will figure that out.  
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Offline BigJim

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2007, 06:53:37 AM »
I'm a firm believer that PS3 is performing as it is because of price. As the price comes down, their business will percolate again. I'm not expecting them to catch up or surpass Wii or 360, but to count them down and out would be wrong.

I'm fairly sure they'll release a new system when everybody else does. Supposedly 2011-ish. If the PS4 is based on an updated Cell, updated RSX and a BRD drive, its cost structure won't be quite as out of control and will have a better chance of making an earlier dent than PS3 did because the core technology will have matured. I definitely think there will be one, though. Even if the PS3 turns out to be Sony's N64, there is still plenty of chance to rebound. I'm not really sure what they can realistically do with graphics and horsepower in 5 years beyond advanced AI, physics, and maybe eliminate any fillrate issues. But that may be all that is really necessary, IMO.

The HD-DVD/BRD market is still miniscule, but BRD is in the lead at the moment and could very well be the next format. BRD discs are outselling HD-DVD by as much as 2:1. However, HD-DVD may have price in their pocket when we see HD-DVD players for as low as $250-$199 by this holiday. Who knows, but BRD has a good fighting chance, and this will help to validate PS3 in the long run also.

The PSP2 needs a tighter focus. They crammed purposes and features into the PSP to make it an everything-for-everybody that nobody really asked for. But it's almost guaranteed to have a touch-screen. Beef up resolution a little bit, address the access times, and they may have something interesting on their hands.
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Offline Adrock

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2007, 08:01:33 AM »
PSP did a lot of things, but none exceptionally well. While it has some solid titles, it's not great games machine. Hardware bottlenecks and battery life stunted its potential. With PSP2, Sony needs to approach it as a games machine first and foremost. It can do all those other things, but it needs to play games superbly. Little to no load times, decent battery life, and a means to save without having to buy an expensive memory stick.

It also needs titles that really justify it being on the system. All of PSP's titles could have easily been done and done better on a home console. However, something like Nintendogs takes full advantage of what the DS offers and it wouldn't be the same game on Gamecube.

Offline nitsu niflheim

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2007, 08:09:30 AM »
a pile of mess... lol
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Offline that Baby guy

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2007, 08:10:20 AM »
I think the only thing holding the PSP back is its marketing.  If they would advertise games, it would sell.  Anyone who wants that kind of extra features can get them on a cell phone.  Anyone who wants those kind of games has to know the games exist, and due to very ridiculous marketing, all everyone hears about is the features, not the games.  The PSP would have been a much stronger contender at almost any point in it's lifespan had games been the focus of marketing.

Heck, there are quite a few games on it that I wish were released on the DS instead.  They would probably need to turn the graphics back a tiny bit, in most cases, but I would love to play them.  Have I seen any of these games advertised?  Nope.

Offline Chozo Ghost

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2007, 10:42:37 AM »
Well, the PSP hardware sales aren't really all that bad, but when it comes to the actual games (or those pointless UMD movies) it seems no one is buying... Would the PSP2 face this same problem? Do you think Sony would cut back or at least de-emphasize multimedia capabilities if they made a PSP2?

As thatguy said, you can do those things with a cellphone or an Ipod. What cellphones and Ipods are kinda lacking now is quality video games. I'm thinking Sony missed their window of opportunity and that by the time they get their act together and come out with a PSP2 which addresses the issues of the PSP it will be too late for them. I'm thinking by that point gaming on mobile devices will be too far entrenched and there just won't be any room for a PSP2 to be much of a success...
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Offline Nephilim

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2007, 10:51:02 PM »
 got a feel psp2 is going to have better spec's then the wii

Offline NinGurl69 *huggles

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2007, 12:12:54 AM »
And be as big as a PS2.
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Offline Shift Key

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RE:What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2007, 01:17:14 AM »
Where's my PS3 grill? That's what we should be looking into!

Offline couchmonkey

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2007, 05:23:09 AM »
Sony practically HAS to scale back the multimedia features on the PSP2 because UMD is fail.  I like thatguy's point about marketing: there are some good games on PSP, but it seems like the focus is on features.  Maybe Sony could solve some of the sales problems with some more advertising.

I also agree with BigJim that Sony will definitely have a PS4, and that the price is a major problem for PS3.  The thing is, because of the price, games are slowly becoming a major problem for PS3 as well.  We all know that a ton of PS3 exclusives are becoming multiplatform "PS360" titles, but according to N'Gai Croal at Newsweek, the rumour in the industry is that some games may become Xbox360 exclusives if PS3 sales don't buck up soon, and some complete third-party PS3 games are being left on the back burner until the userbase grows.  If this is true, the situation is already worse than the GameCube.

Edit: Back to PS4, Sony could release a straight-up PS4 and get all the pricing problems under control while offering a nice premium product, but as with the N64 to GameCube transition, I think it would be too little too late: you may fix some of your problems, but your reputation has already gone downhill.  Of course, that's all assuming PS3 does as badly as I expect, it's still possible that it'll pull a Super Nintendo instead of an N64.
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Offline IceCold

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2007, 06:42:34 PM »
Hey guys! Why are you assuming that in five years Sony won't blow us away with innovation like Nintendo did with the Wii, then take everyone by storm and win the next generation by a landslide?
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Offline Flames_of_chaos

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RE:What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2007, 01:08:47 PM »
Well the only thing I think Sony will tout as innovative is the Eye of Judgement, Little Big Planet, Home and PS3's eye toy.
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Offline Kairon

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2007, 01:16:47 PM »
The next PSP will be COMPLETELY digitally distributed...

And it will be pirated to an even greater extent. MUAHAHAHAHA!!!
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Offline that Baby guy

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RE:What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2007, 01:43:06 PM »
Quote

Originally posted by: Kairon
The next PSP will be COMPLETELY digitally distributed...

And it will be pirated to an even greater extent. MUAHAHAHAHA!!!


Hey, it happened to the N-gage, it could happen again.

Offline King of Twitch

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2007, 10:11:55 PM »
What would a PS4 resemble... if it is any worse than the PS3 it would probably look like a zeppelin crashing into a ship, which then capsizes and sends a tidal wave that disjoins a railroad track, which causes a train to derail and smash into a chemical plant, after which Ken would come out and say "Ah, you see the way I planned to have my house fumigated? It was a beautiful turn of events! No one can deny this."
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Offline couchmonkey

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RE:What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #17 on: May 30, 2007, 11:44:08 AM »
Quote

Originally posted by: IceCold
Hey guys! Why are you assuming that in five years Sony won't blow us away with innovation like Nintendo did with the Wii, then take everyone by storm and win the next generation by a landslide?


LOLs.  You know, I think Sony might be capable of such innovation.  EyeToy gets taken for a rip-off of Game Boy Camera, but just as Nintendo came up with the first mainstream application of tilt control, EyeToy takes the basic idea of camera input and runs with it.  Not to mention Sony has huge game development teams and is showing off some interesting things like LittleBigPlanet and Home.  And also not to mention that Sony is a hardware company.  So why shouldn't Sony pull a Wii with the PS4?

I think Wii = Nintendo's reliance on video games + 15 years of eroding marketshare + plenty of vision from management

Nintendo needs video games.  Sony doesn't...although they have been really popular for the company.  This may cause Sony to play it safe or even just dump video games altogether.  Nintendo was pushed into risk-taking because it needed to reverse 15 years of dropping marketshare.

It took Nintendo a long time to figure out how to counteract all those years of marketshare loss.  The first several years were marked by a lot of pride and egotism, and the last few years were marked by a lot of confusion and mistakes.  Finally, Nintendo came up with a brand-new game plan that didn't involve mimicing the competition.  Can Sony give up its pride and come up with a solution to the current problem in just one generation?  I doubt it, but the good news is that Howard Stringers' whole job is to fix Sony's problems, so maybe he'll be on top of this one.

The hardest part of all...where are the people with vision?  Wii would be nowhere if it weren't for the creativity, planning, and execution provided by people like Iwata and Miyamoto.  Sony has lost Kutaragi, which seemed to be its big visionary madman.  At a casual glance, I don't think Kaz Hirai or any other big names at Sony are up to the task.  However, maybe there are some nameless dudes amongst its many developers - the guys who are working on things like Home - that could step up and make PS4 something special.

Those are all big ifs, though, and big ifs multiplied by other big ifs equal ifs so big they make PS3 look small.  Sony could very likely flounder with PSP2 and PS4 and give up on gaming in the process.  
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Offline NinGurl69 *huggles

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #18 on: May 30, 2007, 11:56:00 AM »
The psp2 and ps4 will be the same thing:

A high-def portable game system you wear on your body on-the-go.

The psp wrist keyboard and belt battery and the other stupid junk were hints to this.  The psp wanted to be bigger (hence attachments), and it's apparent the ps3 needs to be smaller or more portable.

It'll be an exo-suit, almost like the CENTURIONS, but you'll be a living, breathing, motion sensed high-def entertainment ORGANISM.  
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Offline that Baby guy

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #19 on: May 30, 2007, 12:17:20 PM »
No, wait.  Let's talk about home.  Can someone explain to me the innovation there?  Doesn't that scream Animal Crossing, Sims, and Achievements, with a dash of micro-payments?  I don't see the innovation.  Can someone explain it to me, because I just don't get it.

Offline NinGurl69 *huggles

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #20 on: May 30, 2007, 12:38:12 PM »
high-def, man, HIGH-DEF

DON'T FORGET HIGH-DEF
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Offline Bubba

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RE:What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #21 on: May 30, 2007, 01:55:39 PM »
The next psp will use that nifty screen sony just showcased.  (the paper thin one)  The ps4 will be a mimic of the wii with 1.5x ps3 graphics.

Offline that Baby guy

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #22 on: May 30, 2007, 02:08:23 PM »
The PS4 is just two PS3's duct-taped together!  AUGH IT SUCKS!  COSTS TOO MUCH

Offline couchmonkey

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RE: What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #23 on: June 01, 2007, 03:57:40 AM »
Home is not necessarilly a big innovation, and I think its ability to sell PS3s is overrated.  That said, the way the player gets an avatar and apartment tied to the console is cool (like Wii) and the way it fleshes it out to a larger scale is also cool.  Put another way: If the new features on Home were added to Wii, a lot of us would be drooling over them.

Maybe Home gets too much credit because it's a tiny beacon of light in Sony's otherwise black PS3 schedule, but on the flipside, the "LOL Home = Miis + achievements" attitude is giving it too little credit.  For that matter, Sony is not to be trusted, but it claims to have been working on Home for a few years.  I'd say it's a bad bet to assume that Sony is incapable of innovating, or at least adapting innovations just enough to be successful.
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Offline Spak-Spang

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RE:What would a hypothetical PS4 or PSP2 resemble?
« Reply #24 on: June 01, 2007, 06:37:37 AM »
Quote

Originally posted by: Bubba
The next psp will use that nifty screen sony just showcased.  (the paper thin one)  The ps4 will be a mimic of the wii with 1.5x ps3 graphics.


Which by Sony's accord would mean that the PS4 will have graphics that look 1.5X real life.

However taking this thread seriously for a second.

Next generation PS4 will be interesting to see.  It all depends what happens in this market.  If Sony turns around and somehow gains top spot again in this generation.  The PS4 will be more of the same.  An uber powerful system with some new innovations inspired by Nintendo.

If Nintendo is successful then a new focus will be placed on gaming.  One less on just graphics and power, and more on affordability.  By that time the computers will be able to handle HD affordably and we will truly entire the age of HD with storage devices that support it better and an affordability that opens the market to everything.

With the PSP2 I think Sony will try another route completely.  I see it going to a more IPOD type gaming device.  A mega Hard Drive to download your games and the PS4 will be the hub to store games not being played as well as music, videos, and more.  Affordability will be more important as well.  And I see touch screen gaming becoming a staple of all future handheld devices.