Author Topic: Analyst Predicts Wii Shortages to Continue (Read 8712 times)

Pale · « **on:** April 25, 2007, 09:29:27 AM »

Wiis won't be on shelves until 2009?!
http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/newsArt.cfm?artid=13365

In what is possibly the most optimistic (in regards to Wii) analyst report yet, IDC research analyst Billy Pidgeon predicts Wii demand to outpace supply until 2009!

From the Home Media Magazine Article: “I believe the Wii will continue strong growth although supply continues to be a problem," Pidgeon said. “I’d like to see Wii hardware shipping in larger quantities or mass market consumers may cool on it. Having said that, I don’t believe supply will meet demand for the Wii until 2009. Xbox 360 and PS3 need system-selling games ASAP. Halo 3 will help, as will Lair and Heavenly Sword, but that leaves a hole in Q2 which will be filled by Wii, DS and PSP hardware and software. We’ll also see more PC and PS2 software picking up the slack."

Much of the video game press is used to taking these analyst reports with a huge grain of salt, but after several NWR staffers predicted that demand would never outpace supply, one has to wonder who's smarter. We thought you could walk into a store at noon on launch day and pick one up. He doesn't think you'll be able to until 2009.

Hit the source link above to read their full state of the industry article.

NWR_pap64 · « **Reply #1 on:** April 25, 2007, 10:42:48 AM »

Looks like the analysts have beaten SB's prediction of Wii shortages by 2 years... :\

I think they are being alarmists since I doubt that the console will be THAT popular.

Then again, the DS is still selling out even after 2 years of being released. It may or may not happen, we'll see.

Ian Sane · « **Reply #2 on:** April 25, 2007, 10:48:13 AM »

2009 would be insane. Makes you wonder who the hell is buying the Wii? If you can't find the Wii in stores how does the thing sell out? I guess it's like all those concerts and sporting events where the second the tickets go on sale you phone to buy them while looking online at the same time and somehow 20,000 other people get tickets and you don't.

Analysts though typically don't know crap about videogames (or much of anything). Logically the Wii has to be available in stores sooner than later because the fact that you can't find it anywhere is likely to discourage some people from buying it, thus decreasing demand. If Nintendo didn't meet demand until 2009 I figure it would piss off so many potential customers who got fed up with waiting that the demand would reach a point where it could be met. A reputation for undersupplying stores would have a negative effect.

The whole thing is making me consider looking for a Wii soon in case I can't find one when Metroid Prime 3 comes out. Still I think I'll wait until an official date for that game is revealed.

that Baby guy · « **Reply #3 on:** April 25, 2007, 11:16:39 AM »

I think we all know that it's Smash_Brother. He's buying all the Wiis, and no one else can get them.

Seriously, though, I think we learned from before the launch that analysts don't know what they're are talking about in regards to video games. They just don't comprehend the industry. Really, though, this guy is predicting sell outs for two more years. If we assume that 1 million Wiis are made a month, which I believe is the trend we're seeing, though I'm being generous, as production rates naturally increase over time, this analyst is saying that Nintendo will have sold 26 million units by 2009. I suppose that isn't too incredible, but it's likely demand won't be the same as it is now, in the event this happens. I imagine most people will only have to arrive at a store half an hour before opening to get a Wii, rather than spend the night at the door. Or something.

I suppose what this analyst sees is the demand for the DS, which is still high, paired with the fact that over 30 million DSs have been sold, and that the demand for the Wii is higher than the demand for the DS has ever been, except perhaps in Japan, so he believes the Wii will sell until it reaches the numbers the DS has. He probably pinpoints that to happen in 2009, though, if Wiis sell-out until then, we have to wonder what rate they'll be produced at.

Does anyone have the rates that console production is ramped up for leading consoles? As far as I can tell, all we know is that there are more Wiis and PS3s out there than is typical six months after launch. I don't know how the rate normally increases, but it obviously does, and knowing this rate could be useful to figure out the actual numbers we're dealing with here.

couchmonkey · « **Reply #4 on:** April 25, 2007, 11:22:58 AM »

I'm actually starting to give a little credit to Michael Pachter at Wedbush Morgan. They predicted a $500 price tag would cool down demand for PS3 way back in 2004.

The thing here is that Nintendo has potentially tapped hundreds of millions of customers that were never interested in video games before, it's not hard at all for a market that size to snap up systems as fast as they come out. I think this prediction could ring true in a sort of loose sense...there may be on-and-off shortages for that long, or even longer. I have a feeling it will be possible to find one without working your butt off before then. (My official prediction is sometime around the middle of next year).

If nothing else, Nintendo can start reposessing Wiis from KDR-land and sell them elsewhere.

TrueNerd · « **Reply #5 on:** April 25, 2007, 11:28:59 AM »

Two-thousand-and-nine?!?! That seems a bit ridiculous, barring long-term meltdowns at all of Nintendo's production facilities.

Kairon · « **Reply #6 on:** April 25, 2007, 11:29:58 AM »

I don't have the rates, but it's interesting to note that the Wii is outselling and outSHIPPING any other console ever on a worldwide basis at this point in its life cycle. It's doing a consistent 750,000 - 1,000,000 per month, and that's BEFORE Nintendo tries to ramp up production in... when? April? Or when they can find a new partner?

With regards to supply issues... I wonder how the traditional lean summer months will affect sales. Will the Wii stay in stratospheric demand this summer? Because if not, Holiday season '07 won't do much to relieve the pressure...

But if Nintendo is going to keep sold-out through 2008 as well, they need another major non-game hit out this holiday season I think... their own singstar, their own Buzz, the next Nintendogs or Brain Age. And I'm starting to suspect that neither Wii Health or Wii Music will cut it.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #7 on:** April 25, 2007, 11:46:08 AM »

Well they do have the partners it just a question on when the factory floor space becomes available and it converted for Wii production. And if this analyist's prediction comes true the Wii will outsell all console except the exception to the Gameboy line. (Which one source has it at around 280 million units, but it took 10 years to acchieve that.)

Madcat221 · « **Reply #8 on:** April 25, 2007, 12:01:50 PM »

With all the Nintendo doomsaying that went on before the Wii, I have determined that the first four letters of the word "analyst" indicates where they get their information from.

Kairon · « **Reply #9 on:** April 25, 2007, 12:08:56 PM »

What about the last 4? Lyst? Like cyst? Like a cancer?

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

couchmonkey · « **Reply #10 on:** April 25, 2007, 12:22:24 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Kairon

But if Nintendo is going to keep sold-out through 2008 as well, they need another major non-game hit out this holiday season I think... their own singstar, their own Buzz, the next Nintendogs or Brain Age. And I'm starting to suspect that neither Wii Health or Wii Music will cut it.

I have to question this part, because Wii Sports has already proven to be a ridiculous hit for the system, why shouldn't Wii Health? I'm sure I'm not the only Wii-er running a fitness test on Wii Sports on a regular basis.

Wii Music I think has a lot of potential too, but I admit it's not as proven. For every Guitar Hero you've got an Elite Beat Agents.

Smash_Brother · « **Reply #11 on:** April 25, 2007, 12:24:56 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: thatguy
I think we all know that it's Smash_Brother. He's buying all the Wiis, and no one else can get them.

All your Wiis are belong to ME.

But seriously, 2009 is WAAAAY too long. I found two Wiis at a local Wal-mart around 3-4 PM, which means that they had to have been sitting in the glass case for at least 1-2 hours so I don't think demand is what it was earlier this year.

Of course, that was a lucky find so it might still be pretty bad, but if the number of people who have the "see Wii = buy" mindset is decreasing, then we should be on track for being fine in August-Sept which is what I predicted.

Ian Sane · « **Reply #12 on:** April 25, 2007, 12:57:22 PM »

"I suppose what this analyst sees is the demand for the DS, which is still high, paired with the fact that over 30 million DSs have been sold, and that the demand for the Wii is higher than the demand for the DS has ever been, except perhaps in Japan, so he believes the Wii will sell until it reaches the numbers the DS has."

I don't think it compares. A family of five could buy five DS's but would likely only buy one Wii. It makes sense to own multiple portables but not so much a stay-at-home console. A portable is a personal item like a watch or cellphone but a console is a household item.

UltimatePartyBear · « **Reply #13 on:** April 25, 2007, 01:03:14 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane
2009 would be insane. Makes you wonder who the hell is buying the Wii? If you can't find the Wii in stores how does the thing sell out?

That reminds me of the famous Yogiism, "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded." Obviously a lot of people are buying Wiis, or they wouldn't be selling out.

that Baby guy · « **Reply #14 on:** April 25, 2007, 01:44:00 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane
I don't think it compares. A family of five could buy five DS's but would likely only buy one Wii. It makes sense to own multiple portables but not so much a stay-at-home console. A portable is a personal item like a watch or cellphone but a console is a household item.

By taking a similar approach, a family that does not own a DS could find more value in buying a Wii. Where the family of four would each have their own ability to play on a DS simultaneously @ approx. $550 (4 DSs and one game), the same family could play on the Wii simultaneously @ $370 (1 Wii and 3 Wiimotes). The Wii is $180 better of a value for people who want a next-gen gaming capabilities at a lower cost. Could this value end up promoting higher interest in the Wii?

Remember that there have been about 35,000,000 DS units sold, as of January, I believe. If we assume there are 6 billion people on the planet, that means that about 0.58% of all people own a DS. In this respect, we know that the ceiling has not been hit on game console sales. Even if you were to take that 6 billion people and divide it into families, the ratio of Wiis to families is still infinitesimal.

Even if we assume that the US, Japan, and European union were the only places that contain parties interested in next-generation gaming, there are about 921,000,000 people in those areas. The ratio of the DS to people in these places is about 1:26. Now, remember that the Wii is a better value for families looking into next-gen gaming, and realize that nearly limitless Wiis could be sold, and still not meet what could possibly be the demand.

Of course, this is only an weak analysis of the highest ceiling of demand, and not the floor, but we honestly can't determine either one much more efficiently until supply meets demand. Remember that the Wii has reached a new audience even further than the DS has, too. Bars often have Wii nights, among other things, like the Wii at Six Flags, and more, so the demand ceiling could potentially be even higher than what I stated, but that pushes it a little too far, I think.

SixthAngel · « **Reply #15 on:** April 25, 2007, 04:46:13 PM »

While that is a long time I see it as a possibility. The key is that this is worldwide. If demand in one region drops they could move systems from that region to a higher demand region without to much trouble. I don't think this means lines every new shipment but each shipment selling out within a day or two. It doesn't take much to realize it will be sold out on the holidays, next summer seems to be the hard part from the looks things since the Wii train seems to be taking out this summer by the looks of it.

that Baby guy · « **Reply #16 on:** April 25, 2007, 05:08:03 PM »

I think another thing we forget is that demand increases every time key game is released. When Super Mario Galaxy is released, there should be a pretty sharp increase in demand. When Metroid Prime 3 is released, we should see a sharp increase in demand. Same goes for SSB:B and I'm willing to bet that the same will happen with the release of Disaster: Day of Crisis, or whatever it's called.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that's why we haven't seen Metroid Prime 3 yet. After the initial delay, Nintendo saw that the game was necessary to promote interest in the Wii, so they probably went back to add more to the game, to make their whole campaign that much more effective. Does anybody else think this may be the case? I don't see this as a bad thing, so long as Nintendo isn't sitting on the game, and instead are adding new things, and making the games better with the luxury of time they may have.

And what the heck ever happened to that GC Kirby game? It better not have been canceled.

UncleBob · « **Reply #17 on:** April 25, 2007, 06:03:50 PM »

Blue Plant · « **Reply #18 on:** April 25, 2007, 06:37:53 PM »

I admire love how analysts Ms. Cleo things so far in advance they hope nobody will remember their miserable predictions by then.

KDR_11k · « **Reply #19 on:** April 25, 2007, 07:25:30 PM »

Just yesterday I saw that more stores now have huge piles of Wii lying around... Maybe they'd sell better if NoE wasn't dumb as bricks. Maybe they'd sell better if we had Super Paper Mario available! I don't think that even has a release date for Europe, they'll probably skip it altogether or release it sometime in 2009.

Plugabugz · « **Reply #20 on:** April 25, 2007, 08:55:32 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: KDR_11k
Just yesterday I saw that more stores now have huge piles of Wii lying around... Maybe they'd sell better if NoE wasn't dumb as bricks. Maybe they'd sell better if we had Super Paper Mario available! I don't think that even has a release date for Europe, they'll probably skip it altogether or release it sometime in 2009.

Super Paper Mario doesn't exist on the NoE website. We will either get it Q3 2007 or somewhere in 2008 at the very earliest.

Wii Pre Order is a good example of how manic things are over here.

PREDICTION: Nintendo have got Japan sealed and America seems to be next. In the next-gen, or maybe the one after, Europe becomes the main battleground for marketshare. YEAH RIGHT! we live in hope

Ceric · « **Reply #21 on:** April 26, 2007, 02:26:30 AM »

At the beginning NoE was doing ok but, now their/they're/there incompetence keeps showing. I know they have more languages to deal with and like. Maybe they should just break their/they're/there region down into sub-regions with different release dates. I doubt that help though.

couchmonkey · « **Reply #22 on:** April 26, 2007, 04:21:52 AM »

...then KDR would be complaining that it's available in UK on top of all U.S. and Japan (not a swipe at KDR, just an observation on what that would mean).

I wish we had better sales figures for Europe. As far as I know Wii is still outselling the other consoles over there, even if it isn't sold out. But who knows? Nobody, that's who.

Plugabugz · « **Reply #23 on:** April 26, 2007, 08:12:35 AM »

European translations should begin at exactly the same time the American ones do. Thus they aren't late.

Oh no that's too simple please forgive me?

that Baby guy · « **Reply #24 on:** April 26, 2007, 08:49:16 AM »

Well, I always believed they based all the Romantic language versions on the English version, rather than the Japanese one. I figured that's why there's the delay, usually.

News:

Author Topic: Analyst Predicts Wii Shortages to Continue (Read 8712 times)