Since I've been seeing many individuals, mainly those so called "professionals" throwing their hat in the ring analyzing the future "gaming wars" I thought I would give it a shot. To begin, since this is a Nintendo board let me start with Wii. As the time has flown by we are starting to get more of an outlook on a potential system seller, that being the Virtual Console. As most of you know the VC has been growing in its support, which should help it become a success (as long as pricing is reasonable). If it does achieve success I'm sure you will start seeing games “rare” games for it such as Breath of Fire or maybe some long lost Saturn games. With publishes like Sega, Hudson, and SNK signing on already, the VC may very well be a must have feature for gamers of all kinds.
In regards to the Wii itself, it appears it will have one of the strongest launch lineups in quite awhile. At the end of this I will post the unconfirmed launch lineup. There is no indication at all (except Sony fan boy hope) that they will be relying on “old” games to sell itself, if anything it has potential to add a fresh take on about any game put on it. If the record breaking lines at E3 are any indication I think Nintendo may very well be sitting on a goldmine, which should help propel it to big things in the future.
I do have some concerns regarding Wii and they remains with its lack of power, which could become an issue for the technology geek. This could be a mute point in the long run, because history has shown us that the most graphically powerful system has not always won the console wars. Wii's success is going to have to fall upon game play with graphics being just enough to suck the gamer in. This does appear to be the case with many of Nintendo’s first party titles, while not gorgeous, they are attractive visually. Still there are many horsepower nuts out there, so it will take some work on Nintendo's part to convince them to turn towards the Wii.
My other concern is focused on Nintendo's past marketing success, which has been, um, pitiful. They have been showing improvement with NDS but they still need to convey the image of what it is like to PLAY the game in their commercials, this could be a big challenge since they cannot rely solely on game play footage or CGI like some other unnamed company. Finally the name itself still needs to obtain a positive image. Yes I believe it has become less of an issue, and in fact a positive thing (The amount of publicity the name controversy got Nintendo turned out to be quite good), but it still needs work to suck in the "Mature" minded individuals who can't get over their crude, immature jokes. Then there is the non-gamer, Nintendo needs to go iPod on their butts and develop a picture of what the Wii is, in the non-gamers’ head, which once again falls back upon how well Nintendo markets the system.
In conclusion, I think the positives outweigh the negatives. With the cheap price, and unique way of playing games I do not see how Wii will fail. It should be able to at least get 2nd place in the system wars worldwide, especially with excitement already brewing both in the US and Japan.
Now onto Sony, I believe they may struggle in Japan (possible even get trounced) and the U.S. If you have been paying much attention to the PSP you would know, in Japan, it is getting crucified by the NDS Lite, this tells me that the Sony name does not automatically sell systems, and that gamers are not nearly as blind to “brand” as I originally thought. If the PS3 starts to struggle in Japan I would not be surprised to see some of its exclusives start to fade away. As of right now the main exclusives it has that are top sellers are Final Fantasy and MGS. Even those exclusives may be brought into question if the PS3 starts to struggle. I really would not be surprised to see Japanese developers move to 360 or Wii (more so Wii since the Japanese may not be as willing to support an American console). We could definitely be seeing another PS2 like generation where the “weakest” system got the most games. Nintendo also has one big attraction that Sony does not, and that is the low development costs. If I were Sony I would be sweating like crazy, they cannot last on MGS or FF alone (Or giant crabs for that matter).
Let us also factor in a Famitsu poll (Japans most popular gaming magazine) gave Wii a large lead in interest 68% compared to 21%. This gap has also been expanding as more polls come out, that is not a good sign! I realize that polling may not be the most accurate, but at the very least this Famitsu indicates a lot of interest in Wii. They are also one of the most highly regarded magazines in Japan, so I tend to trust their polling as being more "in tune" with the gaming public.
Even if you disregard the polling you are forced to take into account Sony's current financial and production problems with PS3, they had to take out a 700 million dollar loan (actually 698 million for the technical ones out there), and that combined with the fact that chip yields for the processor are 10-20% is not a good sign either. This all means they will probably sell out at launch, but like the 360 this will be due to not only the “newness” but also lack of systems.
People like to flaunt Sony’s domination the last two generations as proof of it not being able to fail, how soon we forget. Anyone remember Nintendo with a system called the N64? They WERE video games before N64 and Nintendo, in their arrogance, Nintendo decided that they could not lose so they not only released way after the PS1 but also stuck with carts. What happened? Well the N64 struggled and started a downhill slide for Nintendo, being the first generation which it actually lost.
Sony seems to be developing the same arrogant attitude due to the fact that unlike PS1 and PS2 which had little competition when they were launched (they were also competitively priced); Sony is now releasing their console last at a price that is strikingly high. Say what you want about teens with money, who can’t afford the system, but you need them to support a system too and as of now PS3 is not an attractive option.
Everything I have read is that the PS3 is not that much more powerful, if any, than the Xbox 360 (I believe even Kojima said the MGS4 footage could have been done on 360) but the comparison is tough since they use different architectures. Regardless, what is driving the price is the blu-ray player, not the gaming hardware and even at that they are losing close to 300$ on each system sold.
With all these potential issues cropping up this next generation is not going to be a walk in the park like the last two generations for Sony. They no longer have the luxury of being first or having a competitive price (I still hold out that the Sony brand is not as strong as people think and their success was because of timely and price conscience releases).
It is my prediction that Sony will take at least 2nd in Japan, but this due to Xbox not being that accepted. But as we know in gaming, anything could happen and Sony could be left in the dust and MS could possibly build upon their Japanese market share with support from Japanese developers. Worldwide is another story, I think it is going to be a tight race between Xbox 360 and PS3, with the Wii being a potential runaway success due to the price (then again it could be a tight race all around, it is tough to tell).
Now this all brings me to Xbox 360, the potential wildcard. So far I believe the 360 is in the hands of 7 or so million gamers (Please correct me if I’m wrong, this is just a guess), so it already has a solid user base. I have no idea how it is doing in Japan, except not so well. Excluding Japan, Microsoft has something to build a system that is far more successful than the Xbox; all they need to do is try to build on their 1 year lead. I see Xbox 360 taking first in America, unlike Sony, Microsoft does not have the idea that their brand will sell systems and like I showed, it appears gamers aren’t too thrilled with brand either. This leaves an opportunity for Microsoft to make a killing with exclusives, while Sony has MGS, FF and their first party games, MS has games like Forza, Project Gotham, Gears of War, and the juggernaut, Halo. These games should be enough to suck in American gamers, perhaps even more so than Sony’s potential exclusives because they have MORE.
Worldwide I’m going to have put Xbox 360 at 2nd or 3rd place since it will probably be destroyed by both Wii and PS3 in Japan. In America I think it will take a 2nd or 1st place crown because of its competitive price and large library of games. So basically, anywhere but Japan is up for grabs when it comes to Xbox 360. In places other than America I'm going to give PS3 the benefit of the doubt because of them having more exposure. I could be dead wrong since I am not really that in tune with gaming sales elsewhere in the world besides NA and Japan.
In conclusion I do think Wii will end up winning this generation, with my prediction based upon the success of the DS. If anything, the DS Lite has shown that gamers are not impressed with the best graphics or even “best” brand name, but instead still look at the games. With what seems like a lot of 3rd party support, affordable price and gaming experiences that you cannot get on the other consoles, it has so much going for it I think you would be insane not to see the potential to dominate. PS3 is my pick for 2nd for reasons already stated, though I think the market share will be much less than it was last generation. And finally 360 I'm unsure of except that I feel it will not win Japan, but potentially win America, elsewhere is up for grabs between PS3 and 360. For the heck of it, I will say Xbox 360 will obtain 3rd due to the leverage Japan has on gaming. Regardless, this should be a fascinating time for games.
Topic: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars (Read 7867 times)
