Topic: POLL: When's the Wii launch date?

[Pale]

I don't think beating Sony to market is as important as you all think.  The only people that are going to shell out the 600 dollars for the system are the people that are going to buy it regardless of when Wii comes out.

[Ceric]

Yes.  But the Parents that were going to shell out $600 for there little one can be convinced that the Wii is a more Fiscally sound console and that they themselves might enjoy and not just junior.  That market you could get with some lead time.

[Pale]

You overestimate a parent's power over their child.  If a child wants a PS3 and a parent can afford it, Nintendo isn't convincing the parent otherwise.

[couchmonkey]

I think you're largely right about parents vs. kids, Pale.

As for Wii vs. PS3, I think it may work to Nintendo's benefit to beat Sony to market in the long run, but I admit it will make almost no difference for the first few months.  Both systems will be short on supply, probably.  In the long run, though, Nintendo may get more press by releasing well before (or after) PS3, and thus a little more consumer awareness.

[Pale]

I dunno.  All I keep thinking about is how close XBox and Cube launched, and how the eventual outcome had nothing to do with it.

[Kairon]

Fortunately, the Wii sells just as much to kids as it does to parents. Whereas the PS3 motion sensing controller just looks awkward, the Wiimote is just coolios!

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Pale]

If by awkward you mean normal and by coolios you mean different.

Ignorance would allow for Sony's blatant copying to work.  Don't downplay it just because we know that it isn't as good.  If a kid sees "Classic Dual Shock with Motion Sensing" and "Remote shaped controller with motion sensing" they look like the same thing.

[JonLeung]

The PS3 controller's motion sensing is only good for tilting, and maybe driving.

Since it's not a wand-shape, it's too awkward to be used as a tool (hammer, knife), melee weapon (hammer, sword, axe), musical instrument (drumstick, conductor wand), long-range weapon (gun, bow), sports equipment (golf club, baseball bat, tennis racket) and it doesn't seem like a natural pointer (for selecting things in RPGs or RTSes or sniping in FPSes).

The PS3 controller LOOKS "normal", but it will sure feel awkward if they try to use its motion sensing in the same capacity as in Wii games.

[Kairon]

Have you SEEN Sony's Warhawk gameplay example during their press conference?

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Spak-Spang]

I think launching early or at the same time as Sony is important for this holiday season.  And often times the holiday seasons can define momentum for the future.  

Xbox had a great launch game that helped carry momentum into future sales...the Gamecube did not.

Launching early ensures that your system is available to purchase and your games before the competition.  Meaning people will be dropping coin on your system first...and potentially not having the funds for the other system this holiday.

It is atleast as important for Nintendo to launch the same time as PS3.  

However, all the 3rd party indicates late November not the early October we hope for.

[Pale]

Don't give me this launch game reason for MS's success.

GameCube had possibly the greatest game ever come out only two weeks after launch, well before christmas.  Same difference.

[couchmonkey]

I think MS' ultimate success rested in Nintendo's inability to sustain a full-force marketing campaign.  Where was GameCube 4 months after launch?  Microsoft was hawking Bloodwake and Wreckless and Halo, and Nintendo had nothing.  Microsoft also seemed to reach more different mediums.  I saw similar quantities of commercials on TV, but Xbox-branded floormats and standees filled Toys 'R Us in 2001 while Nintendo was nowhere to be seen.

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: Pale I dunno.  All I keep thinking about is how close XBox and Cube launched, and how the eventual outcome had nothing to do with it.

You keep thinking about this as if it were a normal Nintendo system. It isn't. This is a new concept which Nintendo needs to prove in the marketplace not only to win the support of gamers and non-gamers but to win the support of developers who are currently casting a critical eye on the Wii.

If the Wii starts slow because its launch was buried under a pile of PS3 mainstream media coverage (Sony isn't beyond paying news networks to ensure the PS3's launch is "newsworthy"), then a lot of the devs who doubt the Wii now are going to say, "See? We were right!" and the devs who plan to support it might scale their support back, fearing that the Wii will indeed turn out to be GC2 and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I feel that the Wii has a great deal of potential, but if I were Nintendo, I wouldn't risk the launch by allowing Sony's hype machine to bury the Wii under a pile of PS3 ads saying, "New PS3 motion sensing controller makes games fun and innovative!" and then showing a bunch of beautiful FMVs from games which they'll try to pass off as gameplay.

By launching a month in advance, Nintendo would force Sony to fire their ad cannon early if they intended to smother the Wii's launch. Hyping the PS3 enough to smother the Wii will be nigh impossible if the PS3 won't be in stores for another MONTH.

This isn't the DS vs. the PSP where Nintendo typically dominates the market. Nintendo needs to prove that it can push units, and there would be no better way to prove this than to have the initial 6 million Wiis sell out before the PS3 even reaches store shelves (in a month, I think they could do it). That would seal the deal and earn Nintendo the 3rd party support which their previous two consoles lost marketshare without.

Sony is going to put more marketing power into the PS3 than likely anything they've ever created because the fate of Sony basically rests upon the success of the console: it's their primary hope for pushing BluRay into the market and you'd best believe they're going to make sure EVERYONE has heard of it before it launches.

What company with two brain cells to rub together would release a competing product into the middle of what will no doubt be a "Hail Mary" marketing campaign by Sony?  

[Kairon]

Good points SB.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Pale]

By launching a month in advance it gives everyone plenty of time to be 'bored' of wii and get hyped about PS3 for christmas.

My point is that there is pluses and minuses to both.  I don't think either is a better idea than the other.  One could sit here and argue that the newest console will do the best at christmas because kids like new things.

This all started because everyone counts out the November 19th date because it is supposedly after the PS3 launch which would supposedly mean death for Nintendo.

I'm just saying that Nintendo is more reasonable than that.  They don't care about Sony.  They want the Wii launch to stand on its own, and the best way to do that is to pick a date that will give them the most time to prepare.  November 19th is that date.

[Kairon]

Quote
Originally posted by: Pale
By launching a month in advance it gives everyone plenty of time to be 'bored' of wii and get hyped about PS3 for christmas.

My point is that there is pluses and minuses to both.  I don't think either is a better idea than the other.  One could sit here and argue that the newest console will do the best at christmas because kids like new things.

This all started because everyone counts out the November 19th date because it is supposedly after the PS3 launch which would supposedly mean death for Nintendo.

I'm just saying that Nintendo is more reasonable than that.  They don't care about Sony.  They want the Wii launch to stand on its own, and the best way to do that is to pick a date that will give them the most time to prepare.  November 19th is that date.

Good points Pale.

But didn't Smash Bros. point out that even if you don't care about Sony, you WILL care about how much attention the public will be able to pay to you?

Or do you sincerely believe that marketting doesn't matter?

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Ceric]

Actually I could see Nintendo surviving even if I lose the bet and heres why.

It seem the general consences(sp?) is that Nintendo's super-hype machine(shm), an exponent of 2 better then there regular hype machine, won't go into effect until after or near the console release.  This may not be the case.  I think Pale could win and Nintendo could do fine IF they start the shm early enough.  Yes, I think an Oct. 2 launch would be ideal but this is not what this is about.  If Nintendo can leave a very long shadow with its shm starting say September they could reach saturation by the time Sony's shm kicks in.  Once the ground is saturated it takes no more water.

Nintendo has actually started a good foundation for this.  Most people you talk with are generally excited about the Wii.  While Sony, well....  This is a good position for Nintendo.   The only thing hurting it is the lack of interaction after a good E3 showing.  After the September announcement Nintendo needs to go and spread the word.  The Fusion Tour is not spreading the word.  After the announcements we should be seeing interviews in places like Times and USA Today.  Get Dave Ramsey or Oprah Winfrey to try it.  If they enjoy it I'm sure many will be curious.  Get Wii demo units or just propaganda into common places like the post office, electric company, banks, etc.  In fact see if you can get a famous Virtual Console character stamp series going with them all doing something with the Wii.  Cereal giveaway things.  Kids Meal toys.  Cola. You get the point.  The idea is that everyone knows about and when something comes up about the PS3 it will be "but what about the Wii?".  People like what they know.

Simply put if Nintendo can generate enough momentum outside of the normal crowd they could pull it off.  If they could further the stereo type that the PS3 is for the Snooby rich kid.  That would help to.  Something they should avoid is trying to sell the Nintendo name and their past successes.  The Wii should be advertised like its the only thing they got.  Not reference the others for strength.  Fact of the matter until its release I advertise the VC as having past games and not be specific in any way shape or form.  I leave that for after the initial launch.  I'm going to end this here I can't thing of a good ending sentence ;p

[Smash_Brother]

Thanks, Kai.

Quote
Originally posted by: Pale By launching a month in advance it gives everyone plenty of time to be 'bored' of wii and get hyped about PS3 for christmas.

I think it gives people on the fence more time to try and decide they want the Wii before they blow their budget on a PS3.

Nintendo likely won't be able to out ADVERTISE Sony, but if the Wii has had a month to saturate into the populace and make an impact as more people learn about it, THAT would be the most critical blow Nintendo could deal the PS3.

Quote
I'm just saying that Nintendo is more reasonable than that.  They don't care about Sony.  They want the Wii launch to stand on its own, and the best way to do that is to pick a date that will give them the most time to prepare.  November 19th is that date.

No matter how much Nintendo would deny it, they understand that there's a finite amount of money and attention which the populace can put forth.

Capturing that attention and money before Sony has the chance to do will put them in a much better position in terms of both exposure and profit.

I'm not worried about what kids will want for Christmas because the $600 pricetag will deter more parents than it will hardcore gamers.

[BigJim]

They're both selling out. One won't fail for the other to win. Ads don't matter if they're not advertising in the same places/methods. Ads also don't matter if there is no supply. And even in supply, Nintendo can have the upper hand if they choose to seize it. However, they predict the same 6 million units by March as Sony does. So even still, months later, they're going to be tied at best unless a freak problem reduces PS3 supplies further, or Nintendo takes the chance and ups projections.

I don't think Nintendo cares if they literally beat Sony to market. Their cutoff is Black Friday. Anytime before then is gravy.

Don't let this turn into what you wish will happen rather than what you think will happen. Nintendo's not selling 6 million units in a month. C'mon. That's their fiscal year target for heavens sakes.

[Ceric]

True if Nintendo seriously pushes that many unit in a month time I would be very surprised.  Shoot Nintendo would be very surprised.  Though most of those would have to be in Japan because they be able to come from the factory to market fastest, less shipping time.

[Spak-Spang]

Pale:  I think Melee is one of the greatest games this generation...but it wasn't what people wanted THAT holiday season...so although it sold well, in many aspects it was too little too late.  

Microsoft had already gained alot of attention with Halo and its system was becoming popular with the American gamer.  Nintendo releases Smash Brothers, and has great success, but then what came next?  

Big games sell systems.  Just look at the DS.  With every great new popular game there is a sales spike in DS sales and the game sales.  The Gamecube didn't have that success not because the big games didn't come...but because the big games didn't satisfy.  People were disappointed in Mario and Zelda, and several were unsure of Metroid Prime.

Launching the Wii early will give Nintendo a few weeks to a months time to build up hype for the system.  For people to try it out and for early adopters to allow their friends to try a new system and games.

Yes they could easily get bored with the games available and begin toward the PS3, but atleast they have already bought the system.  You have a new adopter to the system that will buy games when they appeal to them.  There is also a very easy means to combat that urge to buy a PS3 when you are bored with the Wii's launch games.  Simply have new games out around the time of the PS3 launch.

All of a sudden the choice is two or three new Wii games or a really expensive new system.  If those games are big hits and system movers, then its like you have had two launch cycles.  (Or you have had two big pushes of the system in a single quarter.)  

I think this is very doable with the games Nintendo has already shown for the Wii.  They could hold back 2-3 games for a November release date, and release the Wii mid-October with a successful lineup.  

Hell, there is a very very very very minor possibility that Nintendo could have Mario ready by late November or December for a nice big PS3 counter.

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim Don't let this turn into what you wish will happen rather than what you think will happen. Nintendo's not selling 6 million units in a month. C'mon. That's their fiscal year target for heavens sakes.

I admit that's high, but I don't think 3 million is unrealistic.

As for the subject, launching first gives incentive to the HARDCORE gamers to buy the Wii. It's very possible that we have many ex-Sony fans who were planning on buying a PS3 but could easily be lured to the Wii if it hits the market and they'd still be waiting for the PS3 launch.

Hardcore gamers are a good initial market to capture because they buy the most games, immediately causing a boost to the Wii's software tie-in ratio and giving cautious devs less of a chance to worry and more of a reason to go full speed ahead with the Wii.

All around, launching ahead of Sony will reap benefits for Nintendo.

[Spak-Spang]

It all depends on how many Nintendo can release if the system will sell out or not.

I am thinking Nintendo Wii can easily sell Nintendo DS level units at launch.  So that means IF Nintendo has 3 million units worldwide then they are selling that.  Hell, if they can get 6 million worldwide, I would expect Nintendo would get close to selling that many units.

The price is right, all we have to wait to see is if the games attract people, and if Nintendo can have enough units at launch to sell.

Actually launch early helps with this too...because it means new ships can get out to needed territories a month after launch.

(Note:  I am not predicting Nintendo to sell 6 million or even have that many units available.)  My point is that Nintendo has the potential to break sales records for a new system this year.)

[BigJim]

We can't discount the 360 either. It's not all Sony and Nintendo.

Most hardcore gamers have likely already made up their minds. One or the other, both, or all 3. The hardcore market doesn't seem to be Nintendo's long term interest anyway. If a hardcore gamer chooses Wii, I think they'll be bored/disappointed after awhile. PS3 or 360 are safer bets, despite their higher prices.

I also think people are thinking too hard. Whether they start sales in October or November, supply won't matter tremendously unless they actively move to increase it. They'll either ship early with fewer in stock, or later with more in stock. Whichever theory you subscribe to (October or November), the projection is 6 million through March either way. The debate about the best way to do it, or who buys what, is washed out by their roughly equal sales projections after the dust settles.

If you want to talk about the "quality" of the 6 million buyers, if they can only choose one, then the hardcore gamers are going to go with the hardcore platform (it's not Wii, IMO). But really, most all early adopters are hardcore in some manner.  They're going to be quite targetted buyers no matter what.

[Kairon]

Supposedly, the PS3 will ship 3 million units worldwide in this calendar year and the Wii will ship 4 million units worldwide this calender year. This from official company announcements.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com