Author Topic: First Place  (Read 11946 times)

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Offline MaryJane

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First Place
« on: March 06, 2006, 06:19:53 AM »
Unlike other topics that have some basis in fact, this one is total speculation.

Here's what I'm wondering what do you guys think (even the haters) will happen if Nintendo were to become #1 in console sales again with the revolution? Not just the effect it would have on Nintendo, but on Sony, Microsoft, and the video game community in general. What about the trickle effect? Would Nintendo being #1 with the revolution effect their handhelds at all? I'll ask one other question with the hope that it doesn't start a flame war; Is it even possible for the revolution to boost Nintendo to #1 again?  The ps3 may have it's share of problem at the moment, but there are still lots of people who can't even begin to fathom buying anything except the next playstation.

I have my own answers to these questions, but first I'd like to see what others think.  
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Offline animecyberrat

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RE:First Place
« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2006, 06:27:15 AM »
I think, and this is stretching it to some people but it what I honestly think will happen.

I beleive that Nintendo WILL be number one bt I think it will be more drastic than anybody can predict. I think it will put PS2 sales to shame.


I predict that ps3 will fall flat onits face and wont ever take off, price will be too high, rev will have more buzz, 360 will hvae betetr games, sony will start suffering more money troubles and eventulay have to file bancruptcy in part due to ps 3 failure but also because of the blu ray gamble whihc wont pay off.


Microsoft will now see sony out of they way and exit the console karket and join forces with Nintendo to make the best games ever, Sega wil re-enter the markiet with thier own system with TRUE backwards compatibility (it will be like Saturn have acat slot for SMS,Genesis, maybe 32X games) and it will have Virtual COnsole like emulators allowing it to read saturn, sega cd adn dream cast games. It will have a slightly improved controller but nobody will notice cuz they will be too busy saying they ripped it off Nintendo and it will have a true vr head set that makes it the first true vr system. BUt it wont comeout untill three years into the revs life cycle.



I honestly dont see Nintendo losing thier possition in game boyland ever but I do see them caving in and adding Cell phone features to a latter Gb just to compete with cell phone games cuz they will start affecting nintendos sales once cell phones get better than ds technology.
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Offline Ceric

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RE: First Place
« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2006, 06:33:45 AM »
If Nintendo was Number 1 we would see some price cut for things like Live but probably be a push for better exclusives.  Since Rev games shouldn't be that portable ports can not be relied on.  This would force Microsoft and Sony to bring new things to the table.  I could see Microsoft answering the call because they do first party developement.  Sony on the other hand.

Just a thought for everyone while we are on a close subject.  Did anyone notice that there is a curse in the third system?  I don't know about Atari and Neo Geo but...  Nintendo had the N64 it was there decline despite some classics.  Sega had the Sega CD or Saturn, it consider how you look at it, but both signal Sega's decline.  Sega started to work back up with the Dreamcast but not enough and Nintendo started working back up with the Cube but again not enough for this gen at least.  Now Sony is on there 3rd console in market leading position and are pushing a new more expensive media.  Sound like anyone else we know?  Though it is larger but it is still more expensive.  This might be more then just wishful thinking.  Though I do think that Microsoft really could step up to the plate.  They have some good stuff on PC.

The Edit was to make it more readable.
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Offline ShyGuy

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RE:First Place
« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2006, 06:40:26 AM »
If Nintendo is number one, I predict Tengen will make unauthorized games for the Revolution.  

Offline RiskyChris

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RE: First Place
« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2006, 06:40:36 AM »
You know, a part of me doesn't want Nintendo to become #1.  I'm really afraid that if my post is a train wreck and Sony find Nintendo to be too much of a threat, they might try to strongarm Nintendo out of the business (new handhelds, exclusives, etc.).

I can realistically see them reaching the #2 position this generation though - Japanese sales alone will be huge for the revolution.

Offline Smash_Brother

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RE: First Place
« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2006, 06:41:18 AM »
I think it's a gamble but I think it's possible.

If the Rev does for the home console what the DS did for the handheld, then game, set, match: Nintendo.
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Offline jasonditz

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RE: First Place
« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2006, 06:54:25 AM »
I don't know that Microsoft becoming #2 with a bigger market share and Nintendo and Sony swapping positions would elicit a big reaction out of them. MS is allegedly in it for the long haul, and so long as they're making progress, even if it's coming without any profitability, they're unlikely to cut and run.

As for Sony, seriously, what can they do? The company's financial state is ever worsening, Apple's eating into their consumer electronics sales, not to mention their CD sales. Microsoft's already eating into their console sales, and the PSP wasn't the world beater they were expecting (it's if anything, doing merely acceptable). If Nintendo starts kicking ass and makes the PS3 a distant third, they're completely screwed. They'll already be subsidizing their system to an impressive tune, so price cuts are probably out. They don't have any first party muscle to bring to bear. They don't have the cash to outbid Microsoft for third party exclusives, and with no market share, they're unlikely to get a lot of offers for really good exclusives anyhow.

I don't see bankrupcy just yet, but I do see corporate pulling the plug on the video games division if things turn  sour. Remember, there was talk of them pulling the plug early in the PS2's life cycle, when it's early post-launch went less than well. Then GTA3 showed up and saved it.

Offline RiskyChris

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RE: First Place
« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2006, 07:00:50 AM »
I have a strong feeling that Microsoft will deliver a huge blow to PS3 by releasing Halo 3 and pricecuts near the PS3 launch date...

Just speculation!

Offline Smash_Brother

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RE: First Place
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2006, 07:08:35 AM »
I do think that Sony will be in trouble this gen.

Basically everything which made them great last gen is gone. The head start, exclusive titles, Square...all of it isn't nailed down like it was before.

I hate to think of MS being the leader in the console market, but I'm no Sony fan either.
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Offline Ceric

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RE: First Place
« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2006, 07:12:07 AM »
I think Microsoft nows that the Halo card is a little long on the tooth.  I could see them instead either A) Something totally new or B)  Throwing done the Mechwarrior card, with affordable Joystick controller. :-)  That will be there gauntlet.  Halo 3 will either be thrown down before or after but not on.  It doesn't have the pizas.
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Offline BigJim

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RE: First Place
« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2006, 07:25:53 AM »
"What would happen IF they became #1?"

Enough people would buy the console that 3rd party support would be larger. Genres are covered considerably better as a result. We wouldn't tire and lack games to try out. I don't think that Sony or MS would necessarily react in any dramatic ways, other than to possibly immitate the controller through an accessory or something. And compete through price cuts/bundles/packages. And MS will secretly try to buy Nintendo.


"Would Nintendo being #1 with the revolution effect their handhelds at all?"

Their portable success doesn't really help their consoles, so I don't think the reverse would be true. It wouldn't hurt them, though. It helps with their brand identity and awareness. So it'd be a good thing in general. How much it affects the portables couldn't be quantified, though.


"Is it even possible for the revolution to boost Nintendo to #1 again?"

Nintendo has the resources to do just about anything they wanted to. Sony came out of nowhere and took #1 (and they were profitable to boot). Anything is possible. But I don't think it's probable. This is Nintendo's stand to become relevant again to consumers (new and old). They're brushing off the dust and making themselves noticed. I think they'll do better than GameCube, but Revolution won't take them to the top. They need to rebuild themselves. This would be a first step. I DO believe this generation will be more competitive on the whole. Not another 70/15/15 worldwide marketshare split. Sony's share will come back down to earth, but I think they'll probably still be the leader.


"I'm wondering what do you guys think (even the haters)"

There are no haters here. We love Nintendo, but we just have different opinions about strategy.  
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Offline MaryJane

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RE:First Place
« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2006, 08:13:08 AM »
For the most part I agree with bigjim, but here are my own answers just the same:

"What would happen if they became #1?"

To put it simply Nintendo would take Sony's place. No duh right? But what I mean by that is the number of third-party exclusives Sony gets would shift nicely under Nintendo's umbrella. But there's a little more to it than that. Judging by the quality (or lack thereof) of ps games, I think it would be safe to presume that Sony gives third-party developers pretty much free reign. This is not the case with Nintendo, at least not too often. With Nintendo in the number 1 position they would have the ability to dictate some guidelines for their games. Now obviously they don't want to bully developers and scare them away, but i think they'd expect more of them, and we'd all benefit. Also I would have to say that Sony would move into the number 2 position. Xbox's only sell in the U.S. and initially sony will be strong no matter what happens later. people are generally loyal when it comes to any kind of major electronics. Also I think it'd be rather difficult for sony or ms to copy the controller. Not that the controller itself would be hard to duplicate, but rather the receiver that Nintendo is using to make sure it works with all t.v's. That technology has to be pretty proprietary, as in right now it's the only way to do it. so Ninty's competitors would have a good deal of trouble going around the patent.

"Would Nintendo being #1 with the revolution effect their handhelds at all?"

I think it would. There was another thread, the revolutions last big secret. Here's what came to me while reading big jim's post. What if the one of the last secrets (hopefully not the BIG one) is that the rev will play games from every system right out of the box. this is actually just an expansion of the thought that the ds will have connectivity to the revolution. the revolution is sort of a ds for the t.v so i don't think it would be difficult. Being able to play gba and ds games on the rev will boost sales of those games as well. If someone doesn't have a need for portable gaming, then it's like hey, I can still play these awesome games and not need to buy another system. While that technically hurts the sale of the portables, the games are what counts, that's where all the money comes from, and it's also one of the ways developers decide whether or not its worth making a game. Even if it can't play every game from every system right out of the box, don't be surprised to see DS connectivity, especially since it could easily be done with wires, and sony and ms are doing it.

"Is it even possible for the revolution to boost Nintendo to #1 again?"

Anything is possible in this world. If back in the SNES days you told me that in a couple years Nintendo was going to 3rd overall in sales in the U.S, 2nd in the world, and Sega was no longer going to make consoles. I would have laughed you to scorn. But look at us now. As i mentioned before I believe Sony will be initially strong even if they later flounder. However, also as I mentioned before the Rev is sort of a DS for the t.v, and if the DS is anything to gauge by, the Rev has a good chance of becoming #1.

"I'm wondering what do you guys think (even the haters)"

I think I'm going to start making it clear when I make a tongue in cheek comment. lol. While I know there are no real haters, there are people who love to disagree. I read a lot of books, and every book is worthless without an antagonist,  if a "hater" posts, thought is stimulated, and we may surprise ourselves with the respones we come up with defending our thoughts. That's what I think anyway.  
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Offline Fro

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RE:First Place
« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2006, 01:31:37 PM »
I think first place is possible for Nintendo if things break their way.  I'm liking what I'm hearing so far with so many devs designing games around the new controller that'll likely be exclusives.   Literally any game idea, even a simple one is going to be fresh, exciting, and fun with the new controller scheme.

I really do think PS3 and 360 are going to be too high-priced for the mass-market.  I see the same old FPS CG cutscenes as "game trailers" for Sony and Microsoft's big games.  I don't see HD support being a big factor until 2009, and it's a non-issue in Europe and Japan.

I don't think Microsoft or Sony can easily copy Nintendo's controller.  Even if they release a ripoff peripheral , support will be very medicore compared to Revolution.  There's never been a console peripheral supported by dozens of games in the history of gaming.  Heck, the NES zapper was really popular and there were only about 15-20 games for it.  Even if Sony/Microsoft start bundling the revmote ripoff with their consoles, most games for their consoles won't be built around the new control scheme.

Revolution definitely seems to be picking up some steam with PS3 definitely not coming out until the fall (and maybe 2007) and Microsoft blowing the 360 launch by not having enough consoles ready.  They should "win" E3 since they've been ridiclously tight-lipped about Rev whereas Sony and Microsoft have blown their big guns last year.

Offline Ian Sane

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RE: First Place
« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2006, 02:07:51 PM »
If Nintendo was number one again they would be the most influencial company in the gaming industry.  A lot of people talk fondly about the 8-bit and 16-bit days and feel that gaming today doesn't hold up in comparison.  That's not a coincedence.  Gaming benefited from having a game company on top rather than an electronics company.

But there are a lot of "ifs".  I would love Nintendo to be on top by being Nintendo in that their games were still amazing and groundbreaking.  And I would want them to earn it by providing options and being a better console marker for developers and gamers.  Nintendo as is probably can't become number one and I don't really want them to as is.  They're too sequel-happy these days.  Nintendo in their peak didn't release annual rehashs.  They won't help the industry anymore than EA does now if they still slap Mario into any quick-buch game they can think of.  I don't think that attitude would help the industry.  And Nintendo is very restrictive.  If something (like HD or online gaming last gen) didn't interest them we wouldn't get it and that would kind of suck.  Or they be restrictive to the point of losing their spot which isn't good either.

It also would depend on why the Rev became number one.  In other words I only care if it became successful on the strength of games I like.  What if the blue ocean strategy works so well that non-gamers skewer the results.  Like the Rev "wins" because it has the highest userbase but it's userbase is 90% non-gamers and hardcore gamers have no interest in it.  In that case what difference would it make because for the hardcores Nintendo still wouldn't be their first choice?  I also wouldn't be happy if Nintendo made gaming even more mainstream than it is now to the point where games become so dumbed-down for the mainstream I'm not interested anymore.  You don't want a market leader where the main audience is a bunch of philistines.  That's enough of a problem with the PS2 and Fifty-Cent's game selling well.

It's sometimes scary to think of your favourite company becoming number one in a highly competitive market.  During the Monday night wars in wrestling I prefered the WWF and wanted them to "win".  They did and now I hate them because once they beat WCW and ECW they lost all the qualities I liked about them that made me a fan in the first place.  That relates more to no competition I suppose but it's scary.  I definately don't want to see Nintendo have too much a lead.

Offline ShyGuy

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RE: First Place
« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2006, 02:14:07 PM »
Honestly, if Nintendo takes first place, I don't see them taking more than 50% of the NA market. So if it shakes out in the US Market: Nintendo 45%, Microsoft 30%, and Sony 25% there is still gonna be a lot of competition to keep Nintendo on their toes. (Yay free-market capitalism!)

Offline jasonditz

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RE: First Place
« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2006, 03:54:03 PM »
So the PS2 has a Fifty-Cent game... They also get top notch support from KOEI, a huge library of RPGs, original Metal Gear Solid titles, and tons of other interesting 3rd party niche titles that will never see the light of day on the Gamecube. I wish we had that kind of problem.

Nongamers aren't going to go to Best Buy, see Zelda Revolution, and say "oh... can't buy that, that's for real gamers, I better get Virtua Sudoku". They're going to buy what interests them, just like the rest of us, and over time, they're going to become "real gamers" too.

Offline slacker

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RE: First Place
« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2006, 06:09:41 PM »
Nintendo can become #1 again if the rev controller is (for the most part) problem free, if the wi-fi internet strategy and implementation is executed as well as the DS's implementation, if the games are compelling and innovative enough for the general gamers, and finally, if Sony and MS screw up royally after the Rev launches.

The rev controller must work great, even with interference. It must be easy to set up, easy to calibrate, must be responsive, and accurate.  this is a great unknown from a consumer's point of view. I'm sure Nintendo worked out the issues already, so I would think this would be the last of my concern. However, we don't know how robust the controller is yet.

Nintendo's Wi-Fi strategy will play a huge part of the Revolution's success. Unlike Microsoft's implementation, the Rev can use our existing internet connection to go online and depending on the game, play online free of charge. the question becomes will 90% of games support the feature. Will Nintendo allow consumers to run game servers and invite their friends to log on to do some community gaming? Will Nintendo have a free service that gamers can go on to to play with others. If Nintendo want this thing to work extremely well, they should allow individuals to set up their own gaming server. This will get the hardcore gamers onboard immediately.  

The games must capture the gaming public's attention immediately and hold on to it. I'm sure Rev games will capture the gaming public's attention immediately, but the question remains, can it hold on to it? So far, we see no concrete gameplay mechanics. I am curious as to what's available and how deep the gameplay will go.  Nintendo must resist the temptation to throw out sparkling innovation games that would be more appropriate in a Mario Party title.  Also, unless there are a few new genres that will appear on the Rev at launch or shortly after, the Rev might not make it that far past the gate.

We all know how much Microsoft screwed up on the XBox360 launch. If they can't get enough consoles into the hands of retailers, let alone consumers,  by the time E3 comes around, they pretty much killed the XBox360 in Japan. Sony, if they don't launch in 2006 and if they don't launch the PS3 under $350, they are screwed. They will be screwed in Japan and the US.   Also, the price of their games must stay competitive with the others ($45 - $55). I do not want to pay $60-$70 games.

I think that Nintendo has a very good shot at reclaiming the title. They have a higher chance in their homeland. However, it boils down to execution and pushing the people toward their console. I don't think the Rev will have enough to be number 1 in the U.S. because U.S. gamers prefer games that are more free-roaming and deep (aka complicated games or what is on the PC). They have always prefer these types of games.  

Offline wandering

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RE: First Place
« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2006, 08:26:50 PM »
Nintendo becoming number 1, if the ds is any indication, would be fantastic. We'd wind up with more innovative, fun titles than we could buy.

Quote

Just a thought for everyone while we are on a close subject. Did anyone notice that there is a curse in the third system?

After 2 generations of success, a company will assume success is a given and do stupid things.

Nintendo thought they could push no-load-times cartridges on the marketplace. Sony is thinking they can push blue-ray on the marketplace.  
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Offline Requiem

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RE: First Place
« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2006, 02:40:45 AM »
What they need to do is return to the days of the 1 picture preview.

You know how many games I bought based on that 1 picture alone? To make it even more of a point, I ended up loving every single game. Even that 1001 games compilation.


P.S. Has anyone played that? It's f**king insanity. It had everything; from tennis to a circus game.

P.S.S That circus game was bad ass. You were a clown and had to time your movement to jump from one trampoline to a swinging rope, then land on another trampoline. Then to top it off, you had to land on a pony and dodge/jump haystacks BattleToad style.

I don't remember how long I played that compilation for. It was one of my favorite games.
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Offline jasonditz

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RE:First Place
« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2006, 08:31:01 AM »
Quote

Originally posted by: wandering
Nintendo becoming number 1, if the ds is any indication, would be fantastic. We'd wind up with more innovative, fun titles than we could buy.

Quote

Just a thought for everyone while we are on a close subject. Did anyone notice that there is a curse in the third system?

After 2 generations of success, a company will assume success is a given and do stupid things.

Nintendo thought they could push no-load-times cartridges on the marketplace. Sony is thinking they can push blue-ray on the marketplace.


Nintendo is also the first company to make it to a fifth stand-alone console system so when the revolution hits the market we're officially in uncharted territory.

Offline Smash_Brother

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RE:First Place
« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2006, 08:46:52 AM »
Quote

Like the Rev "wins" because it has the highest userbase but it's userbase is 90% non-gamers and hardcore gamers have no interest in it.


Doesn't work that way.

If the Rev becomes the highest-selling console on the market, developers will gravitate toward it, drawing the hardcore gamers to it as well.

If Nintendo sells a billion Revs to non-gamers, it's meaningless: all that matters is they sold a billion Revs.
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Offline MaryJane

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RE:First Place
« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2006, 09:18:54 AM »
I think a lot of the problems we have with the way nintendo develops their games stems directly from them being in second place. Lack of third party support means they have to develop more of their own games and that leads to rehashes. they want to sell games and they want to sell them quickly the easiest way to do that is to make games they know people will buy and most people who have a nintendo system will buy games developed by nintendo. 1. because they dont' have too much of an option and 2. because nintendo makes great games. if they're number 1 they can rely on the strong support of third parties and devote more time to originals. it would also free miyamoto out of his current role of hey put you finger in this pie and when people see it they'll buy it cuz everyone loves you. then the greatest idea man ever can go back to coming up with great ideas.

Also i don't think nintendo would turn it's back on hardcore gamers. Look at the ds. The best selling games for it so far are these so called non-games. Yet we still have mp:h coming out, plus some good looking rpg's. I do believe that we will see a boatload of non-games on the revolution, no matter how succesful, or unsuccesful it is.  
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Offline Ian Sane

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RE: First Place
« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2006, 09:28:30 AM »
"If the Rev becomes the highest-selling console on the market, developers will gravitate toward it, drawing the hardcore gamers to it as well."

You're assuming those devs will make games hardcores like.  What if things change so much that most existing devs switch to making "non-games" because that's where the money is?  It would probably be like you suggest but if Nintendo really changes the industry like they want to gaming period might change into something hardcore gamers don't like and one of both of the competitors are the only options.

Offline RiskyChris

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RE: First Place
« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2006, 10:27:59 AM »
Can you be any more pessimistic?  There will *always* be core gamers, and as long as we exist, we will receive games geared towards us.  I guarantee it (simple supply and demand...)

Offline Zach

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RE: First Place
« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2006, 10:39:03 AM »
Your asking Ian if he can be any more pessimistic???  You havent posted on these forums for very long have you?
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