Author Topic: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?  (Read 21005 times)

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Offline Smash_Brother

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What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?
« on: January 19, 2006, 07:47:27 PM »
Flash back to SW2K1 for a moment. Before Wind Waker was unveiled, Nintendo fans around the world believed that the tech demo featuring the ultra-realistic Link and Gannondorf duking it out would be the graphical style for the next LoZ game.

Then, economically speaking, Nintendo made one of the biggest mistakes I've ever seen a company make: convince thousands (likely millions) of players who were interested in buying their console to not buy it. IGN reported that, on the day of WW's unveiling, the greatest shift of players from the GC forums to the Xbox and PS2 forums occurred, with the inquiries about the PS2 and Xbox from posters who had formerly remained on the Nintendo forums doubling and tripling.

IGN is one case of this, but I have no reason to doubt that similar trends were occurring everywhere.

Now, before you get upset about me bashing WW, know that this is not what I'm here to do. I loved WW (though I'll eat my pants if Twilight Princess doesn't outsell it...), I'm only pointing out how much of an effect you can have on your market before your potential customer base has been solidified in its buying decision (ie before your and your competition's products have been released).

Flash forward to the present time.

Nintendo has rented the Kodak Theater for their pre-E3 press release (a picture, if you're curious). Obviously, they're making a big deal about the Rev and everything that comes with it, but no one rents this theater without due cause (it doesn't come cheap).

Prior to their merger with Namco, Nintendo owned a large stake in Bandai. They also owned shares of Namco. The simple bit of speculation I'm offering here is this: what would happen if Nintendo announced that, with a new controlling interest in Bandai/Namco, all next-gen and handheld games from the gaming giant are now Rev/DS exclusive? That includes Tekken, Soul Caliber, Tales, ALL of Shonin Jump and Gundam (there are many more, but those are just some of the biggest titles worth mentioning).

One might argue that it would be detrimental to Bandai/Namco if all their games were restricted to Nintendo hardware and it would...were we not in the middle of a generation change. That's the beauty of the situation: when Nintendo dropped its bomb about Wind Waker, no one had yet been locked into buying a GC so it was a terrible idea to give them incentive not to (I don't care if you liked WW or not, if you can't understand why the game would be a turnoff to the average gamer, I'm not going to try to convince you. Bottom line is that Nintendo could have used their money and money is still money, even from graphics-whores).

They could turn the same situation into their biggest blow to the PS3: revealing that a number of titles which some would have seen as a reason to BUY a PS3 into Rev exclusives, effectively changing the mind of potential buyers and convincing them to buy a Rev. The PS2 didn't win this past generation because it was better hardware or had better exclusives: it won because it was the game console for someone who wanted anything. RPGs? PS2. Sports? PS2. Action? PS2. Adventure? PS2. etc. etc. There were exclusives on the GC and Xbox which made them worth owning, but no one can deny that the PS2 won and won big by simply having the biggest game library.

Right now, Sony is going to do everything they can to push Blu-Ray (Sony's proprietary media format) into the average household. This means that support for the PS2 is probably going to be nearly nonexistent, as every game released for the PS2 instead of the PS3 is one more reason not to bring Blu-Ray into your home. The first round of PS2 games were actually PS1 games which were moved over to the PS2 in the interest of not releasing their game on a fading console. The point is, in this next round of console releases, everything resets back to zero. Releasing games on the PS2 because it has the largest userbase is no longer an issue (and like I said, Sony will do everything it can to push Blu-Ray, just like it is for UMD, and that means pushing all would-be PS2 launches to the PS3).

I know Nintendo has stated something along the lines of not being "in competition" with Sony and MS. Anyone with a simple grasp of economics knows this is impossible. Simply put, when you're competing for the money of your customers, you're competing with EVERY POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVE. Videogames are competing for the money of their customer against any and every possible alternative which their potential buyers might spend their money on: movies, music, cars, drugs, sex, etc. This defeatist attitude of "no competition" is either admission of defeat or it's a facade. I'd like to believe it's the latter. I'd like to believe that Nintendo doesn't feel it's only worthy of patronage when its would-be customers happen to have enough left over in their entertainment budgets for a Revolution game.

So yeah, it's all speculation, but in my defense, I'm speculating based on the facts which are already plain to us.
Nintendo didn't buy stock in Bandai without an intention to make use of that control. Why would they? If it's money return they want, they could invest that money in new companies like they've been doing all along and chance upon the next "Pokemon". I'm sure there's a very good reason they chose to invest in Bandai, I just think it would be great if this was it.

The announcement that many popular franchises previously thought to be PS3 exclusive will instead be Rev exclusive is damaging, but it's 100x more damaging when that announcement is made before anyone has actually made a purchasing decision regarding the PS3 or Rev. It would be identical to the WW announcement, except that it would be beneficial to Nintendo and a detriment to Sony and MS.

It's not going to happen: it's too good to be true. However, I maintain that it would likely be the most incredible move Nintendo could make when it comes to securing 3rd party support for the console and convincing potential buyers that the Rev will be the best choice when it comes time to spend their hard earned $$$.

-SB  
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Offline jasonditz

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2006, 08:02:51 PM »
Yeah, but Namco-Bandai is a multi-billion-dollar company that's involved in a lot of non-video game stuff that Nintendo probably doesn't want anything to do with. If they were going to I'd say they'd have been better off doing so before the merger and going after Namco, since Bandai's actual games tend to be mediocre.

Offline Hocotate

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2006, 01:00:49 AM »
If Nintendo got excusive Bandai/Namco, it would be like Sony getting Squaresoft back in the day. More developers would slowly make the move over to Nintendo (Konami, SE, Capcom). I think Tekken, Soul Calibur, Tales of, and all the Anime franchises would be more then enough to do such a thing.
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Offline Dirk Temporo

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2006, 02:57:33 AM »
I would have the biggest joygasm of all time.
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Offline mantidor

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2006, 03:11:29 AM »
A bit offtopic, but after people bitching so much about the suppose "promise" of realistic Zelda, which never, ever was promised at all, these people cant complain that Nintendo hasnt show anything about the Revolution graphics until theres actual game footage to show.
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Offline Bill Aurion

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?
« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2006, 03:34:29 AM »
Ninty has said time and time again they have no intention in purchasing large companies...They are only interested in tiny developers, which are not only easier to support, but are also more likely to be storing new, innovative ideas...
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Offline JonLeung

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2006, 03:54:35 AM »
I remember IGN saying earlier this week (or was it late last week) that Nintendo (in both Japan and (North) America) is publishing Namco's Baten Kaitos 2.

This is probably to keep Baten Kaitos 2 an exclusive to the GCN...even though the original is, as far as I know.  Maybe an indicator of your theory?

(Did anything come out of that deal that Nintendo, Sega, and Namco had?  That Triforce arcade hardware?  Was it used?  I'm aware of Nintendo/Sega's F-Zero AX and Nintendo/Namco's Mario Kart Arcade GP but I haven't actually seen those arcade machines around here.  Did they use the Triforce?)

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Offline Smash_Brother

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco?
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2006, 04:38:22 AM »
Read the post again. Where did I say the word "purchase"?

Nintendo doesn't need to buy anyone. They just need to have that magical 51% of the interest if they want things to happen their way. Claiming full-on ownership of a company comes with a lot of drawbacks, and while I agree that funding smaller developers with innovative ideas is a sound practice, you cannot deny the power and the presence that B/N holds in both the US and more so in Japan.

Quote

Originally posted by: Hocotate
If Nintendo got excusive Bandai/Namco, it would be like Sony getting Squaresoft back in the day. More developers would slowly make the move over to Nintendo (Konami, SE, Capcom). I think Tekken, Soul Calibur, Tales of, and all the Anime franchises would be more then enough to do such a thing.


See, this is what I feel escapes far too many people, especially Nintendo fans.

Like I said in my OP, Sony won because they had all the games. Why did they have all the games? Because after they got enough games, the rest of the developers saw the direction the flow was heading and followed suit for Sony. No one paid these developers or published their games. They just wanted to be on the console with the biggest sales and it's the PS2's gaming library which makes this a reality.

Snatching up all of the Bandai/Namco gaming franchises before the fight has even truly begun would be like pointing all of the potential developers who are undecided squarely in the Rev's direction. If enough of the "big guys" back a console, the little guys will all do the same for fear of being left out in the cold.

Why Nintendo wouldn't do this is beyond me. Unless they like being third for some reason, exclusive games are the only way to win a console war. No one is going to buy a game on the Rev because the Rev version has some moderate controller functionality which the PS3 and 360 versions do not, especially when they don't own a Rev already. They'll buy the Rev for the games they can't get anywhere else, and as the GC has shown us, Nintendo cannot produce enough games on its own to maintain a consistent flow of exclusive titles.

No one has been locked into a buying decision. Because of that, now would be the ideal time for Nintendo to pull this off, immediately changing the minds of millions of people who were previously dedicated PS3 fans.

-SB  
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Offline animecyberrat

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2006, 04:58:11 AM »
Its a very real possibility, especialy if Nintendo has healed the wounds the opened between them and Namco, remeber Namco went to Playstation 1 long before it even came out BECAUSE of thier hurt relationship with Nintendo.  

Nintendo felt the blunt of that loss durring the N64 days and it just carried over into GC, Namco decided to release some games for GC, eveb made a couple excclusives, so I see how Nintendo tried to fix the hurt relationship there, even letting namco develop some of thier own games.


Namco is a big company and they have some of the biggest names in video games, Pac-Man and Tekken are thier prime franchises but they have plenty more. I dont see Namco making games, well not too many anyways, exclusive for Nintendo unless somewhere along the lines Sony treated them as bady as Nintendo previously had.  I dont knwo how much stake Nintendo has in either compnay but Im sure it somehow was affectede by the merger. Maybe they now have major stake I dont know but its something to think about.

I think Tekken will do the job, making Tekken Exclusive to Rev will definaltey sway not only PS fans but satsify Fighting game fans who were left out on GC. I speak on thier behalf because PS2 had so many great fighitng games I always felt sick not getting any good ones on GC other than DBZ Budokai and MK DA. Timesplitters could helpa lot too especialy with the controller. Its like the only good thing about the controller so far, its a built in light gun for light gun fans.

I sure hope spmething good comes out of this/ especialy since I defiantely missed out ona  lot of game that were ps2 exclusives, Xbox exclusives didnt hurt me much I have a top of the line gaming pc and all the xbox games are on PC and in better versions. Well maybe not TJ and E 3 I cant find that game anywhere!!!








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Offline Smash_Brother

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2006, 05:03:28 AM »
Quote

Originally posted by: animecyberratIts like the only good thing about the controller so far, its a built in light gun for light gun fans.


I actually mentioned this to a friend the other day: lightgun games should be a goddamn shoe-in on the Rev because everyone who owns the system technically already owns a lightgun as well. That removes the hardware barrier right there.

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Offline ThePerm

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2006, 06:03:24 AM »
also,  light gun  games never stopped  being  fun. I think that  will be a  draw. As well as  first person  shooters.  I'v pondered  Nintendo buying bandai out as well as  Namco.  Bandai is advertiesed on  like  every single anime  show i   download,  plus they make a good  portion  of tie-ins. If  Nintendo  got controll  of  them they  would have  Japan  i n the  bag
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Offline Smash_Brother

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2006, 06:49:50 AM »
I love lightgun games. That was one of the best reasons to own a Dreamcast.

Bandai has the rights to all of Shonin jump (Naruto, One Piece, etc.) and the entire Gundam franchise. Controlling Bandai is controlling a massive part of the Japanese entertainment market, more so than it would be in the US.

If anything, Nintendo could reestablish control at home with Bandai alone. Namco is just gravy, gravy which no doubt a lot of PS2 users are looking forward to on the PS3 for their key franchises (especially RPGs).

I have to stop this, otherwise I'll get myself hyped up and be crushed with disappointment when E3 rolls around...

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Offline BlackNMild2k1

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2006, 07:41:34 AM »
With exclusive or even heavy support from namco/bandai and any sort of actual support from Squenix, then Japan is definately a lock and all major developers will follow suit, regardless of the money hats that MS will throw around.

Offline Smash_Brother

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2006, 08:40:17 AM »
I have to be honest, I expected someone to show up with a huge counterpoint which I had overlooked somewhere.

Also, I've heard the Rev will indeed have Square support, possibly even for launch.

Lemme see if I can get a link on that...

EDIT: Found it!

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Offline BlkPaladin

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2006, 11:08:29 AM »
Nintendo was the biggest outside investor before the merger but it really wasn't that much of the company. (A company like Bandai had 1000s of investors, I think their portion was under 5%.)

After the merger their portion shrinks not only because it adds investors from Namco but when a company mergers the companies either buys back or emlinates shares to cut debt loss, this is what happened to Sony's stake in Square.
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Offline JonLeung

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2006, 11:15:01 AM »
Quote

Originally posted by: Smash_Brother

Also, I've heard the Rev will indeed have Square support, possibly even for launch.

Lemme see if I can get a link on that...

EDIT: Found it!

-SB


I should've expected; another FF:CC.

While I enjoyed FF:CC more than most people did, I don't really know about these supposed DS and Rev. versions.  At least there could be an online component instead of a need-three-friends-with-GBAs thing (or one friend with a GameCube, if you think about it - based on the fact that GBA sales are probably more than four times that of the GameCube)...

I've played all the main FFs from (I)-IX.  Even the Japanese ones and the HardType version of IV, even before the recent GBA rerelease, which I'm currently replaying.  I haven't played X and above, but I would think that the "main" FFs will often be more successful than the side games.

FF VII is the most overrated game ever, but I won't deny that despite my feelings, some spin-off of that would do well to boost sales of any Nintendo system.  There's already spin-offs like FF VII: AC, BC, CC, and DC...  so why not FF VII: EC?  (And no, that's not rated "eC" for Early Childhood...)
 

Offline kirby_killer_dedede

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2006, 12:47:34 PM »
Actually...I read somewhere that the Kodak Theater is the traditional location of Nintendo's pre-E3 press conference...
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Offline Artimus

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2006, 12:59:13 PM »
Quote

Originally posted by: kirby_killer_dedede
Actually...I read somewhere that the Kodak Theater is the traditional location of Nintendo's pre-E3 press conference...


It's never been there before. It's usually in one of the E3 conference centers.

Offline Ceric

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2006, 02:46:45 PM »
I'm going to say this to have it out there.  Nintendo was a toy company to start with.  A little fun factiods is that they were the first to have plastic collectable cards.  In fact cards was one of there big things originally.  Now they are a Videogame company but that market has a very close tie in with Toys, other forms of games, and all other forms of visual Entertainment in general.  So for them it would be good if all those markets were doing well.  So it makes since for them to invest at least a portion of there profits into other companies in those related fields to, at the very least, help keep those industries alive and well.  So Nintendo having Bandia, which covers a lot of those areas, just to have Bandia makes sense as well.
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Offline Arbok

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2006, 03:55:59 PM »
Quote

Originally posted by: JonLeung
I remember IGN saying earlier this week (or was it late last week) that Nintendo (in both Japan and (North) America) is publishing Namco's Baten Kaitos 2.


Really? Great news, as I was worried if it would get a US release or not. Thrilled to hear it will.
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Offline jasonditz

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2006, 05:54:30 PM »
Quote

Originally posted by: Ceric
I'm going to say this to have it out there.  Nintendo was a toy company to start with.  A little fun factiods is that they were the first to have plastic collectable cards.  In fact cards was one of there big things originally.  Now they are a Videogame company but that market has a very close tie in with Toys, other forms of games, and all other forms of visual Entertainment in general.  So for them it would be good if all those markets were doing well.  So it makes since for them to invest at least a portion of there profits into other companies in those related fields to, at the very least, help keep those industries alive and well.  So Nintendo having Bandia, which covers a lot of those areas, just to have Bandia makes sense as well.


By the same argument, Nintendo used to own love hotels too, so buying the Playboy corporation would make sense.

Offline Smash_Brother

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2006, 06:38:13 PM »
Quote

By the same argument, Nintendo used to own love hotels too, so buying the Playboy corporation would make sense.


Well, it's arguably the most predictably solid market around: sales of sex will never decline.

Some interesting articles, note the dates:

Oct. 17th, 2003 Article 1

June 10th, 2004 Article 2

They're moving toward something. That much is clear. They've bought stock, then bought stock again. It looks doubtful that a 51% share would ever be acquirable, but Nintendo gained the stock they have now through Mattel selling theirs at the end of an agreement they had with Bandai.

I think it's entirely possible that they're waiting for more stock to "free up". When that could happen, however, is anyone's guess.

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Offline BlkPaladin

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RE: What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2006, 10:45:30 PM »
It really doesn't really mean they are moving towards something. Companys buy and sell shares as a form of investment everyday. The first invest might of had a secondary ulterior motive of influance Bandai to create some games for Nintendo, but it was primarily an investment. The second just means that it was a sound investment. Nintendo really doens't have any where near the capitol needed to take control. (Its not 51% need to have majority control, its usally about 41%)

EDIT: The reason is the company itself keeps some of its stock as reserve and only let that stock go if they need to raise money quickly for a project. Also it is only 51% if there are only two investors but with a company like bandai there are 1000s of investors. And in any vote only those that own a certain percent of the stock are allowed to vote in shareholder meetings, so it eliminates some of the stock held by causual investors. If a company owns 41% of the stock it usually has most of the stock thus there are very few other investors with voting privledges. And depending on the company the average reserve is usally 40% of the stock so in this case the balence is 41% majority, 40% Company, 19% other investors.

EDIT 2: NOTE - That is why its good when a company buys back some of its stock. It increases it reserve, helps prevent hostile take overs by a majority vote, and drives up the remain stock prices actually (in the best case senaio) making money for the company in the long run. (We had a simular discussing a while ago when Nintendo bought its own stocks back.  
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Offline kirby_killer_dedede

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2006, 06:03:57 PM »
SB, you keep referring to 51% as being the necessary amount of a company to be the majority stockholder.  You don't need more than half the company to have the most of it.  One of the links you posted said that Nintendo was the 9th largeset stockholder in Bandai with only around 4 percent (not sure if that's right, I'm saying this from memory, I saw the links a few hours ago and am too lazy to check again).  That would suggeset that the majority stock holder only has around 15-20 percent.
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Offline Smash_Brother

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RE:What if Nintendo controlled Bandai/Namco? (not bought, controlled)
« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2006, 07:35:42 PM »
Quote

Originally posted by: kirby_killer_dedede
SB, you keep referring to 51% as being the necessary amount of a company to be the majority stockholder.  You don't need more than half the company to have the most of it.  One of the links you posted said that Nintendo was the 9th largeset stockholder in Bandai with only around 4 percent (not sure if that's right, I'm saying this from memory, I saw the links a few hours ago and am too lazy to check again).  That would suggeset that the majority stock holder only has around 15-20 percent.


That's a possibility, and while I know 51% is inaccurate (though it would assure total control), it's faster to say 51% and have everyone know what I'm talking about then to have to explain.

Let's say Nintendo owned 25% of Bandai stock. It's safe to assume 20% is held by shareholders who hold percentages too insignificant to vote or to even attend shareholder meetings. That leaves 55% of the stock as "voting" shares. Nintendo would have to work rather hard to "coerce" that 55% into seeing things their way and making some/all game releases Rev/DS exclusive.

Even if Nintendo was the very largest stockholder, it doesn't guarantee anything. Like Bik pointed out, due to the dispersion of the small shareholders, 41% would likely be enough to win every vote unopposed but anything less is uncertain.

-SB
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