I find myself wavering once more. I just can't get comfortable with this concept. I've been reading waaaay too much GAF and looking back at Emily Rogers' latest ramblings. I find with each piece of information she confirms, our levels of enthusiasm (mine and hers) are at opposite ends.
Let's get down to brace tacks with this Frankenstein game machine. Nintendo calls it a home console first, but we all recognize this for what it is actually is: a portable. It's in a portable form factor. There is no denying that the meat and guts are in the tablet--therefore we're looking at mobile hardware, mobile power constraints, and mobile cooling. What we know for sure is that this is a custom Nvidia Tegra SoC and the leaked dev kits reveal a modified Tegra X1. My gut says expect an X1 in the retail package just like the retail package is likely to contain 4 GB of memory and, unfortunately, a paltry 32 GB of internal storage. I'm also seeing tweets that Nintendo is recommending developers go with 16 GB game carts.
Anyway we slice this, I'm getting serious doubts that this device will handle full ports of current X1/PS4 games let alone next year's games. For this device to have anything resembling third party success, it will come in the form of handheld, mobile, and portable support as I just don't see the latest and greatest AAA titles from anybody but Nintendo landing on this platform.
Since that's the case, I'll pick one up for $200 for the first full fledged Pokemon game that takes advantage of the hardware. Until then, I'm about ready to tell Nintendo to take a f--kin' hike. I must apologize as I take my Nintendo gaming just a little too seriously. My expectations for Nintendo do not align with their own expectations, which probably means I'm not their customer anymore. Sucks because they were making so many of the games I actually enjoyed, but today not so much anymore and for that matter none of the money sucking publishers out there are either. /ramble
I get what you are saying but I think you are missing the point entirely.
Let me try it this way. Did the GBA get current ports of PS2 games? Yes, it very much did. Were they on the same level as the PS2, no they very much weren't. People still bought them. Nintendo has conceded the home console space to Sony and Microsoft, I think they are wise to do this. As it stands there literally isn't room in the market for three consoles. So it doesn't make sense to think of this as a console. Nintendo wants to sell it as a mobile machine that is also a console. and I think that is what makes this brilliant and why it will work.
Unlike the GBA to PS2 comparison this thing will be closer in power to the competition. No it will not be current enough to do the exact same games PS4 does at the exact same level of tech, but that is the point, these will not be the exact same versions of those games they will be completely tailored to this play style.
If you look at the DS library again you will see games that were released by major third parties that snubbed even the best selling Wii. those "gamer" games that people loved that skipped the Wii still found a home on the DS. Again while the Wii U has floundered, flopped, fizzled, whatever term you want to use, the 3DS has continued to gain support from gamers and game makers alike.
What makes this this potentially so great isn't just that it could have more games from everyone, but that it will not be the exact same iteration of those games. Think of it like this, mobile games the tablet games, tend to be either watered down ports or stripped to their core game, with as much extras as you can squeeze into this. The target demographic are gamers who want to game on the go, who enjoy the mobile offerings like Pokemon, the touch based games, even those Candy Crush and Angry Birds games, who also want to sit in the living room and play a game on their TV set.
Nintendo needs to sell this to the same crowd, the same gamers, that picked up a Game Cube for the exclusives *and* a GBA for those games. That crowd is smaller than the handheld only gamers and smaller than the console only gamers. But if you combine them into one userbase, one fanbase you get a much larger number.
I recently wrote an overly enthusiastic, somewhat rushed, blog post that spells it out with some sarcasm if you can handle sarcasm please read my blog post,
here.
If you think of this thing as a home console you take on the go, it will disappoint. The gamers who want an Xbox or a PS4 are already sold on that, they aren't in the market for a Nintendo home console, that is the point. Many of them will still buy the Nintendo handheld on the side. So if you consider that, historically, the Nintendo gamer has also been the same as the Sony gamer, for many people the combination is PS console for the living room and Nintendo handheld for on the go. Sony tried to make the PSP a thing but Nintendo pushed them out of that market. This will still sell to those gamers. Why? Well because the Sony Playstation is an extension of what Nintendo started with the SNES. Despite the negative crap Perm likes to say, Playstation is more Nintendo than Nintendo sometimes. The point is most gamers flock to Playstation because it does offer them the games they expect from Nintendo, but the one thing it lacks is Nintendo 1st party games. Gamers also want those games so even the ones who do buy a Playstation still buy the Nintendo as the second console. That is what this is, the hand held console they usually buy anyways. So there is still that segment of the market.
Try to think of it like this, PS3 *AND* Wii was a thing, PS3 *AND* DS was also a thing, but PS3 + Wii + DS was less likely. PS2 + GameCube was a small market, but PS2 + GBA was not. If you think of Nintendo as an AND company they work but not AND plus. In other words most gamers will buy two machines, the home console of their choice *AND* a Nintendo machine, many will pick the handheld Nintendo over the console Nintendo but most will STILL buy a Nintendo, its the same market. Its the reason why many beg for Nintendo to go 3rd party. Now if all Nintendo is doing is making ONE machine that plays all of their games, and it follows the same pattern as the handheld, as in exclusive versions of games that fit the on the go lifestyle but feature just enough of the core game to keep you interested, it will still sell like mad. It just will.
Until this generation Nintendo's entire market share, console + handheld, has increased every generation, while the Home console market decreases the handheld typically increases enough to make up for those loses, or they remain relatively steady. By my numbers if you look at every generation there has always been a core base of about 90 million Nintendo gamers, but that number is usually split between two machines. So to the 3rd party developer its a gamble where to put the games. But a combined 90 million with a clear message and specs that developers can get behind will get the games.
Will it have the same Tomb Raider as the other two? No, I hope not, I have a PS4 for that. Most people do, or an Xbox 1. It will have its very own exclusive Tomb Raider that is tailor made for the Nintendo play style.
This didn't work as well for Wii because it wasn't just under powered, it was a whole generation behind in screen tech, as in it was SD when the entire world was HD. This will be HD, this will be powerful enough to run the mobile versions of games that companies will gamble on because their cheaper to make, this will attract the same gamers every Nintendo generation does and it will have an exclusive library that has similar games to the other two but different enough that it will be a must own for everyone, as in literally ever gamer out there is a potential customer because it serves all the bases.
The Nintendo only handheld gamer will buy this thing.
The Nintendo only console gamer will buy this thing.
The Other console + Nintendo console gamer will buy this thing.
The Other console + Nintendo handheld gamer will buy this thing.
The PC gamer + Nintendo handheld gamer will buy this thing.
The PC gamer + Nintendo console gamer will buy this thing.
Plus this has the added bonus that if it has the right apps, which I suspect it will, Amazon Prime, Netflix, Hulu, and a workable web browser, this will also steal market share from the Kindle Fire and other gaming tablet gamers as well.
This thing has the potential to sell in the 200 million numbers. Am I being overly optimistic? No, I think that what you will see is this will to everyone from past generations especially once they get their hands on the games. Will this be anyones ONLY system, sure the Nintendo only gamer who buys both the console and the handheld, which is the core userbase, that core userbase is about 55 million standard, as in Nintendo is sitting on 55 million people who will buy this no matter what, the rest only need a small push, games and a fair price.
If you look at this as a PS4 that plays PS4 level games it looks bad, it looks gimped, it looks missing features. But compare this to an iPad. Not a PS4 and iPad. That is what this is, Nintendo's iPad. THAT should have everyone more excited than this. Does the iPad support SD cards? No, it relies exclusively on usually 32GB storage and the cloud, and yet it has no trouble selling to the masses.
This solves all the problems of that. iPad is digital only so it has storage limitation, this is physical and digital. So look at it this way, if games will come on 16GB pr 32 GB cards, carts, whatever you want to call them, that eliminates the need for a hard drive to install the game, because installs fix the problem of long load times that are NOT present on card systems, so that means mandatory installs are gone.
If you think of this as a tablet, as a replacement for 3DS look at the 3DS model, the games will be smaller versions, they will have good graphics but not home console graphics, gamers will get those on PC, PS4 and Xbox 1 anyways, this machine is a gateway to the Nintendo games and the handheld exclusives that always get made, the Castlevania games that don't get released on the consoles, the Mega Man and Monster Hunter games that don't get released on consoles, also if they market this as a handheld that hooks up to the TV, they can do legal loop holes that allow console exlusives to still come to this, so say FF15 is PS4 exclusive, or whatever game take your pick, Nintendo can, and will, still get a version for the Switch as it isn't a console its a handheld, actually its a tablet so that solves all their problems.
I think the people who do see this are the ones that are excited, the ones that don't are still trying to figure out what this is.
I will predict easily 150 million total sales life time, in 5 years. It might do better but I think that is easily where it will do. This will sit in the SAME homes as PS4, PC, and XBox consoles so its not just another Nintendo home console that won't sell, its a Nintendo brand iPad that plays Mario, Pokeomon, and Monster Hunter, it WILL SELL.
If they botch this and STILL make a separate 3DS successor **** them and boycott this piece of **** and pray they go out of business because that would be a dick move, to give the gaming market EXACTLY what they have been asking for and then say nope sorry just Wii U 2.0. The people that see this as a reverse Wii U, I think, are missing a piece of the equation. Maybe I am a nut with no idea what I am talking about, who knows, but I am not looking at this as a Wii U that I can take on the go. I am looking at this as an iPad that plays Nintendo games and can turn into a Wii U or a 3DS and as long as it is priced fair its going to sell as fast as they can make them, its going to sell faster than they can make them but that's another discussion.
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