Topic: It's Already Over ...

[Bill Aurion]

"I highly doubt japanese style games will ever be really popular in North America EVER again."

Oh, then gamers think Final Fantasy is a U.S.-developed game?

And since when has the Xbox had a more diverse lineup?  Sports, racing, and random, generic hack n' slash and FPS titles, that's all I see...I mean, come on, I only have 2 Xbox titles, both which were released within the first year of the system, and nothing else...And I might get 2 titles this year...That's pretty pathetic when a single company is holding my interest in the system, and it's hardly one of the best(Tecmo)...

The same goes for my PS2...I've got Vice City, Ratchet & Clank, MGS2, and Devil May Cry, but nothing else, though the PS2 has more exclusives than any other system...Why?  Because they suck in comparison...Jak?  Crap...Sly Cooper?  Even worse...And what do I see in Sony's lineup at E3?  Gran Turismo FOUR, Jak THREE, Sly Cooper TWO, Ratchet and Clank THREE...There's hardly diversity in the industry anymore, and at least Ninty is trying to change that and put some great innovative titles onto the market(Luigi's Mansion, Pikmin, Animal Crossing)  Of course, there are people who say, "OMG GOTTA GO BUY THE NEWEST EDITION OF MADDEN!" instead of trying these new faces...Diversity means nothing if you don't support the companies that put out these great products and buy generic tripe like True Crime...End of Story...

[thecubedcanuck]

What is wrong with people like generic games? Just because you like Luigi's mannsion doesnt make someone else an idiot for hating it.  Nobody has to try those new faces if they dont want to. I for one have tried them Bill, and I didnt like them. I would much rather play true crime than Luigi's mansion or Animal crossing. What you say about MS and Sony not holding your interest is exactly what I am saying about NIN, they have nothing that is holding my interest anymore, and sales prior to NIN almost giving cubes away say that I am not alone in that regard. Then you talk about all the sequals on the PS2 but yourself cant wait for the next boring Zelda game, or pikmin 2 or AC 2. As for Madden, if you dont like it, dont play it, you are the idiot if you think anyone who likes the game cares that you think its stupid.

As for Final Fantasy, it sells simply because of its name.

In all honesty I really dont care what happens with NIN, because there are currently plenty of games on the X-box (Rainbow6) and PS2 (manhunt) that I am currently playing and enjoying. I will dictate where I spend my dollars, not you.

[Bill Aurion]

I'm not telling you what to buy, I'm asking you not to complain about Ninty's lack of diversity...I also never said that having sequels was bad, considering I'm picking up Ratchet & Clank 3 and GT4 when they come out...There is just a lack of diversity that plagues the market on ALL sides...How about reading what I said more carefully, eh?  And it just detracts from your argument when you have to flame someone who doesn't agree with you...You're just filling in the gap where you have no argument with rude comments...You're how old?

It really is kind of silly to complain about diversity when you admit to playing and liking generic games...It has nothing to do with my or your taste in games...

[thecubedcanuck]

Bill,

If I came accross as rude, I apologize. However your comments can be looked at as just as rude, thought you try to be subtle in your appraoch.
"OMG GOTTA GO BUY THE NEWEST EDITION OF MADDEN!"
"How about reading what I said more carefully, eh?" is that a shot at Canada EH?

The problem is I dont find games like GTA, manhunt, rainbow 6 and Halo to be generic. Infact I fine these games to be a lot less generic than any Nintendo title I own. I see nothing innovative abot Luigi's mansion, sunshine or WW. Maybe it is just my taste in games, or maybe itas the games, who knows and who really cares.
All I know for sure is that if things dont change, NIN will have one less customer next generation.

 

[vudu]

*yawn*  we're having this argument again?

you start a conversation you can't even finish it
you're talking a lot, but you're not saying anything
when i have nothing to say, my lips are sealed
say something once, why say it again

[Ian Sane]

"All I know for sure is that if things dont change, NIN will have one less customer next generation."

Yeah but you're only one person and there's no proof that enough people share your tastes to make it hurt Nintendo.  "I don't think Nintendo cuts it anymore" and "Most people don't think Nintendo cuts it anymore" are different statements.  And it doesn't make any sense to dislike Nintendo for not having a diverse lineup and then defend generic gaming tastes in the next post.  All three companies can be accused of releasing generic games.  Therefore one company shouldn't be given more flack for it than another company.

"As for Final Fantasy, it sells simply because of its name."

So do a lot of titles.  How does that arguement justify saying that Japanese games will never be really popular in the US again?

It bugs the f*ck out of me when someone accuses Nintendo of being generic because they release sequels (OH NO! God forbid they please the fans!) when every other company in the world does the same thing.  Nintendo took SIX YEARS to release a sequel to Super Mario 64.  Companies like Capcom and EA release sequels to their popular franchises EVERY YEAR.  Why the hell don't those companies get flack for that?  Most Nintendo sequels are released two to three years apart which seems quite acceptable to me.

[mouse_clicker]

[q/]There isn't really much that we know that differentiates the next generation hardware. Don't they all have an IBM cpu and an ATI gpu?

Not exactly- Nintendo is definitely using an IBM CPU and an ATI GPU next generation, and Microsoft is at least rumored to be using both companies as well. I don't think Sony has announced what company they'll be using for their GPU, or if they're making their own. IBM does have a hand in the PS3's CPU, but so do Sony and I believe Toshiba, so it's not exactly IBM alone.

[Coarse_Limely]

Remember kids, "analysts" and marketing executives are the devil's own handymen. Should you ever become the CEO of a large corporation, fire all said individuals and do not suffer any attempts by them to gain employment. Instead, employ people who know what the heck they're doing in the first place, and don't need anyone to tell them.  

[ThePerm]

ok lets discuss what the hardcore market is shall we.. the hardcore market is the nerdiest set of fans to play videogames..these are the fans who wait in line in the middle of night to buy their videogame sytems(well the people who will maybe hurt themselves if they don't; not the peopler who are doing it because everyone else is buying a ps2 ), are the fans who have the most games, are the fans who have the best rated games, are the fans who have the weirdest games because they offer interesting new play, these are the fans who buy the posters, the bobbleheads, the action figures...(let alone go to the blacksmith to have themself a master sword carved) thats what a hardcore fan is...its someone who is really deeply rooted into the videogame culture....

hardcore does not mean a gamer who like wrestling or drives a mean car.....  

[nolimit19]

i am tired of all this speculation. nintendo needs to go balls out to prove all these people wrong.

[mouse_clicker]

Again I have to agree with you, nolimit- while I don't think Nintendo is doing near as bad as many people make it out to be, Iwata needs to get much more agressive.

[Ian Sane]

I think the ideal strategy for Nintendo's next console is the Sega Dreamcast approach.  Okay that console died but Sega was screwed no matter what and Nintendo is not nearly in as bad of a situation.  However Sega went all out with the Sega Dreamcast.  Whether they survived or not they went out to make the Dreamcast the best console available and they did their job well.  Years after the console has fallen to the way side the fanbase for it is still strong.  People who owned one still talk fondly about the Dreamcast.  People don't talk that way about the Cube.  It's mostly regarded as "good" by Nintendo fans but ultimately a disappointment.  The Dreamcast sure as hell was not a disappointment.

The biggest hurdles Sega faced with the DC were a huge debt, non-existent advertising, and a launch between generations.  The N5 will not have two of those problems and although Nintendo kind of sucks at marketing it's not nearly as bad as that of the Dreamcast.  I think that if Nintendo goes out and sincerely tries to make the N5 the absolute best console on the market, even if it is not acknowledged as such by all, it will ultimately be better accepted by hardcore gamers and Ninendo fans and will likely be in a better position.  Nintendo did NOT try to make the Cube the best as it has been clear that the GBA has always been their main focus.  As a result it's not even well embraced by hardcore gamers and Nintendo needs to be universally loved by the hardcore to be a serious competitor.  That means with the N5 they need to have more original content, more varied content, all the genres covered, and their sequels have to be polished to perfection (something Mario Sunshine was not).

It's clear that Nintendo has no chance winning the casual market so they should aggressively target hardcore gamers because they can be quite good at appealing to those gamers when they want to.  The Cube is quite wishy-washy and doesn't really appeal to any one group strongly.  If it targets the hardcore not only will have a core group that embraces it but it also will consistently get better reviews and coverage from the gaming media.

[Tryonic Prinv]

Quote
Originally posted by: ThePerm
well heres whats gonna happen...all the video game systems are gonna be real similar...chepa ports...high power...ninty wins on fisrt party

ThePerm is right, so long as Nintendo isn't slow to the draw. If these consoles are truly launched in the same time frame, Nintendo could turn the whole war around with software. Forget about luigi's mansion and wave race - think about launching with zelda and metroid instead. The world would become sony's and microsoft's own personal hell.

The proof is there that people still go crazy for Nintendo games, they just come too damn late.  

[theRPGFreak]

What I think that will happen here is that Nintendo will fix most of the problems with what Gamecube had ,and attract casual gamers again. MC will gain more profit on XB2, and Sony will do well as well, just not by the tens of millions seing how they will NOT have a 1 year head start. By this article, they are assuming that Nintendo and MC will not change, and that the PS3 will have a 1 year lead again. The only real threat that I see in the PS3 is this whole"Cell" chip. If it is what Sony says it is, then this could be a bad day for the big N and MC.

[Jensen]

Quote
Originally posted by: theRPGFreak
The only real threat that I see in the PS3 is this whole"Cell" chip. If it is what Sony says it is, then this could be a bad day for the big N and MC.

The Cell chip thing is just massive hype (at least in relation to the ps3)...  the same thing as the 'emotion engine' hype.  And people bought into the hype.  Progress in console capabilities has always been fairly straightfoward....  the later the release date, the more power the system has.  If two systems with close release dates have different capabilities (gamecube and xbox), the more powerful machine costs more ($99 and $179 now).

Remember the stories about the ps2 being used as a supercomputer in countries where supercomputers are banned?

[mouse_clicker]

Eh, the Cell processor, at least in outside of the videogame industry, isn't a lot of hype, it truly is a very igenious and innovated chip. I just don't see how it could work in a videogame console at all- I think Sony is getting to eager to put their new toy wherever they can, and if they do end up using the Cell processor in the PS3, I think it'll end up biting them in the ass.

[vudu]

would you care to explain to the uneduated what's so great about the cell processor?  or at link to an article?  i'm fairly uninformed about the matter, other than hearing sony is spending a rediculous amount of money on the thing.

[KDR_11k]

It's a massive-multiprocessor. You can put as many as you want into a machine and increase speed a lot. Games don't support multiprocessing except for some minor stuff (Q3A had a bit of SMP support, other games can run the audio on a separate processor, etc) and use only one processor. This MIGHT change with the multiprocessor machines Sony, MS and Nintendo are putting out (DS is multiprocessor, N5 probably as well), but don't count on it. That's a big step and games programmers have almost zero experience with multiprocessor systems and will likely not take advantage of them until a few years later.
Every single Cell is supposed to be more powerful than the current consoles and there will be like 32 of 'em in a PS3. The problem is heat, massive multiprocessing, especially with fast processors, causes extreme heat and usually uses industrial cooling systems. So expect PS3s to be not nearly as powerful as claimed, about as loud as a GeForce FX (older model) and likely to melt when the room temperature rises one degree.
Sony claims the Cell will be in 45nm process, which is unlikely. They claimed the PSX was 65nm, but an analysis showed it to be manufactured in the 90nm process. They need to research the process, design the chip (which isn't supposed to complete until 2007), finalize the device and start manufacturing it. I know, Sony is as smart as a brick in this respect...

The Cell is supposed to be able to cluster (share load) over the internet, which is pure bull#### unless your internet connection has a latency at nanosecond scale. This can be done in large-scale analysis (SETI), where the results can take days, but is unacceptable for videogaming.

[Retroyoshi]

I think Sony's reasoning behind the cell to scalability.  The PS3 might just use 1 CELL processor- but they won't have to begin R&D again for a PS4.  I suppose "forward" compatibility might be a thought also.

The problem isn't processing power right now.  The only reason art looks bad in games RIGHT NOW is because of time constraints (or budget constraints).  Rasing the bar on technical power isn't going to help that at all.  This is why I'm kind of confused.  Art isn't being pushed in current games.  How is adding advanced shaders and more drawing ability going to help?  This is a little off topic- so I'll leave it at that.

However, I'm not convinced yet that the next gen is going to do well at all - at least at first.

[KDR_11k]

There are still SOME limits to what you can do in games (big crowds, anyone?), but yes, the current machines aren't fully utilized.
I doubt they could just add more cells without research, at least if they don't want it to evaporate the moment you power it up.

[oohhboy]

How come everybody is faulting the GameCube when the GC itself is a piece of techincal art in design? The problem with Nintendo's current generation has neve been about the hardware. It matches ploygon for ploygin, texture for texture to the other two consoles out. Sure the machines do have different feature sets, but Hardware is not the current issue and never was.

The problem is that the market has dirfted from wht it originally began as, a group of hardcore gamers. Now it has shifted into the mainstream as per say. But not much care has been taken in expanding this market. It is an uncontrolled mess of  crap games, hype, bad marketing, lack of comsumer direction and almost a total lack of planning for the future from most of the companies involed in this mud fight.

Sure everything looks good now with growing revenues across the board, the market now expanded to a scale which can challege other forms of entertainmant. But the direction it has been taken in is not the best for all concerned. With Sony and MS moving their way towards set-top boxes, they unknowingly bring other forms of entertainment that are in direct competition for the comsumer dollar that much closer. When set-top boxes becomes a financal reality, the gaming market would fade into a subcatagory of the entertainment station. Gaming developers, even now are somewhat unsure whether thier game would sell due to market volitlaty would be blind. Pressure from movie releases, music, TV would be a button away from games and with the lost of identity, would come ruin.

Funny thing that you guys say that developers haven't got any experience with multiple processors. Since when is a GPU not a processor? iven it dos serve a specalized funtion, therefore it does it better. There was a point where CPU power wasn't that important due to the point that AI wasn't really good and nobody really cared. But with graphics becoming a given with exceptions of developers that need a serious ass kicking, AI would become the new focus in advancement. With that you need processing power. But games being a set of serial events, the program would also be a serial set of processes. Multiple CPUs is un suited for gaming since so many variables depend on another variable that has gone before it. You fire at someone, they start dying. Cause and effect. They simply don't happen at the same time. How would the person die if the bullet hasn't reached them? Multiple processing is only really usefull for when you know what variable your going to put in next and that it is not going to be needed by the other processor. the Sega Saturn has already proven that multiple CPUs for a gaming is not a good idea.

But then the DS is a different matter. One should think of it as two sparate, but extreamly closely networked computers outputing to two different screens.

[KDR_11k]

A GPU is addressed differently from simultaneous multiprocessors (which is what the next consoles are doing). When you tell the PC to draw a triangle, it knows which part of the operation has to be done by which processor, but SMP means all processors are equal and the tasks need to be assigned dynamically.
The whole "cause-effect" stuff isn't a valid point, games have lots of individual entities, each reacting to different signals. That could be handled with multiple threads (i.e. SMP), one thread per entity. That would demand a lot from the load balancer, though. In your example, you'd have a player thread, which fires a bullet thread, which, upon impact, signals to the enemy thread "hey, you're hit!" and the enemy thread then decides its pawn must die. While all of this happens, another enemy thread might be busy running around or shooting at the player, creating additional bullet threads that are independant of the shot action above.
Basically it would be an extension of OOP, but needed additional error checking to avoid unpredictable results (e.g. the bullet gets two calls while the player gets none). They don't know how to do that error checking, though, and would apply their ways of OOP to that multithreaded program, which easily results in a desaster (as my friend found out the hard way).

[mouse_clicker]

Quote
How come everybody is faulting the GameCube when the GC itself is a piece of techincal art in design? The problem with Nintendo's current generation has neve been about the hardware. It matches ploygon for ploygin, texture for texture to the other two consoles out. Sure the machines do have different feature sets, but Hardware is not the current issue and never was.

The problem is that the market has dirfted from wht it originally began as, a group of hardcore gamers. Now it has shifted into the mainstream as per say. But not much care has been taken in expanding this market. It is an uncontrolled mess of crap games, hype, bad marketing, lack of comsumer direction and almost a total lack of planning for the future from most of the companies involed in this mud fight.

Sure everything looks good now with growing revenues across the board, the market now expanded to a scale which can challege other forms of entertainmant. But the direction it has been taken in is not the best for all concerned. With Sony and MS moving their way towards set-top boxes, they unknowingly bring other forms of entertainment that are in direct competition for the comsumer dollar that much closer. When set-top boxes becomes a financal reality, the gaming market would fade into a subcatagory of the entertainment station. Gaming developers, even now are somewhat unsure whether thier game would sell due to market volitlaty would be blind. Pressure from movie releases, music, TV would be a button away from games and with the lost of identity, would come ruin.

That was beautiful, oohhboy. Thank you.

[Oldskool]

Quote
The new consoles, expected by 2005, could have up to 1,000 times more processing power than current models and emphasise online gaming.

Is it just me, or am I thinking of the "PS9" commercial that aired when the PS2 launched?

[oohhboy]

Hahahaha. the operative word here is could. They propably have something rigged up about the size of a bus stop to get that kind of power. Pretty much the size of a unit of a super-computer. The dumb ass this is even now the processing power of PCs and what not is not a even 10x in real equivalent terms in power. Closer to that of 5x at very most, that being 1 in a million people might have one of these things. I can't see within a year that kind of drastic leap without going Star Trek. the last jump, based purel on ploygon counts in real terms from N64 to GC is only 100x. 1000x could be said for PSX to PS2 since the PSX was a lousy preformer anyway.

With GOOD games averaging 10 mil ploygon count and looking great, boosting that by a modest 100x from last generation would give 1 Billion ploygons. Dividing that by 30 frames would give you 33 Million ploygons per frame. 640 * 480 = 307200 pixels. I would say that's a bit on the over kill side. the only thing that can be really inproved here on in is not the number of ploygons, but texture resolution and effects. With all that spare power from not drawing those ploygons would be more than enough from any texture that can fit into the RAM.

They say large crowds are still a problem. Given in Pikmin and games like TA already push 100 unit to 1k per side for TA on newer machines, I would say crowd control never was really a problem, just the lack of imagination of using the crowd.

With all that excess power on tap, my guess is that Nintendo's next gameplay step I would say would be in A.I. Graphicaly, without everybody going to HDTVs or holodecks, graphically everybody is going to be equal. RAM and how is it used will be the new deciding factor in power. Ploygon counts will become meaningless, texture sizes and detail will become only limited by onboard RAM.

Tommorrow's games will be judge on A.I, detail in the enviroment, movement, control, level design, gameplay.

Detail in the enviroment you say? Whats the point of having a brick wall with immense detail when there is nothing but the brick wall. Things like trash, the wind, hair, smoke, debries, everyday things you see in the street should be there. Absoult immersion in detail, not in the graphical sense, but in the art.