Topic: It's Already Over ...

[RickPowers]

According to the BBC, Sony has already won the next generation console war.  

In a story at BBCi, it's being predicted by Informa Media Group that Sony will 30 Million PS3 units by 2010.  They put Microsoft at 10M and Nintendo at 5M in that same time frame.

Nintendo currently is in third place behind Microsoft in Europe ... but ONLY in Europe.  Nintendo is in second place worldwide.

It's highly unusual for forecasts of this nature to come this early, but much of this analysis is based on the importance of Online gaming for the immediate future, in addition to Sony's dominance in this generation.

[RickPowers]

While I will submit that it's patently ignorant to make statements like this so early, think about this.
The BBC is probably not that far from the truth.

Microsoft is already headlong into the next-gen, holding back Rare projects specifically for Xbox 2. Combined with their remarkably strong online service which will persist into the future, and Nintendo's continued insistence in not giving gamers what they've said they want, and this is a scenario that could very likely play out.

Sony making a 20M console lead is not entirely out of the question, given their dominance over the past decade, but if all of the consoles launch in the same time frame, it could end up being a battle of specs. It SHOULD be a battle of software, but the problem with that, is that the spec determine which developers are going to focus on what hardware, and if they choose to focus on the machine with the best paper numbers, as opposed to what machine will yield the best price/performance ratio, then Nintendo could be on the short end of the stick from the starting gate.

Nintendo needs to not only have a strong initial lineup from their own internal efforts, but the specs need to be compelling enough to attract developers, or this news story could end up more true than even Nintendo would want to admit.

And just a reminder ... these are just EUROPEAN numbers.  

[- NintendoFan -]

Yeah, when I first read it I thought that they were thinking alittle too far into the future.

[joshnickerson]

Yawn... was it a slow news day or something?

[mouse_clicker]

I think BBC has no clue what they're talking about- obviously they don't understand that the tables can shift entirely in this industry from generation to generation. Nintendo had a monopoly with the NES and then lost a huge chunk of their market share to Sega almost overnight. Then Sony came in, despite nobody expecting them to do much at all, nearly destroyed Sega, and took over almost the entire industry themselves. Sony could be in the opposite position next generation- the only thing BBC is basing their predictions on is the PS2's sales, but that certainly didn't boad well for Nintendo, did it? They don't understand how volatile the videogame business is.

Besides, if Sony does what they want to do with the PS3, I can't see it doing well at all.  

[vudu]

drat.  and i had such high hopes for nintendo.  guess i better start saving up for my ps3.

[Coarse_Limely]

How far a lead did they predict the N64 would have over any challengers, or weren't they in the propaganda business back then? There's still the possibility that there could be a great many problems with the ps3's design that could turn developers off. I've heard grumblings already about its multiple processors and overabundance of multimedia functions.

[Infernal Monkey]

And I predict Atari will make a smashing come-back when they relaunch their Atari Lynx in 2013, with Halo Jr. and Perfect Dark Rainbow DX. Can I work for the BBC now?

[ruby_onix]

From GameSpot

Quote
The report stirred up little new dust--it predicted Nintendo would emphasize gameplay, Microsoft would continue to target the hardcore gamer, and Sony would leverage its existing brand recognition. "Sony is set to exploit the lead it established with the PS2," the report's author Toby Scott reported.

GameSpot checked in with the Zelos Group's Billy Pidgeon about how the next-gen console wars might rage in the US market. He cautioned against any presumptuous declaration of a winner. "The current generation market leader always has an advantage going into the next generation," Pidgeon said today, "but disruptive technologies or business practices deployed by competitors can reset market shares."

American Technology Research analyst P.J. McNealy agreed with the first part of Pidgeon's assessment. "Having an installed base of 98 million original PlayStations, and having another 70-plus million and growing PS2s is a huge advantage over Microsoft, Nintendo, and anyone else who wants to enter the console market."

So, shouldn't we be hearing about how the PSP is already another NGage by now?

[Perfect Cell]

Why release a console then? Just make Microsoft and Nintendo make games for Sony? since Sony already won the next console war....

This is harldy fair at all... Nobody expected Microsoft to do this well, or Sony to dominate this generation. I wouldnt count out the big N just yet, but maybe thats because im a Nintendo fanboy

[cubedcinder128]

Another heartless attempt to give companies like Nintendo and Microsoft no place in gaming. Seriously, I can't help but think Sony has mangled the minds of these so-called gaming journalists and have them take a turn for the worse...

[RABicle]

Guys don't blame the BBC. They were just relaying a report by 'analysts' that was sent to them. They didn't go out of their way to write it themselves.

[Mario]

My wild random prediction is PS3 at 35M, and N5 at 45M by 2010.

[Chongman]

Quote
According to the report, the PS3 is expected to sell 32 million units in Europe by 2010, more than the combined sales of the Microsoft and Nintendo machines.

THIS JUST IN!! According to a report fresh of the press, Sony is introducing a brand new waffle iron, COMPLETE with online capabilities to maxmize features that a small majority of waffle users will comply to. Microsoft, never letting themselves be outdone, will also premier their own breakfast toaster, the xwaff, that comes in with built in ethernet port adjacent to the crispness setting. These two machines will compete neck and neck with performance, each one being able to cook 12 million waffles while online. But of course this war is already decided, it says so here on the report. Sony with 1 billion units by 2015 trailed by Microsoft with 3.5 million. And nintendo? Frankly they suck. thats right.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

really, i dont want to be a fanboy, i dont want to sound childish or devoted to nintendo, but WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THIS???!? A "report" which is obviously  infallable has been put out by their top notch analysts....bah! I can be an analyst too! Hmmm.....i think I'll side with the market leader....yup, sony with 10 bajillion units and nintendo with 2.4! Now pay me you fools!

it just seems dumb, no? and I have no doubt that nintendo will pull of an online plan next gen, I dont know why so many ppl whine about it so often. Like mouse clicker said, would any of us expected ps1 to trounce the 64?? what idiots!! I hate these types of "reports," they should be suied for making themselfs sound infallible.

[ThePerm]

well heres whats gonna happen...all the video game systems are gonna be real similar...chepa ports...high power...ninty wins on fisrt party

[Deguello]

"and Nintendo's continued insistence in not giving gamers what they've said they want."

I find that a fallacy.  If you are referring to online stuff.  Some might say they want it, some might say they do not want it.  So I guess the majority wins here, and I guess 90-94% of gamers don't want online because of the some 80 million or so consoles out there, only around 1.7 million want to play things online, free or otherwise.  So I guess Nintendo IS giving gamers what they want.  Now you might say something like "Give gamers an option" or something like that.  The thing is, I would rather have Nintendo not waste their time coding online data in their games to delay the game just to please 3% of the gaming population.  You may want it, but I don't, and there are more of me than there are of you.

[Ian Sane]

"Microsoft would continue to target the hardcore gamer"

I always hate this assumption that Xbox is the hardcore gamer's console.  It BY FAR has the most "casual" fanbase of them all.  All of the major sellers are extremely market friendly corporate games designed in board meetings.  The only "hardcore" games for the Xbox are Sega titles and they BOMB in sales.  Just because MS says they're for hardcore gamers doesn't mean they are.  Sorry to get off topic but I had to get that off my chest.

Anyhoo I first saw this article and I thought they were predicting that the PS2 would win the console wars to which I thought to myself "well DUH".  I just now realized it was the PS3 they were talking about.  I agree with Rick; it's too early to make a prediction like that.  The N64 was widely considered in 1996 to be the market leader.  It had it all: hardware specs that blew the sh!t out of the other consoles, the strong Nintendo brand name, exclusive support from red hot developer Rare, and the "best game of all time" as its launch title.  It seemed safe at the time to assume that the current market leader would continue to lead particularly since Nintendo had just had a resurgence in popularity thanks to Donkey Kong Country.  I thought the CD thing might bite them in the ass but my assumption was that if they lost they would lose to Sega.  I never thought that f*cking SONY would win.  They weren't even a "real" game company.

MC is right in that the console wars can change overnight.  What if Sony goes with an expensive set-box for the PS3 and MS and Nintendo have significantly cheaper consoles?  Don't you think that with a near simultaneous launch that sort of thing would affect the outcome greatly?  It seems that MS is going to try to make a profit with their next console.  Things are going to be different when they can't throw money at everything.  They're going to have a different strategy.  Plus what has Sony REALLY done this gen to keep them on top?  They had a year head start and got really lucky in that the biggest seller this generation happened to be a PS2 exclusive.  They had a pretty lazy approach this gen since they won before the other consoles were launched.  They can't keep the same approach and maintain dominance.

I think the real deciding factor this next gen will be launch.  Assuming that all three consoles launch at the same time and have virtually identical specs the first console to have an exclusive must-own killer app will win.  By the end of the first year we'll know where they all stand.

[Jensen]

Quote
The new consoles, expected by 2005, could have up to 1,000 times more processing power than current models and emphasise online gaming.

HAHAHA    1000 times......     Wow.... Sony is hyping the capabilities of the PS3 more than they did with the PS2!

There isn't really much that we know that differentiates the next generation hardware.  Don't they all have an IBM cpu and an ATI gpu?

Their reputations in this cycle are the only thing that we know that may effect their sales in the next cycle.

[Bloodworth]

I'm pretty interested in seeing if MS can continue to carry as many PC developers with a more specialized box and no hard drive.

[past pixel]

i don't believe that microsoft is already having something up there sleaves to beat ps3 u don't kno that nintendo might beat the ps3

[DevAdvocate]

I don't think that raw specs are going to matter as much for next-gen consoles in the long run. It doesn't even matter in this generation, as Sony has won out with arguably the weakest hardware of the three consoles. Microsoft, often touted as 'ahead-of-its-time' in terms of hardware and specs, is currently in third place. As for the BBCi reported prediction, those things are routinely projections of market conditions that already exist...and should be taken with more than a few grains of salt everytime. It operates in the same way as you might see 'analysts' predicting who will win the World Series this year. They usually pick the same teams that either won or came close in the previous year, and that doesn't guarantee anything. Notice that the same analysts didn't make predictions regarding sales of the PSP for 2010 versus Nintendo handhelds. No old sales numbers to project for a Sony handheld.

I don't doubt that Sony will have an early advantage (although they may be the last to launch), but it's going to be closer than 30-10-5 four years from launch. To me, the real question about the next generation is how the flow of quality titles may be effected by the higher technical specs and consumer expectations...even longer development cycles and with more delays than before? I hope not, but it's likely.  

[KDR_11k]

Sony is really smart. When just about everybody complains about how f-ing impossible it is to code for their platform they release one that's even more impossible to work with but can at least establish a "sky-net"-style system and decide to wipe out humanity. Hooray for Sony!

[nemo_83]

I can't believe a news source I trust like BBC would be the center of this BS.  There is no way to determine what mistakes or successes these three companies will make in the next gen.  They take off from the bat assuming that the mainstreme markets that Sony holds will still be around in five years.  They assume that the market will continue to grow with more powerful machines, and they say Sony and MS are aiming at the hardcore.  Sure they may seem like they are going for that market, but that market changed from what those two companies are pushing almost four years ago to something that is generally more interested in solid Japanese companies rather than blood and guts Doom/ Diablo inspired themes.  Nintendo has the strongest chance of grasping the hardcore market if they would just get their mainstreme image under control.  The next generation is a clean slate; especially with MS and Sony opting to not use backwards compatibility.  I believe whoever can grasp the minority audience of hardcores then they can lead the market.  Just like any other company who may use racial minority groups to get their mainstreme audience active.

Most know me as a pesimist who always tears down Nintendo's decisions of purple lunch boxes, but this BBC article is the kind of unfounded falsity that I hate about the media who know nothing of the market.  I always keep my fingers crossed that these articles will be proven false simply by good decisions from Nintendo and not the kind that have taken them were they are today as being percieved as a loser in third when they are actually on equal footing with Sony.

[thecubedcanuck]

"but that market changed from what those two companies are pushing almost four years ago to something that is generally more interested in solid Japanese companies rather than blood and guts Doom/ Diablo inspired themes."

I highly doubt japanese style games will ever be really popular in North America EVER again.

"Nintendo has the strongest chance of grasping the hardcore market if they would just get their mainstreme image under control. The next generation is a clean slate;"

FALSE, nintendo's image isnt going away very fast, if at all the moment, hell, it may even be getting worse.

"I believe whoever can grasp the minority audience of hardcores then they can lead the market. Just like any other company who may use racial minority groups to get their mainstreme audience active."

This is so flawed it isnt even funny. Nintendo already has the Minority. The minority translates to less sales, it is as simple as that. MArio games will NEVER be as popular as they once were, to think otherwise is just wishful thinking.

I will use myself as an example. I am an older gamer (33), who has alway owned NIN consoles, I have had every single one, this was the first generation I have owned the "others" as well.
I consider myself to be a longtime gamer, who plays often, who has the financial means to buy whatever games and consoles I desire. The way things stand at the moment, this will be my last NIN console. I hardly use it at all anymore, all of the NIN favorites I had grown up with I didnt like this generation, Zelda, Mario, all failed to meet what I was looking for. I play my X-box the most now, simply because I llike the games on it better, I love X-box live, I also love the fact many of the games are in 480P and almost all are DD5.1, letting me make the most of my TV and Stereo.
Many here will say, great, get lost. That is fine with me, but remember that I am not alone in my thoughts, and that it wouldnt be very hard to make me change my mind if NIN offered a more diverse product.

[Ian Sane]

"I highly doubt japanese style games will ever be really popular in North America EVER again."

"Ever" is a pretty long time.  After Atari crashed I don't think anyone thought that American games would ever be really popular again.  That turned out to be wrong.  Plus some Japanese games are still really popular.  Final Fantasy for example.

I also think that Mario's popularity is dependant on Nintendo's popularity.  If they ever go back to being a dominant force again so will Mario.  Plus he has managed to remain quite popular on the GBA so he's not a total non-factor.