This Year's Dreaded Six
That said, even though Sound may not be a part of this grouping this year, there are still six categories for which things are up in the air and no one is confident about who may actually win here. If anyone else is in an Oscar pool or looking to post their own picks here to compete with me then these are probably the categories that will probably be the place that makes or breaks your ballot.
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan
It's unusual that an acting category is wide open by the time the Oscars happen. Sometimes there might be a two person race but this year no one is really certain who may actually win here since most of the nominees have had a win at other award ceremonies during this years Awards season. Let's break it down a bit. Andra Day won at the Golden Globes but Globes are a small foreign press group that don't really have much mingling with the Academy voters. Day's film isn't nominated for anything else which isn't necessarily a problem. Julianne Moore won for Still Alice and that movie wasn't nominated in any other category. The difference is that Moore's win was sort of an overdue recognition of her body of work and seen as a way to give her a deserved Oscar. Day is kind of a newcomer in film and it's rare for the Best Actress award to go to a first time nominee with a scant filmography. Vanessa Kirby has been in the acting business a bit longer and in a few box office hits like Mission Impossible and Hobbs & Shaw. She's gotten more critical acclaim and notice for her role in The Crown. However, her film also is not nominated for anything else this year and the only award she's won for the role came from the Venice Film Festival when it showed there. I'd say she's also out of the running.
That makes it a three person race between Viola Davis, Francis McDormand and Carey Mulligan. Frances has won Best Actress twice. Will the Academy decide to make her a three time winner? She also is a producer for Nomadland and if that wins Best Picture then she'll already be getting another Oscar tonight. She could make history by being the first woman to win an acting award and producing award for the same film but I'm not sure if that history making potential would be enough to sway some voters who may want to spread the love around and vote for someone else to win the Best Actress Oscar. (Meryl Streep has the most acting nominations of anybody and she has two Best Actress and One Supporting Actress Oscars to show for it. Will voters give Francis three Best Actress awards when Meryl couldn't pull it off?) Frances did win at BAFTA but I'm not sure that will really translate into an Oscar win. After all, 1917 won a lot at the BAFTAs last year and then lost to Parasite at the Oscars a bunch instead. And yet, like Hopkins in The Father, McDormand's performance has a big role to play in carrying the movie as the one real main character. Obviously it was enough to help in making it the frontrunner Best Picture choice. I don't know. Maybe she gets rewarded with a third win but I'm going on the basis that more voters will select a different actress instead.
That leaves Mulligan and Davis. Davis won a few years ago in the Supporting Actress category but not for the main or Best Actress category. If Viola Davis wins here, then Ma Rainey's Black Bottom could potentially walk away with 4 Oscars which might be the same amount Nomadland wins despite the movie not being nominated in the Best Picture category which is kind of weird. Will the fact that it didn't get a Best Picture nomination cause people to vote for Mulligan instead if they are choosing amongst the two? Davis has become a big name in the past decade from her roles on TV and film. Although she does have the recent Supporting win there may be a lot of sentiment for her to get a Best Actress category win as well for all the work she's been doing up to this point since she has the most acting nominations for a Black Actress in Oscar history so far and won the SAG award which comes from other actors who make up a big portion of the Academy.
Yet, Mulligan hasn't won an Oscar yet but has had a previous nomination and has been a part of quite a few critically acclaimed films since that last nomination. She plays a role which requires her to play a character doing a lot of other acting towards other characters which may make her performance a bit more of a standout compared to Davis role. The film does take on the subject of how women are treated in society which has become a big issue in Hollywood especially since the MeToo movement. Perhaps that gives Mulligan the edge over Davis. If voters aren't voting Frances to give someone else a chance at winning then it may be they skip over Davis as well to give it to Mulligan. I'm just not sure if Mulligan is that well known or perhaps feels too distant to members of the Academy to win over Davis. After all, a lot of votes can come from those that want to vote for someone they consider a friend and Davis may have more appeal in that regard. I've decided to go with Mulligan here even if I feel I've reasoned myself more that Davis will win writing this up. I just think that she's got a role that seems very different from her previous work and is a bit more showy whereas I'm not sure Davis has done anything in Ma Rainey that might be seen that same way.
Film Editing: Sound of Metal
An interesting statistic I stumbled upon is that the winner of a Sound Mixing or Sound Editing award will usually win best Film Editing also. There are some exceptions where this differed but usually that was because the film that won Film Editing was nominated in either of the Sound categories when that difference occurred. But, on the whole, most films that won either or both of the sound awards then won Editing. The biggest exception is Hugo which won both Sound awards but lost Editing to The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo even though Tattoo lost against Hugo in the Sound awards. Right now, there seems to be a split in consensus of whether Sound of Metal or The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win here. Chicago 7 isn't nominated in the Sound category so it's within that statistic anomaly of defeating the Sound winner here because of that. As an added wrinkle, Chicago 7 did not get a Best Director nod whereas other nominees in the category of Nomadland and Promising Young Woman did. Does that mean voters think the editing carried the movie more than the directing? It's a conundrum for me but I'm going to stick with the more edits usually means a win philosophy and couple that with Sound of Metal likely winning the Sound category to make it my pick here. If Chicago 7 is going to get any Oscar this year then this could be the category it most likely does that in.
Best Original Song: Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Some years, Best Song is easy with something like Shallow being nominated. Then some years are like this year's nominees. No real frontrunner and no major celebrity musician up for nomination that the Academy may want to give an Oscar too. Most of the songs basically come around the end into the credits which the Academy doesn't usually like to reward as they prefer the winner be something more central to a film or stand out in it. Husavik comes a bit closer in that regard as it is the big song for the climax of the movie. On the other hand, I think back to like 2015 when Selma and the Lego Movie competed against each other in Best Song and the serious Selma won over the goofy Everything is Awesome. A lot of people are choosing Speak Now from One Night in Miami as the winner here since Leslie Odom Jr. is nominated for in the Best Supporting Actor category as well as in the song category. But when looking at the past few years when this has happened, there's no major precedent that the academy will award Song to a person also nominated in Acting. Mary J Blige was nominated in Supporting and Song for Mudbound but lost in both categories. Cynthia Erivo was nominated last year for Song and Best Actress but lost both. Lady Gaga won Best Song for Shallow while losing in the Best Actress category but Shallow was pretty much a radio hit and high point of A Star Is Born so its win was on its own merits and not a consolation prize. Hence, I don't think Odom has an inside track just be having the acting nomination. One other thing that has been brought up is that Diane Warren has a song nominated here and it is her 11th nomination with no previous win. Perhaps voters become aware of this and break that streak but there's no guarantee there. Thomas Newman has been nominated 15 times for Best Score and lost them all even though some thought he might finally end that streak last year with his 1917 score. So, heck to it. I'll go with Husavik on the basis that it also has a bit of an appeal in that Husavik is a real place in Iceland and the citizens there have been talking about and promoting the song and the pride they've had from it in making their hometown known to the world. Perhaps that human interest story will give it the edge to win.
Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
Oh god. The shorts. Who knows? Apparently this short has had some notice on Netflix and seen some popularity because of it. It deals with the tragedy of a school shooting so maybe it has a strong emotional effect on those who watch it. On the other hand, Burrow comes from Pixar and features animals and I always say the Academy voters seem to like animals when they vote for Animated Shorts. Maybe I will regret not sticking to that rule here.
Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers
There's a short that has Oscar Isaac starring in it which is The Letter Room. Some people think that may help it get more attention to win. Yet, most people are selecting Two Distant Strangers which is a sort of Groundhog Day story involving a black man who keeps getting shot by the same police officer. With its relevant social message, it is what most people are predicting as the winner. Last year, I ignored the semi-majority for Skin which was another short of the subject of racism and was wrong so I'll see if I've learned from that mistake by going with the short on that subject this year.
Best Documentary Short: A Concerto Is A Conversation
This is even a more unknown category. One nominee, Colette, is about the holocaust and anything on the Holocaust seems to in in these short categories so people are saying select it and I can't really disagree with it. Yet, at some point, you'd think voters would feel they've done enough on the subject. Do Not Split is a nominee about the Hong Kong protests that some think could win. Yet, Hollywood wants money from the Chinese audience for their blockbusters so perhaps they will be like the NBA and avoid any potential controversary with the Chinese government on this subject. A Love Song For Latasha is about the life of Latasha Harlins, a Black Los Angeles girl shot and killed by a convenience store owner in 1991. It's getting picked as a possible winner by some. A Concerto Is A Conversation is about a Black pianist who digs up his family’s lineage back to the Jim Crow South. It has Ava DuVernay as an executive producer on it so that may help it get some recognition with voters. And there's Hunger Ward which is about Starvation in Yemen. I don't know what will win here. Just hoping to get lucky but I may later look back and regret not choosing Colette here.