(
The list of mutineers and traitors who voted against me are as follows.
Mop it Up
Stevey
Luigidude
Insanolord
Shyguy
ejamer
TheFleece
BeautifulShy
,
I'm still weighing my options but my vote will likely go against someone listed above, since I strongly believe that both Samuses and at least half of the mafia are on this list. Da big question question of course is which of these players would be most likely to than go on to kill thatguy during da night period... Dat narrows things down quite a bit.
I don't agree with your numbers at all.
The mafia and hunters know who is on their team, right? And neither group chose to eliminate pokepal at night, despite knowing how votes were trending (and in fact turned out). Why would they all pile in on the first vote like you suggest instead of having some law low? Seems doubtful they would be that eager to act as a group on day one.
Both hunters are basically their own parties. They both operate completely independently from eachother and don't know eachother's identities.
And isn't voting out pokepal and having the Metroid randomly reassigned worse for both hunters+mafia, compared to knowing where it sits and just having to knock off the doctor to be able to safely swing by and pick it up one night, without having their name on any incriminating lists? And there is extra incentive for mafia members to not vote out pokepal early, as that would make them targets for bounty hunters as possible Metroid owners if the vote had gone through.
You aren't wrong but at the same time if the mafia had gotten it they'd be able to assign it to a player who wasn't on that vote, that way even if the one or two members that were in on the vote get picked off they still have the metroid. Since they have 4 members it would be easy for them to just have one or two players hop in the vote while the rest just sit back.
No, I don't believe your 4/8 assertion at all, and think it's aggressively off track.
It probably is a bit much but there isn't much else we can go off atm. As the game goes on we'll have more information and it will be easy to piece things together and make informed decisions but for now this is what we have to work with.
Let's be generous and assume that 3 of the 6 hunters+mafia did dive into the vote, hoping that the doctor isn't paying attention or doesn't want to use their power... That leaves a 3/8 chance of picking correctly (3/7 if you trust that I'm a townie; I am, but don't have any way to prove it) versus 3/9 if voting out someone not on your list (3/8 if you trust pokepal to be a townie).
If 2 or fewer hunters+mafia voted for pokepal yesterday, those odds flip and suddenly it becomes a better choice to vote for someone who didn't vote pokepal on day one.
So I guess it depends on how you think hunters+mafia would behave during day one voting. I don't think they would pile on the vote and then both actively choose not to hit pokepal at night; that doesn't make sense to me, but I'm pretty lousy at the game.
I don't think very many of us realized that the doctor could save someone from the vote before today. I only skimmed the rules which lead to a bunch of erronious statements on my part during day 1 and many people just don't bother reading the rules at all unless they survive a few days in.
But you actually raised a good point that I feel is worth discussing, It would make sense for Samus to try to keep me alive during the day period so they can take a shot at me at night. Given how dominant the vote against me was that wasn't really an option towards the end but there's one player whose actions during the vote yesterday are worth drawing attention to. Her name is BeautifulShy.
I had my vote on Lucario to start an entirely random vote but decided to change it later to create a tie with my ShyGuy vote. I saw thatguys post and I thought it was the best option because it would just be a matter of time before there was more hits/kills from the Mafia/Samus/Dark Samus where knowing that pokepal had the Metroid that would have been an easy target. It was a surprise that pokepal is still in the game when I opened up the Day 2 thread.
Her actions and story make sense from a townie perspective so on their own they check out but I'm going to play devil's advocate here and propose an alternative theory that I feel better explains her actions so far:
BeautifulShy is Samus.
Upon learning I had the metroid and seeing that I already was on the ropes she chose to defend me in the vote so that she could take a shot at me during the night period instead. Once the voting situation became unsalvagable she quietly modified one of her posts in the thread to include a vote against me so she'd have a shot at getting the metroid that way.
She herself said that it was a surprise that I was still alive in the day 2 thread so I don't think she realized that the Doctor could save me from the vote, which is why she instead used her hit to pick off thatguy, a player that I know for a fact that she considers quite dangerous anyways and whose vote against me would give her another shot at the Metroid.
You could argue it's a bit of a stretch but let's consider this:
- The fact that she chose not to make a new post to change her vote to one against me suggests that she did not want to draw attention to her sudden change of heart. If she were a townie she would have nothing to hide, especially since thatguy provided an excellent excuse for someone to change their vote to one against me. However, if she were Samus, I could easily see BeautifulShy being someone who would take extra precautions to hide her tracks, not realizing that it just makes her actions stand out more.
- BeautifulShy is also someone who, if she feels that players are catching on to her, tends to respond by trying to deflect blame onto other players with shaky reasoning at best, a really good example of this is her vote against Steefosaurus.
- As someone who is notorious for being a PM fiend in this game, her silence this time around, at least with me, has been deafening. I've deduced her identity early on in the past through PM conversations and Day 1 hi-jinx (specifically during the f-zero game) so I could easily see her being hesitant to interact with me if she has something to hide.
I don't know about you, but I feel like the best course of action at the moment is to
vote BeautifulShy)