Topic: Price Cuts or Game Deals coming this fall

[joeamis]

please read the whole article if you are going to respond.
FORBES

basically, some of the largest publishers in the country see price cuts and/or game deals for consoles this fall.  financial analysts that follow the industry believe a price cut in September to $149 for the Xbox/PS2 and $99 for Game Cube price is increasingly likely.  They use console sales data since May to the end of July as their main basis for this.  As we all know the tiny $20 price cut in May for PS2/XBOX happened as well.

I for one believe that if a price cut does come, it will happen later in the fall.  Most likely around November.
I also don't think each console will be cut a whole $50, and rather more like a $25 cut.
Which would make the consoles $155 PS2/XBOX, $125 GC.  What do you guys think?

Please read the full article before responding.

[kennyb27]

Well first off, I don't think GameCube will drop to 100 because it would be the same price as GBA SP which would mean a price cut for that too.  It may happen, but like you said, only $25, not $50.  Bah...I hate analysts anyway.

[DRJ]

Nintendo cant keep the GBA and GBA-SP in stock at their current prices and they are not going to cut their console to the same price as a handheld.

Sony did make a price cut, but only to get rid of its old PS2 stock. Now they are still $200 but they have a modem or something included.

M$ is still probably losing money on XBox so I doubt that they would initiate another drop. Thoo they would probably match any drop made by the other two.

Bottom line is who the hell cares if they drop their prices. I already bought one at full price, so its not like I will get a refund check in the mail from Nintendo or M$.

[ShutEye]

I'd bet on price cuts or new bundles, right before school starts. A good indication of price cuts is inventories.
The EBs in my area are really running low on PS2 hardware and I think the reason is Sony wants to drop their price.
So stores aren't ordering at their current price.

[egman]

I don't think Nintendo has much choice in the matter. Someone has already posted a news story that showed that Nintendo only shipped about 80K this year and won't resume GC production until fall. Retailers are seriously overstocked so if Nintendo doesn't make a aggressive move in the form of some major price cut or more aggressive bundling (2 games/w demo and a GB player perhaps?), they are going to have some major problems with retailers similar to the spat they had with Argos and Dixons early this year.

I willing to bet we'll likely hear something to that effect on Thursday during Nintendo press conference, or at least I hope Nintendo has it on their agenda. On top of that we really need to see something from Mario 128 and anything else Nintendo kept on wraps for E3. I'd also like to see some mention of the next Gameboy, because the PSP hype is gaining ground if you anyone hasn't notice.  

[Ryujin]

Lol...  They say console sales have dropped a third from last year...  Hmm, could it be that most people already HAVE at least one of the 3 consoles??  I only know one kid who doesn't have at least 1 of the newest systems, and I know a few who have all three, or 2....

They also say if prices don't drop that it will be a bleak christmas for hardware sales and software sales....  Possibly for hardware sales (although I'm sure many parents will still buy consoles), but that is still cuz most already have consoles.  Why would it be bad for software sales?  If no one buys a system these Christmas, they will still sell alot to CURRENT console owners, lol...

[joeamis]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ryujin
Lol...  They say console sales have dropped a third from last year...  Hmm, could it be that most people already HAVE at least one of the 3 consoles??  I only know one kid who doesn't have at least 1 of the newest systems, and I know a few who have all three, or 2....
They also say if prices don't drop that it will be a bleak christmas for hardware sales and software sales....  Possibly for hardware sales (although I'm sure many parents will still buy consoles), but that is still cuz most already have consoles.  Why would it be bad for software sales?  If no one buys a system these Christmas, they will still sell alot to CURRENT console owners, lol...

sales date for consoles has always increased for each subsequent year since release....
it would be bad for software sales because for each more console sold, that guarantees 1 more game sold for the year... (800,000 GC sold May-July= atleast 800,000 games sold in that period)
but if (1.5 million GC sold in same period that would= atleast 700,000 MORE games sold in period...)

well we would know the exact answer to this if someone could come up with total installed userbase of the Playstation one, 2.5 years after the Playstation one released AND totaled installed userbase of the Saturn 2.5 years after it released AND totaled installed userbase of the N64 1.5 years after it released and compared it to total installed userbase of the PS2 2.5 years after release and total installed userbase of the GC and XBOX 1.5 years after release, AND compared the totals from each generation.

NEED:
installed userbase of PS1, 2.5 yrs after release (end of 1997)+
installed userbase of Saturn, 2.5 yrs after release (end of 1997)+
installed userbase of N64, 1.5 yrs after release (end of 1997)
COMPARED TO
installed userbase of PS2, 2.5 yrs after release (now) +
installed userbase of GC, 1.5 yrs after release (now) +
installed userbase of XBOX, 1.5 yrs after release. (now)
(Then make a rough adjustment for the increased userbase of the videogame industry as a whole compared to what it was back in the end of the year 1997 (2.5 yrs after PS1/Saturn release, 1.5 yrs after N64 released)

getting the #'s for the current generation is easy, getting the #'s for total installed userbase of the 3 consoles at the end of 1997 wouldn't be too hard either.  If someone does this, they would gain respect from the PGC community...  

[kennyb27]

Just a note, egman, it was 800,000 GameCubes.

[Mario]

Here you go fella's

US console sales

Quick Ranking:
NES: 31.3 m
PSX - 28.7 m
N64 - 18.1 m
SNES 17.5 m
Genesis: 16.8 m
DC - 4.1 m
Saturn - 1.3 m

NES
1986 - 1.1 m
1987 - 3.0 m
1988 - 7.0 m
1989 - 9.0 m
1990 - 7.2 m
1991 - 4.0 m
Total - 31.3 m

Genesis
1990 - 0.7 m
1991 - 1.6 m
1992 - 4.0 m
1993 - 5.0 m
1994 - 4.0 m
1995 - 1.5 m
Total - 16.8 m

Saturn
1995 - 0.3 m
1996 - 0.7 m
1997 - 0.2 m
1998 - 0.1 m
Total - 1.3 m

PSX
1995 - 0.8 m
1996 - 2.3 m
1997 - 5.5 m
1998 - 8.4 m
1999 - 7.4 m
2000 - 4.3 m
Total - 28.7 m

DC

1999 - 1.5 m
2000 - 1.3 m
2001 - 1.3 m
Total - 4.1 m

N64
1996 - 2.2 m
1997 - 5.0 m
1998 - 4.6 m
1999 - 4.0 m
2000 - 2.9 m
Total - 18.1 m

SNES
1991 - 1.8 m
1992 - 5.5 m
1993 - 5.0 m
1994 - 3.7 m
1995 - 1.5 m
Total - 17.5 m

[joeamis]

ok so we have the data for PS1, Saturn, N64, at end of 1997.  I compiled the data from Marios post.

PS1 end of 1997:..... 8.6 million
Saturn end of 1997: 1.2 million
N64 end of 1997:......7.2 million
TOTAL end of 1997...17 million

ok so we're half done...

[egman]

kennyb27--Notice I said shipped, not sold. But it still looks like there is some debate about the numbers. Either way, there is some serious overstock at the moment, and if we thought shelf space for the GC sucked now, I can only imagine what will happen if this holiday doesn't deliver. Tommorrow should be interesting.

[kennyb27]

Egman, how can they sell more than they shipped?

[Grey Ninja]

Quote
Originally posted by: kennyb27
Egman, how can they sell more than they shipped?

Because the stock that was sitting in warehouses at the end of the last year.

[Ryujin]

Every pst generation consoles have sold more each quarter/year....  But you have to remember, consoles are becoming more and more mainstream...  So many already have consoles.

How many total next gen systems have been sold altogether?  I bet it's much more than this far into the consoles' lives than the past generation, and a hell of alotta more than the SNES, NES, and atari before that...

There are only so many people that are going to buy systems...  Which is one reason I think PS2 sales should be drastically decreasing in the next year or year and a half...  Every one who wants one HAS one...  And who is gonna buy the PS2 for 200 when it WAS 180 and both other consoles are less?  The only people who care about modems are hardcore fans, and they ALREADY have PS2s...

[joeamis]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ryujin

How many total next gen systems have been sold altogether?  I bet it's much more than this far into the consoles' lives than the past generation, and a hell of alotta more than the SNES, NES, and atari before that...

There are only so many people that are going to buy systems...  Which is one reason I think PS2 sales should be drastically decreasing in the next year or year and a half...  Every one who wants one HAS one...  And who is gonna buy the PS2 for 200 when it WAS 180 and both other consoles are less?  The only people who care about modems are hardcore fans, and they ALREADY have PS2s...

that's why i said: (Then make a rough adjustment for the increased userbase of the videogame industry as a whole compared to what it was back in the end of the year 1997

Sony is still selling PS2 without modem for 180, they're not going to stop this and only sell the 200 bundle with modem... that would be incredibly stupid.  Also, everyone who wants a PS2, does not have one...